Howie1024
Founder of 137Labs | Long-termist | Programmer | Mining Farm Operator
4 Following
51 Followers
52 Liked
1 Shared
All
Quotes
PINNED
See original
Steady Profit and Effective #逃顶 Review
If you are a steady investor, your goal is to win in the future and to take advantage of cycle dividends as much as possible. This content is suitable for you!
This content was posted on x last night, and the information about the 11.5 peak escape is also on x. If interested, I can transfer it over.
$NDX #纳斯达克 is as strong as expected, making a comprehensive review.
-2 months, the selling plan ratio of #BTC and altcoins, the K-line level is limited and did not sell at the highest point. Crypto began to show a weakening trend from -3 months. From the perspective of US stocks, facing profit pullback and continuation test.
-1 month, happened on 10.11, cost-effective accumulation of altcoins, after data analysis, facing reality delayed Christmas market expectations.
From October 27 to 30, the system liquidity red light gradually lit up, by November 3 it had become extremely serious, on November 4 gave up the buying plan, and adjusted the position ratio again. On November 5, a post was recorded, and on November 6, US stocks began to pull back. Crypto fell accordingly. Another line during this period was also the month of seven sisters' earnings reports, starting from #Tesla, where earnings reports were insufficient to support the stock price, and there were moments of self-doubt as to why the stock market was so strong? Tight liquidity is the clearest decision signal.
Since -3 months, I have been continuously screening altcoin targets and even did a new round of valuation calculations after 10.11. Because TEAM tends to favor low-frequency and left-side traders. Thus, I have also enjoyed the benefits of outperforming many non-contract right-side traders.
Later, during the worst liquidity in the crypto space, leverage was completely cleared. This behavior has often occurred in the past and belongs to calculating liquidity and yield ratios at the right time. In contrast, US stocks are relatively strong and unwilling to break down. We expect the compression of crypto by US stocks to replay, as in March to April, but the result was the opposite. Another factor is the SEC's pessimistic comments on interest rate cuts in December guiding the situation. Therefore, a series of scripts like showing you dead to force you to yield are staged, which have been tried and true.
On weekends and holidays, #SEC's "clever guidance" shows a clear hint of interest rate cuts, #polymarket data instantly reversed, and crypto stopped falling. #SEC has shifted from finding technical reasons to more explicit statements, and US stocks opened as expected.
Starting from November 5, the focus completely shifts away from specific targets and is basically focused on a macro perspective.
Exceeding word count, split into the next article.
If you are a steady investor, your goal is to win in the future and to take advantage of cycle dividends as much as possible. This content is suitable for you!
This content was posted on x last night, and the information about the 11.5 peak escape is also on x. If interested, I can transfer it over.
$NDX #纳斯达克 is as strong as expected, making a comprehensive review.
-2 months, the selling plan ratio of #BTC and altcoins, the K-line level is limited and did not sell at the highest point. Crypto began to show a weakening trend from -3 months. From the perspective of US stocks, facing profit pullback and continuation test.
-1 month, happened on 10.11, cost-effective accumulation of altcoins, after data analysis, facing reality delayed Christmas market expectations.
From October 27 to 30, the system liquidity red light gradually lit up, by November 3 it had become extremely serious, on November 4 gave up the buying plan, and adjusted the position ratio again. On November 5, a post was recorded, and on November 6, US stocks began to pull back. Crypto fell accordingly. Another line during this period was also the month of seven sisters' earnings reports, starting from #Tesla, where earnings reports were insufficient to support the stock price, and there were moments of self-doubt as to why the stock market was so strong? Tight liquidity is the clearest decision signal.
Since -3 months, I have been continuously screening altcoin targets and even did a new round of valuation calculations after 10.11. Because TEAM tends to favor low-frequency and left-side traders. Thus, I have also enjoyed the benefits of outperforming many non-contract right-side traders.
Later, during the worst liquidity in the crypto space, leverage was completely cleared. This behavior has often occurred in the past and belongs to calculating liquidity and yield ratios at the right time. In contrast, US stocks are relatively strong and unwilling to break down. We expect the compression of crypto by US stocks to replay, as in March to April, but the result was the opposite. Another factor is the SEC's pessimistic comments on interest rate cuts in December guiding the situation. Therefore, a series of scripts like showing you dead to force you to yield are staged, which have been tried and true.
On weekends and holidays, #SEC's "clever guidance" shows a clear hint of interest rate cuts, #polymarket data instantly reversed, and crypto stopped falling. #SEC has shifted from finding technical reasons to more explicit statements, and US stocks opened as expected.
Starting from November 5, the focus completely shifts away from specific targets and is basically focused on a macro perspective.
Exceeding word count, split into the next article.
See original
📊Is the market wealthy? Why not buy?
--Let's discuss a few data points👇
Let's talk about the balance sheet situation after the Federal Reserve stopped #QT #tapering on December 1.
Sampling from November 28 and December 4, which are just before and after the stopping of QT on December 1, is representative.
Data comparison:
👉Water level line--Reserve indicator: 2,858,284m, decreased by 38,302m.
This round, the market should not consider the early water level line indicator, which should be appropriately raised, as it has not reached the warning line.
👉Corresponding 💰
--Securities holdings: 6,246,203m, decreased by 10,099m
After all, QT has just stopped, and it remains to be seen.
👉Temporary water source--Repurchase agreements: 17,637m, increased by 14,122m
Understand this as an emergency rescue team; if QE is not initiated in the short term (a few months), the market's means will be various short- and long-term rescue teams and fancy rescue teams.
👉Dormant money--Reverse repurchase agreements: 341,306m, increased by 13,048m
Tools like money market funds that deposit cash into the Federal Reserve, and their growth will absorb market liquidity.
There is an urgent desire to switch the chat content to specific target analysis, but alas, when the brakes are applied and turned around, it has always been like this; the market is fragile, so let’s maintain attention for now.
Current liquidity does not indicate much when financial policies change, but from the data, the warnings from JPMorgan and the New York Bank are still ringing in our ears. The liquidity patchwork has continued into December, which can be considered “safe but with surprises.”
#qt #Fed #FedData
--Let's discuss a few data points👇
Let's talk about the balance sheet situation after the Federal Reserve stopped #QT #tapering on December 1.
Sampling from November 28 and December 4, which are just before and after the stopping of QT on December 1, is representative.
Data comparison:
👉Water level line--Reserve indicator: 2,858,284m, decreased by 38,302m.
This round, the market should not consider the early water level line indicator, which should be appropriately raised, as it has not reached the warning line.
👉Corresponding 💰
--Securities holdings: 6,246,203m, decreased by 10,099m
After all, QT has just stopped, and it remains to be seen.
👉Temporary water source--Repurchase agreements: 17,637m, increased by 14,122m
Understand this as an emergency rescue team; if QE is not initiated in the short term (a few months), the market's means will be various short- and long-term rescue teams and fancy rescue teams.
👉Dormant money--Reverse repurchase agreements: 341,306m, increased by 13,048m
Tools like money market funds that deposit cash into the Federal Reserve, and their growth will absorb market liquidity.
There is an urgent desire to switch the chat content to specific target analysis, but alas, when the brakes are applied and turned around, it has always been like this; the market is fragile, so let’s maintain attention for now.
Current liquidity does not indicate much when financial policies change, but from the data, the warnings from JPMorgan and the New York Bank are still ringing in our ears. The liquidity patchwork has continued into December, which can be considered “safe but with surprises.”
