Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian
The Fed pivots, but markets hold their breath

At first glance, the sharp drop in US jobless claims to 191,000, the lowest level in over three years, should have sparked optimism. Fewer Americans filing for unemployment typically signals labour market resilience, which in turn supports consumer spending and broader economic activity. Despite this positive development, market participants remained unmoved, with equities trading in narrow ranges and volatility suppressed.

This disconnect underscores a deeper uncertainty about the path ahead, particularly as monetary policy remains in flux. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s public call for a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming December FOMC meeting adds another layer to the narrative, suggesting growing political and economic pressure on the Federal Reserve to pivot toward easing. While such a move may be anticipated by some, markets appear to be holding their breath, waiting not just for confirmation of a cut, but for evidence that it will mark the start of a durable easing cycle rather than a one-off adjustment.

Equity markets reflected this indecision. The S&P 500 inched up by 0.1 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.2 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 0.1 per cent, painting a picture of consolidation rather than conviction. This sideways movement aligns with the broader implication that investors should maintain exposure to high-quality US equities while selectively exploring non-US value and mid-cap opportunities for alpha generation.

The emphasis on quality suggests that in an environment of ambiguous macro signals, investors are prioritising balance sheet strength, earnings visibility, and resilient business models. Meanwhile, the fixed-income market responded with modest yield increases. Ten-year US Treasury yields rose 3.5 basis points to 4.098 per cent, and two-year yields climbed 3.9 basis points to 3.523 per cent.

This upward move may seem counterintuitive ahead of an expected rate cut, but it likely reflects positioning shifts and the market pricing in both near-term easing and longer-term inflation or growth concerns. With spreads widening, however, bonds are regaining appeal as a defensive asset class, particularly for those looking to front-run the Fed’s pivot and lock in relatively attractive yields before they decline further.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar rebounded, but an important shift emerged in yen dynamics. The Japanese yen advanced 0.1 per cent to 155.10 against the dollar following reports that key members of Prime Minister Takaichi’s government would not oppose a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in December.

This development marks a subtle but significant shift in Japan’s policy stance, long anchored to ultra-loose monetary conditions. If the BoJ does act, even modestly, it would further narrow the yield differential between Japanese and US assets, likely fuelling additional yen strength. For global investors, this suggests a reorientation of capital flows and potential repricing of carry trades that have underpinned certain risk strategies for years.

In commodities, Brent crude rose 0.9 per cent to settle at US$63.26 per barrel, while gold held steady at US$2,407 per ounce, consolidating for a fourth consecutive day. Gold’s stability amid choppy risk sentiment reaffirms its role as a defensive hedge, especially as geopolitical uncertainties linger. Oil, meanwhile, remains hypersensitive to supply-chain disruptions and Middle East tensions, though demand concerns continue to cap its upside.

Turning to Asia, regional equities traded mixed, with Chinese markets showing signs of recovery. The rebound in China, supported by both policy expectations and valuation support, has prompted a strategic barbell approach, favouring both high-growth tech names and high-dividend, stable earners.

This duality captures the dual forces shaping China’s market: optimism over long-term innovation potential and pragmatism around near-term economic uncertainty. With US futures pointing higher, the global equity backdrop appears supportive, but the lack of strong directional momentum suggests that traders remain cautious until clearer signals emerge from next week’s labour market data.

The cryptocurrency market, however, diverged from this cautious stability, declining 1.36 per cent over the past 24 hours. This pullback encapsulates three distinct but interrelated dynamics. First, a significant leverage unwind occurred in Bitcoin markets, with US$86.78 million in liquidations, 58.98 million of which came from long positions. This surge in long squeezes, up 20 per cent from previous levels, coincided with a 4.4 per cent drop in perpetual futures open interest and elevated funding rates of plus 0.0027 per cent.

The spot-to-perpetual ratio of 0.21 further signalled an over-leveraged long bias, leaving the market vulnerable to even minor price corrections. As small dips triggered margin calls, cascading sell-offs amplified downside pressure. The Fear and Greed Index’s decline to 25, down from 27 just a day earlier, confirms a waning appetite for speculative risk.

Second, Ethereum’s much-anticipated Fusaka upgrade, launched on December 3, failed to sustain bullish momentum. Despite the technical improvement aimed at reducing transaction costs, ETH dipped 1.5 per cent as traders appeared to treat the event as a classic buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news scenario.

The upgrade itself represents a meaningful step forward for Ethereum’s scalability and user experience, but short-term market dynamics often prioritise positioning over fundamentals. With ETH’s 14-day relative strength index at 65.75, the asset remains in neutral territory, not yet oversold, but lacking immediate upside catalysts. This opens the door for further consolidation as the market digests the upgrade’s real-world impact.

Third, Binance’s announcement of a dual-CEO structure, appointing Yi He alongside Richard Teng, introduced a layer of governance uncertainty. While the move ostensibly balances innovation with compliance, markets interpreted it as a sign of internal recalibration, possibly influenced by lingering regulatory scrutiny and the indirect role of founder Changpeng Zhao.

The resulting 3.75 per cent weekly decline in BNB reflected broader concerns about platform stability and regulatory risk, which spilt over into the wider crypto ecosystem. In an environment already marked by caution, such leadership shifts can amplify bearish sentiment, particularly when they raise questions about strategic direction.

Taken together, these three forces, leverage flush, post-upgrade selloff, and governance concerns, explain the crypto market’s retreat. The rise in Bitcoin dominance to 58.7 per cent further underscores a flight to perceived safety within the digital asset space, as altcoins underperformed amid risk-off flows.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to tomorrow’s US jobs data. A strong report could rekindle the positive correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, currently at plus 0.53, by reaffirming the narrative that crypto behaves as a risk asset in a growth-friendly macro regime. Conversely, any sign of labour market weakness might accelerate the Fed’s pivot, potentially reviving demand for yield-sensitive assets, including crypto.

For now, Bitcoin’s US$3.04 trillion Fibonacci support level stands as a critical test of market resilience. In a world where macro signals are improving, but sentiment remains subdued, the path forward will hinge on whether fundamentals can finally overpower fear.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-fed-pivots-but-markets-hold-their-breath-20251205/

 

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Anndy Lian
India’s ‘back office’ reputation under threat amid rise in sophisticated cyber scams

India’s hard-won reputation as the world’s back office, built on trusted call-centre and IT services, is coming under pressure as increasingly sophisticated cyber scam networks emerge within the same digital ecosystem that underpins its outsourcing success.

A police raid late last month on a Hyderabad call centre that allegedly trained tele-callers to mimic Australian accents has sharpened those concerns, with analysts warning that organised fraud rings could erode confidence in India’s service industry.

According to local media reports, the callers had contacted Australian citizens by falsely warning that their computer systems had been hacked or compromised, then coaxed them into handing over remote access that allegedly enabled the criminals to infiltrate bank accounts.

The stolen funds were redirected to other Australian bank accounts before being transferred to India through illegal channels.

“These operations are no longer ‘old school’ crude phishing outfits, but are professional units replete with linguistic training and cross-border coordination, signalling a shift from low-skill fraud to high-sophistication social engineering ecosystems,” said Raj Kapoor, president of the India Blockchain Alliance think tank.

The manner in which the tele-callers were trained to imitate Australian accents suggested a structured fraud economy, complete with training modules and managerial oversight, he said. “This mimics the organised cyber-fraud hubs seen in Southeast Asia.”

Southeast Asia – particularly Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos – has become a global hub for cybercrime due to a convergence of weak rule of law, authoritarian protection and economic desperation.

The stakes for India to prevent such crime are higher than those for other Asian countries because of its thriving US$150 billion outsourcing industry, analysts say.

“The primary threat is reputational damage – global clients may question whether Indian service providers can adequately vet operations and prevent brand impersonation,” said Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based adviser to governments on blockchain and IT.

Fraudsters leveraging India’s cost advantages and skilled workforce for criminal enterprises created a systemic risk for legitimate businesses, he said.

Lian suggested that India introduce measures for call centres such as stringent “know your customer” procedures to verify client identities and financial profiles, and establish a centralised cybercrime intelligence to prevent such offences.

The Chinese criminal gangs behind Southeast Asia’s scam centres

Industry executives say such institutional and technological tools need to be used in tandem with joint law enforcement with other countries because the manner in which the Hyderabad-based call centre secured information about Australian citizens points to a cross-border network.

“This raises serious questions about data brokerage, leaks from private companies, and unsecured digital ecosystems where personal information is traded like a commodity,” Kapoor said.

A UN report from October 2024 estimated that financial losses from online scams targeting victims in East and Southeast Asia were between US$18 billion and US$37 billion in 2023. These operations leverage advanced technology like AI and deepfakes to exploit victims, and challenge weak legal frameworks.

According to Kapoor, cybercrime thrives because it functions like an open market, with scripts and tech tools being bought and sold.

Indian-origin cyber syndicates were increasingly plugging into transnational scam infrastructures, especially those operating out of Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and parts of Africa and the Middle East, he said.

“Indian gangs are using these global marketplaces to outsource operations, hire foreign specialists or collaborate with offshore crime-as-a-service providers.”

Experts say such cooperation allows overseas gangs to exploit India’s large labour pool while masking their own footprints.

The establishment of a sophisticated cybercrime network is a worry for India’s rapidly digitising economy. According to an Indian government report in late October, more than 86 per cent of households are now connected to the internet with the aim of easing citizen services that range from payment transactions to healthcare.

India’s Information Technology Act 2000, which serves as the bedrock of the country’s cyber law framework, is aimed at addressing offences such as impersonation and cheating through computer resources, but industry executives warn enforcing the law against sophisticated cyber criminals across the country’s vast and diverse landscape is a task fraught with challenges.

Fake call centres like the one in Hyderabad exploit regulatory gaps, digital anonymity and the ease of VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) – which enables phone calls over broadband internet – to mask their geographic origins, according to Amritraj Kaushal, an advocate in India’s Supreme Court.

“Traditional policing tools struggle against such hybrid fraud structures, which merge local recruitment with international command centres,” he said.

Indian authorities say they envision industry-led collaborative centres that would continuously monitor multiple systems and layers within the country’s complex digital ecosystem.

Niharika Karanjawala-Misra, principal associate at law firm Karanjawala and Co, said scaling up public awareness through campaigns would be key to preventing such cybercrimes.

“Once the scam has been committed, no matter how quickly and efficiently authorities act, not only is it close to impossible to recover the full amount taken fraudulently from the victims, the kingpins of such fraud operations often escape punishment, sometimes conducting the operations virtually from foreign countries,” she said.

Industry executives also called for cross-border cooperation between law enforcement agencies to boost crime prevention.

“If criminal networks can globalise, coordinate across continents, and evolve technologically in real time, why are our protective frameworks still confined within outdated borders, old laws and reactive policing?” Kapoor said.

He urged Indian authorities to upgrade their cybersecurity infrastructure against modern digital crime, or risk only firefighting against scammers.

 

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3335229/indias-back-office-reputation-under-threat-amid-rise-sophisticated-cyber-scams

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Anndy Lian
Why institutional money is flowing into crypto, even as fear grips retail

Markets held steady this week as bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut gained traction. The latest economic data painted a mixed but telling picture. Private-sector payrolls unexpectedly dropped by 32,000 in November, the steepest decline since March 2023. Initial jobless claims remained stable, pointing more to a slowdown in hiring than a wave of layoffs. At the same time, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.6, underscoring the underlying strength of the services sector, which continues to drive the US economy. Together, these signals reinforce growing expectations that the Fed will opt for a 25 basis point cut at its December meeting, setting the stage for a subtle but significant shift in market dynamics across both traditional and digital assets.

US equities responded positively, with the S&P 500 rising 0.3 per cent, the Dow Jones climbing 0.9 per cent, and the Nasdaq edging up 0.2 per cent. This modest advance reflects cautious optimism rather than exuberance. Market strategists recommend consolidation within US equities while selectively expanding exposure to non-US markets, particularly value-oriented and mid-cap segments where alpha potential remains underexploited. This global tilt acknowledges that while US large-cap tech continues to anchor portfolios, diversification beyond Silicon Valley may offer better risk-adjusted returns as monetary policy shifts.

In the fixed income space, Treasury yields declined across the curve following the weaker-than-expected ADP report. The 10-year yield settled at 4.086 per cent, down 2.3 basis points, while the two-year yield fell to 3.483 per cent, a 2.5 basis point drop. The inversion between these two benchmarks persists, though the narrowing spread signals growing confidence in near-term rate cuts. For investors, this dynamic makes high-quality fixed income increasingly attractive as a defensive asset class positioned to benefit from the onset of Fed easing. Accumulating duration now could yield meaningful capital appreciation once the pivot becomes official.

