Trump: I can make the dollar go up or down like a yo-yo.
The US dollar has fallen to its weakest level since early 2022, but Trump insisted he was comfortable with the decline: "I think it's great. Look at the amount of business we're doing. The dollar is doing very well."
Speaking to reporters in Iowa, he added, "I can make the dollar go up or down like a yo-yo," indicating that he wants "the dollar to find its natural level, and that's the fair thing."
He addressed the devaluation practices of China and Japan: "It was hard to compete when they devalued their currencies, but they always wanted to get our dollars."
He continued, "I was always fighting with them because they always wanted to devalue the yen and the yuan. And I would say, 'That's unfair.' They devalue because it's hard to compete when they devalue their currencies."
BEARISH: Odds of a March interest rate cut are just 13.5%.
The "higher for longer" reality is finally hitting the tape. BTC sitting at $87,762, down 1.7% today as those March cut odds evaporate.
It feels bearish because it is, but it's not a shock. Inflation is sticky at 2.7% and the Fed is still pulling $75B a month out of the system via QT. The market is shifting from "hopeful for a pivot" to "accepting the grind."
Majors are feeling the weight. ETH at $2,941 (-2.7%) and SOL at $122.83 (-3.3%) are leading the pullback as liquidity stays tight.
The real test comes tomorrow with Unemployment and GDP data. If those stay hot, expect these March cut odds to hit zero and risk assets to stay heavy. Neutral regime for now, but momentum is clearly slowing. Watch the $85k level on BTC for support.
According to @Reuters, the White House will hold a meeting on Monday with banking leaders and crypto executives to discuss the stalled crypto bill in the US Senate.
The move suggests an attempt to break the legislative deadlock and revive the bill, amid increasing pressure from markets and institutions ⚖️📊
Gold at $5,596… A record high, defying all market norms.
The recent movements in gold are no longer normal and cannot be explained by classical market logic or traditional supply and demand calculations.
History will record that January 2026 witnessed an unprecedented surge in gold, from a low of $4,309 to a high of $5,596 – a movement of approximately $1,300 between the bottom and the top in a very short period. This dramatic rise is inconsistent with known economic data and the historical patterns of gold price movements.
The dollar has not collapsed. The dollar index moved between a low of 95.2 and a high of 99.1, meaning that the US currency has not lost confidence and has not entered a phase of genuine collapse that would justify this frenzied rush towards gold. Furthermore, no world war has broken out; we have only witnessed the geopolitical skirmishes that have become almost commonplace on the international stage in recent years. There has been no comprehensive economic crisis, no wave of bank failures, and no collapse in the credit markets. In addition, Jerome Powell's press conference yesterday contained no cause for concern. His remarks praised the improving labor market and the US economy, and he didn't raise any of the usual fears associated with such a move. Given the interest rate decision, it's expected to remain unchanged until mid-year, which is not favorable for gold.
Despite this, gold has risen by nearly 30% compared to its closing price at the end of 2025, a move that can only be described as a complete break from normal pricing patterns. This surge doesn't reflect a reaction to an event, but rather a preemptive move, as if the markets are pricing in a danger that hasn't yet materialized, or a reality that hasn't been officially announced.
The key support is now confined between $5450 and $5516. A break above this support would push us to higher levels such as $5600, $5640, and $5680. However, a break below the support between $5450 and $5516 could trigger a strong correction down to $5400 and $5300.
The simultaneous, historic meteoric rise of gold and silver sends a message that is repeated every century, or rather, to the world: that the current global financial system, which abolished the gold standard in 1971, is on its way out, and that a new global financial system will be born within a few years. Between the death of the current system and the birth of the new one, everyone, especially governments, banks, and investment funds, rushes to real financial assets like gold and silver, and sells paper money and bonds. Experts say that the wave of exodus to gold and silver is still in its early stages, and this means that the world has lean years ahead until the current financial system dies and the new one is born.
The U.S. Senate is voting tomorrow at the committee level on the Crypto Market Structure Bill : one of the most important regulatory moments for crypto in years.
The bill seeks long-awaited regulatory clarity, defining oversight between the SEC and CFTC, and builds on the House-passed CLARITY (FIT21) framework.
If this passes, it could unlock the next major growth phase for crypto in the U.S. ; capital, innovation, and adoption all accelerate.
🇺🇸 FED WILL OFFICIALLY RELEASE THE NEW BALANCE SHEET TODAY AT 4:30 PM ET.