#qt #Fed #FedData
See original
Value analysis and purchasing logic for #ethena and $ENA
#ENA has always been one of the long-term targets on the purchase list.
Past performance shows that when $BTC and $ETH stabilize, the performance of $ENA surpasses the former two, as its business logic is that profit logic is established when both rise, and now #bnb has been added. This round of the altcoin market has not consistently produced an independent trend; when the market cools, $ena also lacks an independent trend, but when the market rebounds, it becomes a lever for upward movement.
From the perspective of team professionalism, the business data disclosure is the most complete and professional. At 10.11, the asset audit report was provided in real-time, which can be considered as having passed a market test (concerns about a repeat of the #LUNA incident).
The report logic from @BitMEXResearch is perplexing; profit points to stakers, driving long-term investors to stake and share in the dividends, which further reduces liquidity—this is easy to understand. The logic is clear and reasonable. The conditions for the protocol's revenue distribution have not yet been activated. There is no need to elaborate further on the calculation of revenue distribution.
Regarding the logic of whether it is worth purchasing in the future:
1. If you believe the cycle has already ended, you should completely abandon $ENA . If you have the patience to wait for liquidity improvement, you can observe and understand.
2. Can the decrease in TVL indicate anything? This value itself changes with market fluctuations; is it not more unreasonable to act when TVL rises to a high level?
3. The total amount of stablecoins has no competitors among neutral strategy targets and is the most strictly included asset.
Given that Black has been calling for higher prices for ENA at high levels, and now this report from Bitmex has emerged, I believe it's not an issue of skill. #DeF i #协议收入 #USDE
#ENA has always been one of the long-term targets on the purchase list.
Past performance shows that when $BTC and $ETH stabilize, the performance of $ENA surpasses the former two, as its business logic is that profit logic is established when both rise, and now #bnb has been added. This round of the altcoin market has not consistently produced an independent trend; when the market cools, $ena also lacks an independent trend, but when the market rebounds, it becomes a lever for upward movement.
From the perspective of team professionalism, the business data disclosure is the most complete and professional. At 10.11, the asset audit report was provided in real-time, which can be considered as having passed a market test (concerns about a repeat of the #LUNA incident).
The report logic from @BitMEXResearch is perplexing; profit points to stakers, driving long-term investors to stake and share in the dividends, which further reduces liquidity—this is easy to understand. The logic is clear and reasonable. The conditions for the protocol's revenue distribution have not yet been activated. There is no need to elaborate further on the calculation of revenue distribution.
Regarding the logic of whether it is worth purchasing in the future:
1. If you believe the cycle has already ended, you should completely abandon $ENA . If you have the patience to wait for liquidity improvement, you can observe and understand.
2. Can the decrease in TVL indicate anything? This value itself changes with market fluctuations; is it not more unreasonable to act when TVL rises to a high level?
3. The total amount of stablecoins has no competitors among neutral strategy targets and is the most strictly included asset.
Given that Black has been calling for higher prices for ENA at high levels, and now this report from Bitmex has emerged, I believe it's not an issue of skill. #DeF i #协议收入 #USDE
See original
🪙Ethereum "whales" take action again: BitMine spends nearly 300 million dollars in a single week, holding over 3.41 million coins $ETH
When the market hesitates, BitMine chooses to steadily increase its holdings. As Ethereum's price adjusts, the company quietly completed the largest single-week purchase of the year, pushing the grand goal of "5% alchemy" one step forward.
👉Strategic increase: Optimize costs Price/net asset calculation see [image]👇
As the crypto market adjusts, BitMine Immersion Technologies has made a counter-cyclical move—through two institutional-level platforms, BitGo and FalconX, purchasing 97,649 ETH in one week, costing about 296 million dollars.
The overall reserves reached approximately 3.41 million coins, valued at over 10.23 billion dollars at current prices. The holding cost was optimized from approximately 4016 dollars to around 3972 dollars.
👉Transformation path: From Bitcoin miner to Ethereum treasury
BitMine $BMNR's initial main business was Bitcoin mining, transforming into a treasury company that has gained favor from top-tier capital, including renowned investment institutions such as MOZAYYX, Founders Fund, ARK Invest, and Pantera Capital.
👉"5% Alchemy": BitMine's grand vision and theoretical foundation
BitMine's strategic core is referred to as "5% alchemy"—the goal is to hold 5% of the total global supply of Ethereum. Currently, the company holds approximately 3.41 million ETH, accounting for 2.8% of the total circulation of Ethereum, steadily progressing towards its established goal.
Founder Tom Lee has repeatedly emphasized that the Ethereum treasury model has advantages over spot ETFs. Through the premium effect of the listed company's stock price, the company can continuously finance and increase its Ethereum holdings, forming a positive cycle that enhances both assets and stock prices.
👉Market position: Absolute leader in institutional Ethereum holdings
Compared to other publicly held companies with Ethereum, BitMine's holding scale has an overwhelming advantage. The second-ranked company holds less than 1 million ETH, while BitMine's reserve scale is nearly three times that.
#Bitmine #bmnr #Eth #Ethereum
When the market hesitates, BitMine chooses to steadily increase its holdings. As Ethereum's price adjusts, the company quietly completed the largest single-week purchase of the year, pushing the grand goal of "5% alchemy" one step forward.
👉Strategic increase: Optimize costs Price/net asset calculation see [image]👇
As the crypto market adjusts, BitMine Immersion Technologies has made a counter-cyclical move—through two institutional-level platforms, BitGo and FalconX, purchasing 97,649 ETH in one week, costing about 296 million dollars.
The overall reserves reached approximately 3.41 million coins, valued at over 10.23 billion dollars at current prices. The holding cost was optimized from approximately 4016 dollars to around 3972 dollars.
👉Transformation path: From Bitcoin miner to Ethereum treasury
BitMine $BMNR's initial main business was Bitcoin mining, transforming into a treasury company that has gained favor from top-tier capital, including renowned investment institutions such as MOZAYYX, Founders Fund, ARK Invest, and Pantera Capital.
👉"5% Alchemy": BitMine's grand vision and theoretical foundation
BitMine's strategic core is referred to as "5% alchemy"—the goal is to hold 5% of the total global supply of Ethereum. Currently, the company holds approximately 3.41 million ETH, accounting for 2.8% of the total circulation of Ethereum, steadily progressing towards its established goal.
Founder Tom Lee has repeatedly emphasized that the Ethereum treasury model has advantages over spot ETFs. Through the premium effect of the listed company's stock price, the company can continuously finance and increase its Ethereum holdings, forming a positive cycle that enhances both assets and stock prices.
👉Market position: Absolute leader in institutional Ethereum holdings
Compared to other publicly held companies with Ethereum, BitMine's holding scale has an overwhelming advantage. The second-ranked company holds less than 1 million ETH, while BitMine's reserve scale is nearly three times that.
#Bitmine #bmnr #Eth #Ethereum
See original
👀PCE lower than expected, December interest rate cut is inevitable☂️
Results of the rate hike cycle: Core PCE gradually declining, inflationary pressure easing.
Signs of economic slowdown: Consumer confidence decreasing, demand weakening, companies facing overcapacity and inventory backlog.
PCE decline: Companies lowering prices to stimulate consumption, price increases slowing down.
Inflationary pressure easing: High interest rates may exacerbate stagflation risks.
Federal Reserve policy space: Low PCE provides a reason for interest rate cuts, releasing market liquidity to support economic recovery.
Conclusion: PCE lower than expected, interest rate cuts become an inevitable choice.