Currency markets also reflected shifting rate expectations. The US dollar weakened broadly, with EUR/USD approaching a seven-week high thanks to stronger-than-expected Eurozone data. Meanwhile, USD/JPY fell 0.4 per cent to 155.25, as speculation mounts that the Bank of Japan may hike rates as early as December. The narrowing yield differential between US and Japanese bonds supports further yen strength, potentially reversing one of the most persistent carry trades of the past two years. For global investors, this FX shift underscores the importance of hedging and currency-aware portfolio construction.

In commodities, geopolitical risk resurfaced as a price driver. Brent crude rose 0.4 per cent to US$62.67 per barrel after US-Russia negotiations failed to produce a breakthrough on ending the war in Ukraine. This underscores oil’s continued sensitivity to diplomatic developments, even amid tepid global demand. Gold, meanwhile, held steady at US$2,003 per ounce. The figure cited as US$4,203 per ounce in the prompt appears to be a typographical error. Gold’s stability signals that investors are still allocating to hedges, just not in panic mode.

Asian equities traded mixed, reflecting regional caution ahead of key US labour data. US futures pointed higher, suggesting spillover optimism. Strategists maintain an overweight position on Chinese equities but advocate a barbell approach, favouring both high-growth tech names and stable dividend payers. This reflects a pragmatic stance. China’s recovery remains fragile, but select sectors offer compelling valuations and policy tailwinds.

Turning to digital assets, the crypto market rose 1.35 per cent over the past 24 hours, extending its weekly gain to 2.69 per cent, though it remains 9.93 per cent below its 30-day peak. This performance aligns closely with broader risk sentiment but carries unique catalysts rooted in institutional adoption and product innovation.

The most significant development came from institutional validation. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, once a vocal sceptic, now frames Bitcoin as an asset of fear, a geopolitical hedge akin to gold. This rhetorical shift carries immense weight given BlackRock’s US$9 trillion in assets under management and its role as the issuer of the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF. Simultaneously, Bank of America recommended allocating up to 4 per cent of portfolios to crypto, signalling a mainstream endorsement that reduces stigma and may unlock cautious capital from traditional wealth managers and family offices. The impact is already visible. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs exceeded US$1 billion in daily volume, while Ethereum ETF assets under management climbed to US$17.8 billion. These figures suggest crypto is transitioning from speculative fringe to strategic allocation.

This institutional embrace is not uniform. Grayscale’s launch of a Chainlink ETF drew US$37 million in inflows on its debut, challenging the assumption that ETF demand is confined to Bitcoin and Ethereum. This signals a growing appetite for altcoins within regulated structures, a potential gateway for billions in institutional capital to enter the broader ecosystem. The lukewarm reception of Solana-based Dogecoin ETFs, which garnered only US$177,000 in inflows, reveals uneven adoption. Success for niche ETFs could democratise altcoin exposure, but it also risks fragmenting attention and capital, especially when Bitcoin’s market dominance stands at 58.6 per cent. The market must balance innovation with focus.

Technically, the crypto rally appears sustainable in the near term. The total market cap reclaimed the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$3.18 trillion on rising volume. The MACD indicator flipped bullish, and funding rates turned slightly positive at plus 0.0027 per cent, indicating leveraged traders are cautiously re-entering long positions. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 27 out of 100, deep in fear territory, warning that sentiment remains fragile despite price action. This disconnect suggests retail participation is still muted, and institutional flows are driving the move.

Critically, crypto’s macro correlation remains a double-edged sword. Bitcoin’s 0.65 correlation with the S&P 500 means it still behaves more like a risk asset than a true safe haven. While Fink’s asset of fear narrative gains traction, market mechanics tell a different story. Crypto rallies when equities do, and sells off during risk-off events. True decoupling would require sustained outperformance during equity drawdowns, a test not yet passed.

All eyes now turn to tonight’s US nonfarm payrolls report. A weak print would reinforce the Fed cut narrative, potentially amplifying crypto’s hedge appeal and driving further inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. A strong report could revive fears of a higher-for-longer rate regime, triggering a risk-off rotation out of speculative assets.

In sum, today’s market moves reflect a delicate equilibrium between softening labour data and resilient services activity, between dollar weakness and yen strength, between institutional crypto adoption and lingering retail fear. The Fed’s expected pivot provides a tailwind, but execution risk remains high. For crypto, the path forward hinges on sustaining ETF momentum, navigating regulatory headwinds like Citadel’s anti-DeFi lobbying, and proving its value beyond correlation. The next major data point will either validate this cautious optimism or expose its fragility.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-institutional-money-is-flowing-into-crypto-even-as-fear-grips-retail-20251204/

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Anndy Lian
Markets rally on Fed easing bets: Here’s why Crypto’s move is different

The market rally propelled by persistent expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut underscores a delicate inflexion point in global macro sentiment. Investors continue to price in a high probability of monetary easing despite lingering inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainties. This optimism has spilt over into equities, bonds, currencies, and notably, digital assets. Beneath the surface of this coordinated advance lies a complex interplay of mechanical market dynamics, institutional positioning, and technical thresholds, particularly in crypto, that suggests caution even amid apparent strength.

Equity markets reflected this cautious confidence, with US indices posting modest gains led by technology shares. The S&P 500 rose 0.3 per cent, the Dow added 0.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.6 per cent, indicating that risk appetite remains concentrated in sectors most sensitive to lower discount rates. At the same time, the yield curve tells a nuanced story.

While the 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.086 per cent, the two-year yield dropped by 2.2 basis points to 3.508 per cent, steepening the curve slightly. This signals that traders are front-running an imminent policy pivot, expecting near-term cuts without a full repricing of long-term inflation expectations. The dollar softened in response, though USD/JPY held ground as markets digested fading speculation around a December Bank of Japan rate hike. The directional bias still points toward yen appreciation as yield differentials narrow, adding further pressure on the greenback.

In this macro backdrop, the crypto market’s 6.29 per cent surge over 24 hours appears less anomalous and more like a logical extension of the broader risk-on shift. The drivers differ substantially from traditional assets. Unlike equities, which respond directly to discounted cash flows and rate expectations, crypto’s rebound was largely mechanical, fuelled by the forced unwinding of overextended short positions.

More than US$156 million in leveraged shorts were liquidated in a single day, the most since October’s volatility spike. This cascade began when Bitcoin briefly dipped to US$84,000, testing the psychological and technical floor at the 100-week simple moving average of US$86,000. That level held, triggering a classic short squeeze as traders scrambled to cover positions. The resulting vacuum sucked in fresh bids, pushing perpetual futures funding rates into positive territory at plus 0.0036 per cent, a clear signal of renewed speculative appetite.

Simultaneously, institutional activity provided a more structural underpinning to the rally, particularly in the form of XRP spot ETF inflows. On December 2 alone, US-based XRP ETFs recorded a net US$67.7 million inflow, with Grayscale’s GXRP accounting for US$45.8 million of that total. This stands out against a broader trend of altcoin outflows and persistent regulatory ambiguity surrounding Ripple’s legal standing.

The fact that institutional capital continues to accumulate XRP despite these headwinds suggests a strategic bet on eventual regulatory clarity or a broader diversification away from Bitcoin-dominant exposure. Such targeted demand helped stabilise the altcoin ecosystem during a period when broader sentiment remained fragile, as evidenced by a Fear and Greed Index reading of just 22, deep in fear territory.

Bitcoin’s price action itself warrants careful interpretation. Reclaiming the US$86,000 to US$88,000 range is significant not just because of its historical role as support, tested more than 60 times since July, but also because of what it represents structurally. It is a convergence zone where long-term holders, miners, and institutional treasuries often anchor their cost basis.

The relative strength index at 39.05, while still in oversold territory, has begun turning upward, and the MACD histogram has flipped green with a US$29 billion reading, hinting at accumulating momentum. The rally remains incomplete. A daily close above US$95,000 would be required to confirm a true reversal of the recent downtrend. Absent that, the market risks sliding back toward the US$72,000 level, where deeper liquidation clusters and lower on-chain support reside.

What is especially telling is that this rally emerged not from fresh macro catalysts or regulatory breakthroughs, but from internal market mechanics. The short squeeze cleared out weak hands, ETF inflows injected selective confidence, and technical support held just long enough to reignite speculative interest.

This combination speaks to a market in transition, one that remains highly sensitive to leverage dynamics and sentiment shifts, yet increasingly influenced by institutional flows that operate on longer time horizons. It also highlights a growing divergence. While traditional markets lean on Fed expectations as their primary narrative, crypto markets are beginning to develop their own internal logic, where on-chain activity, derivatives positioning, and ETF flows carry equal or greater weight.

Looking ahead, sustainability hinges on two factors. First, whether open interest in derivatives rebounds without reintroducing dangerous levels of leverage that could trigger another violent unwind. Second, whether ETF inflows, particularly into non-Bitcoin assets like XRP, broaden into a consistent trend rather than a one-off event. If both conditions hold, the current bounce could evolve into a more durable uptrend. If not, the market may face another round of consolidation or downside discovery, especially if the Fed’s anticipated cut fails to materialise or comes with hawkish caveats.

In conclusion, the rally across asset classes reflects a market tentatively stepping out from under the shadow of restrictive monetary policy. In crypto, the story is more intricate, a blend of technical resilience, leveraged feedback loops, and quiet institutional accumulation.

For now, the path of least resistance appears upward, but the terrain remains treacherous. Traders would do well to monitor not just price, but the underlying structure of liquidity, positioning, and capital flows that will ultimately determine whether this rally marks a turning point or merely a reprieve.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-rally-on-fed-easing-bets-heres-why-cryptos-move-is-different-20251203/

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Anndy Lian
Institutional flight, AI fears, and leverage unwind: Why crypto is crashing now

The retreat in equities and corresponding climb in yields underscore a market bracing for a pivotal Federal Reserve decision, yet the true story unfolding beneath the surface lies not just in macroeconomic indicators but in the interwoven dynamics of institutional behaviour, leveraged positioning, and emerging technological risk.

As investors parse through weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, crypto markets have become a barometer of broader risk sentiment, a sentiment now defined by extreme caution, forced deleveraging, and a growing unease about the integrity of the very infrastructure underpinning digital finance.

US equities pulled back modestly, with the Dow shedding 0.9 per cent and the Nasdaq down 0.4 per cent, but the real pressure emerged from the cryptocurrency sector, which extended its weekly losses with another 0.5 per cent decline over the last 24 hours. This pullback occurred against the backdrop of US$3.48 billion in net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs in November, the largest monthly redemption since February. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for US$2.34 billion of that total, a stark signal of institutional risk aversion.

These outflows are not merely passive portfolio adjustments. They translate directly into selling pressure on Bitcoin’s spot market, as ETF issuers must liquidate BTC holdings to meet redemptions. In a market already sensitive to macro headwinds, this institutional exodus has acted as a powerful accelerant to downside momentum, reinforcing the correlation between traditional risk assets and crypto that has solidified over the past year.

Compounding this institutional pullback is a wave of forced deleveraging in the derivatives market. In just 24 hours, US$235 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated, with an overwhelming 82 per cent of those coming from long positions. This long squeeze, which saw open interest decline by 2.5 per cent, reflects a classic feedback loop. Price declines trigger margin calls, which force leveraged traders to sell, which drives prices lower still. The result is a cascade that not only pushes Bitcoin below key technical levels, such as the critical 85,000 dollar psychological support, but drags the broader altcoin market down with it.

The volatility generated by this dynamic has deepened investor anxiety, pushing the Fear and Greed Index to a mere 16 out of 100, a reading firmly in extreme fear territory. Historically, such levels have often coincided with market bottoms, but the current environment presents a more complex picture due to structural shifts in market composition and new vectors of systemic risk.

Among those emerging risks is the spectre of AI-driven exploits in decentralised finance. Recent research from Anthropic demonstrated that AI agents, operating in simulated environments, could identify and exploit vulnerabilities in smart contracts to extract US$4.6 million in value. While these experiments occurred in sandboxed conditions and did not affect live protocols, the implications sent ripples through the crypto community. The fear is not that AI has already breached live systems, but that the automation of exploit discovery could drastically lower the barrier to entry for malicious actors.

Projects with unaudited or poorly vetted code, still distressingly common in the DeFi space, could become low-hanging fruit for increasingly sophisticated AI tools. This concern, though speculative in its immediate impact, contributes to a broader reassessment of risk in the sector, particularly among institutional participants who prioritise regulatory and security compliance. It adds another layer to the current bearish sentiment, not as a primary driver of price action but as a background anxiety that discourages fresh capital deployment.

