The reason for the Panic Sell partly comes from the fear of a new virus in China similar to Covid 2020. This is compounded by news that the U.S. Justice Department has allowed the sale of 6.5 trillion $ #BTC , leading to a sharp decline.
One should be cautious as there may be a massacre in the market because the second half of January still has a series of macroeconomic news regarding inflation, the presidential inauguration, and Fed interest rates.
My position right now is fully in USDT since December 20th. Saying this, I fear 90% of you will be sad, but I hope for a strong massacre to end the pain; a significant drop would multiply x times to get this year over with, it's just too exhausting.
2025 is optimistic but not complacent, always cautious step by step.!
Just gradually guessing the dealer's intentions to play this year.!
Many of you may wonder, according to the Chart, where do I expect Altcoin SS to happen?
The answer is that I most expect the Altcoin SS to occur in the green wave 5. As long as MM wants to push it up, the price can increase from the range of 85-92K back to the red peak range of 108-130K, which is more than enough for Altcoin to multiply several times. The important thing is the dealer's intentions to release Dom and push Altcoin up or not.
Although trying very hard, it is impossible to make the 1M candle of #BTC turn green.
Facing the fear that there will still be a decrease, it cannot enter a Bear Market just yet; it is merely completing wave 4 in order to await a more brilliant wave 5 ahead.
So, where do you think this decrease in wave 4 will stop so that it can turn around and continue running wave 5?
Currently, we need to answer the question of whether the 4 blue colors have stopped. The 4 blue colors can stop at 85-92K to continue with the 5 blue colors.
The other day it came back to 92K and this morning it closed the candle above 98K, so I see that the likelihood is high that the 4 blue colors have finished running and stopped at 92K. Running the 5 blue colors will probably take until the end of January to complete, and we will reassess then.
I have written enough in text for you to understand; further explanation would be quite lengthy, so I invite you to the next Live session to discuss more.
LuckyStudent02
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#BTC Update 25/12/2024 Long-term timeframe 1D and above
Please note that the 1D timeframe and above can run for a few weeks or 1-2 months before completion.
The H1-H4 timeframe can run for a few days.
The red peak number 3 can stop anywhere in the range of 108K-130K.
The blue 12345 represents the small wave of the red wave 3.
The blue peak 5 can also stop anywhere in the range of 108K-130K to form the red peak number 3.
Assuming the red wave 3 has ended at the peak of 108K, then the blue 4 will not stop in the range of 92K-85K but will have a D1 candle closing below 85K to confirm that the price can drop further towards the red bottom 4 (50-75K) before continuing to rise according to the red wave 5.
Here, I am leaning towards it making one more blue wave 5 before truly reversing down. This means that the price could at least touch the peak of 108K one more time, and if more bullish, it could reach the target of 130K.
The range of 92xxx-85000 is where the blue number 4 must stop, and the D1 candle closing at 7 AM today, 25/2/2024, plays a role in confirming whether the blue number 4 has stopped or not. Currently, I believe there is a 70% chance that the blue number 4 has stopped at 92xxx.
The scenario of dropping to 85-89K for the blue number 4 can still occur, but it's not highly likely. And with the Altcoin purchased on 20/12, even if #BTC drops to 89K, that Altcoin would still only return to around the entry price of 20/12, and it hasn't even touched the lower boundary of the buying zone that I provided to you privately, so you can feel somewhat reassured.
#BTC Update 25/12/2024 Long-term timeframe 1D and above
Please note that the 1D timeframe and above can run for a few weeks or 1-2 months before completion.
The H1-H4 timeframe can run for a few days.
The red peak number 3 can stop anywhere in the range of 108K-130K.
The blue 12345 represents the small wave of the red wave 3.
The blue peak 5 can also stop anywhere in the range of 108K-130K to form the red peak number 3.
Assuming the red wave 3 has ended at the peak of 108K, then the blue 4 will not stop in the range of 92K-85K but will have a D1 candle closing below 85K to confirm that the price can drop further towards the red bottom 4 (50-75K) before continuing to rise according to the red wave 5.
Here, I am leaning towards it making one more blue wave 5 before truly reversing down. This means that the price could at least touch the peak of 108K one more time, and if more bullish, it could reach the target of 130K.
The range of 92xxx-85000 is where the blue number 4 must stop, and the D1 candle closing at 7 AM today, 25/2/2024, plays a role in confirming whether the blue number 4 has stopped or not. Currently, I believe there is a 70% chance that the blue number 4 has stopped at 92xxx.
