Ave_ai

BTC Historical Bull-Bear Transition Market Indicator Analysis

After the recent pullback, market sentiment has been quite chaotic. It's difficult to judge the position just by looking at the price; what's more meaningful is to compare this cycle with several past typical bull-bear transitions against key data.

Here are three selected phases:
2018 End of Bear Market → 2019 Rebound
2021 Bull Market Peak → 2022 Deep Bear
Current 2023–2025 Cycle

1. 2018 End of Bear Market: Extreme Fear + Funds Contraction

Core Data:
BTC Dominance: Increased from a low of about 37% at the end of the 2017 bull market to a range of 55–60% during the entire bear market of 2018.

Volatility: For most of 2018, prices continued to decline and consolidate, with the 30-day historical volatility dropping to about 0.6%, a multi-year low, only spiking momentarily during the big drop in November.

Fear & Greed Index: Dropped below 10 several times (extreme fear).

Stablecoin SSR: Dropped to about 25 (near historical low) at the end of 2018, indicating that the supply of stablecoins relative to BTC market value was quite sufficient.

Implications:
Funds fully retreated from altcoins and flowed back into BTC, raising its dominance.
Volatility was compressed to an abnormally low level, indicating that trading enthusiasm had completely extinguished.
Extreme panic + declining SSR were actually preparing for a rebound by stockpiling ammunition.

The outcome is well-known: in 2019, it surged from ~3.2k to ~14k, marking a typical mid-bull after a bear market.

2. 2021 Bull Peak: Excited Sentiment + Excess Funds

Core Data:
BTC Dominance: Dropped from about 70% at the beginning of 2021 to around 40%.

Volatility: BitVol implied volatility peaked close to 170% annually, with multiple instances of single-day spikes of 20–30%.

Fear & Greed Index: Soared to 90–100 several times (extreme greed).

Stablecoin Market Value: Increased explosively from ~30 billion USD at the end of 2020 to over 190 billion.

Implications:
Funds spread massively from BTC to ETH, various altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, a typical bull market end phase of "all coins flying together."
Both volatility and sentiment surged, representing a frenzied stage at the peak.
The explosive rise in stablecoin market value was the fuel that allowed the previous bull to reach such heights.

What followed was the long bear market of 2021-2022, clearing prices and sentiments together.

3. Current Cycle: More like the Early 2019 Bull than the 2021 Bull Peak

The current state of this cycle (2023–2025) can be compared using the same set of indicators:

BTC Dominance:
Current BTC Dominance is roughly oscillating in the range of 52–55% at a high level.
The pattern is more similar to the end of the 2018 bear market / early 2019: "Funds are withdrawing from altcoins and regrouping around main coins," rather than the 2021 trend of spreading from main coins to the entire market.

Volatility:
Recently, BTC's short-term volatility is close to the lows of recent years, indicating a clearly low-volatility phase.

This price isn't considered low, but the combination of very low volatility is historically more often seen during the accumulation phase before a major directional choice, rather than the explosive peak seen in 2021.

Sentiment (Fear & Greed):
The index is roughly between 50–70, neutral to slightly optimistic.
In comparison:
Bear bottoms (2018, 2022) are <10 of extreme fear.
Bull peaks (2021) are >90 of extreme greed.
Currently, it is neither a panic buying zone nor has it entered full FOMO; it resembles an early construction phase of a bull market.

Stablecoins and SSR:
The total market value of stablecoins has slightly retreated from the 2022 peak, but remains at the trillion-dollar level.
Bitcoin's SSR has long maintained around ~10–13, a historical low range.
2018 bear bottom SSR ~25.
Before the 2020 bull market started, SSR hit a new low, then dropped further.
Now SSR is once again at a historical low.

The implications are simple: there is a lot of stablecoin relative to BTC market value, and the funds haven't left the market; more are on the sidelines observing.

4. Simple Conclusion:

Looking at these cycles together, a relatively clear judgment can be made:
The current structure is not like the 2021 peak.

At that time, the characteristics were: low dominance, extreme greed in sentiment, very high volatility, and altcoins everywhere.
Now it is: high dominance, moderate sentiment, extremely low volatility, and funds are more inclined towards BTC/leaders.

It is closer to the 2018–2019 bull transition from a bear market.
Funds are flowing back into main coins, volatility is compressed, and SSR is low, very similar to that time.

The only difference is that this cycle has undergone greater institutionalization and stablecoin volume, so the pace may be slower, but the foundation is thicker.

From the data perspective, the market looks more like the early construction phase of a bull market rather than the wild celebration at the end of a bull market.

Prices can continue to fluctuate and pull back in the short term, but from the structural and funding allocation standpoint, it cannot be said that we have entered a bear market.

What needs to be truly focused on next is:
1: Whether dominance peaks at a high level and starts to decline (indicating that funds are willing to take on more risk).

2: Whether volatility begins to increase from the floor position, and the corresponding direction.

3: Whether stablecoins continue to net inflow into spot/contract platforms.

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