Meanwhile, macro conditions continue to shape the investment landscape. The ISM Manufacturing PMI’s drop to a four-month low reinforces concerns that tariffs and global trade friction remain a drag on industrial activity. While this would typically bolster the case for Fed rate cuts, the simultaneous rise in US Treasury yields, with 10-year yields climbing to 4.096 per cent and two-year yields to 3.537 per cent, suggests markets are also pricing in a more resilient economic outlook for 2026. This duality creates tension.

Weaker near-term data support easing, but stronger forward expectations could limit the pace of cuts. In this context, the Fed’s anticipated 25 basis point cut in December appears increasingly certain, yet investors remain wary of overextending into risk assets ahead of the actual announcement.

Global currency markets reflect similar recalibration. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar as expectations for a December Bank of Japan rate hike returned to the fore, pushing 10-year JGB yields up by six basis points to 1.86 per cent.

This narrowing of the yield differential between US and Japanese debt supports further yen appreciation, which could influence capital flows into and out of Asian markets. In China, equities rose despite poor November PMI data, as investors bet on imminent fiscal or monetary stimulus, a classic bad news is good news reaction in a market starved for policy support. This divergence between fundamentals and sentiment underscores the fragile nature of the current rally in Chinese assets, which remains contingent on government intervention rather than organic growth.

In the commodities space, Brent crude rose one per cent to US$63.30 per barrel, remaining sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East and to OPEC+ supply discipline. Gold, trading flat at US$2,340 per ounce, continues to serve as a defensive hedge, though its lack of momentum suggests investors are not yet rushing into traditional safe havens. Instead, capital appears to be moving toward quality fixed income, as UST spreads widen and bonds become more attractive ahead of expected Fed easing.

All these threads converge on a central question. Is the current pessimism in crypto markets a contrarian signal or the beginning of a deeper correction? The trifecta of ETF outflows, leveraged long unwinds, and AI-related security fears has created a perfect storm of negative sentiment. History suggests that extreme fear often marks exhaustion points.

The key variables to watch are whether Bitcoin can stabilise above US$85,000 and whether ETF flows reverse in December, particularly in light of Vanguard’s recent move to grant its clients access to crypto ETFs. This development could reignite institutional interest. If outflows slow or turn positive, and if macro conditions align with a dovish Fed pivot, the stage could be set for a relief rally.

Until then, the market remains caught between technical support, macro uncertainty, and the lingering shadow of new technological risks that challenge the foundational trust assumptions of decentralised systems.

 

Source: https://e27.co/institutional-flight-ai-fears-and-leverage-unwind-why-crypto-is-crashing-now-20251202/

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Anndy Lian
Green dots and red alarms: How a US$3M hack and strategy’s cryptic tweet sent crypto into a tailspin

The crypto market’s 3.89 per cent decline over the past 24 hours marks a sharp continuation of November’s bearish momentum, carrying a cascade of negative sentiment into the final month of a volatile year. This downturn is not driven by a single catalyst but by a confluence of distinct yet interrelated pressures: technical vulnerabilities in DeFi infrastructure, a violent unwinding of leveraged positions, and a pronounced psychological flight to perceived safety. Together, these forces have reshaped market dynamics in ways that signal deepening caution among participants, especially as institutional and macro-level uncertainties intensify.

The immediate trigger stems from a security breach at Yearn Finance, a protocol long regarded as a cornerstone of the DeFi ecosystem. Attackers exploited a flaw in the yETH liquidity pool, enabling what amounted to an infinite minting attack that drained approximately US$3 million worth of ETH before the funds were routed through Tornado Cash. While the absolute figure may seem modest compared to other exploits, the symbolic weight is heavy. This incident arrives on the heels of a brutal November for crypto security, during which protocols lost an estimated US$127 million to hacks, scams, and exploits according to CertiK.

The cumulative erosion of trust in smart contract integrity poses a fundamental challenge to the narrative of institutional readiness. As DeFi valuations have climbed alongside broader market optimism, the recurrence of such high-profile vulnerabilities exposes a critical gap between market capitalisation and foundational security. For investors increasingly focused on risk-adjusted returns, these events serve as stark reminders that code, not just consensus, remains a fragile link in the value chain.

Compounding this technical vulnerability is a self-reinforcing deleveraging cycle that has gripped the derivatives market. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin liquidations totalled US$16 million, with short positions alone accounting for a dramatic 410 per cent spike. This surge in short-side liquidations, often triggered as prices fall below key support levels like US$90,000, creates a feedback loop where forced selling pushes prices lower, triggering even more margin calls. The shift is also evident in perpetual futures markets, where funding rates have turned negative at a rate of -0.0019 per cent, a clear signal of prevailing bearish sentiment.

Altcoins have borne the brunt even more severely, with open interest collapsing by 41.65 per cent as leveraged longs were swiftly liquidated. This mechanical sell-off, detached from fundamental news, illustrates how market structure itself can amplify volatility. The situation becomes even more precarious with today’s US$200 billion options expiry looming, particularly given the concentration of large put options at the US$90,000 strike, a potential magnet for further downside price action if liquidity pools are thin or skewed.

In response to this dual pressure of security risk and leverage-driven panic, market participants have executed a classic risk-off rotation. Bitcoin dominance has ascended to 58.75 per cent, its highest level in months, while the Altcoin Season Index has plunged to a meagre 24. This index, which measures the percentage of top altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day window, confirms that speculative capital has fled peripheral assets in favour of the perceived safety of the original cryptocurrency. The retreat is further validated by the CMC Fear and Greed Index, which now sits firmly in Extreme Fear territory at 20.

This psychological state is also reflected in the traditional finance corridor of the crypto market, where spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant monthly outflows totalling US$3.79 billion in November alone. The US$122.5 billion monthly outflow figure cited in the prompt appears to be a substantial overstatement compared to available data, which consistently points to outflows in the single-digit billions for November. Regardless of the precise magnitude, the directional trend is undeniable: investors are moving from risk assets back into cash or the relative stability of Bitcoin, prioritising capital preservation over yield or speculative gains.

This backdrop of fear and deleveraging makes the latest communication from Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin with nearly 650,000 BTC, all the more significant and unsettling. For over a year, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has maintained a weekly ritual on X, posting a chart adorned with orange dots to signal an impending Bitcoin purchase.

This Sunday’s post, however, broke the pattern with a simple, provocative question: What if we start adding green dots? The ambiguity of this change has sent shockwaves through a community already on edge. While some optimistically speculate that green dots could represent stock buybacks or other balance sheet manoeuvres, the more alarming interpretation is that it might foreshadow the unthinkable: a sale of Bitcoin.

This fear is not baseless. In a recent podcast, Strategy CEO Phong Le explicitly outlined a contingency plan that directly contradicts Saylor’s long-standing never sell mantra. Le stated that if the company’s market-to-net asset value ratio falls below one and it cannot raise new capital, it would consider selling Bitcoin to fund its perpetual preferred equity dividends. This is a critical admission.

Strategy’s stock price has already crumbled, down 41 per cent year-to-date and roughly 70 per cent from its all-time high. This steep decline has crippled its primary mechanism for acquiring more Bitcoin, issuing new common stock, forcing it to rely on preferred share offerings, a move that has drawn criticism for potentially diluting common shareholders. The company’s market capitalisation has even fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, a stark market judgment on its business model.

The green dots are not a playful tease but a potential distress signal. For a market already reeling from a DeFi hack and a leverage spiral, the prospect that its most vocal and significant corporate Bitcoin holder might become a seller is a profound psychological blow. It would not just be a liquidity event but a narrative one, shattering a core tenet of the HODL philosophy that has underpinned much of the long-term bullish sentiment.

The market’s current state of extreme fear suggests it is in no position to absorb such a fundamental shift in expectations. The confluence of technical vulnerability, mechanical selling, and now a potential reversal in institutional conviction creates a precarious environment as December begins, where trust, both in code and in corporate policy, is the scarcest and most valuable asset of all.

 

Source: https://e27.co/green-dots-and-red-alarms-how-a-us3m-hack-and-strategys-cryptic-tweet-sent-crypto-into-a-tailspin-20251201/

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Anndy Lian advocates using BNB for animal shelter support

Anndy Lian has announced a donation to a private animal shelter in Xian, China. This contribution is facilitated using BNB, underscoring his support for the cryptocurrency.

Lian expressed gratitude towards the team at Blockcastcc, Redecentralise, Jenny Zheng, AnndyFund, and a collaborator, Noel, for their efforts. Additionally, he acknowledged a typographical error in a prior post, encouraging others to join in using BNB.

 

 

Lian’s recent philanthropic gesture highlights not only the growing influence of cryptocurrency in charitable giving but also mirrors trends seen during periods of heightened market uncertainty. Earlier, similar shifts in crypto user behavior were evident when MEXC faced frozen withdrawals and declining trading volumes, prompting a reevaluation of digital asset reliability. Additionally, as underlying market liquidity remains a decisive factor for both trading and philanthropy, Lian’s perspective on the approaching liquidity crisis offers further context to this latest donation, underscoring the interconnected nature of crypto markets and broader economic developments.

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/953496-bnb-animal-shelter/

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Crypto’s triple threat: Exchange hack, technical rejection, and Fed policy fog

The crypto market’s 1.24 per cent decline over the past 24 hours reflects a convergence of distinct yet interlocking pressures: security vulnerabilities, technical resistance, and macroeconomic ambiguity. All of this unfolds against the backdrop of a quiet US holiday week. While the broader seven-day trend remains in positive territory at plus 4.26 per cent, the short-term retracement underscores the fragility of risk sentiment in an environment where liquidity thins, correlations tighten, and geopolitical shocks reverberate through digital asset markets with amplified force.

This week’s bearish tilt lies in the Upbit hack, a stark reminder that even regulated, institutionally backed exchanges remain high-value targets for sophisticated threat actors. On November 27, South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency platform confirmed a theft of US$30.4 million in digital assets, with early forensic evidence pointing squarely to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. This attribution carries weight not only because of its geopolitical implications but also due to the group’s notorious track record of targeting crypto infrastructure to fund regime activities.

The market’s immediate reaction, a plunge into Extreme Fear as measured by the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 20, demonstrates how legacy concerns about custody and exchange security continue to haunt an asset class striving for mainstream legitimacy. Investors responded by rotating capital toward perceived safe havens within the crypto universe, notably Bitcoin, whose dominance rose to 58.61 per cent. This flight to relative stability highlights a recurring pattern. When trust in centralised intermediaries erodes, decentralised base-layer assets often benefit, even if only temporarily.

Compounding this security-driven caution was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure. For days, US$92,000 had served as a critical psychological and structural resistance level. The failure to sustain a breakout above this threshold triggered a cascade of algorithmic sell orders, resulting in US$20.41 million in liquidations, predominantly short positions caught off guard by the initial dip but unable to recover as momentum faded. Technical indicators further reinforced the bearish undertone. While the 14-day RSI at 42.63 remains technically neutral, it shows a clear loss of upward momentum, slipping from overbought territory earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram, though still positive at plus 20.24 billion, presents a troubling divergence. Price action contradicts the bullish signal implied by the indicator, suggesting a weakening of buyers’ conviction. Compounding the issue, derivatives open interest fell by nearly 5 per cent, signalling that leveraged traders are stepping back, a classic sign of risk aversion ahead of major macroeconomic events.

This brings us to the third pillar of today’s market dynamics: macro correlation and policy uncertainty. Despite the US equity markets being closed for Thanksgiving, crypto did not trade in isolation. Its seven-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100, measured via the QQQ ETF, has surged to an unusually tight 0.92. This near-perfect linkage means that even in the absence of US equity trading, crypto remains hostage to the same macro narratives driving tech stocks, namely, the path of Federal Reserve policy. Recent US jobs data came in stronger than expected, tempering market expectations for aggressive rate cuts.

While UOB still anticipates a 25 basis point reduction at the December 17 FOMC meeting, the probability has softened from near-certainty to approximately 85 per cent. This shift matters deeply for crypto, which has increasingly functioned as a risk-sensitive asset class. The slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, dropping to just US$21 million on November 26 compared to US$128 million on prior high-volume days, reflects institutional hesitation. With the Fed entering its pre-meeting blackout period this weekend through December 12, 2025, traders are left to navigate a policy vacuum, relying on lagging indicators and thin holiday liquidity to set prices.

That thin liquidity has magnified market volatility. Total 24-hour trading volume across major exchanges fell by 21.5 per cent, a typical seasonal pattern during US holidays, but one that exacerbates price swings when large orders enter the market. In such environments, even modest sell pressure, whether from hacked assets being offloaded or leveraged positions unwinding, can trigger outsized moves. This dynamic is particularly acute in crypto, where market depth remains shallower than in traditional equities or FX markets, despite growing institutional participation.

