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须知少日拏云志

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Core Market Dynamics: The crypto market shows early signs of the 2022 bear market, with multiple signals indicating a cooling risk appetite • Weak ETF demand becomes a key drag: BlackRock's IBIT has seen outflows for six consecutive weeks, setting a record for the longest negative flow since its launch in January 2024, with over $2.7 billion redeemed in the past five weeks, significantly indicating institutional capital flight. • Derivatives market highlights risk-averse sentiment: Open interest in futures for November-December continues to decline, with investors' risk tolerance decreasing after the clearing flash crash on October 10; perpetual contract financing rates are neutral, and financing premiums have fallen, significantly reducing speculation. • Options market sentiment initially suppressed then stabilized: Put options dominated as Bitcoin approached $80,000, and after prices stabilized, funding shifted towards call options, with implied volatility declining and skew easing, leading to a waning of panic sentiment. • Market structure similar to early 2022 bear market: Over 25% of Bitcoin supply is in a state of loss, with on-chain weakness intertwining with shrinking demand, yet capital momentum remains positive, with the real market average serving as a key support level. Brothers, are we bullish or bearish now? Feel free to leave a message #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC $ETH $BNB
Core Market Dynamics: The crypto market shows early signs of the 2022 bear market, with multiple signals indicating a cooling risk appetite

• Weak ETF demand becomes a key drag: BlackRock's IBIT has seen outflows for six consecutive weeks, setting a record for the longest negative flow since its launch in January 2024, with over $2.7 billion redeemed in the past five weeks, significantly indicating institutional capital flight.

• Derivatives market highlights risk-averse sentiment: Open interest in futures for November-December continues to decline, with investors' risk tolerance decreasing after the clearing flash crash on October 10; perpetual contract financing rates are neutral, and financing premiums have fallen, significantly reducing speculation.

• Options market sentiment initially suppressed then stabilized: Put options dominated as Bitcoin approached $80,000, and after prices stabilized, funding shifted towards call options, with implied volatility declining and skew easing, leading to a waning of panic sentiment.

• Market structure similar to early 2022 bear market: Over 25% of Bitcoin supply is in a state of loss, with on-chain weakness intertwining with shrinking demand, yet capital momentum remains positive, with the real market average serving as a key support level.

Brothers, are we bullish or bearish now? Feel free to leave a message
#美联储重启降息步伐
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SOLUSDT
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Ethereum Fusaka upgrade officially launched: a comprehensive analysis of core breakthroughs and ecological impacts • Core upgrade positioning: On December 3, 2025, Ethereum will officially activate the Fusaka upgrade at block height 13,164,544 (formed by merging the execution layer Osaka and the consensus layer Fulu), which includes 12 EIP proposals. It is a systemic upgrade that balances "scalability, security, and decentralization," with Vitalik Buterin personally congratulating the developer team. • Key technological breakthroughs: 1. PeerDAS (EIP-7594): Core upgrade plan, through data availability sampling + erasure code technology, nodes do not need to download the complete Blob data, only verifying 1/8 random fragments can ensure data integrity, theoretically increasing Layer-2 (L2) data capacity by 8 times and reducing the validator threshold by 85%. 2. BPO fork mechanism (EIP-7892): Lightweight dedicated fork, can flexibly adjust the number of Blobs per block, accommodating the growth of L2 data demand without major hard forks, with plans to double the number of Blobs in phases. 3. User experience innovation: Supports P-256 native signature (EIP-7951), compatible with Apple/Android device security modules, unlocking non-seed phrase wallets; speeds up transaction confirmations through block pre-confirmation (EIP-7917). 4. Security and efficiency optimization: Sets a single transaction gas limit of 167 million (EIP-7825), introduces a Blob floor price mechanism (EIP-7918) to stabilize the fee market, supports expiration of historical records (EIP-7642) to save 530GB of node storage. • Core ecological impact: L2 operational costs are expected to decrease by 40%-60%, high throughput applications (DeFi, blockchain games) are ushering in development opportunities; Ethereum mainnet gas limit increased to 60M, moving towards a dual-track architecture of "L1 settlement + L2 execution," aiming to support 100,000 transactions per second. Will ETH start a bull market now? #ETH走势分析 $BTC $ETH $BNB
Ethereum Fusaka upgrade officially launched: a comprehensive analysis of core breakthroughs and ecological impacts

