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NFP Night is Here: Data Expectations are Tepid, Crypto Market Awaits Liquidity Direction

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. April Non-Farm Payroll data is set to be released. The market expects only 62,000 new jobs, significantly below the historical average growth rate, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%. Meanwhile, wage inflation year-on-year could rise from 3.5% to 3.8%. The current landscape of 'weak growth + high wages' in the job market has become the central focus of the financial markets.

Historically, an increase of less than 100,000 jobs in a non-farm month has usually been seen as a signal of a weakening labor market. However, Federal Reserve official Logan previously stated that adding around 30,000 jobs per month is sufficient to reach supply-demand balance, indicating a fundamental shift in the market's benchmark for assessing the labor market. More critically, the uptick in wage inflation, along with the recent sticky CPI data, has cooled expectations for interest rate cuts from the Fed. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June is only 5.2%, while the chance of no rate cuts at all this year is as high as 72.6%. The rate cut window has now dropped to its lowest level in recent times.

For the crypto market, the significance of this Non-Farm data goes far beyond the usual: if the data comes in below expectations, it might briefly boost the market's faint hopes for a rate cut, pushing Bitcoin and other risk assets to rebound; however, if the data exceeds expectations, combined with rising wage inflation, it will further cement the Fed's expectation of a 'prolonged high rate battle', with tightening liquidity possibly exacerbating market volatility. The crypto space has currently entered a wait-and-see phase ahead of the data release, with trading volume remaining sluggish. Tonight's Non-Farm data could become the key variable to break the current sideways trend. $BTC $ETH $BNB

FOMC Decision Night: BTC Bulls Celebrate Amid Hidden Reefs

As US stocks and BTC hit new highs together, the crypto market is entering a new phase led by institutional players. Institutional funds are continuously flowing in through ETFs and futures, driving the market from a retail sentiment-based pricing model to one dominated by professional capital. The crucial test for all this is pointing towards the FOMC rate decision in May 2025.

The market broadly expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, with CME data showing a probability as high as 97%. BTC bulls are already betting heavily, accumulating positions around the $80k mark. In the past 24 hours, open interest in futures has surged by about $189 million, with funding rates showing a temporary bullish bias. Yet, historical data rings alarm bells: after 8 FOMC decisions in 2025, BTC has fallen 7 times, demonstrating the recurrent pattern of "buy the rumor, sell the news."

Meanwhile, the US ADP employment data showed an increase of 109,000, far exceeding market expectations. The resilience of the labor market may strengthen the newly appointed chair Waller's hawkish stance, casting a shadow over easing expectations. On another front, the Nikkei 225 has breached the historic 61,000 points, and the synchronized rise of global risk assets provides macro support for BTC. However, the potential for a pullback post-decision cannot be overlooked. The early positioning by institutions and the warnings from historical patterns create a hedge. This decision night showdown may determine whether BTC can break through key resistance in the short term, with every market fluctuation serving as another validation of institutional pricing power. $BTC $ETH $BNB #特朗普称美伊很有可能达成协议

DU Dog's Comeback Diary 91｜Starting with 0 capital, grinding SOL for three years aiming for 100 million

Hit that follow button to lock in on this comeback battle through bull and bear markets.
If you’re in the dip, no need to stress, come join me in trading time for space.
Three-year pact, see you at the mountain top.

Core Objective: Start with 0 funds, aim to earn 100 million.
Battle Plan: Below 130 U, daily dollar-cost average into SOL contracts, grinding it out for 3 years.

Day 91· Real Trading Report
Today's Earnings: 147｜ Total Earnings: 5926
Today's Added Positions: 0｜ Total Margin: 2494
Today's Open Positions: 0｜ Cumulative Open Positions: 66
Current Balance: 3432｜ Backup (Hunting Dogs and Scams)

The market's ups and downs haven’t shaken my resolve.
Slow accumulation, steady passive gains, no greed, no haste, just diligently completing the three-year plan.

To all the big players, brothers and sisters,
If you have reliable leads or quality projects, don’t forget to include me!