Within this short-term turbulence, structural undercurrents remain supportive. The broader macro environment still points toward impending monetary easing. Bond markets signal renewed appetite for fixed income, with UOB noting that spread widening has made quality bonds attractive again, a precursor to rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar has held steady, and Asian currencies are gaining modest ground, buoyed by easing trade tensions and a stable Chinese yuan. These factors create a more favourable external backdrop for risk assets, including crypto, once the immediate fog of uncertainty lifts.

Looking ahead, three variables will dictate the market’s next directional move. First, developments in the Upbit investigation could either calm nerves if authorities confirm containment and recovery efforts or deepen panic if stolen funds begin circulating widely. Second, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the 89,080 dollar level, which corresponds to the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally, will serve as a critical technical support.

A breakdown below this level could invite further liquidations and test deeper support zones. Third, and most importantly, Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will offer the clearest signal yet on whether December’s anticipated rate cut remains on track. A softer print would likely reignite risk appetite across equities, bonds, and crypto alike, while a hotter-than-expected reading could extend the current period of caution.

In sum, today’s dip is not a reversal of trend but a recalibration, a moment of hesitation amid overlapping uncertainties. The crypto market, now deeply enmeshed in the global macro framework, cannot escape the gravitational pull of Fed policy, tech sector sentiment, or geopolitical risk. Its resilience over the past week, despite the Upbit breach and technical rejection, suggests underlying demand remains intact.

The challenge for market participants lies in distinguishing transient noise from structural shifts. In a world where digital assets increasingly mirror traditional financial cycles, patience and precision will determine who navigates this transitional phase most successfully.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-triple-threat-exchange-hack-technical-rejection-and-fed-policy-fog-20251128/

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Anndy Lian: Crypto liquidity crisis approaches decisive December moment

December marks a crucial period for the crypto liquidity crisis, according to Anndy Lian. He observes that while traditional markets are beginning to price in easing by the Federal Reserve, the cryptocurrency sector remains on edge.

The fear persists amid dwindling liquidity and significant outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), signaling potential challenges for the market ahead.

 

 

Such turbulence in the digital asset landscape draws parallels to previous episodes, notably when exchanges faced withdrawal freezes and sharp volume declines, compounding investor uncertainty. Furthermore, shifts in sentiment—such as those observed within the memecoin community—underscore the market’s sensitivity to evolving preferences and liquidity conditions.

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/944178-crypto-liquidity-crisis/

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Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Market movements have shaped a complex but increasingly hopeful outlook across both traditional and digital asset markets, primarily fuelled by evolving expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Central to this momentum is a mounting belief that interest rate cuts are on the horizon. Financial markets now place an 84.9 per cent likelihood on a 25 basis point reduction at the December FOMC meeting. This shift in sentiment has ignited a widespread rally, pushing equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies higher in a coordinated risk-on surge that underscores how tightly asset prices are now linked to macroeconomic signals.

The labour market data released on November 26 provided critical fuel for this optimism. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell to 216,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and coming in well below the median forecast of 226,000. This third consecutive weekly decline signals continued resilience in the employment sector, but in the current environment where inflation appears to be moderating and growth concerns linger, the market interpreted the report as dovish. This interpretation aligns with UOB’s ongoing forecast of a 25 bps cut in December, now seemingly corroborated by real-time market pricing.

Equity markets responded enthusiastically. On Wednesday, November 26, the S&P 500 rose 0.7 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7 per cent, with technology stocks leading the charge. The gains extended a four-day winning streak in a holiday-shortened week, underscoring investor confidence in a pivot toward looser monetary conditions.

Notably, the US market closed early in observance of Thanksgiving, leaving Asian markets to carry the momentum into the next trading session. This global transmission of sentiment was evident in South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged 2.67 per cent on November 26 to close at 3,960.87, its strongest single-day advance in weeks. Regional indices across Asia followed suit, reinforcing a strategic tilt toward non-US value and mid-cap equities as sources of alpha, particularly in technology and dividend-yielding sectors.

Fixed-income markets reflected a more cautious recalibration. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held steady at approximately 4.00 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged slightly higher to 3.47 per cent, resulting in a 10Y-2Y spread of about 53 basis points. This modest flattening suggests that while near-term rate expectations are shifting, longer-term inflation and growth concerns remain anchored. Nevertheless, the widening spread between equities and bonds is beginning to make fixed income more attractive, prompting institutional investors to accumulate high-quality bonds in anticipation of a Fed pivot gradually. The relative stability of the 10-year yield amid equity rallies suggests the bond market is not fully pricing in aggressive easing but remains open to modest cuts if inflation data cooperate.

Currency and commodity markets further validated the risk-on narrative. The US dollar weakened broadly, with Asian currencies like the Korean won and Singapore dollar strengthening as the expected narrowing of the Fed-Asia yield differential reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Brent crude oil edged higher to US$63.04 per barrel, supported by expectations that lower interest rates could stimulate global demand. Even more striking was gold’s ascent to US$4,163.51 per ounce, a 0.8 per cent increase that reaffirmed its role as a defensive hedge amid monetary uncertainty. Gold’s performance, up nearly 58 per cent year-to-date, reflects not just inflation hedging but also a broader loss of confidence in fiat monetary regimes, a theme that resonates deeply in the cryptocurrency space.

Speaking of crypto, the digital asset market rallied 2.5 per cent over the 24 hours ending November 27, reclaiming a market capitalisation near US$3.07 trillion, a key Fibonacci retracement level. This rebound emerged from a state of extreme fear, as measured by sentiment indicators, and closely tracked the Nasdaq’s gains, with a 24-hour correlation of plus 0.84. Three interlocking forces drove this recovery.

First, technical indicators signalled a classic oversold bounce. Bitcoin’s RSI-14 had dipped to 36.09, bordering on oversold territory, while the MACD histogram turned positive, reflecting a shift in momentum. This setup was amplified by a short squeeze; US$74 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with 87 per cent attributed to short sellers. Such dynamics often accelerate upward price action as forced buying meets opportunistic dip-buying.

Second, Ethereum witnessed significant off-exchange accumulation. On-chain data from Santiment showed a 49 per cent weekly decline in ETH exchange reserves, equivalent to roughly US$4 billion in value. This movement suggests large holders, whales, and institutions are withdrawing supply from liquid markets, tightening available float, and reducing immediate sell pressure. The trend was reinforced by BlackRock’s ETH ETF, which recorded US$92.6 million in inflows on November 24, its first positive flow in two weeks. This institutional re-engagement, occurring just as ETH tests the 3,000-dollar resistance level, points to strategic positioning ahead of potential macro catalysts.

Third, macro tailwinds provided the overarching narrative. With an 85 per cent market-implied probability of a December rate cut, risk assets across the board benefited from renewed liquidity expectations. However, sustainability remains uncertain. Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple, a metric comparing daily miner revenue to its 365-day average, stands at 0.67, above historical bear market bottoms but not yet signalling undervaluation. This suggests that while the macro backdrop is supportive, crypto-specific fundamentals have not yet reached a point of compelling long-term value.

In conclusion, today’s rally is a fragile synthesis of technical relief, institutional accumulation, and macro optimism. The alignment between crypto and equities, particularly the Nasdaq, has turned digital assets into a high-beta proxy for Fed policy expectations. This very correlation exposes crypto to reversal if incoming data, such as the US PCE inflation report, contradicts rate-cut assumptions. Should the Fed deliver as expected, the stage may be set for a sustained recovery. But without improvements in on-chain fundamentals, network activity, user adoption, and real yield generation, the rally may prove ephemeral, a mere leveraged echo of traditional market sentiment rather than a foundation for a new paradigm.

 

Source: https://e27.co/fed-rate-cut-odds-hit-85-per-cent-heres-how-stocks-crypto-and-gold-are-reacting-20251127/

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December’s make-or-break moment for crypto’s liquidity crisis

Equities and fixed income have rallied on mounting confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its December FOMC meeting. This expectation is reinforced not only by softening consumption data and declining consumer confidence but also by the accelerating political momentum behind Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate to assume the Fed chairmanship. Markets interpret Hassett’s likely appointment as a signal of a more responsive, disinflation-conscious policy framework, thereby pricing in an earlier and potentially deeper easing cycle than previously anticipated.

This macro recalibration is evident across multiple asset classes. US Treasury yields have declined modestly yet meaningfully, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.004 per cent, reflecting a repricing of terminal rate expectations. Concurrently, the US dollar has weakened, providing tailwinds for Asian currencies, which have strengthened amid a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and regional central banks, stable onshore Chinese liquidity conditions, and reduced geopolitical friction following the Xi-Trump dialogue. Chinese equities, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, have rallied in response, indicating that risk capital is already rotating toward markets perceived to offer both valuation support and policy tailwinds.

Despite this broad-based improvement in traditional risk sentiment, digital asset markets remain entrenched in a state of acute pessimism. The CMC Fear and Greed Index stands at 15 out of 100, categorically Extreme Fear, unchanged over the past 24 hours and only marginally above its yearly nadir of 10 recorded on November 22. This persistent fear is notable not for its intensity alone but for its durability in the face of improving macro fundamentals elsewhere.

The total crypto market capitalisation of 3.03 trillion dollars remains below both its 7-day 2.97 trillion dollars and 30-day 3.34 trillion dollars simple moving averages, confirming a technically bearish posture. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has plunged to 27.4, the lowest level since April 2025, signalling exhaustion in the prevailing downtrend. Historical precedent suggests that such oversold conditions, particularly when coinciding with shifts in macro liquidity, often precede short-term mean-reversion rallies.

Complicating the interpretation of this dislocation is the anomalous behaviour in crypto derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, perpetual futures volume surged 25.5 per cent to 1.3 trillion dollars, while spot volume contracted by 14.1 per cent to 268 billion dollars. This divergence typically indicates heightened speculative activity absent genuine conviction in directional price movement.

Supporting this interpretation, open interest in perpetual contracts declined by 1.89 per cent to 785 billion dollars, and funding rates collapsed by over 5,000 per cent to a negligible 0.0013 per cent. These metrics collectively suggest that traders are engaging in low-leverage, short-duration positioning rather than establishing sustained long or short exposure. The derivatives market is active, but it is not committed.

The central constraint on crypto market performance remains liquidity. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of 28 billion dollars this month, draining a critical source of structural demand precisely when macro liquidity conditions are most fragile. Until these flows stabilise or reverse, or until the Federal Reserve explicitly shifts to a more accommodative stance, crypto markets are likely to remain range-bound and sentiment-constrained.

The three trillion dollar market cap threshold has emerged as a key psychological and technical support level. A sustained breach below this mark could trigger algorithmic and leveraged liquidations, exacerbating downside pressure. A hold above this floor in conjunction with a dovish Fed decision could catalyse a significant liquidity-driven relief rally.

Kevin Hassett’s emergence as the presumptive next Fed Chair amplifies the probability of such an outcome. As Director of the National Economic Council since early 2025, Hassett has consistently advocated for a monetary policy that responds proactively to weakening demand indicators. His potential leadership signals a pivot toward a more traditional Taylor-rule-oriented framework, which would likely accelerate the pace of rate cuts in the event of further softening in labour or consumption data. For digital asset markets, which historically exhibit high beta to shifts in global liquidity conditions, this scenario represents a pivotal inflexion point.

In conclusion, the current market environment reflects a transitional regime characterised by divergent sentiment across asset classes. Traditional markets have already priced in near-term Fed easing, supported by both data and institutional expectations. Crypto markets, by contrast, remain mired in extreme fear despite being technically oversold and exhibiting heightened but uncommitted speculative activity. The critical variable bridging this gap is liquidity, which hinges on two near-term catalysts: the Fed’s December policy decision and the trajectory of Bitcoin ETF flows.

Should the Fed deliver a dovish pivot, particularly under Hassett’s anticipated stewardship, it would likely resolve the current sentiment dislocation and re-anchor crypto valuations to a more favourable macro liquidity regime. Until then, tactical positioning should emphasise monitoring these liquidity signals rather than assuming directional conviction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/decembers-make-or-break-moment-for-cryptos-liquidity-crisis-20251126/

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A House Of Cards Built On Bitcoin: Why Strategy Inc. Can’t Outrun Its 90-Day Clock

Let me begin by saying this. I have nothing against Bitcoin, but did see flaws in the treasury model. I have also voiced that out in an earlier article, too.

There is a certain seduction in the story of Strategy Inc., the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, that has bewitched investors, pundits, and even seasoned crypto natives for years. On the surface, it appears to be a grand corporate embrace of digital gold: a publicly traded entity hoarding Bitcoin not as a speculative side bet, but as a strategic treasury reserve. In a world drowning in fiat inflation and institutional timidity, Strategy Inc. seemed to offer a rare act of conviction, a bold bet on a post-fiat future. But look closer, and the illusion evaporates. The company reported just 54 million dollars in cash on hand, yet faces more than 640 million dollars in annual preferred dividend obligations. Its legacy software business, once the engine of its existence, remains cash-flow negative. There is no internal engine generating the capital needed to sustain its promises. Instead, Strategy Inc. has built a financial house of cards powered entirely by external capital markets, one that only functions so long as investors are willing to keep buying in.