• Core upgrade positioning: On December 3, 2025, Ethereum will officially activate the Fusaka upgrade at block height 13,164,544 (formed by merging the execution layer Osaka and the consensus layer Fulu), which includes 12 EIP proposals. It is a systemic upgrade that balances "scalability, security, and decentralization," with Vitalik Buterin personally congratulating the developer team.

• Key technological breakthroughs:

1. PeerDAS (EIP-7594): Core upgrade plan, through data availability sampling + erasure code technology, nodes do not need to download the complete Blob data, only verifying 1/8 random fragments can ensure data integrity, theoretically increasing Layer-2 (L2) data capacity by 8 times and reducing the validator threshold by 85%.

2. BPO fork mechanism (EIP-7892): Lightweight dedicated fork, can flexibly adjust the number of Blobs per block, accommodating the growth of L2 data demand without major hard forks, with plans to double the number of Blobs in phases.

3. User experience innovation: Supports P-256 native signature (EIP-7951), compatible with Apple/Android device security modules, unlocking non-seed phrase wallets; speeds up transaction confirmations through block pre-confirmation (EIP-7917).

4. Security and efficiency optimization: Sets a single transaction gas limit of 167 million (EIP-7825), introduces a Blob floor price mechanism (EIP-7918) to stabilize the fee market, supports expiration of historical records (EIP-7642) to save 530GB of node storage.

• Core ecological impact: L2 operational costs are expected to decrease by 40%-60%, high throughput applications (DeFi, blockchain games) are ushering in development opportunities; Ethereum mainnet gas limit increased to 60M, moving towards a dual-track architecture of "L1 settlement + L2 execution," aiming to support 100,000 transactions per second.