#PCE #美联储降息 #通胀
Results of the rate hike cycle: Core PCE gradually declining, inflationary pressure easing.
Signs of economic slowdown: Consumer confidence decreasing, demand weakening, companies facing overcapacity and inventory backlog.
PCE decline: Companies lowering prices to stimulate consumption, price increases slowing down.
Inflationary pressure easing: High interest rates may exacerbate stagflation risks.
Federal Reserve policy space: Low PCE provides a reason for interest rate cuts, releasing market liquidity to support economic recovery.
Conclusion: PCE lower than expected, interest rate cuts become an inevitable choice.
#PCE #美联储降息 #通胀
See original
💍Essential for beginners, a clear explanation of #缩表 QT and #扩表 QE💍 (Part 2)
--Recently, I have been quite exhausted with the popular science surrounding QT and QE, and I've racked my brains to write this popular science article, preparing to hand it to anyone who doesn't understand; it really can't be more detailed or simpler.
Continuing from the previous article's QE section
👉Scenario 2: Quantitative Tightening (QT) - 'Collect money at maturity, destroy the money'
Objective: To combat inflation by retracting excess liquidity from the market.
Operation: The Federal Reserve passively allows the treasury bonds it holds to mature without reinvesting.
1. Initial State (Before QT starts, following QE)
Federal Reserve: Assets (1 piece of $100 treasury bond), Liabilities ($100 reserves).
U.S. Treasury: owes the Federal Reserve $100 in debt.
2. The treasury bond has matured
This $100 treasury bond has reached its repayment date.
The Treasury needs to return $100 principal to the Federal Reserve. Where does the money come from? The Treasury raises funds through taxation or by issuing new treasury bonds to other investors.
The Treasury transfers $100 in cash to the Federal Reserve's account.
3. Key Step: 'No Reinvestment' under QT
Under QT policy, after the Federal Reserve receives this $100 cash:
It will not use it to purchase new treasury bonds.
Instead, it lets this $100 cash remain 'static' in its own accounts. In accounting terms, this cash has no corresponding liability item to match, thus it is essentially 'canceled' or 'destroyed'.
4. The State After QT Completion
Changes in the Federal Reserve's ledger:
Assets decrease: The $100 treasury bond disappears (converted to $100 cash, but the cash is frozen/destroyed and does not count as effective asset expansion).
Liabilities decrease: The corresponding $100 'bank reserves' are also simultaneously canceled.
Balance sheet size shrinks: from 200 (assets + liabilities) down to 0 (assuming this is the only asset). In reality, it's a slow contraction of tens of trillions of dollars.
Market Effect:
The reserves in the banking system have permanently decreased by $100.
The base currency in the market has been withdrawn, tightening liquidity.
✅ The Core Essence of QT:
Federal Reserve: 'Destroys money' by shrinking its own balance sheet.
Market: Liquidity is permanently withdrawn. This is a slow but ongoing 'draining' process.
#量化紧缩
--Recently, I have been quite exhausted with the popular science surrounding QT and QE, and I've racked my brains to write this popular science article, preparing to hand it to anyone who doesn't understand; it really can't be more detailed or simpler.
Continuing from the previous article's QE section
👉Scenario 2: Quantitative Tightening (QT) - 'Collect money at maturity, destroy the money'
Objective: To combat inflation by retracting excess liquidity from the market.
Operation: The Federal Reserve passively allows the treasury bonds it holds to mature without reinvesting.
1. Initial State (Before QT starts, following QE)
Federal Reserve: Assets (1 piece of $100 treasury bond), Liabilities ($100 reserves).
U.S. Treasury: owes the Federal Reserve $100 in debt.
2. The treasury bond has matured
This $100 treasury bond has reached its repayment date.
The Treasury needs to return $100 principal to the Federal Reserve. Where does the money come from? The Treasury raises funds through taxation or by issuing new treasury bonds to other investors.
The Treasury transfers $100 in cash to the Federal Reserve's account.
3. Key Step: 'No Reinvestment' under QT
Under QT policy, after the Federal Reserve receives this $100 cash:
It will not use it to purchase new treasury bonds.
Instead, it lets this $100 cash remain 'static' in its own accounts. In accounting terms, this cash has no corresponding liability item to match, thus it is essentially 'canceled' or 'destroyed'.
4. The State After QT Completion
Changes in the Federal Reserve's ledger:
Assets decrease: The $100 treasury bond disappears (converted to $100 cash, but the cash is frozen/destroyed and does not count as effective asset expansion).
Liabilities decrease: The corresponding $100 'bank reserves' are also simultaneously canceled.
Balance sheet size shrinks: from 200 (assets + liabilities) down to 0 (assuming this is the only asset). In reality, it's a slow contraction of tens of trillions of dollars.
Market Effect:
The reserves in the banking system have permanently decreased by $100.
The base currency in the market has been withdrawn, tightening liquidity.
✅ The Core Essence of QT:
Federal Reserve: 'Destroys money' by shrinking its own balance sheet.
Market: Liquidity is permanently withdrawn. This is a slow but ongoing 'draining' process.
#量化紧缩
💍Essentials for Beginners: A Clear Explanation of #缩表 QT and #扩表 QE💍 (Part 1)
--Recently, I’ve been exhausted by explanations about QT and QE, and after racking my brain, I’ve written this popular science article, ready to hand it to anyone who doesn’t understand; it really can’t be more detailed or simpler.
👉Story Background: What is a balance sheet?
Imagine the Federal Reserve has a two-column ledger:
📒Left Column "Assets": Records what it owns (mainly government bonds and MBS).
📒Right Column "Liabilities": Records what it owes to others (mainly "bank reserves," which is the money commercial banks have deposited with it).
This ledger must always balance: Assets = Liabilities.
👉Scenario One: Quantitative Easing (QE) - "Printing Money to Buy Bonds, Injecting Liquidity into the Market"
Goal: Stimulate the economy by injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market.
Operation: The Federal Reserve actively purchases government bonds from banks/dealers in the secondary market.
1. Initial State (Before Purchase)
JPMorgan Chase: Holds one government bond with a face value of 100 dollars.
Federal Reserve: Assets (Government Bonds) = 0 dollars, Liabilities (Reserves) = 0 dollars.
2. Federal Reserve Executes QE Purchase
The Federal Reserve wants to buy this 100-dollar government bond from JPMorgan Chase. Where does the money come from? It creates it out of thin air.
The Federal Reserve types a number into JPMorgan Chase's "Reserve Account" at the Federal Reserve: +100 dollars.
At the same time, it records that government bond in its own ledger's "Assets" column.
3. State After Transaction Completion
JPMorgan Chase:
Lost: 1 bond worth 100 dollars.
Gained: An additional 100 dollars in the Federal Reserve's reserve account (this is cash that can be used anytime).
Changes in the Federal Reserve's ledger:
Assets increase: +100 dollars (Government Bonds)
Liabilities increase: +100 dollars (Bank Reserves)
Ledger Balances: 100 (Assets) = 100 (Liabilities)
✅ The Core Essence of QE:
Federal Reserve: “Prints money” by expanding its own balance sheet.
Market: The banks' "reserves" (i.e., base money) permanently increase by 100 dollars. This new money will enter the financial system, and banks can use it for lending and investment, lowering interest rates and stimulating the economy.
It’s like: The Federal Reserve issued a check that it never needs to cash (reserves), buying bonds from the market. Cash in the market increases while bonds decrease.