#StartingFromZero $SOL

BTC Hits New Highs Alongside US Stocks: Institutional Landscape Reshaped, Market Approaches Critical Juncture

On May 5th, the crypto market and US stock market experienced a historic breakout together. BTC surged past $81,286, marking the highest point since January 2026; the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 all hit record highs simultaneously, the first time since 2021 that all three indices have broken through together, signaling a strong cross-asset market resonance.

On that day, BTC saw three key data points come to fruition, completely rewriting the institutional landscape. Strategies now hold 815,061 BTC, officially surpassing BlackRock's IBIT with around 814,000 BTC, making it the world's largest single institutional BTC holder, highlighting a steadfast long-term bet by institutional players on Bitcoin. Additionally, April's spot ETF monthly net inflow reached $2.44 billion, setting a new record for the strongest single month this year, reflecting an ongoing surge in institutional capital entering the market. On the policy front, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing jumped from 46% to 64%, as bipartisan compromises on stablecoin provisions cleared hurdles for the bill's progress, further boosting market confidence.

In the US stock market, the earnings season for the Magnificent Seven (Mag 7) has largely exceeded expectations, and the FOMC's hawkish signals have been fully digested by the market, leading to a sustained recovery in market sentiment. Currently, all eyes are on the May 8th non-farm payroll data, which will be a crucial point for assessing the Fed's policy cadence and influencing subsequent asset movements.

This simultaneous new high for BTC and US stocks not only reflects institutional appetite for risk assets but also marks a further strengthening of the correlation between crypto assets and traditional financial markets, accelerating the formation of a market landscape dominated by institutions. #比特币突破$80K $BTC $ETH $BNB

DU Dog's Turnaround Diary 90 | Grinding SOL with 0 Capital, Aiming for 100 Million in Three Years

Hit that follow button to lock in this epic battle through bull and bear markets.
If you're also in a slump, don't sweat it; come join me in trading time for space.
In three years, we'll meet at the summit.

Core Goal: Start with 0 funds, aiming to earn 100 million.
Battle Plan: Below 130 U, daily DCA into SOL contracts, grinding for 3 years.

Day 90 · Live Trading Report
Today's Income: 0 | Cumulative Income: 5779
Today's Position Increase: 0 | Total Margin: 2494
Today's Open Positions: 0 | Cumulative Open Positions: 66
Current Balance: 3285 | Backup (Hunting Dogs, Chasing Altcoins)

A Day with No Income

To all the big players and fellow traders,
If you have reliable paths or quality projects, don't forget to bring me along!

#StartingFromZero $SOL

Sun Yuchen and WLFI's legal battle escalates, spreading panic in the market

The crypto scene continues to simmer with focus on Sun Yuchen's dispute with the Trump-associated project WLFI, which has evolved from a one-sided defense to a full-blown court battle. After Sun filed a lawsuit against WLFI in California federal court on April 21, claiming they froze his roughly $75 million position and stripped him of voting rights, WLFI retaliated by filing a counter-suit in Florida on May 4, accusing him of defamation, illegal token transfers, suspected short-selling, and unauthorized sales, demanding compensation and punitive damages.

This legal back-and-forth is directly impacting market sentiment, with WLFI's price plummeting over 70% from its all-time high, briefly hitting a historical low of $0.05 in early May. Although it has recently bounced back to around $0.06, trading volume has been highly volatile, and investor confidence remains shaken. This dispute highlights governance flaws in celebrity-backed crypto projects, as WLFI's prior private sale of 5.9 billion tokens has already dissatisfied early investors, while the legal tussle further amplifies market skepticism regarding project transparency and decentralization commitments.

In the short term, the tug-of-war between the two parties will continue to suppress WLFI and similar politically-themed tokens' performance, with retail investors growing increasingly risk-averse, leading to a decline in overall altcoin market risk appetite. In the medium to long term, this lawsuit may force the industry to rethink project governance and investor protection mechanisms and could prompt regulatory bodies to establish norms around token freezes and voting rights restrictions. $BTC $ETH $BNB #WLF反诉孙宇晨

The skirmish at Hormuz ignites a market rollercoaster, exposing BTC's geopolitical fragility

On the first day of Trump's 'Project Freedom' escort operation, he faced setbacks as the US and Iran engaged in direct fire in the Strait of Hormuz, instantly lighting up the global market's intense emotions.