IF BALANCE > $6.60T → MARKET GOES PARABOLIC IF BALANCE = $6.57–6.60T → MARKET STAYS FLAT IF BALANCE < $6.57T → MARKET DUMPS EVEN MORE
the fed releasing the new balance sheet will shake markets hard. above 6.6 trillion could ignite a parabolic move like nobody expects. between 6.57 and 6.6 trillion, markets will likely remain sideways and quiet. below 6.57 trillion, traders should brace for further downside and panic reactions. high volatility is guaranteed, positioning and risk management are critical right now.
🇺🇸 Secretary Bessent says ''Trump’s Fed chair pick may come in a week or so''
Fed independence? More like Fed obedience. Trump's "week or so" Fed chair hunt treats the world's most powerful bank like a fast-food drive-thru—rush order, loyalty combo meal.
After subpoenaing Powell Jan 20 over renovations—a legal shakedown—Trump's Davos rant triggered market panic: Dow plunged 1.8% Jan 21. Now yields spike to 4.25% as gold hits $5,266. Yet nominees face loyalty tests, not expertise exams—Hassett favored for White House fealty. Historic confirmations take 70-110 days; this circus bypasses scrutiny.
Sacrificing monetary credibility for political subservience—stagflation’s ghost smiles.
BlackRock says ''bonds are no longer a safe hedge.''
BlackRock calling bonds no longer a safe hedge is a massive shift. They've been the biggest bond player for years. If they're saying this out loud it means the old playbook is broken. Inflation volatility, rate uncertainty, and debt levels have made fixed income look riskier than people thought. This pushes capital toward hard assets like BTC and gold even more. On-chain data shows BTC and gold-related flows picking up whenever bond yields spike or sentiment turns.
Over $8.53 BILLION in $BTC options expire this Friday at 8am UTC.
This is the largest expiry of the year.
- Calls stacked at $100K - Puts loaded near $85K - Max pain sits at $90K
Price decides who gets wiped.
The volatility comes after the contracts are gone.
A lot of traders hear about options expiry but don’t really understand what it means in practice. So let’s break it down 👇
It’s human behavior + risk management. Think insurance + inventory management. Here’s the real-world version 👇
Imagine a car dealer sold thousands of price-locked promises:
“I promise to sell you a car for $92,000 if you want it.”
Those promises are call options. The dealer sold them. The dealer is now exposed.
As the car price rises toward $92k: • The dealer gets nervous • More customers may exercise • The dealer starts buying cars early to prepare
That buying slowly pushes the price up. Now the key part 👇
When price reaches $92k, the dealer is fully stocked. At that point, they don’t want price to go higher. Why? Because above $92k: • Every $1 higher costs the dealer real money • Risk grows exponentially
So what do they do? They discount inventory. They sell aggressively at $92k to keep price from running. That’s a call wall.
Back to #Bitcoin.
When $BTC approaches a major call wall: • Dealers have already hedged • New buyers hit heavy supply • Rallies stall or fade • Price chops instead of trends
That’s why BTC can feel “stuck” near certain levels.
Now the twist 👇 If buyers keep coming anyway: • Dealers run out of inventory • They’re forced to buy higher • Hedging flips from selling → buying • Price accelerates fast
That’s a breakout. So remember: • Below the wall → selling pressure • Through and accepted → fuel
This is why BTC can: • Hold $90k • Reject $92k • And still be bullish long-term Nothing is broken. The market is just managing risk.
Call walls don’t predict price. They explain why price behaves the way it does.
The capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has established a precedent now being applied to Iran: favoring “snatch-and-grab” operations or extreme economic blockade over prolonged kinetic conflict. Trump publicly supports a “strong” dollar while simultaneously endorsing USD weakness for trade-deficit benefits, fueling a structural debasement narrative. Combined with the threat of a total Iranian oil embargo, this has driven gold to record highs of $4,600/oz and silver toward $92/oz, alongside a “Sell America” rotation out of Treasuries.
Precious Metals Alpha
1. Gold/Silver as Lead Indicators Precious metals priced in collapsing real yields and U.S. bond fragility months ahead. - $GLD +26.48% return in 2024, peaking at $257.71 in October before surging to $4,600 in 2026. - $SLV High-beta leader with +8.18% in H2 2024, now approaching $92/oz. - Institutional Driver: Central-bank accumulation as a hedge against “Trump Volatility” and perceived erosion of Fed independence.
2. “Venezuela-Style” Sanctions Impact Applying the Venezuela model to Iran poses far greater disruption to global energy. - Supply Volatility: Maduro’s capture enabled Chevron production increases in Venezuela, but a full Iranian embargo threatens immediate Gulf shipping and oil-flow disruption. - Monetary Fallout: Iran’s collapsing rial and regional “Board of Peace” negotiations (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) amplify capital flight into hard assets, unlike the more contained Venezuelan case.