QT Quantitative Tightening in the Next Article
#量化紧缩
--Recently, I’ve been exhausted by explanations about QT and QE, and after racking my brain, I’ve written this popular science article, ready to hand it to anyone who doesn’t understand; it really can’t be more detailed or simpler.
👉Story Background: What is a balance sheet?
Imagine the Federal Reserve has a two-column ledger:
📒Left Column "Assets": Records what it owns (mainly government bonds and MBS).
📒Right Column "Liabilities": Records what it owes to others (mainly "bank reserves," which is the money commercial banks have deposited with it).
This ledger must always balance: Assets = Liabilities.
👉Scenario One: Quantitative Easing (QE) - "Printing Money to Buy Bonds, Injecting Liquidity into the Market"
Goal: Stimulate the economy by injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market.
Operation: The Federal Reserve actively purchases government bonds from banks/dealers in the secondary market.
1. Initial State (Before Purchase)
JPMorgan Chase: Holds one government bond with a face value of 100 dollars.
Federal Reserve: Assets (Government Bonds) = 0 dollars, Liabilities (Reserves) = 0 dollars.
2. Federal Reserve Executes QE Purchase
The Federal Reserve wants to buy this 100-dollar government bond from JPMorgan Chase. Where does the money come from? It creates it out of thin air.
The Federal Reserve types a number into JPMorgan Chase's "Reserve Account" at the Federal Reserve: +100 dollars.
At the same time, it records that government bond in its own ledger's "Assets" column.
3. State After Transaction Completion
JPMorgan Chase:
Lost: 1 bond worth 100 dollars.
Gained: An additional 100 dollars in the Federal Reserve's reserve account (this is cash that can be used anytime).
Changes in the Federal Reserve's ledger:
Assets increase: +100 dollars (Government Bonds)
Liabilities increase: +100 dollars (Bank Reserves)
Ledger Balances: 100 (Assets) = 100 (Liabilities)
✅ The Core Essence of QE:
Federal Reserve: “Prints money” by expanding its own balance sheet.
Market: The banks' "reserves" (i.e., base money) permanently increase by 100 dollars. This new money will enter the financial system, and banks can use it for lending and investment, lowering interest rates and stimulating the economy.
It’s like: The Federal Reserve issued a check that it never needs to cash (reserves), buying bonds from the market. Cash in the market increases while bonds decrease.
QT Quantitative Tightening in the Next Article
#量化紧缩
See original
💍Essentials for Beginners: A Clear Explanation of #缩表 QT and #扩表 QE💍 (Part 1)
--Recently, I’ve been exhausted by explanations about QT and QE, and after racking my brain, I’ve written this popular science article, ready to hand it to anyone who doesn’t understand; it really can’t be more detailed or simpler.
👉Story Background: What is a balance sheet?
Imagine the Federal Reserve has a two-column ledger:
📒Left Column "Assets": Records what it owns (mainly government bonds and MBS).
📒Right Column "Liabilities": Records what it owes to others (mainly "bank reserves," which is the money commercial banks have deposited with it).
This ledger must always balance: Assets = Liabilities.
👉Scenario One: Quantitative Easing (QE) - "Printing Money to Buy Bonds, Injecting Liquidity into the Market"
Goal: Stimulate the economy by injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market.
Operation: The Federal Reserve actively purchases government bonds from banks/dealers in the secondary market.
1. Initial State (Before Purchase)
JPMorgan Chase: Holds one government bond with a face value of 100 dollars.
Federal Reserve: Assets (Government Bonds) = 0 dollars, Liabilities (Reserves) = 0 dollars.
2. Federal Reserve Executes QE Purchase
The Federal Reserve wants to buy this 100-dollar government bond from JPMorgan Chase. Where does the money come from? It creates it out of thin air.
The Federal Reserve types a number into JPMorgan Chase's "Reserve Account" at the Federal Reserve: +100 dollars.
At the same time, it records that government bond in its own ledger's "Assets" column.
3. State After Transaction Completion
JPMorgan Chase:
Lost: 1 bond worth 100 dollars.
Gained: An additional 100 dollars in the Federal Reserve's reserve account (this is cash that can be used anytime).
Changes in the Federal Reserve's ledger:
Assets increase: +100 dollars (Government Bonds)
Liabilities increase: +100 dollars (Bank Reserves)
Ledger Balances: 100 (Assets) = 100 (Liabilities)
✅ The Core Essence of QE:
Federal Reserve: “Prints money” by expanding its own balance sheet.
Market: The banks' "reserves" (i.e., base money) permanently increase by 100 dollars. This new money will enter the financial system, and banks can use it for lending and investment, lowering interest rates and stimulating the economy.
It’s like: The Federal Reserve issued a check that it never needs to cash (reserves), buying bonds from the market. Cash in the market increases while bonds decrease.
QT Quantitative Tightening in the Next Article
#量化紧缩
--Recently, I’ve been exhausted by explanations about QT and QE, and after racking my brain, I’ve written this popular science article, ready to hand it to anyone who doesn’t understand; it really can’t be more detailed or simpler.
👉Story Background: What is a balance sheet?
Imagine the Federal Reserve has a two-column ledger:
📒Left Column "Assets": Records what it owns (mainly government bonds and MBS).
📒Right Column "Liabilities": Records what it owes to others (mainly "bank reserves," which is the money commercial banks have deposited with it).
This ledger must always balance: Assets = Liabilities.
👉Scenario One: Quantitative Easing (QE) - "Printing Money to Buy Bonds, Injecting Liquidity into the Market"
Goal: Stimulate the economy by injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market.
Operation: The Federal Reserve actively purchases government bonds from banks/dealers in the secondary market.
1. Initial State (Before Purchase)
JPMorgan Chase: Holds one government bond with a face value of 100 dollars.
Federal Reserve: Assets (Government Bonds) = 0 dollars, Liabilities (Reserves) = 0 dollars.
2. Federal Reserve Executes QE Purchase
The Federal Reserve wants to buy this 100-dollar government bond from JPMorgan Chase. Where does the money come from? It creates it out of thin air.
The Federal Reserve types a number into JPMorgan Chase's "Reserve Account" at the Federal Reserve: +100 dollars.
At the same time, it records that government bond in its own ledger's "Assets" column.
3. State After Transaction Completion
JPMorgan Chase:
Lost: 1 bond worth 100 dollars.
Gained: An additional 100 dollars in the Federal Reserve's reserve account (this is cash that can be used anytime).
Changes in the Federal Reserve's ledger:
Assets increase: +100 dollars (Government Bonds)
Liabilities increase: +100 dollars (Bank Reserves)
Ledger Balances: 100 (Assets) = 100 (Liabilities)
✅ The Core Essence of QE:
Federal Reserve: “Prints money” by expanding its own balance sheet.
Market: The banks' "reserves" (i.e., base money) permanently increase by 100 dollars. This new money will enter the financial system, and banks can use it for lending and investment, lowering interest rates and stimulating the economy.
It’s like: The Federal Reserve issued a check that it never needs to cash (reserves), buying bonds from the market. Cash in the market increases while bonds decrease.
QT Quantitative Tightening in the Next Article
#量化紧缩
See original
Review, how to miss a small wave's bottom-fishing.
First phase 84000 to 86000
#VIX about 20 below.
Asian time decline.
The rebound is relatively weak.
Yen risk has not disappeared, and there is a time difference before and after the US-Japan interest rate meeting.
The US stock market opening has basically digested the yen risk, but ultimately did not surpass the previous day's price. (Main hesitation factors)
The bottom-fishing portion does not hope to hold overnight, violating trading rules.
