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$BTC 60000 is a very strong short-term support, but currently it can only be considered a 'testing phase bottom', and it is not yet certain that this is the final bottom of this round.
Why is it uncertain that this is the 'final bottom of this round' (risk points)
1. The medium-term trend has not reversed: This week's cumulative decline still exceeds 15%, and the large-scale downward structure has not changed. The rebound looks more like a correction of an oversold condition rather than a trend reversal. 2. Macro and funding constraints: The Federal Reserve's interest rate, the strengthening of the dollar, temporary outflows from ETFs, and institutions still deleveraging make it easy to test support again. 3. Clear consequences of breaking levels: If it effectively falls below 60000 (daily closing failure), the lower space will open up, with 55000-58000 being the next strong support. 4. Bottoming requires time: A bottom is usually 'ground out'; a single-day V-shaped reversal is more of a stop-loss signal and requires oscillation confirmation, sustained volume, and emotional recovery.
Views on the current market operation
- Short-term: 60000 is a critical line; if it holds, look to the pressure zone of 72000-75000; if it cannot stabilize above 70000, it is easy to retest the 65000-68000 consolidation. - Medium-term: Prioritize watching for a consolidation bottom between 60000-75000. Right-side confirmation must meet the following: stabilize the key moving averages, sustained net inflow into ETFs, decline in volatility, and no large liquidations. - Strategy: Do not chase highs; do not blindly go all-in to catch the bottom; it's safer to accumulate in batches around 60000, with strict stop-losses on breakouts; prioritize reducing positions and lowering leverage when rebounding to pressure zones.
Summary in one sentence: 60000 is the 'first strong bottom' of this round of adjustments, but the final bottom is likely to be tested repeatedly and consolidated, either confirming horizontally around 60000 or retesting 55000-58000 for greater solidity.
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