And for a while, they did. From January through September 2025 alone, the company raised 19.5 billion dollars, not to buy more Bitcoin, but to refinance existing debt. This is not innovation. It is recursion. It is a system where new equity and debt issuances are used to pay dividends to prior investors. The only reason this did not feel like a Ponzi scheme was that Strategy’s stock consistently traded at a significant premium to its Bitcoin net asset value. At a 2x premium, every new share issuance effectively increased per-share Bitcoin ownership for existing holders, a virtuous loop that masked the underlying insolvency of the model. But that premium has now vanished. As of late 2025, Strategy trades roughly at par with its Bitcoin net asset value. The magic is gone. Issuing new shares no longer enriches existing shareholders. It dilutes them.

This shift is catastrophic for a model that depends entirely on perpetual capital inflows. Without a premium, there is no arbitrage advantage to issuing equity. Without equity issuance, there is no way to fund those monstrous preferred dividends, especially now that management has raised the dividend rate from 9.0 percent in July to a jaw-dropping 10.5 percent by November. This is not confidence. It is panic. The structure includes no cap on the dividend rate, meaning that every time the common share price dips below 100 dollars, the yield automatically ratchets higher to attract buyers. It is a feedback loop of compounding desperation: lower price, higher yield, greater capital burn, greater pressure on price. The math is accelerating toward a cliff.

The most immediate existential threat is not market sentiment or macro volatility. It is mechanical. On January 15, 2026, MSCI will implement a rule change excluding any company with more than 50 percent of its assets in digital currency from its indices. Strategy Inc. holds 77 percent of its balance sheet in Bitcoin. This is not a judgment call. It is a binary, algorithmic exclusion. JPMorgan estimates the delisting could force passive funds to dump 2.8 billion dollars in Strategy stock immediately. If other index providers follow suit, the total outflows could swell to 8.8 billion dollars. In a stock where 15 to 20 percent of its market cap is already tied to algorithmic strategies that trade on technicals rather than fundamentals, such a forced selloff could trigger a death spiral.

We got a preview of this vulnerability on October 10, 2025. In just 14 hours, Bitcoin dropped 17 percent, order book depth evaporated by 90 percent, and 19 billion dollars in leveraged positions were liquidated across the ecosystem. The event laid bare a fundamental truth: Bitcoin’s market, for all its headline size, remains structurally shallow. The notion that Strategy Inc. could offload 1 billion dollars of Bitcoin annually without moving the market is pure fantasy, shattered not by theory but by real-time data. If the company is forced to sell even 100,000 of its 649,870 coins to meet obligations, it would not just depress the price. It could ignite a systemic cascade, especially if leveraged players interpret the sale as a signal of institutional capitulation.

This is not a critique of Bitcoin, far from it. Bitcoin, as a decentralized, censorship-resistant, apolitical monetary network, remains as compelling as ever. It will likely outlive Strategy Inc., the Federal Reserve’s current chair, and possibly even the dollar’s global reserve status. The issue is not the asset. It is the attempt to graft Bitcoin’s infinite time horizon onto a corporate entity bound by quarterly earnings, SEC disclosures, and 90-day liquidity windows. Sovereign treasuries have operated for centuries. Corporations operate on credit cycles. You cannot run a company like a nation-state, especially when that company has no real operating income and is leveraged to the hilt on a volatile asset.

Strategy Inc.’s entire thesis rests on the assumption that capital markets will remain infinitely accommodating, that investors will always be there to buy newly issued shares or bonds to fund its preferred dividends. But markets are not infinite. They are cyclical, emotional, and brutally efficient at exposing leverage masquerading as strategy. The moment the premium disappeared, the model broke. The moment the index exclusion became inevitable, the countdown began.

We will know the outcome by March 2026. Either Strategy Inc. will be forced into a humiliating restructuring, slashing its preferred dividend, selling Bitcoin at a loss, and retreating into a shadow of its former self, or it will collapse entirely, taking with it the credibility of the entire corporate Bitcoin treasury narrative. Some will call it bad luck. Others will blame macro headwinds. But the truth is simpler: this was never sustainable. It was a high-risk financial structure dressed in the language of conviction, powered by recursive capital raises and investor FOMO.

The data is public. The mechanics are transparent. The outcome is not uncertain. It is mathematically inevitable. What remains is our collective willingness to finally see the 48 billion dollar illusion for what it is: not a visionary bet on Bitcoin, but a self-reinforcing error that mistook leverage for legacy, and market timing for strategy. In the end, Strategy Inc. will not be remembered as a pioneer of digital treasury management. It will be remembered as the cautionary tale of what happens when financial engineering masquerades as principle, and when a company confuses a bull market for a business model.

 

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/25/11/49059248/a-house-of-cards-built-on-bitcoin-why-strategy-inc-cant-outrun-its-90-day-clock

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Anndy Lian: Nasdaq jumps 2.7 percent as rate cut bets surge

The Nasdaq saw a sharp rise of 2.7 percent, buoyed by growing expectations of impending rate cuts. This boost in the market indicates investor confidence following economic signals pointing towards potential monetary easing.

Anndy Lian noted that while tech stocks and cryptocurrencies are currently experiencing a rebound, underlying weaknesses in the crypto sector suggest that caution may still be warranted. The sentiment reflects ongoing challenges in maintaining stability amidst volatile market conditions.

 

 

The current optimism in equity and digital asset markets stands in contrast to persistent vulnerabilities, particularly in the crypto space. Recent upheavals, such as exchange disruptions and liquidity concerns highlighted during the period of frozen withdrawals and declining volumes at MEXC, underscore the need for ongoing vigilance. Additionally, shifting investor sentiment bears resemblance to the preference changes within the memecoin community that Anndy Lian previously analyzed, suggesting that underlying market dynamics remain in flux despite short-term rallies.

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/938355-nasdaq-jumps-rate-cut/

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Anndy Lian
Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto

Global markets staged a modest but meaningful rebound this week, driven primarily by growing optimism that the US Federal Reserve may finally pivot toward interest rate cuts as early as its December meeting. Risk sentiment improved across asset classes, with equities leading the charge, especially in the technology sector, while bonds regained some lustre as yields declined. The US dollar held steady, gold remained flat, and crude oil prices edged higher amid evolving geopolitical narratives.

In parallel, the cryptocurrency market posted a 0.88 per cent gain over the past 24 hours, pulling back from a steep 3.81 per cent weekly loss. Though encouraging, this rebound remains tenuous, supported more by technical relief and macro speculation than by strong fundamental or institutional demand.

US equities surged on Monday, with the Nasdaq climbing 2.7 per cent, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s 1.6 per cent gain and the Dow Jones’ modest 0.4 per cent rise. The performance underscores the tech-heavy market’s sensitivity to monetary policy expectations. The rally stems from signals that several Federal Reserve officials now lean dovish, raising the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December.

Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) explicitly reaffirmed this expectation, adding credibility to the narrative. For investors, the implication remains clear: maintain exposure to high-quality US equities while selectively rotating into non-US value and mid-cap stocks to capture alpha. This strategy acknowledges both the leadership of American tech and the potential for relative outperformance in undervalued international markets.

Bond markets reacted in lockstep with equity optimism. US Treasury yields slipped, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.035 percent and the 2-year yield at 3.503 percent. The widening spread between short- and long-dated yields suggests growing confidence in a soft landing scenario, where inflation eases without triggering recession.

For fixed income investors, this shift marks a critical inflection point. Bonds are regaining their role as a defensive asset class, and positioning ahead of the anticipated Fed easing cycle appears prudent. Accumulating high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate debt now could yield attractive real returns once policy rates begin their descent.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar stabilised, holding its ground as global investors weighed divergent central bank trajectories. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened further, sliding amid ongoing concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the USD/JPY pair approaches the psychologically critical 160 level.

Tokyo has already spent billions defending the yen this year, and market participants remain on high alert. This dynamic creates a unique risk-reward asymmetry in yen trades, where upside potential is capped by intervention fears, even as interest rate differentials continue to pressure the currency lower.

Commodity markets reflected a mix of geopolitical caution and macro caution. Brent crude ticked upward as traders assessed the implications of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, a development that could reduce risk premiums in an already well-supplied oil market.

Meanwhile, gold ended flat at US$2,135.90 per ounce, maintaining its role as a defensive hedge rather than a momentum-driven asset. Its price stability suggests that while investors are not rushing into safe havens, they are also not fully abandoning them. The metal’s resilience amid equity rallies signals persistent undercurrents of uncertainty, likely tied to lingering inflation concerns and geopolitical fragility.

In Asia, regional equities posted a partial recovery from last week’s selloff, though performance remained mixed. US futures pointed lower by Tuesday morning, hinting at potential profit-taking or renewed caution. In this environment, the recommended strategy focuses on technology exposure and dividend-paying equities, sectors that offer both growth potential and income stability in uncertain times.

The cryptocurrency market mirrored broader risk sentiment, rising 0.88 per cent in 24 hours after a sharp weekly decline. This move aligns closely with the Nasdaq-100, which crypto now correlates with at 0.91, a testament to its increasing integration into traditional risk frameworks. Three key factors drove this tentative rebound. First, the completion of SWIFT’s migration to the ISO 20022 messaging standard on November 22 reignited interest in blockchain-based payment networks that comply with this new global standard.

Ripple’s XRP surged 4.91 per cent over the week, and its spot trading volume jumped 68.87 per cent in 24 hours, reflecting renewed institutional curiosity. While real-world adoption remains gradual, the narrative around regulatory-grade interoperability offers a credible pathway for compliant digital assets to gain traction in cross-border finance.

Second, a short squeeze provided technical relief in crypto derivatives markets. Bitcoin’s funding rate plunged 192 per cent to negative 0.0024 per cent, indicating excessive bearish positioning. As the price dipped toward US$80,000, US$17.5 million in long positions were liquidated, often a sign of forced covering by shorts.

While this created a short-term bounce, the underlying market remains weak, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) of just 25.1, deep in oversold territory but not yet signalling a confirmed reversal. For bulls, reclaiming the 200-day moving average near US$88,000 will be the critical technical hurdle to watch.

Third, macro speculation around Fed policy played a decisive role. Reports from the Wall Street Journal highlighted internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some officials now openly supporting a December rate cut. This dovish tilt lifted all risk assets, including crypto. Notably, outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs slowed to US$1.2 billion for the week, down from US$1.94 billion the prior week, suggesting that institutional selling pressure may be easing, if only temporarily.

Despite these positive signals, the current rally remains fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at just 15 out of 100, firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory, revealing deep scepticism among retail participants. Moreover, the US$1.2 billion in weekly ETF outflows confirms that institutional investors have not yet returned in force. Without renewed inflows or a clear catalyst, the market risks another leg lower, especially if upcoming economic data contradicts rate-cut hopes.

All eyes now turn to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected print could swiftly dismantle the dovish narrative, reigniting volatility across equities, bonds, and crypto alike. Conversely, a benign reading would reinforce the case for December easing, potentially extending the current rebound.