The short-term rebound ratio is less than the assumed decline ratio, considering the profit and loss ratio.
Second phase three replenishment opportunities
Small-level moving average triangle support.
Trump's appointment expresses expectations, the clearest emotional factor.
#btc After stabilizing, the target library performance excellent supplementary position opportunities.
#抄底最佳时机 #比特币 #山寨币抄底机会
First phase 84000 to 86000
#VIX about 20 below.
Asian time decline.
The rebound is relatively weak.
Yen risk has not disappeared, and there is a time difference before and after the US-Japan interest rate meeting.
The US stock market opening has basically digested the yen risk, but ultimately did not surpass the previous day's price. (Main hesitation factors)
The bottom-fishing portion does not hope to hold overnight, violating trading rules.
The short-term rebound ratio is less than the assumed decline ratio, considering the profit and loss ratio.
Second phase three replenishment opportunities
Small-level moving average triangle support.
Trump's appointment expresses expectations, the clearest emotional factor.
#btc After stabilizing, the target library performance excellent supplementary position opportunities.
#抄底最佳时机 #比特币 #山寨币抄底机会
Spamming all day #CarryTrade The results of the US stock market are not moving at all, really disappointing 🤣
Crypto scared itself into dehydration.
I held a gun all day, and in the end, just wiped it and put it in the case.
I wanted to participate in a small wave, but didn't see the rabbit 🐰.
The data disclosure afterwards seems to make it hard to catch the rabbit 🐰.
I'll wait and see tomorrow.
Crypto scared itself into dehydration.
I held a gun all day, and in the end, just wiped it and put it in the case.
I wanted to participate in a small wave, but didn't see the rabbit 🐰.
The data disclosure afterwards seems to make it hard to catch the rabbit 🐰.
I'll wait and see tomorrow.
See original
📊Full Analysis of the Federal Reserve's "Water Gate Operation": Stopping Withdrawal + Short-term Injection, Has Spring Come for the Crypto Market?
On December 1, the Federal Reserve's two key actions were interpreted by the market as an important signal of "liquidity turning". However, many confused the two, mistakenly believing that "large-scale liquidity injection" had arrived. This article will explain these two completely different operational logics in the simplest way👇
🔵Operation One in the Diagram: Officially Stop QT (Quantitative Tightening)
Logic: Stop withdrawing water from the pool
Imagine the Federal Reserve managing a gigantic "financial pool" (bank reserve system):
What has been happening for the past three years? Every month, cash from maturing bonds (government bonds/MBS) flows back into the Federal Reserve's account, and then this cash is permanently destroyed—equivalent to removing a few buckets of water from the pool every month.
What changes on December 1? The cash from maturing bonds will no longer be destroyed, but will be immediately used to buy new bonds—equivalent to stopping the withdrawal of water.
Core impact: The water level in the pool stops declining, and the pressure of liquidity contraction disappears.
🔵Operation Two in the Diagram: $1.35 Billion Overnight Repurchase
Logic: Hand a glass of water to thirsty banks, to be returned tomorrow.
This is a completely independent, short-term operation:
What is it? The Federal Reserve accepts bonds as collateral from banks, providing a one-day cash loan.
Why is it done? To solve the temporary "thirst" of the banking system (short-term funding tightness like quarter-end settlements).
Key feature: The next day, the bank pays back, and the Federal Reserve returns the bonds—this money is just "bridge funding", not a permanent injection.
🚦Important Distinction: Many people got it wrong!
Stopping QT = Strategic Turn: Changing the liquidity trend for the next few years (from contraction to stability).
Overnight repurchase = Tactical Operation: Solving technical issues for the next few days (like adding a bit of lubricant to the engine).
📈Why is the crypto market excited? The logical chain is as follows:
Expectation Reversal: The tightening cycle since 2022 is confirmed to be on "pause".
Water is no longer scarce: The liquidity in the financial system has a bottom line guarantee.
Historical Pattern: After QT ended in 2019, risk assets generally rose.
Bitcoin Characteristics: As a "liquidity-sensitive" high-risk asset, it reacts strongly to such signals.
#美联储 #货币政策 #流动性 #比特币
On December 1, the Federal Reserve's two key actions were interpreted by the market as an important signal of "liquidity turning". However, many confused the two, mistakenly believing that "large-scale liquidity injection" had arrived. This article will explain these two completely different operational logics in the simplest way👇
🔵Operation One in the Diagram: Officially Stop QT (Quantitative Tightening)
Logic: Stop withdrawing water from the pool
Imagine the Federal Reserve managing a gigantic "financial pool" (bank reserve system):
What has been happening for the past three years? Every month, cash from maturing bonds (government bonds/MBS) flows back into the Federal Reserve's account, and then this cash is permanently destroyed—equivalent to removing a few buckets of water from the pool every month.
What changes on December 1? The cash from maturing bonds will no longer be destroyed, but will be immediately used to buy new bonds—equivalent to stopping the withdrawal of water.
Core impact: The water level in the pool stops declining, and the pressure of liquidity contraction disappears.
🔵Operation Two in the Diagram: $1.35 Billion Overnight Repurchase
Logic: Hand a glass of water to thirsty banks, to be returned tomorrow.
This is a completely independent, short-term operation:
What is it? The Federal Reserve accepts bonds as collateral from banks, providing a one-day cash loan.
Why is it done? To solve the temporary "thirst" of the banking system (short-term funding tightness like quarter-end settlements).
Key feature: The next day, the bank pays back, and the Federal Reserve returns the bonds—this money is just "bridge funding", not a permanent injection.
🚦Important Distinction: Many people got it wrong!
Stopping QT = Strategic Turn: Changing the liquidity trend for the next few years (from contraction to stability).
Overnight repurchase = Tactical Operation: Solving technical issues for the next few days (like adding a bit of lubricant to the engine).
📈Why is the crypto market excited? The logical chain is as follows:
Expectation Reversal: The tightening cycle since 2022 is confirmed to be on "pause".
Water is no longer scarce: The liquidity in the financial system has a bottom line guarantee.
Historical Pattern: After QT ended in 2019, risk assets generally rose.
Bitcoin Characteristics: As a "liquidity-sensitive" high-risk asset, it reacts strongly to such signals.
#美联储 #货币政策 #流动性 #比特币
See original
Trump understands expectation management.
See original
❤️🔥Japan's Economic Outlook: Three Major Risks to Watch in the Future❤️🔥
Yesterday, #加密 "consciously" slimmed down, #美股 slightly lower than the previous day, based on the decline in the Asian time zone and the U.S. being in a less active trading period from Thanksgiving to Christmas, the market should be viewed objectively. Combining the current situation, this article is supplemented with key points to focus on.
Current Situation:
Although the impact of carry trading may be milder than in August 2024, the market may still underestimate or overestimate the effects. Instead of panicking and guessing, it is better to focus on three key points.
Three Key Points to Focus On:
📌 Whether Japan's core-core inflation data exceeds expectations upward.
📌 The difference in policy rhythm between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, especially the scenario where the Bank of Japan raises interest rates ahead of schedule and the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts.
📌 The sustainability of the divergence between the yen exchange rate and the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential, as well as potential trigger events for a sudden increase in volatility.
👉 Japan's Core-Core Inflation Exceeds Expectations Upward
With the aggressive fiscal policy implemented by the high government, the depreciation of the yen and rising inflation pressure may lead to core inflation data exceeding expectations upward. If core inflation continues to rise, the Bank of Japan may have to raise interest rates ahead of schedule to respond to inflationary pressures, further increasing the volatility of the yen exchange rate.
