小情绪_bnb

Flash crash, sharp decline, what exactly happened in the crypto market?

Detailed reason analysis

1. Federal Reserve monetary policy shift: Pause in interest rate cuts leads to macro disappointment
Core event: The Federal Reserve announced a pause in interest rate cuts during the first FOMC meeting of 2026, maintaining rates unchanged, breaking market expectations for easing policies.

2. Geopolitical risk escalation: Safe-haven demand drives up oil and gold, crypto assets are sold off

Key geopolitical events:
Trump's tariff threats: New tariff threats against EU countries triggered global trade concerns (initial drop triggered on January 26).

Increased probability of conflict with Iran: Polymarket data shows a greater than 70% probability of Trump attacking Iran before the end of 2026, with Iran vowing retaliation, pushing up crude oil and gold prices.

Crypto market reaction: Cryptocurrencies are not seen as safe-haven assets and are instead sold off due to a decline in risk appetite.

3. Internal market leverage liquidation and market maker sell-off
Large-scale liquidation event:
In the past 60 minutes: $256 million long positions were liquidated, mainly concentrated in BTC and ETH perpetual contracts.

Market maker sell-off: Wintermute sold over $250 million in cryptocurrencies on Binance, triggering a chain liquidation.

Derivatives data: BTC open interest reached $59.6 billion, funding rate -0.023% (neutral to bearish), indicating forced liquidation after excessive leverage accumulation.

4. Market sentiment worsens: Fear and greed index hits bottom

5. Altcoins follow with a sharp decline, individual projects hit historical lows
Main altcoin performance:

Ethereum (ETH): Lost support at $3,000

Other major altcoins: BNB (fell below $900), SOL, DOGE, ADA all dropped over 5%.

In the last month before the new year, pay attention to safety.

RWA was still a vague concept last year, but this year it has been thoroughly implemented, and in reality, it's not that grand.

Gold and silver have surged, and in the crypto world, funds can be traded directly without the need for back-and-forth transfers.
$XAG is silver
$PAXG is gold

The US stock market is the same; it's not just Binance wallets that have crypto stocks, even Tesla $TSLA has launched contracts.

Only users who have traded stocks may understand the significance of RWA.

Calm and composed, I suddenly realize that the cryptocurrency market will never have a bull market again.

The assets in the cryptocurrency market are too scattered, and everywhere I look, there are trapped positions.

In the last bull market, cryptocurrency assets were still limited to the currencies within exchanges, and the variety of assets was single. No matter what you bought, there were only a few hundred, and funds rushed in, naturally driving prices up.

Later, the bull market ended, and funds had nowhere to go.

At the same time, meme and NFT emerged, and these two asset issuance methods also accompanied a massive transfer of assets.

Afterwards, inscriptions combined the two.

The new asset issuance method attracted countless funds to pour in, and unsurprisingly, now there are trapped positions everywhere, and there's no turning back.

^
Now, Binance has completely demystified memes, while strongly supporting RWA, which can be seen as a return to the essence of "blockchain."

Play new, not old.
Eat hot, not cold.

After careful examination of $RIVER 's 4-hour K

This is a K that is training for the next buyer, perfectly reenacting the story of 'The Wolf is Coming' three times

First time: 23.8 dropped to 11.8
Second time: 34.8 dropped to 16.1
Third time: 66.1 dropped to 30.8

Each time, it was a halving, then a rebound
It has perfectly reenacted this three times already

Is this the final chapter? Or a sequel?

86~42?
Or 86～4.2

No coin will keep rising; even the mighty dragon has regrets, and there will always be a time for pullbacks.

However, this $RIVER is really ruthless.

Last time, I shorted at 48.48 and closed at 31.31, and surprisingly made a small profit.
This time, I shorted at 77.77, and now it’s at 65, just barely breaking even!

Jing Ye Jingpai Certification:

The Zama auction has ended, and now we just wait for it to go public.

Send out a wave of red envelopes

$ZAMA

A new day, a new promotion match

Currently, the leading coins in the price increase list:

$ERA
$ARKM
$SHELL

Let's take a look at the price increase list during the day!

Regarding the value of "KOL", the viewpoint I agree with the most is that KOL itself does not create value; the greatest value of this group is the "destruction" of value.

A broad article, whether for popular science or marketing, can only bring a limited "buying power", especially now that Web3 players have crawled out from piles of dead bodies, having seen all kinds of scenes.
However, the blackening and FUD of "KOL" can generate enormous destructive power; no matter who the victim is, they will be subtly rejected by a sense of "distrust".