To sum things up, the market’s recent gains stem from a confluence of technical oversold conditions, regulatory tailwinds from ISO 20022, and macro hopes centred on Fed policy. These drivers lack the depth and breadth needed for a sustained rally. Investors should view this bounce as an opportunity to reassess positioning rather than a definitive turn in trend. Whether Bitcoin can stabilise above US$87,000, or whether equities can maintain momentum without Fed confirmation, will determine whether optimism evolves into conviction or evaporates under the weight of reality.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/nasdaq-jumps-2-7-per-cent-on-rate-cut-bets-what-comes-next-for-tech-stocks-and-crypto-20251125/

 

 

The post Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Anndy Lian
An Insightful Conversation with Anndy Lian from Singapore – Author of ‘Discovering Singapore By Chance: A Personal Discovery’

At AuthorsWiki, we are privileged to have had the opportunity to connect with Anndy Lian, a Author from Singapore, whose unique voice and creative spirit shine through in their latest work, Discovering Singapore By Chance: A Personal Discovery. Their book, already making waves across leading platforms, invites readers into a world shaped by imagination, experience, and purpose. Anndy Lian is a Singapore-born investor, author, and advisor at the intersection of technology, finance, and public policy. With a career spanning digital transformation, blockchain, and innovation strategy, he has worked closely with listed companies, startups, and government agencies to navigate the evolving landscape of the digital economy. A regular commentator on tech and economic trends, Anndy brings an insider’s perspective to Singapore’s development—shaped by decades of lived experience and professional engagement. In Discovering Singapore By Chance, he co-authors a personal and insightful journey into the heart of his home country, blending his deep institutional knowledge with the fresh eyes of his co-author, Jenny Zheng. Through this collaboration, Anndy offers not just a portrait of Singapore’s systems and successes, but a reflection on national identity, progress, and the quiet marvels of a city-state that continues to reinvent itself. In this conversation, the author opens up about the deeper motivations behind their storytelling, their personal and literary journey, and the lessons they’ve learned along the way. Whether you’re a fan of thoughtful writing or someone looking to understand the creative process, this interview promises valuable insight and inspiration. AuthorsWiki : Apart from writing, what is your occupation for livelihood? Anndy Lian : Apart from writing, my work centers on investing, advisory roles, and driving digital innovation. I am an active investor and blockchain specialist, guiding startups and established companies alike on technology strategy, digital transformation, and the integration of Web3 solutions. Over the years, I’ve served as an advisor to government bodies and international organizations, helping them understand how emerging technologies can be applied meaningfully in the real world. I’ve also held leadership positions and I regularly speak at global conferences on fintech, cryptocurrency, and the future of decentralized systems. My work sits at the intersection of finance, technology, and policy, allowing me to support organizations in navigating the fast-changing digital landscape. This blend of experience has positioned me as a trusted voice and consultant in the evolving digital economy. AuthorsWiki : Tell us something about your first book. Anndy Lian : Blockchain Revolution 2030 was my first book—a forward-looking exploration of how blockchain can power the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Co-authored with Park Young Sook and Shawn Hamnison and published by Kyobo, South Korea’s leading bookstore chain, it quickly drew interest from tech leaders, policymakers, and businesses eager to move beyond the hype. We showed how blockchain extends far beyond cryptocurrency, with the potential to transform finance, healthcare, supply chains, governance, and identity. By combining technical insights with real examples, we highlighted its power to increase transparency, efficiency, and trust. I focused on practical applications in digital assets and fintech, while Park Young Sook contributed policy expertise and Korean market insights, and Shawn Hamnison added a global business perspective. Together, we offered a well-rounded view of the digital future. More than a guide, the book was a call to action—for innovation, smart regulation, and public understanding. It marked the beginning of my mission to make complex technologies accessible—a mission that continues to drive my work, including in Discovering Singapore By Chance. AuthorsWiki : Would you like to tell us about your published books? Anndy Lian : NFT: From Zero to Hero is my solo book and one of my most popular works—a clear, practical guide to the fast-moving world of NFTs. More than a technical manual, it’s a call to action for creators, investors, and visionaries to embrace digital ownership and decentralization. I wrote it to demystify NFTs, taking readers from the basics to real-world uses in art, gaming, identity, and the metaverse. With case studies and actionable insights, it helps readers understand the technology and find ways to participate. Published with Bybit and available on Amazon, the book has sold over 8,000 copies and remains a go-to resource for Web3 newcomers. It reflects my mission to make emerging tech accessible, inclusive, and inspiring for all. AuthorsWiki : Where did you get the inspiration for publishing books? Anndy Lian : My inspiration to write comes from a simple belief: complex ideas should be easy to understand, not locked behind jargon. I started writing because I saw how blockchain and NFTs felt out of reach for most people. I wanted to close that gap—so I used storytelling to make technology relatable. My first book, Blockchain Revolution 2030, aimed to show blockchain’s real potential beyond Bitcoin—how it could transform industries and rebuild trust. It was practical, forward-looking, and meant to inspire action. With NFT: From Zero to Hero, I focused on empowerment. I saw how NFTs gave creators freedom from traditional gatekeepers. I wrote it to be a clear, hopeful guide so anyone could join the digital future. Then came Discovering Singapore By Chance, a personal journey shaped by my co-author Jenny Zheng’s fresh perspective. Her choice to embrace Singapore made me see home differently. The book shares Singapore not as policy, but as a living story. At the heart of my writing is this: knowledge should be shared. My goal is clarity and connection. I write hoping someone will read my words and think: I can understand this. I can be part of this. I can help shape what comes next. AuthorsWiki : How do you manage your time to write a book? Anndy Lian : I see writing as part of my daily thinking, not a separate task. As a busy investor and advisor, I write in small moments—early mornings, commutes, or between meetings. These fragments gradually shape ideas and build chapters. I reserve certain days for deep writing, usually before sunrise, when I can focus without distractions. This is when I turn complex thoughts into clear insights. Collaboration matters. On Discovering Singapore By Chance, my talks with co-author Jenny Zheng became the book’s foundation. Editors Dan Arreola and Nate Lian provided timely feedback, making the process shared and sustainable. I capture ideas as they come—using voice memos or notes—and often speak drafts aloud, then edit them. I write in pieces, following inspiration, and connect them later. Deadlines and public commitments keep me on track. Articles, talks, and posts all feed into my books. Writing is a continuous process of reflection. A book isn’t written in one go. It grows from small, consistent efforts—woven into everyday life. AuthorsWiki : What is your favorite writing method — the one in which you write the most? Anndy Lian : My favorite writing method is voice-to-text thinking. I rarely type at first—instead, I speak my ideas aloud. When a thought comes, I record it on my phone as if explaining it to someone, usually in one go for five to ten minutes. Walking or sitting quietly, I let the idea flow naturally, without worrying about structure. I then use voice-to-text to turn the recording into words. The first draft is rough, with repetition and loose phrasing, but it captures the energy of real thinking. I edit it down, reorganize, and refine until the message is clear. This works best because I think more clearly by speaking. Talking helps me process ideas faster and more honestly than typing. It removes the pressure to be perfect from the start and lets creativity come through. I do this mostly in the morning or right after meetings or travel, when insights are fresh. A single recording can become a full book section. Over time, I collect and shape these pieces into a complete narrative. While I edit directly later, my best writing begins with speaking. For me, voice-to-text isn’t just a tool—it’s how I think, reflect, and create most authentically. AuthorsWiki : When did you start writing, and how did your interest in writing begin? Anndy Lian : I’ve been writing since childhood, starting with school essays and journals. Even then, I found that writing helped me think clearly and express myself. It was never just a task—it was a way to understand and connect. As I moved into technology, finance, and innovation, I began writing articles to simplify complex topics like blockchain and the digital future. I wanted to make these ideas accessible to everyone, not just experts. Over time, I saw how writing extends reach and impact far beyond speeches or meetings. A single piece can travel the world and keep inspiring long after it’s published. What began as schoolwork became a core part of my life. Today, writing is how I learn, share, and contribute—turning ideas into clarity, one word at a time. AuthorsWiki : Is there any special achievement in your life that you would like to share with us and your readers? Anndy Lian : In 2018, I began speaking to government officials about blockchain and crypto, often facing skepticism. I remember one meeting where the look on their faces said it all: Why are we listening to this? Back then, many saw the technology as a fad or a risk. But I believed in its potential to transform finance, identity, and governance. So I didn’t give up. I kept explaining, using real examples and clear language, focusing on trust over hype. Slowly, minds changed—from “Why care?” to “How do we implement this responsibly?” Today, many of those same institutions are advancing digital currencies and smart regulations. Seeing that shift is my proudest achievement. Not because of recognition, but because I stayed committed when few believed. I’m glad I didn’t give up. AuthorsWiki : Are you planning to write or publish a book in the present or future? Anndy Lian : Yes, I’m working on my next book, focused on Web4—the next stage of the internet that combines artificial intelligence, ambient computing, and immersive digital experiences. While Web3 brought ownership through blockchain, Web4 will make technology seamless, intelligent, and deeply integrated into daily life. The book will explore how this shift affects society, business, identity, and creativity, blending real-world examples with practical insights. I want to make Web4 clear and accessible, just as I did with blockchain and NFTs. Still in the early stages, the book aims for release within the next year. This isn’t just a forecast—it’s a roadmap for the future, and my goal remains the same: to help people understand, adapt, and shape what comes next. AuthorsWiki : Would you like to give a message to your readers and fans? Anndy Lian : To all my readers and fans—thank you. Your curiosity and support mean a lot. Every message, every question, every story of how my books helped you understand something new reminds me why I write. I don’t write to impress. I write to connect, to clarify, and to inspire action. If my words have helped you see things differently, then my purpose is fulfilled. Tech and innovation can be overwhelming, but you don’t need to be an expert to be part of the future. Just stay curious, stay open, and take that first step. Keep learning. Keep asking questions. Start small—write, speak, create, explore. Progress begins with action. I’m on this journey with you. There’s more to come—more books, more ideas, more conversations. I hope you’ll stay along, and I’ll keep doing my best to add value, one page at a time. AuthorsWiki : Every writer has their own ideal. Do you also have an ideal writer? And what are your favorite books that you always want to read? Anndy Lian : Every writer is shaped by the books they read, and I’m no exception. While I don’t have one ideal writer, I deeply admire those who make complex ideas simple and empowering rather than flashy. One such influence is Robert Kiyosaki, especially through Rich Dad Poor Dad. That book changed how I see money, assets, and financial freedom. It taught me that true wealth comes from understanding systems, not just working hard. Its lessons on mindset and ownership still guide me, both personally and in my work with blockchain and digital assets. I’m drawn to books that tell stories while delivering insight—those that teach through experience, not theory. I value clarity, honesty, and practical wisdom above all. Whether on finance, innovation, or growth, the books I return to are the ones that shift my perspective and inspire action. Rich Dad Poor Dad remains a constant in my life. It’s not just a read—it’s a reference I live by. And as I write my own books, I carry its core message: the best ideas don’t just inform—they transform. AuthorsWiki : Apart from writing, what are your other hobbies that you enjoy in your free time? Anndy Lian : Outside of writing, I love spending time with people—catching up with friends, meeting new minds, and sharing meaningful conversations over food, laughter, and good company. For me, connection is energizing. Whether it’s a casual coffee, a late-night chat, or a business talk that turns personal, I always come away inspired by the exchange of ideas. One of my favorite rituals? A durian session with close friends. There’s something special about gathering around the king of fruits—laughing at the smell, arguing over whether D24 or Musang King is better, and savoring every rich, creamy bite. It’s messy, bold, and unforgettable—much like life itself. When I’m not writing or working, that’s probably where I’ll be: in good company, surrounded by thorny pods and even thornier debates. It’s my idea of perfect downtime—simple, joyful, and deeply human. AuthorsWiki : Would you like to remain in the writing world in the future as well? Anndy Lian : Yes, I plan to stay in the writing world for the long term. Writing is more than sharing knowledge—it’s how I think, connect, and contribute. Every book, article, or post is a chance to simplify complex ideas and inspire others in tech and society. As long as new ideas emerge—from Web4 to digital identity—I’ll keep writing about them. I want to grow as a storyteller, reach more people, and help others communicate with clarity and courage. Writing is a commitment I’ve made. As long as I have something meaningful to say, I’ll keep putting it on the page. How to Buy Author’s Book- You can buy the author’s book from your favorite e-commerce store-

Buy from Amazon

It was a pleasure speaking with Anndy Lian, whose journey and reflections offer a meaningful glimpse into the creative life of a writer. We sincerely thank them for sharing their time and wisdom with the AuthorsWiki community.

 

Source: https://www.authorswiki.com/authors-interview/an-insightful-conversation-with-anndy-lian-from-singapore/

 

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Anndy Lian
December Fed cut countdown: The 25 basis point move that will reshape every asset class

Financial markets stand at a pivotal intersection where technical pressures, valuation concerns, and shifting monetary policy expectations converge to create both opportunity and risk. The S&P 500 index recently breached key moving averages, though the 200-day moving average remains a robust support level. This technical development suggests short-term volatility remains likely, yet it does not warrant abandoning core equity positions.

Instead, prudent risk management through strategic hedging becomes essential as markets digest mixed signals. Professional fund managers currently maintain exceptionally low cash levels, while exchange-traded funds drive the majority of market flows, creating a paradoxical environment of high liquidity and stretched positioning that could amplify any sudden market reversals.

The concentration of market leadership within the Magnificent Seven technology stocks has begun to show signs of fragmentation, with valuations now trading below 30 times earnings and performance dispersion widening significantly. This development marks a crucial transition point where passive indexing strategies may underperform active stock selection.

Investors must avoid crowded trades and instead focus on selective exposure to genuine outperformers within the technology sector. The recent relief rally across US equities on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 1.1 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining one per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.9 per cent, reflected improving risk sentiment driven by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Market participants now price in a 62 per cent probability of a December rate cut, with UOB economists maintaining their expectation for a 25 basis point reduction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed will enter its mandatory blackout period from November 29 to December 12, 2025, limiting official communication during this critical decision window.