Will ETH start a bull market now? #ETH走势分析
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ETHUSDT
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Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the largest player? With such a large volume, why engage in such small currencies, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, only to be wrecked in the end? With such extreme funding rates, would someone so wealthy short?
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the largest player? With such a large volume, why engage in such small currencies, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, only to be wrecked in the end? With such extreme funding rates, would someone so wealthy short?
盘口观察者
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Bearish
$PIPPIN Currently, there is huge selling pressure at 0.45! Looking at the liquidation information, this wave has exploded with 500,000 USD, did you contribute to this? Current operation suggestion: Do not add to heavy short positions. The liquidation price must be above 0.6 to be safe. My position is light, so I have already added some positions at 0.45. Time will amplify profits. Follow me, and I will keep reminding you!
See original
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the largest player? With such a large volume, why engage in such small currencies, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, only to be wrecked in the end? With such extreme funding rates, would someone so wealthy short?
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the largest player? With such a large volume, why engage in such small currencies, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, only to be wrecked in the end? With such extreme funding rates, would someone so wealthy short?
加密北哥
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Bearish
$PIPPIN Big K has not retreated yet. In the past few days, the dog stock has been fluctuating. Are they trying to blow up the big players, or are they just annoying the retail investors, or do they not have money to borrow? Brothers, which side are you on this time? I support Big K.
See original
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the largest player? With such a large volume, why engage in such small currencies, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, only to be wrecked in the end? With such extreme funding rates, would someone so wealthy short?
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the largest player? With such a large volume, why engage in such small currencies, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, only to be wrecked in the end? With such extreme funding rates, would someone so wealthy short?
MXLY Dreamland
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$PIPPIN Please let the Air Force evacuate as soon as possible. My personal prediction is that it will break the price of 40 US dollars before Christmas. The reason is very simple; you can draw the conclusion using the most basic mathematical principles. Currently, just the liquidation amount of Mr. K alone is enough to push the price to this level, not to mention the scale of other short positions. The total liquidation amount will reach at least 100 million US dollars 💸
See original
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the largest player? With such a large volume, why engage in such small currencies, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, only to be wrecked in the end? With such extreme funding rates, would someone so wealthy short?
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the largest player? With such a large volume, why engage in such small currencies, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, only to be wrecked in the end? With such extreme funding rates, would someone so wealthy short?
特大发
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$PIPPIN This clearly wants to blow up, Mr. K. I have a bit of strength in this stock. Now I will start using funding fees. I wonder if Mr. K can handle it?
See original
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the biggest player, with such a huge volume still engaging in small coins, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, ultimately getting squeezed out, like this kind of abnormal funding rate, would such wealthy people really short?
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the biggest player, with such a huge volume still engaging in small coins, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, ultimately getting squeezed out, like this kind of abnormal funding rate, would such wealthy people really short?
Paulina Arkell E3n
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$PIPPIN The mysterious small K-line has ended, and it is clear that the old stock is aiming to explode K totals tonight.
It is highly likely to be raised to 20 yuan, let's see $COAI has been raised from 0.1 to 20
See original
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the biggest player, with such a huge volume still engaging in small coins, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, ultimately getting squeezed out, like this kind of abnormal funding rate, would such wealthy people really short?
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the biggest player, with such a huge volume still engaging in small coins, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, ultimately getting squeezed out, like this kind of abnormal funding rate, would such wealthy people really short?
Paulina Arkell E3n
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Bullish
$PIPPIN Mysterious Little K likes to short the rising list, having escaped death many times, but this time it seems there is no escape. One who often walks by the river will inevitably get their shoes wet; can K really escape death 100 times? But this time, if Old Zhuang has set his sights on him, he will lose everything.
Old Zhuang has already controlled the spot market; with just 10 million, he can blow up the liquidity pool and raise it to 20 yuan. Unfortunately, it seems we are about to see K disappear from the crypto world.
{future}(PIPPINUSDT)
See original
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the biggest player, with such a huge volume still engaging in small coins, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, ultimately getting squeezed out, like this kind of abnormal funding rate, would such wealthy people really short?
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the biggest player, with such a huge volume still engaging in small coins, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, ultimately getting squeezed out, like this kind of abnormal funding rate, would such wealthy people really short?
进击选手
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Mysterious Little K-Line I think he is a bit flustered since he shorted the PIPPIN shanzhai, he hasn't shorted any big positions on the rise of shanzhai like FOLKS and BEAT, just a small position to short
As it stands, PIPPIN has shown no signs of selling so far, and is even brewing a new surge today, breaking a new high of 0.4u
This trend is completely different from the previous violent rises and crashes of myx and coai, following a trend of rapid rises and slow declines
This kind of movement is quite torturous for short sellers because they can't sleep at night, worried about being liquidated
For short sellers, both physically and mentally, it is a huge torment
The PIPPIN coin is only suitable for going long.
See original
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the biggest player, with such a huge volume still engaging in small coins, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, ultimately getting squeezed out, like this kind of abnormal funding rate, would such wealthy people really short?
Is it possible that the mysterious small K-line is the biggest player, with such a huge volume still engaging in small coins, and then many retail investors follow suit to short, ultimately getting squeezed out, like this kind of abnormal funding rate, would such wealthy people really short?
退后-
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Bearish
Let's calculate how much real money the dog owner can use to push the mysterious small K-line to explode? $pippin (approximately over 20 million USD hard pull required)

First, let's popularize a concept: Index Price: The exchanges look at the index price for liquidation, which is a synthesized price. Even if the spot price is 0.1, if the index price is 1.1, when you open a short position, you will be liquidated directly at 1.1.

Binance's pippin index price has a total of three price sources, with gate and matcha each accounting for 11%.

The main part is Binance alpha. What is alpha? Alpha is on-chain.
The pool that determines the alpha price consists of 17 million pippin and 47,500 sol in LP pairs.