Binance Square was born in 2022 and has been operating "very low-key". The turning point was in 2025, where it became obvious that Binance had tilted manpower and resources towards the square. Especially after the end of Kaito's mouthful, the square directly upgraded and increased the mouthful rewards.

In 2025, the most "absurd" thing is that KOLs suffered investment losses, with crazy FUD against Binance. Once, it was the decoupling of FDUSD; they cut at a low point, and then it quickly re-pegged.

There was also the 1011 incident, where countless FUD formed a trend: the crash was caused by Binance.

Moreover, with all the previous FUD, Binance clearly realized: the destructive power of KOL is vast, and the various losses caused are hard to estimate.

>

Looking at the recent official live events from Binance, in the past, we could still see some "eyeball-catching" cryptocurrency KOLs.

But in the past month, they have all disappeared, replaced entirely by bloggers from Binance Square!

This is a wind, the wind has risen, and I hope everyone can ride this wave.

>
Recently, there have also been many projects that do not favor the KOL matrix on X; they have placed their PR on the square, and in the cryptocurrency world, the square has gradually grown from obscurity to the main character!

Players who engage in secondary trading are like tidal fishermen. And when it comes to tidal fishing, the most critical aspect is mastering the tides.

In the cryptocurrency world, although it is a global market, a fascinating point is that a new day is defined by UTC+8.

If you set the price increase and candlestick charts to the UTC+8 time zone, you will find that every night after 12 o'clock, it is the time for major coins to seize the price increase rankings.

The default price increase set by the system is defined over the past 24 hours. At this moment, the starting point for the price increase is the same time as yesterday.

Every night at 12 o'clock, observing the price increase rankings basically determines the direction of speculation for the next day.

Can't help but ponder whether a bull market for VC old coins is on the way. — Reflection from $DUSK $ENSO and other pumpers

In terms of decline, almost all old projects have seen a drop of at least 10 times, even for platform coins like $JUP , which became popular due to the meme frenzy over 25 years, the drop is also 10 times, not to mention many others, especially projects from 25 years, which opened with a phrase 'southbound', and upon closer inspection, they also started with a 10 times drop.

In terms of space, the decline is deep enough.

In terms of time, many VC coins still have some bottom lines, with token unlocks approaching, and they haven't ignored the unlock and opened up for a dump. Correspondingly, project parties or market manipulators have quite a few chips in their hands.

Finally, from a driving perspective: Gold repeatedly breaks records, leading the entire metals circle, and the stock market is also very crazy; the market manipulators holding large amounts of virtual coins must be very anxious.

Recently, special attention should be paid to projects that suddenly show unusual bottom-pumping activity. These projects, once officially launched, at least start with three times, and from the bottom, they all show a 10 times increase.

Is it chaotic?
The stitched entertainment mode has dragged all the old players back to the server!
League of Legends, as a game that has accompanied countless 80s, 90s, and even 00s, has gradually been uninstalled by players for various reasons!

However, relying on the Hextech Mayhem mode, it has exploded on short video platforms in just one month!

Middle-aged players who haven't logged in for 800 years began to issue the most urgent invitation: Is it chaotic?

A brainless combat mode, win or lose? Actually, it doesn’t matter, the thrill is the goal all players pursue.

Even if on short videos, seeing others achieving great luck in Hextech, that kind of alternative thrill will attract endless players to keep trying!

An outdated game can regain its glory.
It is also understandable that the young players who have repeatedly lost in contracts and memes are pursuing the word "thrill."

Finally collapsed

It seems that AI big data analysis is quite valuable as a reference.

$RIVER

However, with my 48.48 opening and 31.31 flat, I surprisingly only made a 20%

The funding rate is too outrageous.

Three months later, Alpha is back with a $200 airdrop!

Is it still possible to rejoin now?
$SPACE

$RIVER In the next 72 hours, the probability of a collapse exceeds 70%

Watch and see

River All data analysis, as this year's meme coin, whether you are preparing to go long or short, consider the following:

$RIVER is currently in a state of extreme danger with "low circulation, high control, and ultra-high leverage" combined risks. The current strong price near 50 is completely maintained by short squeeze and extreme negative funding rates.

However, today's (2026-01-22) value of $66 million in token unlocking and the exchange's buy depth of only $40,000 creates a fatal contradiction. Once the unlocked chips start flowing into the market, a 66% crash is expected, with target price range $15-20.

