Currently, Binance's trading scale is over 1 million USD with the highest Sharpe ratio. The ones with a higher Sharpe ratio than mine have a management scale that's less than a fraction of mine. Trading with a similar scale has a Sharpe ratio that's only half of mine.
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FOMC Eve Interpretation The recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has basically been priced in by the market. If the cut exceeds expectations, the market may see a significant increase, but this scenario is unlikely. If the cut is only 25 basis points, the market focus will shift to changes in the wording of the policy statement—any strong wording similar to the previous "employment prioritized over inflation" could trigger immediate volatility.
In addition, two aspects of information should be emphasized: first, the forecast of officials on the future interest rate cut path as shown in the dot plot; second, whether the statement mentions asset purchase plans such as increasing holdings of MBS or short-term government bonds (quasi-QE direction), as these liquidity signals will provide clear benefits to risk assets.
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In the past, the way of heaven flourished, and countless currencies converged, but now in the era of cryptocurrency's decline, the spiritual veins are exhausted, and retail investors are sinking into the sea of suffering, unable to see the other shore. Yet a young man emerges from the vast wilderness, starting with five hundred dollars, questioning the way of heaven, and embarking on a journey. Currently, it has been 5 days with a 10-fold increase.
After the previous feedback, last Wednesday's update resolved the issue with the abnormal yield calculation. However, after making another deposit and withdrawal today, I encountered the same problem again, which makes me suspect that there is a fundamental flaw in the current algorithm. Could it be that an intern wrote it?
Today's scenario:
1. I first withdrew $5000 in profit from my account. 2. Then I deposited $1000 back into the account. 3. As a result, the system treated the $1000 that was deposited back as new initial principal, causing my ROI to be significantly diluted and completely distorted.
The algorithm should intelligently distinguish between 'external new principal' and 'internal profit reinvestment', but it has clearly failed at this point.
I believe the key is to introduce the concept of an 'Withdrawn Profit Buffer Pool' to dynamically track the nature of funds.
· Purpose One: Eliminate cheating
Prevent users from fabricating high yield rates by 'depositing a large amount and immediately withdrawing'.
· Purpose Two: Accurate accounting (current pain point)
Correctly identify profit reinvestment behaviors like mine, where one withdraws first and then deposits back, to protect the real yield rate from being diluted. The logic is very simple:
1. Internal fund reinvestment (does not dilute ROI)
· Scenario: The user withdraws profits and then deposits some of the profits back. · Mechanism: The system creates a 'Withdrawn Profit Pool' to record the total profit that the user has historically withdrawn. When a deposit occurs, amounts are first offset from this pool. · Operation: As long as the deposit amount ≤ profit pool balance, this money is treated as profit reinvestment and does not count as initial principal, while the balance in the pool is reduced.
2. External new funds (dilute ROI)
· Scenario: The user introduces new funds that have never appeared in the account before. · Mechanism: When the deposit amount exceeds the 'profit pool' balance, it proves that the user has added new funds. · Operation: The excess amount counts as initial principal, spreading the yield rate.
The above logic is clear and straightforward, easy to implement. It can both plug loopholes and accurately reflect the performance of traders like me who withdraw profits first and then reinvest. (In fact, if I withdraw $4000, the ROI will not change, but if I withdraw $5000 and then reinvest $1000, the ROI will be diluted. The essence of the behavior is clearly the same, which is absurd.)
Binance has a top-tier technical team, and it's hard to believe this is the final solution. I hope the logic in this document will be reviewed quickly to fix this serious bug that affects user experience and the credibility of yield data. @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng
Morpheumina
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The profit rate calculation logic of Binance for copy trading indeed has significant flaws, especially reflected in the handling of the 'withdraw first, then deposit' scenario, which appears extremely unrigorous.
Core issue: Incorrectly identifying internal fund transfers as external fund changes.
Let me illustrate with my copy trading case:
· Initial capital: 1000 USDT · Final profit: 3000 USDT · Real ROI: (3000 / 1000) * 100% = 300%
However, when executing the operation of 'withdrawing profits of 2500 USDT first, then depositing an equivalent of 2500 USDT back', the system diluted my ROI significantly to below 100%. This completely contradicts financial common sense.
A reasonable calculation logic should distinguish between two scenarios:
✅ Scenario 1: Deposit first, then withdraw (current logic reasonable)
· Action: First deposit 10,000 USDT, after making a profit of 10,000 USDT, withdraw 10,000 USDT. · System logic: Total invested capital is considered as 20,000 USDT, ROI = (10,000 / 20,000) * 100% = 50%. · Evaluation: This logic is correct because it effectively prevents users from artificially inflating the yield by 'injecting external funds and then immediately withdrawing'.