In the early stages of the operation, the market momentarily saw increased risk appetite due to rising expectations for navigation safety, allowing BTC to break through the $80,000 mark, reaching a three-month high. The market generally believed that the conflict was manageable, and the demand for safe havens temporarily subsided. However, the news of the skirmish shattered this illusion, with Iran redrawing control zones and claiming missiles hit US warships, causing a swift pivot from negotiation expectations to hot war confrontation, resulting in a rapid surge in geopolitical risk premiums.

The market then executed a 'heart-stopping reversal,' with BTC quickly retracing as short positions were liquidated to the tune of over $300 million, while high-leverage funds faced a series of cascading liquidations amid the intense volatility fueled by news. This rollercoaster market action has exposed the current dual contradictions in the crypto market: on one hand, traders still view geopolitical conflicts as short-term trading signals; on the other hand, the amplified effects of the high-leverage derivatives market have caused prices to deviate from fundamental logic.

The core variable for the market moving forward remains the evolution of the situation in Hormuz. Should the conflict escalate, rising energy prices leading to inflationary pressure will force the Fed to tighten policy expectations, putting crypto assets to the test with dual challenges of liquidity and safe-haven demand; if the situation eases, the recent oversold condition may present a recovery window, but the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks has significantly increased, meaning any minor disturbance could trigger a new round of volatility. #美伊波斯湾交火 $BTC

DU Dog's Turnaround Diary 89 | Hustling SOL with 0 capital, aiming for 100 million in three years

Hit that follow button to lock in this turnaround battle spanning bull and bear markets.
If you find yourself in a slump, don’t stress, let’s trade time for space together.
In three years, we’ll meet at the mountaintop.

Core Goal: Start with 0 capital, make 100 million.
Battle Plan: Below 130 USDT, daily income for dollar-cost averaging into SOL contracts, grinding it out for 3 years.

Day 89 · Real Trading Report
Today's Income: 83 | Total Income: 5779
Today's Position Increase: 0 | Total Margin: 2494
Today's Open Positions: 0 | Cumulative Open Positions: 66
Current Balance: 3285 | Spare (for dog trades and altcoins)

The most realistic truth in crypto:
The ones who really make big bucks are always low-key, never loud about the process;
while those who lose all their capital and are deep in debt are just the result of greed and luck, stepping into pitfall after pitfall.

To all you big players and brothers and sisters,
If you’ve got reliable paths or quality projects, don’t forget to bring me along!

#StartingFromZero $SOL

The Hormuz Tensions Resurface: Geopolitical Maneuvering Resonates in Crypto and Oil Markets

The US-Iran talks have entered a crucial "text exchange" phase, with Trump announcing plans to guide trapped vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command quickly deployed missile destroyers, hundreds of aircraft, and 15,000 troops for military support, securing the reopening of this global oil lifeline. This news has sent ripples through the global markets, with cryptocurrencies and oil prices moving in sync—Bitcoin has surged past the $80,000 mark, while WTI crude fluctuates around $102, as the market engages in intense speculation over the reopening of the strait.

Meanwhile, Reuters has revealed ties between Iran's largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, and the supreme leader's family, with the platform handling over $366 million in sanction-related transactions during the conflict, leading to heightened OFAC compliance risks. This event casts a shadow over the market and highlights the compliance vulnerabilities of crypto assets under geopolitical strains. The current market presents mixed signals: on one hand, progress in negotiations is boosting risk appetite, pushing Bitcoin past critical resistance; on the other hand, the risks of sanctions and fluctuating high oil prices are limiting the market's upward potential.