Chip concentration: Top 5 addresses control 96% of the supply 🔴 Extremely high
Circulation rate: 19.6% (FDV $2.6 billion vs circulating market value $0.51 million) 🔴 Extremely high
Leverage intensity: OI $448 million / circulating market value $0.51 million = 88% 🔴 Extreme
Funding rate: -109.27% annualized (every 8 hours -1.09%) 🔴 Extreme
Unlock impact ratio: $66M unlock / $40,000 depth = 1650 times 🔴 Fatal

--
Key warning signals:

Large inflows to exchanges: Monitor Binance, OKX, Coinone hot wallets.
Narrowing funding rates: Returning from -1%+ to below -0.1%.
Abrupt decrease in positions: OI reduced by over 30% indicates speculative capital withdrawal.
Social media shift: KOLs start to signal risks instead of promoting price increases.

Harvesting logic behind the narrative:

Arthur Hayes's Maelstrom Fund investment and the "$100 price target" narrative need to be viewed rationally:
Early investors' stance: Maelstrom, as a strategic investor, may have a cost price below $5; exit timing choice: exiting when liquidity is best is a rational choice; community transfer risk: retail investors taking over at $40+ is extremely high risk.
Important reminder: All "chain abstract stablecoins" and "multi-chain infrastructure" technical narratives appear pale in the face of extreme chip structures and derivatives games. This is a typical case of financial market games overwhelming technical fundamentals.

Conclusion and recommendations
$RIVER is in an extremely dangerous bubble state, with triple risks (low circulation, high control, ultra-high leverage) making it a potential "preferred target for a crash".

Crash time prediction: Based on data models and similar historical cases, the probability of a significant adjustment occurring within the next 72 hours exceeds 70%, with the most likely trigger point being the moment unlocked tokens start flowing into exchanges.

A SOL meme believer has launched a 'challenge' against BSC

He chose to hack four.meme

Today's airdrop is Sent
I haven't participated much in this project because there are too many personal connections involved.

But I did get a little bit.
The airdrop was distributed to fans.

SPACE just finished a new project and ran away! Raised 13 million USD!

Coincidentally, the new coin launching tomorrow on Binance Alpha is also called space.

But fortunately, I took a closer look, the one that ran away is intodotspace, and the Alpha launching tomorrow is spacecoin, not the same one!

Counting the cryptocurrency security ecosystem, apart from Alpha, every option is a user benefit, there’s always one that suits you!

In the entire cryptocurrency circle, Binance's ecosystem is becoming more comprehensive, from trading to marketing to innovation, in every corner, there are Binance's money-spraying benefits:

1、$BNB this is the dream of countless Web3 newcomers
Ten years ago, many people regretted not buying in when it was $BTC a few cents or a few dimes, at that time cryptocurrency newcomers were like today's cryptocurrency newcomers, not buying in when BNB was a few dimes or a few dollars!
Long-term Holder Financial Bureau, the red envelopes keep coming!

2、Promotion commissions
Many people including myself have always believed that the cryptocurrency circle is relatively saturated, and promotion is extremely difficult! However, there have always been new entrants in the cryptocurrency circle!

If you are a college student, if you are a top person in your company, if you have some influence in your family, then even if they are not currently trading cryptocurrencies, recommending them to register first is also a way to seize the opportunity!
During its peak, Xiaoxia earned tens of millions a year just from commissions!

3、Marketing task system

Now almost all cryptocurrencies, as long as they are listed on Binance, will have a certain share allocated to Binance for marketing activities.
Many check-in activities, trading competitions, and task systems have ample shares available for participating users.
Doing the math, you find that you can only divide a few slices of a few dozen slices, don’t think much of it? That’s because you didn’t look closely, let alone calculate carefully.

4、Alpha
Alpha is Binance's greatest innovation in the past four years! Although this is a well-worn topic.

Many Alpha users simply interact to earn points and exchange for airdrops. But from Binance Wallet to Wallet Coin Stocks, and even the Financial Bureau, it’s not hard to see that Alpha has become the key to “breaking out of the circle.” Regardless of where the direction of the cryptocurrency circle is in the future, Alpha must have its irreplaceable positioning and value!

5、Binance Square

On X, there is no shortage of KOLs, and even less shortage of cooperative KOLs.
However, by observing the live streaming KOLs from Binance's official announcements on X, one can clearly see a signal: Binance needs KOLs who grow in Binance Square, KOLs that are closer to users!