👉 The Difference in Policy Rhythm Between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve
The script is that there is a 10-day time difference between the U.S. and Japanese interest rate policies, which is a sequential relationship. Given the lack of market confidence and its fragility, whether there will be a scenario where the Bank of Japan raises interest rates ahead of schedule and the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts. (Prepare plans, respect data, and there is no need to worry unnecessarily)
👉 Divergence in Japan-U.S. Interest Rate Differential and Sudden Increase in Volatility
Although the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential has narrowed from 3.7% at the beginning of the year to 2.5%, it is still at a historically high level. Whether the yen-related volatility index (such as the 3-month implied volatility) will deviate from the current low range, especially as policy uncertainty increases.
#日央行加息 #日元汇率 #套息交易
Yesterday, #加密 "consciously" slimmed down, #美股 slightly lower than the previous day, based on the decline in the Asian time zone and the U.S. being in a less active trading period from Thanksgiving to Christmas, the market should be viewed objectively. Combining the current situation, this article is supplemented with key points to focus on.
Current Situation:
Although the impact of carry trading may be milder than in August 2024, the market may still underestimate or overestimate the effects. Instead of panicking and guessing, it is better to focus on three key points.
Three Key Points to Focus On:
📌 Whether Japan's core-core inflation data exceeds expectations upward.
📌 The difference in policy rhythm between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, especially the scenario where the Bank of Japan raises interest rates ahead of schedule and the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts.
📌 The sustainability of the divergence between the yen exchange rate and the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential, as well as potential trigger events for a sudden increase in volatility.
👉 Japan's Core-Core Inflation Exceeds Expectations Upward
With the aggressive fiscal policy implemented by the high government, the depreciation of the yen and rising inflation pressure may lead to core inflation data exceeding expectations upward. If core inflation continues to rise, the Bank of Japan may have to raise interest rates ahead of schedule to respond to inflationary pressures, further increasing the volatility of the yen exchange rate.
👉 The Difference in Policy Rhythm Between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve
The script is that there is a 10-day time difference between the U.S. and Japanese interest rate policies, which is a sequential relationship. Given the lack of market confidence and its fragility, whether there will be a scenario where the Bank of Japan raises interest rates ahead of schedule and the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts. (Prepare plans, respect data, and there is no need to worry unnecessarily)
👉 Divergence in Japan-U.S. Interest Rate Differential and Sudden Increase in Volatility
Although the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential has narrowed from 3.7% at the beginning of the year to 2.5%, it is still at a historically high level. Whether the yen-related volatility index (such as the 3-month implied volatility) will deviate from the current low range, especially as policy uncertainty increases.
#日央行加息 #日元汇率 #套息交易
🇯🇵#日本加息 Is it a case of a leaking roof coinciding with continuous rain, or is it a case of a worrywart? (Part II)
Connecting to the first part
https://www.maxweb.red/zh-CN/square/post/33131397600081
👉Currently, the 2-year Japanese government bond yield has surpassed 1%, and the market is betting a 76% probability on a rate hike in December. These are no longer speculations but actual numbers reflected in the pricing. This is fundamentally different from the ‘tightening panic’ purely triggered by ‘expectations’ in 2024.
🔥The real risk point lies in: the world’s largest ‘arbitrage trading’ (Carry Trade) will face a test once Japan starts raising interest rates. The orderly nature of its unwinding process depends not only on the magnitude of the Bank of Japan's rate hike (as referenced, a simple 1% is not fatal), but also on an external variable— the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve lowers rates in coordination, the turbulence may ease; if the Federal Reserve takes a tough stance, it could force the Bank of Japan into aggressive tightening, consequently triggering a surge in the probability of a crowded trade unwinding.
🔥Therefore, the core of this crisis is not the rate hike itself, but the hasty shift of trillions of dollars in capital that may be triggered by the misalignment of the two major central banks.
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
Connecting to the first part
https://www.maxweb.red/zh-CN/square/post/33131397600081
👉Currently, the 2-year Japanese government bond yield has surpassed 1%, and the market is betting a 76% probability on a rate hike in December. These are no longer speculations but actual numbers reflected in the pricing. This is fundamentally different from the ‘tightening panic’ purely triggered by ‘expectations’ in 2024.
🔥The real risk point lies in: the world’s largest ‘arbitrage trading’ (Carry Trade) will face a test once Japan starts raising interest rates. The orderly nature of its unwinding process depends not only on the magnitude of the Bank of Japan's rate hike (as referenced, a simple 1% is not fatal), but also on an external variable— the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve lowers rates in coordination, the turbulence may ease; if the Federal Reserve takes a tough stance, it could force the Bank of Japan into aggressive tightening, consequently triggering a surge in the probability of a crowded trade unwinding.
🔥Therefore, the core of this crisis is not the rate hike itself, but the hasty shift of trillions of dollars in capital that may be triggered by the misalignment of the two major central banks.
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
See original
Spamming all day #CarryTrade The results of the US stock market are not moving at all, really disappointing 🤣
Crypto scared itself into dehydration.
I held a gun all day, and in the end, just wiped it and put it in the case.
I wanted to participate in a small wave, but didn't see the rabbit 🐰.
The data disclosure afterwards seems to make it hard to catch the rabbit 🐰.
I'll wait and see tomorrow.
Crypto scared itself into dehydration.
I held a gun all day, and in the end, just wiped it and put it in the case.
I wanted to participate in a small wave, but didn't see the rabbit 🐰.
The data disclosure afterwards seems to make it hard to catch the rabbit 🐰.
I'll wait and see tomorrow.
See original
The US stock market is stagnant, purely crypto self-indulgence.
Did you buy the dip today?
$BTC Today dropped below 86000, I originally thought it was just a regular sell-off.
Until I saw a number: 76%.
Then I spent several hours clarifying the entire logic.
The conclusion sends chills down my spine: This could be a precursor to a $14 trillion chain collapse.
76% probability: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in December.
The most talked-about thing in the market these days is that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates on December 18-19.
It's not a possibility; traders have already given a 76% probability, and the probability for a rate hike in January is as high as 90%.
The statements from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have been very clear recently: 'We will weigh the pros and cons of raising the policy rate based on the economic, inflation, and financial market situations, and make decisions at the appropriate time.'
Until I saw a number: 76%.
Then I spent several hours clarifying the entire logic.
The conclusion sends chills down my spine: This could be a precursor to a $14 trillion chain collapse.
76% probability: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in December.
The most talked-about thing in the market these days is that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates on December 18-19.
It's not a possibility; traders have already given a 76% probability, and the probability for a rate hike in January is as high as 90%.
The statements from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have been very clear recently: 'We will weigh the pros and cons of raising the policy rate based on the economic, inflation, and financial market situations, and make decisions at the appropriate time.'
See original
🇯🇵#日本加息 Is it a case of a leaking roof coinciding with continuous rain, or is it a case of a worrywart? (Part II)
Connecting to the first part
https://www.maxweb.red/zh-CN/square/post/33131397600081
👉Currently, the 2-year Japanese government bond yield has surpassed 1%, and the market is betting a 76% probability on a rate hike in December. These are no longer speculations but actual numbers reflected in the pricing. This is fundamentally different from the ‘tightening panic’ purely triggered by ‘expectations’ in 2024.