If a consensus is reached on the US-Iran texts this week, the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will become the central narrative driving the market. For the crypto market, a temporary easing of geopolitical risks could provide support for risk assets, but caution is necessary regarding the cascading compliance implications of the Nobitex incident; the oil market must watch for volatility driven by changes in supply expectations. Investors should keep a close eye on negotiation details and the progress of US military deployments, navigating the market rhythm amid uncertainty. $BTC $ETH $BNB #特朗普称美国将引导受困船只通过霍尔木兹海峡 #比特币突破$80K

DU Dog's Turnaround Diary 88 | 0 Capital, Relentlessly Trading SOL, Aiming for 100 Million in Three Years

Hit that follow button to lock in on this comeback battle through bull and bear markets.
If you’re also in a slump, don’t stress, join me in trading time for space.
Three-year commitment, we'll meet at the summit.

Core Objective: Start with 0 funds, aim to earn 100 million.
Battle Plan: Below 130 U, daily income to DCA into SOL contracts, relentlessly for 3 years.

Day 88 · Real Trading Report
Today's Revenue: 10 | Cumulative Revenue: 5696
Today's Increase: 0 | Total Margin: 2494
Today's Positions Opened: 0 | Cumulative Positions Opened: 66
Current Balance: 3202 | Reserve (Fighting Dogs, Battling Altcoins)

The market's ups and downs are wild, but the original intention remains unchanged; no greed for short-term spikes, only focusing on long-term positions. Step by step, slowly accumulating and enduring, patiently waiting for the market to deliver returns.

To all the big players and fellow traders,
If you have reliable paths or quality projects, don’t forget to bring me along!

#StartingFromZero $SOL

April Crypto ETFs Turn Green, Institutional Money Signals Offensive

April saw crypto ETFs deliver the strongest monthly performance of 2026, with three major assets achieving monthly net inflows simultaneously, signaling clear entry from institutional capital. The Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a staggering $2.1 billion in monthly net inflows, setting a new high for the year, and during April 14-24, it achieved a robust record of 9 consecutive days of net inflows, injecting ample liquidity into the market.

The Ethereum ETF ended a 6-month streak of continuous net outflows, announcing a strong comeback with a net inflow of $356.5 million; the XRP ETF also emerged from a slump of net outflows in March, recording $81.59 million in monthly net inflow. All three assets turned positive, creating a rare resonance effect in capital movement. As of the time of this data release, BTC price stands at $78,324, with strong capital dynamics directly boosting market confidence restoration.

Behind this capital inflow wave are multiple favorable resonances: the U.S. crypto regulatory framework is becoming clearer, institutions have optimistic expectations about the BTC supply-demand structure post-halving, and the uncertainty surrounding the Ethereum ETF policy is easing. The market has shifted from a previous consolidation to a rebound led by institutional capital, with the continued inflow into ETFs becoming the most intuitive indicator.

Going forward, the market needs to focus on two major events: the non-farm payroll data on May 8 will impact Fed policy expectations, while the markup process of the Senate CLARITY bill will determine the long-term compliance path for the industry. In the context of sustained capital improvement, the structural trends in the crypto market are expected to continue, but macro policies and regulatory dynamics will remain key variables determining short-term volatility. $BTC $ETH $BNB #贝莱德反对设定代币化准备金上限

US-Iran talks have collapsed, geopolitical risks are being repriced, and the market is on edge.

On day 63 of the US-Iran conflict, the situation takes a crucial turn: Iran's 14-point response was clearly rejected by the US, casting a shadow over the prospects for direct negotiations. Trump has openly stated he is 'unhappy and cannot accept' the proposal, while the US announces accelerated delivery of $8 billion in weaponry to its Middle Eastern allies, causing risk aversion in the market to spike.

The core of the current deadlock lies in Iran's demands for US troop withdrawal from the region, the lifting of maritime blockades, and the establishment of a new mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz. The US's hardline response significantly reduces the chances of cooling tensions through diplomatic means. ExxonMobil's CEO has publicly warned that the market has not fully priced in the total impact of a potential war with Iran, with the average US gasoline price soaring to $4.39 per gallon, and the 'war premium' in the oil market continues to rise.

For the global market, the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain the biggest variable. As the 'throat' of global oil transportation, any escalation in conflict could directly impact energy supply chains, raising inflation expectations and potentially altering the Fed's policy path. The crypto market is also unlikely to remain unscathed: on one hand, geopolitical uncertainty may drive safe-haven buying of assets like Bitcoin; on the other hand, fears of stagflation due to skyrocketing oil prices may amplify volatility in risk assets and increase market liquidity pressure.