This is already the place with the best liquidity. Some say the mysterious small K-line can accumulate enough chips in the spot market. I tell you, it's impossible. He has a position of 8 million tokens. Does he want to accumulate enough?

In this pool, there are a total of 17 million tokens. If he takes away 8 million, he needs to pay a cost of 6.3 million USD.
Moreover, at the same time, the token price will be pushed up four times to 1.4 USD. By then, his original position will suffer a loss of nearly 900,000 USD, and he still holds 8 million tokens at an average price of 0.87, which means he is locked into a long-short position.

Knowing the capital exposed by K, okay, then for the 1.5 million USD investment, I assume he has 3 million USD in margin to supplement. Holding 8 million tokens, what does that mean? If the dog owner pulls it to 4 USD, he will be liquidated.

So how much does the dog owner need to pay? It is known that the price calculation of the on-chain LP is based on the square algorithm where sol doubles and the token price quadruples. Pulling 10 times means 6.3 million * square root of 10, which requires about 2 million USD in capital to push it up and liquidate K.

I think, in the current environment, it's impossible to hard pull it up. I'm just afraid the dog owner will slowly wear K down through funding rates.
{future}(PIPPINUSDT)
🎙️ 价值共识,聪聪聪!
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$ETH Brothers, did you go long today? I mentioned to the brothers yesterday that there would be a rebound.
$ETH Brothers, did you go long today? I mentioned to the brothers yesterday that there would be a rebound.
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ZECUSDT
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$ZEC If you borrow 100U from me to complete the last dance, I will lend it to you without hesitation, but if you say you need it for living, eating, or accommodation, sorry, my money will not be lent to cowards! I have always shot others, how could anyone shoot me? Follow me on horseback, let's charge forward!
$ZEC If you borrow 100U from me to complete the last dance, I will lend it to you without hesitation, but if you say you need it for living, eating, or accommodation, sorry, my money will not be lent to cowards! I have always shot others, how could anyone shoot me? Follow me on horseback, let's charge forward!
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ZECUSDT
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$ZEC Brothers, this morning I mentioned 675, how many people followed up at that time, got the money, got the money, regardless of this and that, just do it, finally got the second piece of meat from this dealer!!!
$ZEC Brothers, this morning I mentioned 675, how many people followed up at that time, got the money, got the money, regardless of this and that, just do it, finally got the second piece of meat from this dealer!!!
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ZECUSDT
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Brothers, have you all gotten on the bus? Let's start collecting the miller, collecting the miller.
Brothers, have you all gotten on the bus? Let's start collecting the miller, collecting the miller.
须知少日拏云志
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$ZEC The obvious upward channel has ended, brothers. The current price is the peak of ZEC. If we don't short now, we will never return to this price. Let's wait and see.
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I believe my brothers have started reaping the rewards,
I believe my brothers have started reaping the rewards,
须知少日拏云志
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$ZEC The obvious upward channel has ended, brothers. The current price is the peak of ZEC. If we don't short now, we will never return to this price. Let's wait and see.
See original
$ZEC The obvious upward channel has ended, brothers. The current price is the peak of ZEC. If we don't short now, we will never return to this price. Let's wait and see.
$ZEC The obvious upward channel has ended, brothers. The current price is the peak of ZEC. If we don't short now, we will never return to this price. Let's wait and see.
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$ZEC The Earth does not explode, ZEC must not fall
$ZEC The Earth does not explode, ZEC must not fall
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$ZEC It's not easy to rip a piece of meat from the dealer's mouth, this dealer is too ruthless, sleeping 💤
$ZEC It's not easy to rip a piece of meat from the dealer's mouth, this dealer is too ruthless, sleeping 💤
S
ZECUSDT
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+7,371.88USDT
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Don't leave it empty today, start to empty it gradually from tomorrow.
Don't leave it empty today, start to empty it gradually from tomorrow.
在我这里一切皆有可能
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How is the bearish outlook for Lao Tie 711?
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