The scenario of dropping to 85-89K for the blue number 4 can still occur, but it's not highly likely. And with the Altcoin purchased on 20/12, even if #BTC drops to 89K, that Altcoin would still only return to around the entry price of 20/12, and it hasn't even touched the lower boundary of the buying zone that I provided to you privately, so you can feel somewhat reassured.
LuckyStudent02
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Why is this season hard to play? Because this season has not yet reached the Fomo level, so we can't just dive in right away. It's similar to the 2020-221 Trend Defi, where GameFi activated the Fomo for the Market.
The Fomo level this season I've mentioned before, it is when #ETH Breakout ATH 4900$ that it might trigger Fomo 😎
Why is this season hard to play? Because this season has not yet reached the Fomo level, so we can't just dive in right away. It's similar to the 2020-221 Trend Defi, where GameFi activated the Fomo for the Market.
The Fomo level this season I've mentioned before, it is when #ETH Breakout ATH 4900$ that it might trigger Fomo 😎
This time I was also lucky and determined to save money to bargain with the Market. After the STL break-even and the Market quickly surged on December 9, I was also determined to bargain without FOMO, either Full USDT for the Tet holiday, or only buy if it drops by 30%.
Fortunately, I have now waited to buy at a good price. Assuming I invest 100K$ and can negotiate a 20-30% discount, that would save me 20-30K$ .
Coming up, there are signs of an increase again, so I'll go Full Margin for a historic life-changing moment =))) Or back to the cow pen =))
This season, I feel quite different from 2021. There are too many coins, making it overwhelming, and each project covers multiple areas. I have consulted many well-known researchers, and each one follows a different direction, and even those directions vary greatly, with too many names. So this season, my viewpoint is to enjoy the rain as long as it lasts; x3 x4 is happiness. Setting targets too high that are not achievable will lead to disappointment.
Currently, I also feel that it is no longer suitable to call for purchases based on the general trend of 70-80% of the market, as we have already passed the wave of calls like that in October-November 2024. Now, each Altcoin will begin to separate and run its own wave until the market signals a distribution phase and reverses, ending the Altcoin season.
After careful consideration, I have filtered out a list of 14 codes that fit the trend but also align with the current technical analysis as it is still close to entry. I will share specific entry points privately later, while the list below includes the codes I will closely monitor and not pay attention to other external codes, as in an uptrend, any code can rise; the difference lies in timing and entry.
The first 7 codes in the list are already on Binance and are at a safer level, with entry points needing to be separate for each code. The remaining 7 codes are not yet on Binance or their prices are quite high compared to entry, but they are trending codes. I keep them in the list to closely follow and wait for a good entry point to enter.
One keyword I highly value this season is AI Agent. Closely following this keyword will provide significant opportunities.
I predict that Altcoin will enter a strong upward wave when #ETH breaks the ATH of $4900. Let's wait for #ETH to surge and break the ATH, leading the entire market.
Feel free to share and save for further reference.
After 2 days of News for the Market to run according to its own will, I have a bit of an update about #BTC as follows:
News #CPI, #PPI, and unemployment all came out not good, but the price did not act according to the News. Perhaps the drop from 102K to 94K was already a preemptive move for the 2 News. Therefore, a new model is forming here. The model is running an additional wave 5. Wave 5 can stop at any position, but at a minimum, it is the old peak of 104xxx$, with a maximum of 116-130K for wave 5.
To confirm that wave 5 is running, a few H4 candles need to close above 102500$. Conversely, if a few H4 candles close below 94000$ , it will confirm a downward wave to a minimum of 90xxx$, with a maximum of 78-85K.
During the time this price confirmation runs, I will finish selecting the Altcoin list as well as my Limit buy entries. I will post for you after this Update post.
Trump wins, #BTC immediately reverses from 66xxx creating ATH.
Currently, it is still unknown where the peak of #BTC will be, but based on a thick diagonal line in the past, the target for #BTC will be around 8xK in the red circled area.
In the past, there have been up to 6 times when the #BTC price touched the black line, and there were very strong actions (the red circled points), so for #BTC to drop sharply, it will likely need to reach the 8xK red area before any action occurs.
The current price of 73xxx is hard to push up immediately, let's wait in the 69x-70x range to catch it again along with buying the remaining amount for Altcoins there.
Here I emphasize the expectation that Trump will take office > Gold #XAU will Sideway and distribute at the peak > People will start selling gold to shift investments to other directions, specifically into Crypto.