🔥The real risk point lies in: the world’s largest ‘arbitrage trading’ (Carry Trade) will face a test once Japan starts raising interest rates. The orderly nature of its unwinding process depends not only on the magnitude of the Bank of Japan's rate hike (as referenced, a simple 1% is not fatal), but also on an external variable— the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve lowers rates in coordination, the turbulence may ease; if the Federal Reserve takes a tough stance, it could force the Bank of Japan into aggressive tightening, consequently triggering a surge in the probability of a crowded trade unwinding.
🔥Therefore, the core of this crisis is not the rate hike itself, but the hasty shift of trillions of dollars in capital that may be triggered by the misalignment of the two major central banks.
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
Connecting to the first part
https://www.maxweb.red/zh-CN/square/post/33131397600081
👉Currently, the 2-year Japanese government bond yield has surpassed 1%, and the market is betting a 76% probability on a rate hike in December. These are no longer speculations but actual numbers reflected in the pricing. This is fundamentally different from the ‘tightening panic’ purely triggered by ‘expectations’ in 2024.
🔥The real risk point lies in: the world’s largest ‘arbitrage trading’ (Carry Trade) will face a test once Japan starts raising interest rates. The orderly nature of its unwinding process depends not only on the magnitude of the Bank of Japan's rate hike (as referenced, a simple 1% is not fatal), but also on an external variable— the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve lowers rates in coordination, the turbulence may ease; if the Federal Reserve takes a tough stance, it could force the Bank of Japan into aggressive tightening, consequently triggering a surge in the probability of a crowded trade unwinding.
🔥Therefore, the core of this crisis is not the rate hike itself, but the hasty shift of trillions of dollars in capital that may be triggered by the misalignment of the two major central banks.
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
🇯🇵#日本加息 Is it a case of rain on an already leaky roof, or is it a case of undue worry? (Part One)
🔥 The Bank of Japan has issued a strong signal for interest rate hikes, and the market believes the probability of a rate hike on December 19 has soared to 64%-76%.
🔥 The 2-year yield has broken 1% for the first time since 2008.
🔥 The yen's exchange rate is at a historical low, having once fallen below 157.9 against the dollar.
👉 Many people have been discussing Japan's rate hikes in recent days, primarily out of fear of a large retreat from 'arbitrage trading,' which could trigger a wave of stock sell-offs related to arbitrage trading, and even a double hit on both stocks and bonds.
⏳ In times of panic, even crises that have not materialized become crises.
⏳ In times of rising markets, looming crises may go unnoticed.
👉 What pressure does the yen face?
The significant interest rate differential is a major source of the massive and ongoing outflow pressure on yen capital. This pressure is one of the core driving forces behind yen depreciation and has created a self-reinforcing vicious cycle.
⏳ Depreciation expectations → Capital outflow → Intensified depreciation → Reinforced depreciation expectations and further outflow.
When the interest rate differential changes rapidly, the logic of arbitrage may cease to exist, or even lead to a rush to exit, note that it is rapid. (We will discuss the logic of arbitrage opportunities later)
👉 Looking back at the June 2024 carry trade incident:
It was triggered by the market's strong expectation that the Bank of Japan would begin historic tightening, leading to a collapse of the yen's exchange rate (once breaking 160). Traders, concerned about future losses, preemptively sold Japanese government bonds, causing the yield on the 10-year bonds to surge past the psychological barrier of 1%, which in turn triggered concerns about rising market interest rates impacting corporate valuations and potential massive losses for financial institutions, eventually leading to a self-fulfilling double hit on both stocks and bonds before an actual rate hike had even occurred.
Transitioning to Part Two
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
🔥 The Bank of Japan has issued a strong signal for interest rate hikes, and the market believes the probability of a rate hike on December 19 has soared to 64%-76%.
🔥 The 2-year yield has broken 1% for the first time since 2008.
🔥 The yen's exchange rate is at a historical low, having once fallen below 157.9 against the dollar.
👉 Many people have been discussing Japan's rate hikes in recent days, primarily out of fear of a large retreat from 'arbitrage trading,' which could trigger a wave of stock sell-offs related to arbitrage trading, and even a double hit on both stocks and bonds.
⏳ In times of panic, even crises that have not materialized become crises.
⏳ In times of rising markets, looming crises may go unnoticed.
👉 What pressure does the yen face?
The significant interest rate differential is a major source of the massive and ongoing outflow pressure on yen capital. This pressure is one of the core driving forces behind yen depreciation and has created a self-reinforcing vicious cycle.
⏳ Depreciation expectations → Capital outflow → Intensified depreciation → Reinforced depreciation expectations and further outflow.
When the interest rate differential changes rapidly, the logic of arbitrage may cease to exist, or even lead to a rush to exit, note that it is rapid. (We will discuss the logic of arbitrage opportunities later)
👉 Looking back at the June 2024 carry trade incident:
It was triggered by the market's strong expectation that the Bank of Japan would begin historic tightening, leading to a collapse of the yen's exchange rate (once breaking 160). Traders, concerned about future losses, preemptively sold Japanese government bonds, causing the yield on the 10-year bonds to surge past the psychological barrier of 1%, which in turn triggered concerns about rising market interest rates impacting corporate valuations and potential massive losses for financial institutions, eventually leading to a self-fulfilling double hit on both stocks and bonds before an actual rate hike had even occurred.
Transitioning to Part Two
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
See original
🇯🇵#日本加息 Is it a case of rain on an already leaky roof, or is it a case of undue worry? (Part One)
🔥 The Bank of Japan has issued a strong signal for interest rate hikes, and the market believes the probability of a rate hike on December 19 has soared to 64%-76%.
🔥 The 2-year yield has broken 1% for the first time since 2008.
🔥 The yen's exchange rate is at a historical low, having once fallen below 157.9 against the dollar.
👉 Many people have been discussing Japan's rate hikes in recent days, primarily out of fear of a large retreat from 'arbitrage trading,' which could trigger a wave of stock sell-offs related to arbitrage trading, and even a double hit on both stocks and bonds.
⏳ In times of panic, even crises that have not materialized become crises.
⏳ In times of rising markets, looming crises may go unnoticed.
👉 What pressure does the yen face?
The significant interest rate differential is a major source of the massive and ongoing outflow pressure on yen capital. This pressure is one of the core driving forces behind yen depreciation and has created a self-reinforcing vicious cycle.
⏳ Depreciation expectations → Capital outflow → Intensified depreciation → Reinforced depreciation expectations and further outflow.
When the interest rate differential changes rapidly, the logic of arbitrage may cease to exist, or even lead to a rush to exit, note that it is rapid. (We will discuss the logic of arbitrage opportunities later)
👉 Looking back at the June 2024 carry trade incident:
It was triggered by the market's strong expectation that the Bank of Japan would begin historic tightening, leading to a collapse of the yen's exchange rate (once breaking 160). Traders, concerned about future losses, preemptively sold Japanese government bonds, causing the yield on the 10-year bonds to surge past the psychological barrier of 1%, which in turn triggered concerns about rising market interest rates impacting corporate valuations and potential massive losses for financial institutions, eventually leading to a self-fulfilling double hit on both stocks and bonds before an actual rate hike had even occurred.
Transitioning to Part Two
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
🔥 The Bank of Japan has issued a strong signal for interest rate hikes, and the market believes the probability of a rate hike on December 19 has soared to 64%-76%.
🔥 The 2-year yield has broken 1% for the first time since 2008.
🔥 The yen's exchange rate is at a historical low, having once fallen below 157.9 against the dollar.
