$75K swept, very close to our $74K prediction, which will still eventually be tagged.
But expecting a relief bounce first. Every time my RSI-matrix indicator has tagged this zone over the last 4 years, it's been followed by a strong counter-trend rally.
Also a huge CME gap at $84K from the weekend. Real probability it gets mostly filled given how aggressive the gap is. Though the idea that all gaps fill quickly is misconstrued, evident by $93K gap which is still sitting there.
The reaction at $74K will tell us a lot about the coming months. Gut says we're still heading down, but this is a strong liquidity support zone.
Bitcoin a) follows liquidity - there are two levels I am watching (and where I will buy bigger chunks: 1. 75-80k 2. worst case revisiting EMA200 (60 - 65k) b) has become a tradfi safe haven asset - and will rally just like other commodities. My reversal outlook is 2-4 months.
I don't care about 4 year cycle, halving narrative, fractals or whatever. Times are changing. Look at big tech stocks e.g. and check how bear markets and corrections changed over time.
Bitcoin broke out from this expanding wedge and crashed back to the lows.
But be careful, don't rush into any trade just because the market crashed.
Price is likely to stabilize or bounce back to 87 000$ as we simply grabbed some cheap liquidity at the December 1st and 18th lows.
The bigger picture defines the trends, smaller moves grab liquidity and reverse.
▶️ That's the most likely scenario now : a stabilization or bounce to 87k
After that, I believe the most likely scenario is Bitcoin crashing further, 75k potentially, as the macro trend is bearish and we remain close to the top of this cycle.
This can also be a fakeout, as we swept the equal lows of December 1st and 18th and that ETH remains around its 3 major lows.
However, the latter scenario is less likely considering we're now in a bear market.
My next plan is to wait until tomorrow, see if I can plan a trade.