Fixed income markets responded to these shifting expectations with Treasury yields edging downward, the 10-year note settling at 4.063 per cent, and the 2-year note at 3.507 per cent. This movement signals growing defensive positioning among institutional investors, supporting the strategic case for maintaining duration exposure in the four to five year range. The spread between equity and bond valuations has widened sufficiently to make quality fixed income increasingly attractive as a portfolio diversifier ahead of anticipated Fed easing.

Simultaneously, currency markets exhibited nuanced behaviour with the US dollar gaining strength for the week while the Japanese yen rose sharply on Friday following Japan’s strongest warning yet regarding recent currency weakness. This intervention risk near the 160 yen per dollar level requires close monitoring as currency volatility could spill over into broader market stability.

Commodity markets reflected geopolitical sensitivity with Brent crude oil dipping on prospects of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, while gold maintained its position above the psychologically significant US$4,000 level. Gold’s resilience underscores its continued role as a defensive hedge against market uncertainty, while oil prices remain acutely sensitive to geopolitical developments that could disrupt supply chains.

Asian equity markets declined on Friday as concerns over stretched artificial intelligence valuations weighed on investor sentiment, though US futures pointed higher at the start of the new week. Within regional allocations, technology exposure combined with dividend-paying stocks appears preferable for maintaining Asian market participation while managing valuation risks.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a modest 1.36 per cent gain over the last 24 hours, rebounding from extreme fear sentiment and oversold technical conditions. However, this recovery appears fragile when viewed against a 6.62 per cent weekly decline and a substantial 19.44 per cent monthly drop. The Relative Strength Index reached an extremely oversold reading of 18.98 before the recent bounce, suggesting technical exhaustion rather than fundamental conviction.

Regulatory developments provided temporary support as Grayscale’s Dogecoin and XRP exchange-traded funds received approval for NYSE Arca listing, scheduled to begin trading on November 24. These approvals, alongside Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF launch and BlackRock’s staked Ethereum ETF filing, signal institutional demand and regulatory progress that temporarily offset broader market anxiety. XRP and Dogecoin outperformed Bitcoin during this period, with XRP gaining 1.58 per cent compared to Bitcoin’s 1.36 per cent rise, though early trading volumes for the new ETF products will determine whether this optimism sustains.

Binance continued to demonstrate ecosystem strength, maintaining its position as the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange with over US$2 trillion in monthly trading volume, representing 41.1 per cent of global crypto trades. BNB token rose 1.35 per cent, supported by ecosystem updates including the CMC20 index token launch on BNB Chain. While Binance’s liquidity depth provides price stability benefits, derivatives trading volume fell 52 per cent over 24 hours, indicating cautious leverage usage among sophisticated traders. This mixed signal highlights the market’s transitional nature, where retail enthusiasm meets institutional caution.

From a global asset allocation perspective, US equities appear relatively expensive compared to international value-oriented strategies that have begun showing strong relative performance. This valuation disparity creates a compelling case for strategic diversification beyond US borders while maintaining exposure to high-quality American companies.

Selective non-US value investments and mid-cap strategies offer opportunities to generate alpha as market leadership broadens beyond the narrow technology concentration that dominated recent years. The combination of reasonable valuations in international markets and attractive entry points in quality fixed income creates a unique opportunity for portfolio rebalancing.

My perspective on this market juncture emphasises cautious optimism tempered by rigorous risk management. The technical breakdown in major indices, combined with stretched positioning metrics, suggests near-term volatility will persist, yet the fundamental case for equities remains intact, given anticipated monetary policy easing.

The widening dispersion within technology stocks represents not a warning sign but rather a healthy maturation of the market cycle where stock selection matters more than sector allocation. The approval of cryptocurrency ETFs marks genuine institutional acceptance, though the asset class remains highly speculative and should represent only a small portfolio allocation for most investors.

The most critical factor for investors remains maintaining discipline amid conflicting signals. The 200-day moving average’s resilience as support for the S&P 500 provides a valuable technical anchor, while the 62 per cent probability of December rate cuts offers fundamental justification for maintaining equity exposure.

However, the extremely low cash levels among professional managers and the dominance of ETF flows create vulnerability to sharp reversals that could test even the strongest support levels. Bond markets offer increasingly attractive risk-reward characteristics as yields remain elevated relative to expected inflation and growth trajectories.

Geopolitical risks continue to influence commodity markets disproportionately, with oil prices sensitive to peace negotiations while gold maintains its safe-haven appeal. Currency markets require particular attention as central bank policies diverge, with the yen’s intervention risk near 160 representing a potential flashpoint for global volatility. Asian markets face the dual challenge of high technology valuations and economic growth concerns, making selective exposure to dividend-paying stocks and established technology leaders more prudent than broad regional bets.

The cryptocurrency market’s fragile recovery underscores the importance of distinguishing between regulatory progress and fundamental value. While ETF approvals represent significant milestones, the 19.44 per cent monthly decline and extremely oversold technical conditions suggest caution remains warranted. Binance’s ecosystem strength provides stability, but the 52 per cent drop in derivatives volume reveals underlying caution that contradicts surface-level price gains.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s December meeting will likely serve as the next major catalyst, with markets already pricing in significant easing. This expectation creates both opportunity and risk, as any deviation from anticipated policy could trigger substantial volatility.

Investors should focus on quality across all asset classes, maintaining core equity exposure while strategically adding high-grade fixed income as yields remain attractive. International diversification offers valuable valuation benefits, particularly in value-oriented strategies that have underperformed during the recent technology-driven rally.

The crossroads markets face today require neither panic nor complacency, but rather thoughtful adaptation to changing conditions. Technical support levels, valuation disparities, and monetary policy expectations all point to a transitional period in which active management and risk-aware positioning will outperform passive approaches.

By maintaining core exposures while hedging downside risks, selectively participating in institutional adoption trends like cryptocurrency ETFs, and diversifying globally toward more attractive valuations, investors can navigate this complex environment while positioning for long-term success. The path forward demands patience and discipline, recognising that market leadership transitions rarely occur smoothly but ultimately create stronger, more sustainable growth foundations.

 

Source: https://e27.co/december-fed-cut-countdown-the-25-basis-point-move-that-will-reshape-every-asset-class-20251124/

The post December Fed cut countdown: The 25 basis point move that will reshape every asset class appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Anndy Lian
Interview With Author Anndy Lian

Tell us about yourself and how many books you have written.
I’m Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based investor, advisor, and author at the intersection of technology, finance, and innovation. With a career spanning digital transformation, blockchain, and Web3, I’ve worked with startups, governments, and global organizations to help navigate the future of technology and value. I’m also a frequent speaker and commentator on fintech, cryptocurrency, and the evolving digital economy.

I have co-authored or authored three books to date:

1) Blockchain Revolution
2030 – My first book, co-written with Park Young Sook and Shawn Hamnison, published by Kyobo, South Korea’s largest bookstore chain. It explores how blockchain will shape the Fourth Industrial Revolution, going beyond cryptocurrency to transform industries and societies.

2) NFT: From Zero to Hero – My solo book, a practical and inspiring guide to the world of Non-Fungible Tokens. Published in partnership with Bybit and available on Amazon, it has sold over 8,000 copies and serves as a go-to resource for creators, investors, and newcomers to Web3.

3) Discovering Singapore By Chance – Co-authored with Jenny Zheng, this heartfelt nonfiction work blends personal narrative with cultural and technological insights, offering a fresh, dual-perspective journey into the soul of Singapore.

Each book reflects my mission: to make complex ideas accessible, empowering people to understand, participate in, and shape the future.

What is the name of your latest book and what inspired it?
My latest book is Discovering Singapore By Chance, co-authored with Jenny Zheng.

It was inspired by her journey as a foreigner who chose Singapore not by birth, but through connection and curiosity. Her fresh, outsider’s perspective made me see my own country in a new light—beyond policies and statistics, as a living, evolving story shaped by people, culture, and innovation.

We wanted to capture Singapore not as a textbook case, but as a personal discovery—layered, dynamic, and deeply human. The book blends her emotional journey with my insider’s knowledge, creating a narrative that’s both intimate and insightful. It’s about how a place can surprise you, change you, and eventually feel like home.

Do you have any unusual writing habits?
One of my most unusual writing habits is that I rarely start by typing. Instead, I speak my ideas out loud—often into my phone—like I’m explaining them to a friend. I call it voice-to-text thinking. Whether I’m walking, sitting quietly, or even right after a meeting, I record myself freely for five to ten minutes, just letting the thoughts flow.

This method captures the raw energy of my ideas before they get polished or over-edited. Later, I convert the audio into text and refine it. It may seem odd to some, but for me, talking is how I think most clearly. I don’t write best at a desk—I write best on my feet, speaking honestly and spontaneously.

Another unusual trait: I don’t write books from start to finish. I write fragments—whatever feels urgent or inspired at the moment. A memory, a recent conversation, or a strong opinion can become a standalone section. Only later do I piece them together like a puzzle.

So yes, my process might not be traditional—but it’s authentic. I write with my voice first, and my pen later.

What authors, or books have influenced you?
Several authors and books have shaped my thinking, but one stands out clearly: Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki. That book changed how I viewed money, assets, and financial freedom. It taught me that true wealth comes from financial literacy and mindset, not just hard work or a high salary. Its simple, story-driven style showed me the power of making complex ideas accessible—a principle I carry into all my own writing.

Ultimately, I’m drawn to writers who don’t just inform, but transform—those who challenge assumptions and open new ways of thinking. Their work inspires me to do the same: to write not just to be read, but to make a difference.

What are you working on now?
I’m currently working on my next book, focused on Web4—the next evolution of the internet. While Web3 brought decentralization and digital ownership through blockchain, I believe Web4 will go further by integrating artificial intelligence, ambient computing, and immersive digital ecosystems into everyday life.

This new phase isn’t just about technology—it’s about seamless, intelligent interaction between humans and machines, where context, personalization, and proactive systems redefine how we live, work, and create. My book will explore what Web4 means for identity, privacy, business, creativity, and society, offering clear insights and practical guidance for those preparing to navigate this shift.

Just as I did with blockchain and NFTs, my goal is to demystify Web4—making it understandable and relevant for everyone, not just tech insiders. The project is deeply personal and builds on all I’ve learned from my previous books. I aim to release it within the next year, as a roadmap for the next decade of digital transformation.

What is your best method or website when it comes to promoting your books?
My strongest platform for promoting my books is X (formerly Twitter).

It’s where I’ve built a highly engaged audience in the tech, blockchain, and Web3 space. The real-time, conversational nature of X allows me to share insights, quotes, and behind-the-scenes thoughts about my writing process in a way that feels authentic and immediate. I often post short threads explaining key ideas from my books—like NFT use cases or the future of Web4—which spark discussions and drive interest.

What works best is not just announcing the book, but living the content daily. By consistently sharing value-driven perspectives, I position the books not as products, but as natural extensions of a larger conversation. Readers follow the ideas first—and then the book becomes a resource they want to explore.

X also connects me directly with creators, investors, and readers who reshare, comment, and ask questions—creating organic reach. For NFT: From Zero to Hero, many sales came directly from viral threads and community engagement on this platform.

So while I use LinkedIn, podcasts, and events, X remains my most effective tool—not just for promotion, but for building trust and momentum one tweet at a time.

Do you have any advice for new authors?
Yes, here’s my advice for new authors:

Start before you feel ready. You don’t need to be an expert, famous, or perfect—you just need to have a message worth sharing. The best writing comes from clarity and authenticity, not credentials.

Write for one person, not everyone. Imagine you’re explaining your idea to a friend who’s curious but not an expert. Keep it simple, relatable, and human. If you try to please all readers, you’ll end up connecting with none.

Consistency beats inspiration. Don’t wait for the “perfect moment” or a burst of creativity. Write in small chunks—10 minutes a day, a voice note, a single paragraph. Over time, these pieces add up.

Your first draft is not your final message. It’s okay if it’s messy. Just get the ideas out. Editing is where the magic happens.

Use platforms to practice. Before writing a book, share your ideas on social media—X, LinkedIn, blogs. See what resonates. Feedback from real readers is the best guide.

Don’t write to impress. Write to make a difference. If your words help just one person understand something new or feel less alone, you’ve succeeded.

And finally, finish what you start. So many people begin a book but never complete it. Push through the doubt. The world needs your voice—not someone else’s copy, but your truth.

Write with purpose. Share with courage. The rest will follow.

What is the best advice you have ever heard?
The best advice I’ve ever heard is: “Don’t wait to be ready. Start where you are.”

So many people hold back because they feel they don’t know enough, aren’t famous enough, or don’t have the perfect plan. I used to feel that way too. But this one line changed everything for me.

When I started speaking about blockchain to governments, I wasn’t the most experienced. When I wrote my first book, I wasn’t a celebrity author. But I had something valuable—a clear message, real passion, and a willingness to begin.