The time for the #BTC wave to reach 8xK will start from now until the end of January when Trump officially takes office. (If the price follows the plan, then close to that time we will consider whether the market will shift to a decline at the time of 20/1 or not).
I will temporarily update a long-term plan like this, details about the short-term H1-H4 for Long Short Future I will try to post soon.
News about war in the Middle East made the market turn bad last night.
The price fell to the first strong support zone around 60500 as I provided on September 30.
LuckyStudent02
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Latest update for #BTC 30/9/2024
After the short-term chart on 9/25, the price returned to the Entry zone of 626xx and then increased again. Currently at 65500, the Short team will mostly place STL at 65000, the price has pulled up to 66xxx so most of the Short team has already closed the order with STL, the wave runs like that, which means Confirm continues to increase to the Min mark of 68xxx and Altcoin also continues to increase.
For those of you who do not have Altcoin or have not bought enough Volume, you can wait for the price to return to the yellow zone of 60k5-62k5 to continue buying AltCoin. When #BTC drops below 60000, you will have to sit down and recalculate the increase wave. (That is, if you buy anything, STL will be at 60000).
After the short-term chart on 9/25, the price returned to the Entry zone of 626xx and then increased again. Currently at 65500, the Short team will mostly place STL at 65000, the price has pulled up to 66xxx so most of the Short team has already closed the order with STL, the wave runs like that, which means Confirm continues to increase to the Min mark of 68xxx and Altcoin also continues to increase.
For those of you who do not have Altcoin or have not bought enough Volume, you can wait for the price to return to the yellow zone of 60k5-62k5 to continue buying AltCoin. When #BTC drops below 60000, you will have to sit down and recalculate the increase wave. (That is, if you buy anything, STL will be at 60000).
LuckyStudent02
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#BTC Update 9/25/2024#BTChas stopped at the relatively close level of 65,000, of course this is the previous resistance level that the price reached on 8/25 and then fell nearly 20% to 53K.
The price zone around 62,500 that I provided before is still doing a good job of supporting#BTCto maintain the Sideway uptrend so that Altcoins can continue to increase to the x2-x3 levels compared to the lowest point in August.
Currently#BTC64,500.
Short Term H1-H4: In my opinion, the 64,700-66,000 zone is the resistance that#BTCcannot overcome immediately, there will be a correction wave to the area with good buying power 60,500-62,500 for a few more beats to consolidate buying power, pushing#BTCto reach higher resistance at 68,000-69,000.
In this round, if the price can push through 68-69K, it will match my long-term plan and the ratio is 70-80% that the August bottom is the bottom of a long and strong Bullrun wave. Following this short-term adjustment, most Altcoins will also decrease to the areas where it breaks out 2-3 bottoms, Breakout Trend Line. (Except for Alts that have broken too far, they may not be able to return to the Break point)
Long-term D1: 2 long-term#BTCbuying price zones 5xK-3xK that I have mentioned quite a lot. If the D1 candle does not close below 50K, my black line is still completely effective, then the black line will change to red.
Up to now, the green line about 3xK has a very small occurrence rate, exceeding 69K, as I said above, the black line is 80% - the green line is 20%. Just yesterday, a QUITE IMPORTANT news about the Chinese government deciding to pump money will add another signal to Confirm, the more Confirm signals there are, the more it will gradually confirm whether the bottom has been reached or not.
Also on this day at the end of last month, I was lucky to predict that Altcoin in August would rebound by an average of x2 from the bottom of August 5. #BTCrebounded to 65K and Altcoin averaged x2 from the bottom.
But at that time, considering the only condition of #DOM, it was not suitable, so I only had Action Long and Short#BTCdown.
In September, I saw the setup of an increasing wave after the interest rate news, in my opinion, this wave would increase in amplitude longer and more sustainably than the August wave.
So right from the days close to the interest rate news, when I caught good Long Entry orders, I always tried to encourage you to hold the orders as long as possible. At least until November this year. (Of course, there will inevitably be corrective waves to shake off and create opportunities for others to follow). Watch for corrective waves from now until the end of October to have a safe Entry.
LuckyStudent02
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#BTC Update 9/25/2024#BTChas stopped at the relatively close level of 65,000, of course this is the previous resistance level that the price reached on 8/25 and then fell nearly 20% to 53K.
The price zone around 62,500 that I provided before is still doing a good job of supporting#BTCto maintain the Sideway uptrend so that Altcoins can continue to increase to the x2-x3 levels compared to the lowest point in August.