With the dialogue window between the US and Iran closing, the market is entering a high-volatility cycle of 'escalation of conflict - risk pricing - policy response'. In the short term, oil, gold, and crypto assets will continue to be influenced by news from the situation, and investors need to be vigilant about the chain reactions brought on by geopolitical black swans, especially the indirect impact of energy price fluctuations on global liquidity. $BTC $ETH $BNB #特朗普警告伊朗若"行为不端"将恢复打击 #特朗普称伊朗冲突已结束

CLARITY Bill Breakthrough: Stablecoin Regulation Sees Key Shift

On May 2, U.S. crypto regulation marked a significant step forward: Coinbase struck a compromise with Senate leaders on the core contentious clauses of the CLARITY Bill, shedding light on the yield limits for stablecoins. According to the latest agreement, crypto platforms can still offer yield rewards to users, while bank-related platforms face restrictions. The bill has been officially rebooted, and the Senate Banking Committee is expected to kick off the markup process in mid-May.

This compromise is considered a milestone for the industry. Previously, the market was rife with concerns over the clause in the bill that aimed to "prohibit interest yields on stablecoins," causing significant volatility in the stock prices of stablecoin issuers like Circle due to regulatory uncertainty. The recent compromise strikes a balance between regulation and innovation: it preserves the yield service capabilities of crypto platforms while limiting direct competition from banking institutions, injecting certainty into the stablecoin market. On the same day, the submission of the 'Predictive Market Act 2026' indicates that the U.S. is systematically refining its crypto regulatory framework, with rules from stablecoins to predictive markets becoming progressively clearer.

For the market, this development directly alleviates previous regulatory anxiety. As the 'lifeblood' of the crypto market, the clarification of regulations is expected to boost institutional interest, especially for mainstream stablecoin issuers like USDC, who may see a valuation recovery. In the long run, the formation of a compliant framework will push the industry away from 'wild growth', returning stablecoins to their core roles as payment and settlement tools, while DeFi yield models will need to explore innovative paths under the new rules.

With the advancement of the bill, the era of compliance in the crypto industry is speeding up, marking not only a breakthrough in U.S. regulation but also providing important references for global stablecoin regulation. $BTC $ETH $BNB

Is it time to wrap things up? $LAB

DU Dog's Turnaround Diary 87 | Grinding SOL with 0 capital, aiming for 100 million in three years

Hit that follow button to lock in this journey through the bull and bear markets.
If you're also in a slump, don’t stress, come join me to trade time for space.
In three years, we'll meet at the summit.

Core Objective: Start with 0 capital, aim to earn 100 million.
Battle Plan: Below 130 U, daily DCA into SOL contracts, grinding it out for 3 years.

Day 87 · Live Trade Report
Today's profit: 10 | Total profit: 5686
Today's addition: 0 | Total margin: 2494
Today's positions opened: 0 | Total positions opened: 66
Current balance: 3192 | Backup (Fighting dogs, tackling scams)

The most real aspect of this market is:
You can’t see the process of those making big bucks,
but those who lose it all, they all walked step by step.

All you big shots and bros and sisters,
If you have reliable paths or quality projects, don’t forget to bring me along!

#StartingFromZero $SOL

Ethereum Foundation's Heavy ETH Sell-off Faces Key Market Supply-Demand Challenge

Recently, the Ethereum Foundation's consecutive large-scale ETH sell-offs have become a hot topic in the market, presenting a dual test for ETH's price and narrative.

In just two weeks, the foundation has sold approximately $47 million worth of ETH to BitMine through OTC trades, bringing the total sold since March 2026 to 30,000 ETH, valued at about $68.92 million. Although the foundation has clearly stated that the proceeds will be used for core operations, protocol development, and ecosystem funding, its systematic sell-off behavior has raised concerns in the market about supply-side pressure.