By starting before I felt ready, I learned faster, built credibility through action, and connected with people who were on the same journey.

That advice applies to writing, innovation, and life. You don’t need perfect conditions. You just need to begin—with what you know, who you are, and the tools in front of you.

Because readiness isn’t a starting point. It’s the result of starting.

What are you reading now?
Right now, I’m reading books and research papers on artificial intelligence, ambient computing, and the future of digital identity—all in preparation for my upcoming book on Web4.

I’m diving into how AI is reshaping human-technology interaction, especially in smart environments where devices anticipate our needs without explicit commands. I’m also exploring works on decentralized identity, privacy in immersive ecosystems, and the convergence of physical and digital realities.

While I’m not reading much fiction at the moment, I do follow thought leaders like Yuval Noah Harari, Peter Diamandis, and Kai-Fu Lee for their insights on technology and society. Their work helps me frame the bigger picture—how these changes affect not just systems, but people.

So my current reading list is research-heavy, future-focused, and deeply curious. Every book, article, or paper feeds into the next chapter—of my writing, and of the world we’re building.

What’s next for you as a writer?
I plan to keep writing—blending technology, storytelling, and human insight. I may explore fiction in the metaverse space one day, or a deeper personal reflection on innovation in Asia. But for now, my mission remains clear: to help people understand the future, not fear it.

So what’s next? More writing, more thinking, more connecting. And hopefully, more books that inspire readers to see the world differently—and shape what comes next.

If you were going to be stranded on a desert island and allowed to take 3 or 4 books with you what books would you bring?
If I were stranded on a desert island and could take just three or four books, I’d make sure one of them was my new book, Discovering Singapore By Chance—not out of pride, but because it carries stories, memories, and reflections that feel deeply personal. It would be like having a piece of home, conversation, and purpose with me.

Author Websites and Profiles

Anndy Lian Website

Anndy Lian Amazon Profile

Anndy Lian’s Social Media Links

Goodreads Profile

Facebook Profile

Twitter Account

Pinterest Account

 

Source: https://awesomegang.com/anndy-lian-2/

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Anndy Lian
Co-Creating the Rules: How Crypto Firms Are Shaping A Sustainable Future With Government

The crypto world moves fast, with blockchain innovations popping up constantly while governments take their time to respond. As a member of Bitcoin class 2012/13, and having followed its wild rides and the crashes of major exchanges for more than a decade, I’ve noticed a real shift. Crypto firms are starting to view regulators not as enemies to dodge, but as allies in creating a stable and innovative ecosystem. This change feels like a key moment in the industry, especially now when global markets crave clear rules amid all the volatility, scandals, and crypto’s growing ties to traditional finance. In my opinion, proactively jumping in is essential for building legitimacy, driving growth, and avoiding the regulatory hurdles that have slowed progress in the past.

The industry’s approach to government relations has evolved significantly, focusing on shared wins rather than clashes. Crypto companies are acting as links, developing initiatives that match up with public goals like steady economies and protecting users. This involves sharing expertise on blockchain applications, participating in key discussions, and supporting government-connected initiatives, such as those from NGOs, schools, and think tanks. From where I sit, this teamwork gets at a basic fact. Governments are not out to kill crypto; they just protect against dangers like scams, money laundering, and wild market swings. By offering insights and tools, firms can clear up the tech’s mysteries, aiding officials in making smart rules rather than quick shutdowns. With crypto weaving deeper into everyday finance these days, this kind of alliance is crucial. Companies that connect early are not only cutting risks, but they are also helping set the standards.

A smart ladder of connections is taking shape in the sector, aiming at groups from top federal offices down to local city leaders, covering lawmakers, executive branches, and oversight bodies. This layered plan fits the patchy world of rules, where country-wide policies can bump against state or town-level actions. Outside official channels, efforts reach into schools, research groups, community organizations, global bodies, news outlets, advocacy teams, and legal pros. In the wary atmosphere after blowups like FTX, casting this wide web is key to earning trust. For example, think tanks and universities can churn out studies that sway laws, while media and nonprofits spread good stories. Crypto outfits are also nurturing projects tied to public groups and stepping in as fixers during troubles, which strikes me as a clever move toward real-world good. This full-spectrum outreach fights the idea of crypto as just a gamble, framing it as a way to boost access to money and spark new ideas.

Looking ahead, the sector’s step-by-step plans show why this method maps out wins. Companies are showcasing their setups, like research units, decentralized groups, and funding arms, to officials who often do not grasp the field deeply. Regulators I have talked to own up to those blind spots. By giving details on how things work and market info, firms teach without pushing sales, setting up for fair watchdogs. Jumping into open feedback sessions lets the industry shape new rules, like in worldwide drives for uniform systems. Getting hands-on in trade groups acts as a voice box, pulling in base-level views and spreading learning tools. Teaming with think tanks and schools to craft policy write-ups plants crypto views in debates, even if companies stay in the background.

Tactics for handling cross-office rules leverage crypto’s global reach, accelerating information exchanges beyond traditional paths. Showing up at big meetings not to hawk but to highlight pledges to good deeds, such as blockchain for public help, fits a pattern I have spotted. Authorities warm to players who put society first. Broadening outreach past buzz to local, rule-maker-friendly tales of business and charity work is way past due. The field’s current spin often comes off as inward-looking, skipping chances to spotlight true effects. Linking with advocates gives a push and previews, reading official steps quickly. Putting money and startup help into public aims tightens bonds, since joint interests breed commitment. Mingling with other players, from big outfits to legal crews, builds tough webs for growth or slumps. Launching these bit by bit, as constant work, mirrors the truth that ties are long hauls, not quick dashes.

The industry’s backup strategies highlight ongoing soft spots in this changing setup. When bad news hits, like lists of no-gos or tight reins, firms rally lawyers for straight talks with overseers, scoop local scoops, sync quick messages, and tweak things like ads. If lots of players get dinged, a joint push without spilling too many secrets can stand up to oversteps together. In calm spells, inside checks on stuff like partners and area rule-following keep things primed. From my spot, this readiness points out the fuzzy areas crypto still threads, but it also hints at hope. Through steady chats, firms can head off blowups and grow talks.

In pushing this forward-thinking way, I lean on proof that teamwork brings real upsides. For starters, sharper rule paths boost openness and steady checks, pulling in big-money backers and calming markets. These links foster setups that fire up new ideas while beefing up safety, faith, and money reach around the world. Officials zeroing in on user shields, safety, and honesty find overlap with sector aims, cutting down splits. Take cases like Coinbase, which teams with governments as a go-to crypto middleman, easing dives into the tech. Standard Chartered has joined crypto groups to roll out stablecoins, blending digital bits into banks. Even U.S. ideas for a country-wide Bitcoin stash show official hugs when sparked by sector tips. These back my case for linking up. The flip side, pushing back, has sparked shutdowns in spots like China and parts of Europe.

I stand strong for this path, even if it risks too much control, watering down crypto’s spread-out core. But right now, as crypto mixes into finance with cries for oversight, alliances are vital for growing up. As someone watching this arena, I figure copying these moves across the board could flip crypto from a rule pain to a base of world money flows. The trick is doing it right, mixing push with duty in shifting world plays. If handled well, the field will not just hang on, it will boom, helping creators, funders, and folks everywhere.

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/25/11/48750239/co-creating-the-rules-how-crypto-firms-are-shaping-a-sustainable-future-with-government

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Anndy Lian
AI bubble fears trigger market rotation: What it means for crypto and tech stocks

The recent cooling of risk sentiment across global financial markets has sparked a pronounced defensive rotation, revealing a market grappling with conflicting signals on growth, monetary policy, and the sustainability of the AI-driven rally that has underpinned equity performance for much of the year. This shift lies in a confluence of macroeconomic data, corporate earnings uncertainty, and a reassessment of valuation premiums, particularly among the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks.

The S&P 500’s 1.6 per cent decline, which pushed it below its 100-day moving average, and the Nasdaq 100’s sharper 2.4 per cent drop underscore a growing investor wariness. This pullback occurred despite robust headline earnings from major technology firms, suggesting that earnings quality and forward guidance now matter more than top-line results alone. The market’s reaction reflects a maturing phase of the AI investment cycle, where speculative exuberance gives way to scrutiny over capital discipline and return on investment.

Nvidia’s post-earnings decline of 3.2 per cent, despite reporting record revenue of US$57 billion for the quarter ending October 2025, up 22 per cent from the prior quarter and exceeding its own guidance, highlights this tension. The company’s announcement of US$500 billion in AI chip orders for 2025 and 2026 combined speaks to immense underlying demand, yet investors are increasingly concerned about the pace and efficiency of capital deployment.

Analysts have begun questioning whether the current infrastructure build-out is inherently speculative, with data centre investments potentially outstripping near-term revenue generation. This scepticism has catalysed a broader reevaluation of AI-linked equities, triggering a selloff that spilt over into other risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The market is no longer rewarding growth at any price. Instead, it demands proof of sustainable, profitable scaling.

This tech-driven equity weakness directly influenced the sharp deterioration in crypto market sentiment. Bitcoin fell 3.7 per cent during the session, and the broader crypto market shed 6.22 per cent in 24 hours, mirroring a four per cent intraday drop in the Nasdaq. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 has surged to 0.88, its highest level since March 2025, firmly re-establishing crypto’s role as a high-beta risk asset rather than a diversifying hedge.

This tight linkage means that any fear of an AI bubble or a broader tech valuation correction now directly translates into selling pressure on digital assets. The market has effectively priced in a future of unfettered AI growth, and any hint of a slowdown in hyperscaler spending or a more rational approach to capital expenditure is met with immediate repricing.

Compounding this sensitivity to equity market moves is a sudden and severe repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations. The delayed release of the September US jobs report delivered a mixed but ultimately hawkish signal. While nonfarm payrolls showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 119,000 jobs, well above the 75,000 forecast, the unemployment rate simultaneously ticked up to 4.4 per cent, its highest level since late 2021. This combination of resilient job creation with a rising jobless rate, driven by an expanding labour force, has muddied the Fed’s data-dependent outlook.

The market has responded by aggressively pricing out the prospect of near-term monetary easing. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting has collapsed to just 30 per cent, a sharp decline from the 55 per cent chance priced in a month earlier. This higher-for-longer rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and elevates volatility across all risk markets, as evidenced by the VIX index sitting at 26.4.

This macro-induced risk aversion triggered a violent process of leverage unwinding in the crypto markets. As Bitcoin broke below the critical US$87,000 support level, a cascade of liquidations was set off, with over US$636 million in long positions being forcibly closed. This selling pressure was amplified by the fact that open interest in perpetual swap markets had recently risen by nearly five per cent to US$856.5 billion, indicating that traders had been adding leveraged long positions near the market’s peak.

The resulting feedback loop of margin calls and stop-loss triggers pushed the Fear & Greed Index into Extreme Fear territory at a reading of 11, its lowest point since March. This dynamic illustrates a key vulnerability in the current crypto market structure. High leverage in a low-liquidity environment can turn a modest price move into a full-blown panic, stripping away any illusion of its independence from traditional financial drivers.

In this climate of uncertainty, capital has rotated into traditional defensive sectors. Consumer Staples rose 1.1 per cent, led by a 6.5 per cent jump in Walmart’s share price, as investors sought refuge in stable, cash-generative businesses with inelastic demand. This flight to safety extends beyond equities, with gold holding firm above US$4,000 as a classic hedge against both economic slowdown and policy uncertainty. For investors, the implications are clear.

A broad, diversified portfolio that extends well beyond the narrow leadership of the tech sector is now a prudent necessity. Being selective among the Mag7 is paramount, as not all AI plays are created equal, and the market is now differentiating between those with real earnings power and those riding on pure narrative.

Looking ahead, the critical questions hinge on the Federal Reserve’s next move and the long-term capital discipline of the tech giants. The December FOMC meeting is a pivotal event, and a failure to deliver the expected rate cut could unleash another wave of volatility. The more profound, unanswered question for the market’s structural health is whether the hyperscalers, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, will maintain their current breakneck pace of AI-related capital expenditure into 2026. Their 4Q earnings calls will provide the first real glimpse into their 2026 guidance.

A decision to spend at a more measured, rational pace would be a sign of mature, shareholder-friendly discipline that benefits their own balance sheets. Such prudence would be a double-edged sword, as it would likely inflict significant pain on the vast ecosystem of downstream semiconductor, hardware, and software companies whose growth is entirely dependent on this torrent of spending.

The market’s current weakness is a reflection of its fear that the golden age of unconstrained AI capex may be coming to an end, forcing a painful but necessary reassessment of valuations across the entire technology and crypto landscape.

 

Source: https://e27.co/ai-bubble-fears-trigger-market-rotation-what-it-means-for-crypto-and-tech-stocks-20251121/

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