Currently#BTC64,500.
Short Term H1-H4: In my opinion, the 64,700-66,000 zone is the resistance that#BTCcannot overcome immediately, there will be a correction wave to the area with good buying power 60,500-62,500 for a few more beats to consolidate buying power, pushing#BTCto reach higher resistance at 68,000-69,000.
In this round, if the price can push through 68-69K, it will match my long-term plan and the ratio is 70-80% that the August bottom is the bottom of a long and strong Bullrun wave. Following this short-term adjustment, most Altcoins will also decrease to the areas where it breaks out 2-3 bottoms, Breakout Trend Line. (Except for Alts that have broken too far, they may not be able to return to the Break point)
Long-term D1: 2 long-term#BTCbuying price zones 5xK-3xK that I have mentioned quite a lot. If the D1 candle does not close below 50K, my black line is still completely effective, then the black line will change to red.
Up to now, the green line about 3xK has a very small occurrence rate, exceeding 69K, as I said above, the black line is 80% - the green line is 20%. Just yesterday, a QUITE IMPORTANT news about the Chinese government deciding to pump money will add another signal to Confirm, the more Confirm signals there are, the more it will gradually confirm whether the bottom has been reached or not.
#BTC Update 9/25/2024#BTChas stopped at the relatively close level of 65,000, of course this is the previous resistance level that the price reached on 8/25 and then fell nearly 20% to 53K.
The price zone around 62,500 that I provided before is still doing a good job of supporting#BTCto maintain the Sideway uptrend so that Altcoins can continue to increase to the x2-x3 levels compared to the lowest point in August.
Currently#BTC64,500.
Short Term H1-H4: In my opinion, the 64,700-66,000 zone is the resistance that#BTCcannot overcome immediately, there will be a correction wave to the area with good buying power 60,500-62,500 for a few more beats to consolidate buying power, pushing#BTCto reach higher resistance at 68,000-69,000.
In this round, if the price can push through 68-69K, it will match my long-term plan and the ratio is 70-80% that the August bottom is the bottom of a long and strong Bullrun wave. Following this short-term adjustment, most Altcoins will also decrease to the areas where it breaks out 2-3 bottoms, Breakout Trend Line. (Except for Alts that have broken too far, they may not be able to return to the Break point)
Long-term D1: 2 long-term#BTCbuying price zones 5xK-3xK that I have mentioned quite a lot. If the D1 candle does not close below 50K, my black line is still completely effective, then the black line will change to red.
Up to now, the green line about 3xK has a very small occurrence rate, exceeding 69K, as I said above, the black line is 80% - the green line is 20%. Just yesterday, a QUITE IMPORTANT news about the Chinese government deciding to pump money will add another signal to Confirm, the more Confirm signals there are, the more it will gradually confirm whether the bottom has been reached or not.
I don't often use Binance Square, it's quite a pity because last September I had a view for a beautiful increase in September from the beginning of the month and posted it on the platforms but forgot to post it on Square.
Let's look back at the Plan I analyzed from the beginning of September until now:
- Short term is done#BTCreaches nearly 65K. Done✅
- Medium term is running, still maintaining the Sideway trend of the 62-65K uptrend to pump Altcoin. There have been many Altcoins x2-x3 compared to the lowest bottom of August as presented in the post. ✅
- Long term is the story of the next few months so take it slow.
In August, I also reminded you about the recovery wave with an average increase of x2 from the lowest bottom of August. But compared to the increase in August, I think this September wave is more sustainable, not pumping for about 2-3 days and then collapsing like in August.
For me, the August and September Plans just finished for the account are quite perfect and satisfactory, I can't control everything but it's about 80%. If you find this September analysis interesting and useful, I hope you will support 1 Like 👍 to get motivation to share more upcoming Views.
Among all Altcoins on @Binance, I see that#TAOhas all the criteria to enter a long-term uptrend in the next few months.
First, the price is Sideway in the consolidation zone for many months, then the beard is released through the consolidation zone to sweep like Wyckoff at the Spring point. After releasing the beard, it creates a bullish athlete model plus a bearish Breakout. #TAOneeds to surpass $350 in this wave to confirm the uptrend of this wave.
Anyone who follows the TA school and looks at this chart and says it's not beautiful?
Long surf Altcoin then close and return to Short#BTCat the top.
Just 2 orders a month is enough to live through the months of Altcoin Market torment.
Get into the habit of trading less and slowing down to catch longer waves instead of trading with a continuous frequency to catch small short-term waves.