👉 Many people have been discussing Japan's rate hikes in recent days, primarily out of fear of a large retreat from 'arbitrage trading,' which could trigger a wave of stock sell-offs related to arbitrage trading, and even a double hit on both stocks and bonds.
⏳ In times of panic, even crises that have not materialized become crises.
⏳ In times of rising markets, looming crises may go unnoticed.
👉 What pressure does the yen face?
The significant interest rate differential is a major source of the massive and ongoing outflow pressure on yen capital. This pressure is one of the core driving forces behind yen depreciation and has created a self-reinforcing vicious cycle.
⏳ Depreciation expectations → Capital outflow → Intensified depreciation → Reinforced depreciation expectations and further outflow.
When the interest rate differential changes rapidly, the logic of arbitrage may cease to exist, or even lead to a rush to exit, note that it is rapid. (We will discuss the logic of arbitrage opportunities later)
👉 Looking back at the June 2024 carry trade incident:
It was triggered by the market's strong expectation that the Bank of Japan would begin historic tightening, leading to a collapse of the yen's exchange rate (once breaking 160). Traders, concerned about future losses, preemptively sold Japanese government bonds, causing the yield on the 10-year bonds to surge past the psychological barrier of 1%, which in turn triggered concerns about rising market interest rates impacting corporate valuations and potential massive losses for financial institutions, eventually leading to a self-fulfilling double hit on both stocks and bonds before an actual rate hike had even occurred.
Transitioning to Part Two
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
Steady Profit and Effective #逃顶 Review
If you are a steady investor, your goal is to win in the future and to take advantage of cycle dividends as much as possible. This content is suitable for you!
This content was posted on x last night, and the information about the 11.5 peak escape is also on x. If interested, I can transfer it over.
$NDX #纳斯达克 is as strong as expected, making a comprehensive review.
-2 months, the selling plan ratio of #BTC and altcoins, the K-line level is limited and did not sell at the highest point. Crypto began to show a weakening trend from -3 months. From the perspective of US stocks, facing profit pullback and continuation test.
-1 month, happened on 10.11, cost-effective accumulation of altcoins, after data analysis, facing reality delayed Christmas market expectations.
From October 27 to 30, the system liquidity red light gradually lit up, by November 3 it had become extremely serious, on November 4 gave up the buying plan, and adjusted the position ratio again. On November 5, a post was recorded, and on November 6, US stocks began to pull back. Crypto fell accordingly. Another line during this period was also the month of seven sisters' earnings reports, starting from #Tesla, where earnings reports were insufficient to support the stock price, and there were moments of self-doubt as to why the stock market was so strong? Tight liquidity is the clearest decision signal.
Since -3 months, I have been continuously screening altcoin targets and even did a new round of valuation calculations after 10.11. Because TEAM tends to favor low-frequency and left-side traders. Thus, I have also enjoyed the benefits of outperforming many non-contract right-side traders.
Later, during the worst liquidity in the crypto space, leverage was completely cleared. This behavior has often occurred in the past and belongs to calculating liquidity and yield ratios at the right time. In contrast, US stocks are relatively strong and unwilling to break down. We expect the compression of crypto by US stocks to replay, as in March to April, but the result was the opposite. Another factor is the SEC's pessimistic comments on interest rate cuts in December guiding the situation. Therefore, a series of scripts like showing you dead to force you to yield are staged, which have been tried and true.
On weekends and holidays, #SEC's "clever guidance" shows a clear hint of interest rate cuts, #polymarket data instantly reversed, and crypto stopped falling. #SEC has shifted from finding technical reasons to more explicit statements, and US stocks opened as expected.
Starting from November 5, the focus completely shifts away from specific targets and is basically focused on a macro perspective.
Exceeding word count, split into the next article.
If you are a steady investor, your goal is to win in the future and to take advantage of cycle dividends as much as possible. This content is suitable for you!
This content was posted on x last night, and the information about the 11.5 peak escape is also on x. If interested, I can transfer it over.
$NDX #纳斯达克 is as strong as expected, making a comprehensive review.
-2 months, the selling plan ratio of #BTC and altcoins, the K-line level is limited and did not sell at the highest point. Crypto began to show a weakening trend from -3 months. From the perspective of US stocks, facing profit pullback and continuation test.
-1 month, happened on 10.11, cost-effective accumulation of altcoins, after data analysis, facing reality delayed Christmas market expectations.
From October 27 to 30, the system liquidity red light gradually lit up, by November 3 it had become extremely serious, on November 4 gave up the buying plan, and adjusted the position ratio again. On November 5, a post was recorded, and on November 6, US stocks began to pull back. Crypto fell accordingly. Another line during this period was also the month of seven sisters' earnings reports, starting from #Tesla, where earnings reports were insufficient to support the stock price, and there were moments of self-doubt as to why the stock market was so strong? Tight liquidity is the clearest decision signal.
Since -3 months, I have been continuously screening altcoin targets and even did a new round of valuation calculations after 10.11. Because TEAM tends to favor low-frequency and left-side traders. Thus, I have also enjoyed the benefits of outperforming many non-contract right-side traders.
Later, during the worst liquidity in the crypto space, leverage was completely cleared. This behavior has often occurred in the past and belongs to calculating liquidity and yield ratios at the right time. In contrast, US stocks are relatively strong and unwilling to break down. We expect the compression of crypto by US stocks to replay, as in March to April, but the result was the opposite. Another factor is the SEC's pessimistic comments on interest rate cuts in December guiding the situation. Therefore, a series of scripts like showing you dead to force you to yield are staged, which have been tried and true.
On weekends and holidays, #SEC's "clever guidance" shows a clear hint of interest rate cuts, #polymarket data instantly reversed, and crypto stopped falling. #SEC has shifted from finding technical reasons to more explicit statements, and US stocks opened as expected.
Starting from November 5, the focus completely shifts away from specific targets and is basically focused on a macro perspective.
Exceeding word count, split into the next article.
See original
Waking up early, $BTC price 86000. No need to boast about how amazing it is; it's just about having a plan set when buying, and analyzing conditions to execute when triggered. Yesterday I mentioned being in a state of 'ignorance,' but today I can take a good look at the market.
Additionally, I've recently written a lot about macro topics; rather than saying it's research and popular science, it's more about organizing thoughts during downtime.
#BTC #二级
Additionally, I've recently written a lot about macro topics; rather than saying it's research and popular science, it's more about organizing thoughts during downtime.
#BTC #二级
With the rebound of $BTC , reaching the target price of 91000, the expected phase price has been achieved. Sell the corresponding bottoming part of the principal, and keep the profit as long-term holding of $BTC.
See original
#zec The cumulative amount of shorts is quite a lot!
The zec mining machine is not worth buying!!!
The zec mining machine is not worth buying!!!
Login to explore more contents
Explore the latest crypto news
⚡️ Be a part of the latests discussions in crypto
💬 Interact with your favorite creators
👍 Enjoy content that interests you
Email / Phone number
Trending Topics
BTCVSGOLD
8.9M views
64,123 Discussing
Bitcoin has lost 50% of its value against GOLD, down from 40 Gold ounces traded for 1BTC in January 2025, to 21 Gold ounces for 1BTC
The last time BTC traded at 21 Gold ounces, the price of Gold was between $2000-2500
The market agreed that BTC is over-valued against Gold! And is down 50% since then!
#BTCVSGOLD
KaiZXBT
11 Likes
8.4k views
BinanceBlockchainWeek
31.1M views
102,901 Discussing
WriteToEarnUpgrade
36.5M views
178,643 Discussing