In the short term, while large OTC sales may not directly impact secondary market liquidity, the ongoing selling behavior is breaking down the market's expectations for ETH as an 'ultrasound money' deflation narrative. There are worries that the foundation's continued reduction as a core ecosystem participant will exert structural selling pressure on ETH prices, undermining investor confidence in its long-term value. Coupled with the current volatility in overall market sentiment, this behavior could amplify short-term fluctuations in ETH.

In the long term, if these funds can genuinely be directed towards protocol upgrades and ecosystem development, it could solidify Ethereum's fundamentals. However, the short-term market anxiety over 'selling pressure' will continue to dominate price expectations. Investors need to closely monitor the foundation's subsequent sell-off pace and the market's ability to digest this behavior, remaining cautious of the volatility risks posed by emotional sell-offs. #以太坊基金会再次向Bitmine出售ETH $ETH

The U.S. CLARITY Act Sets the Tone for Stablecoin Yield Rules, Market Faces Dual Compliance and Model Shift

The finalization of the yield provisions under the CLARITY Act for stablecoins has delivered a critical hammer blow for the compliance pathway in the U.S. stablecoin market, reshaping the entire industry's business models and market expectations.

The core of the new rules is to clearly differentiate between two types of yield models: it prohibits earning interest on deposits solely by holding stablecoins, effectively shutting down the 'deposit arbitrage' avenue for stablecoins, preventing regulatory arbitrage against traditional banking systems; however, it simultaneously allows room for compliant scenarios, permitting rewards linked to actual transactions or activities, akin to credit card points systems, preserving the potential for innovation in stablecoin use cases. This compromise, coordinated by the White House, addresses the core disagreements that previously hindered the bill's progress, moving the U.S. crypto market structural legislation into a substantive sprint phase.

For the market, this is a double-edged sword. In the short term, the new rules eliminate uncertainty around stablecoin yield regulations, benefiting compliant leading stablecoin issuers, while instilling confidence in the rollout of the U.S. crypto regulatory framework, slightly enhancing market risk appetite. However, in the long run, stablecoin products relying on the 'hold-to-earn' model will face compliance pressure, necessitating a shift towards transaction incentives and ecosystem rewards for compliant operational paths. As the bill is expected to be submitted for review to the Senate Banking Committee by mid-May, the timing of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework's rollout will directly impact market liquidity expectations; investors should pay attention to the subsequent legislative review progress and its transmission effect on the stablecoin sector and the entire crypto market. $BTC
$B
$LAB

The easing of US-Iran tensions brings a dual shift of 'geopolitics and compliance' to the crypto market.

The phased de-escalation of US-Iran conflicts is sending mixed signals to the crypto market. Trump has officially notified Congress that military actions against Iran have been terminated, and Iran has submitted a new negotiation proposal, marking the first time they have dropped previous preconditions, injecting a signal of retreating short-term risk-off sentiment into the market. The retreat of oil and commodity prices, which were previously boosted by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, has improved the risk appetite, providing a rebound support for mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in the short term.

However, the strong signal from the compliance front is more concerning: OFAC has for the first time clearly warned that paying Iran's tolls in digital assets also faces sanction risks, directly bringing crypto payment scenarios into the scope of sanction regulation. This means that cryptocurrencies previously seen by some in the market as 'sanction evasion channels' now have their compliance risks in cross-border payments fully exposed, ringing alarm bells for institutions, traders, and related DeFi protocols involved in Middle Eastern operations.

In the short term, the easing of geopolitical conflicts reduces tail risks in the market, and the crypto market may welcome a temporary breathing window; but in the long run, OFAC's statement marks a tightening of US regulation on cross-border cryptocurrency payments. The subsequent rise in compliance costs and restrictions on cross-border payment scenarios will gradually transmit their impacts. The market must be cautious of amplified volatility under the dual pressure of 'retreating risk-off sentiment + tightening compliance,' especially for projects related to Middle Eastern business, which need to reassess their compliance risk exposure. $BTC $ETH $BNB #特朗普称伊朗冲突已结束

This is going to pump, let's get ready to ride the wave! $B

Bullfrog, it's been a month, how many bros are still holding? $LAB