❌ Scenario 2: Withdraw first, then deposit (current logic incorrect)
· Action: After using 10,000 USDT capital to make a profit of 10,000 USDT, first withdraw 10,000 USDT profit, then deposit back 10,000 USDT. · Binance logic: Incorrectly considers the deposited 10,000 USDT as new capital, leading to dilution of ROI. · Reasonable logic: Since the deposited 10,000 USDT ≤ the previously withdrawn 10,000 USDT, this is considered an internal fund transfer and does not introduce external funds. Therefore, the effective capital should still be the initial 10,000 USDT, and ROI should be (10,000 / 10,000) * 100% = 100%.
Conclusion and Recommendations The current Binance algorithm clearly fails to recognize the essential distinction between 'internal fund return' and 'external new funds'. Repeated deposit and withdrawal operations will lead to the yield being infinitely diluted, causing the data to become severely distorted and completely losing its reference value. It is recommended that Binance optimizes the algorithm as soon as possible: when the amount deposited by the user does not exceed the recently accumulated withdrawal amount, it should be regarded as an internal fund return, without resetting or diluting its original capital base. Only in this way can the yield data truly reflect the actual level of the trader, rather than being disturbed by irrelevant fund flow operations. @Yi He @Richard Teng @CZ
The profit rate calculation logic of Binance for copy trading indeed has significant flaws, especially reflected in the handling of the 'withdraw first, then deposit' scenario, which appears extremely unrigorous.
Core issue: Incorrectly identifying internal fund transfers as external fund changes.
Let me illustrate with my copy trading case:
· Initial capital: 1000 USDT · Final profit: 3000 USDT · Real ROI: (3000 / 1000) * 100% = 300%
However, when executing the operation of 'withdrawing profits of 2500 USDT first, then depositing an equivalent of 2500 USDT back', the system diluted my ROI significantly to below 100%. This completely contradicts financial common sense.
A reasonable calculation logic should distinguish between two scenarios:
✅ Scenario 1: Deposit first, then withdraw (current logic reasonable)
· Action: First deposit 10,000 USDT, after making a profit of 10,000 USDT, withdraw 10,000 USDT. · System logic: Total invested capital is considered as 20,000 USDT, ROI = (10,000 / 20,000) * 100% = 50%. · Evaluation: This logic is correct because it effectively prevents users from artificially inflating the yield by 'injecting external funds and then immediately withdrawing'.
❌ Scenario 2: Withdraw first, then deposit (current logic incorrect)
· Action: After using 10,000 USDT capital to make a profit of 10,000 USDT, first withdraw 10,000 USDT profit, then deposit back 10,000 USDT. · Binance logic: Incorrectly considers the deposited 10,000 USDT as new capital, leading to dilution of ROI. · Reasonable logic: Since the deposited 10,000 USDT ≤ the previously withdrawn 10,000 USDT, this is considered an internal fund transfer and does not introduce external funds. Therefore, the effective capital should still be the initial 10,000 USDT, and ROI should be (10,000 / 10,000) * 100% = 100%.
Conclusion and Recommendations The current Binance algorithm clearly fails to recognize the essential distinction between 'internal fund return' and 'external new funds'. Repeated deposit and withdrawal operations will lead to the yield being infinitely diluted, causing the data to become severely distorted and completely losing its reference value. It is recommended that Binance optimizes the algorithm as soon as possible: when the amount deposited by the user does not exceed the recently accumulated withdrawal amount, it should be regarded as an internal fund return, without resetting or diluting its original capital base. Only in this way can the yield data truly reflect the actual level of the trader, rather than being disturbed by irrelevant fund flow operations. @Yi He @Richard Teng @CZ
Do not ask how many autumns in Qiantang, the tide once wet the green shirt sleeves. Fifty thousand silver scales turn the snow waves, who would expect? A pole breaks the great river's flow. Twenty star barges pierce the miasma, just wait! Forty cloud sails tear the Wu hook. Sixty-six days of wind pass by, laughing and pointing: the straw raincoat is still on the fishing boat.
In the investment market, people are always chasing two illusions: a crystal ball that predicts the future and a spotlight that never goes out. When concepts like AI, Trump, and animal coins take turns to appear, each story is wrapped in the candy coating of getting rich quickly, and every believer is convinced they will be the chosen one.
But the laws of the market have never changed: when even street shoeshiners are talking about stocks, the bull market has come to an end. Those hotspots that are rendered as 'turning points of human civilization' are merely variations of a game of musical chairs. The sickle always reaps when the flowers are in full bloom, leaving 99% of participants to chew on bitterness.
Admit that you are not the superhero who can catch flying knives, and understand that 95% of the noise in the market has nothing to do with you. Among the weak waters of three thousand, only take the ladle that belongs to your cognitive boundary. Just like an old fisherman never chases after schools of fish but weaves a sturdy net at the passage of the tide—when the waves bring fish and shrimp, they will naturally fall into the net you have prepared for ten years.
The essence of wealth is the realization of cognition, and it is also a long-lasting battle against the weaknesses of human nature. The hustle and bustle belongs to them, while you have your own mountains and seas.