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$BTC If you're still glued to the charts deep into the night, pondering market movements, take a moment to really digest this content.
Your willingness to sacrifice rest and leisure to study candlesticks and analyze market trends shows that you genuinely want to excel in trading. You're committed to digging deep into the market, and this level of discipline and focus already surpasses most casual traders who operate on gut feelings.

Currently, the market is in a range-bound phase without a clear directional trend. Many traders burning the midnight oil can easily become anxious and start opening and closing positions frequently, chasing trends and making impulsive trades, which leads to repeated stop-losses and draining their capital. In a choppy market, the worst thing you can do is rush in. When the trend direction is unclear, blindly entering trades can easily result in losses on both sides amidst the back-and-forth price action. The essence of trading is waiting for high-probability opportunities; without clear signals, it's best to stay on the sidelines. Only when the price reaches key resistance or support levels, aligned with the broader trend logic, should you consider making a move, all while maintaining solid risk management and avoiding subjective trades.

When you're navigating trading on your own, it's easy to fall into a limited mindset, struggling to understand multi-timeframe correlations and pinpoint precise entry and exit points. Even when opportunities arise, it can be tough to seize them. If you find yourself consistently in the red and unable to grasp the main narrative of the market, you don’t have to suffer alone. Follow my daily updates for a complete breakdown of the market, and prepare a comprehensive trading plan in advance. During the range-bound phase, we’ll avoid being caught in shakeout traps and capture the rhythm of trending markets with confidence.

6.19 Evening Market Analysis

The market is currently weak and consolidating, with a slight dip to 62300 and a small bounce back. Over the past 24 hours, we’ve seen a drop, and bulls are under pressure this week, leaning towards a bearish outlook.

Bearish Logic: Rising inflation in the U.S. is cooling down rate cut expectations, with the Fed adopting a hawkish stance, leading to funds flowing out of the crypto space into U.S. bonds and dollars. BTC spot ETFs are seeing significant outflows, diminishing its safe-haven appeal.

From a technical standpoint, the market is fully bearish, with weak bounce-back potential. Short-term support is at 62000, with strong support at 60700; resistance levels are between 64000 and 65200. What we’re seeing now is just a minor correction in the downtrend, with no reversal signals in sight. Bottom fishing carries high risks—keep an eye on the 60800 support and 64800 resistance levels.

Trading Strategy:
Short at 63500-63800, targeting 61000; light long positions between 60800-61000 for $BTC.

1. Current Market Conditions

ETH is currently priced around $1,729, down 3.65% in the last 24 hours. It is trailing BTC, which has dipped below $64,000, and ETH's rebound is noticeably weaker than BTC's.

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2. Key Levels

Direction Price Significance
Resistance Above $1,760-1,765 Middle Bollinger Band, short-term pressure
Strong Resistance Above $1,850 Breakout confirms bullish continuation
Support Below $1,730-1,750 Pullback entry zone
Strong Support Below $1,620-1,670 Bullish lifeline; a break below looks for lower levels

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3. Short-term Trading Logic

Long Logic: Stabilizing on a pullback **$1,730-1,750** → Light position to go long, target $1,780-1,850, stop-loss below $1,700

Short Logic: Resistance on a bounce **$1,870-1,920** → Light position to short, target $1,820-1,780, stop-loss at $1,950

Breakout Logic: A volume-driven drop below $1,700 **could be a signal to short; if it stabilizes with volume above $1,850, light position to chase long**

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4. ⚠️ Risk Warning

1. ETH's rebound is weak, it moves with BTC but has lower elasticity, focus on quick in-and-out for short-term trades
2. Open contracts dipping below the monthly average, reduced leverage demand, liquidity is thin
3. If ETH falls below $1,679, mainstream CEXs could see cumulative long liquidations reach $544 million

The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own decisions and bear the risks.

Thursday Morning BTC/ETH Strategy
The Fed's first performance, Kashkari's overall comments lean hawkish, following a deep drop, we see a slight rebound at lower levels, with ETH showing stronger volatility. In the short term, after an oversold condition, we are witnessing a corrective rebound, but overall, we're still in a bearish trend. The MACD green bars are shortening, indicating a short-term repair signal after the oversell; this rebound is merely a technical bounce after a decline, not a reversal into a bull market.

First Support: 64380, the central point of the day's low rebound; if it breaks, the rebound fails.
Strong Support: 638, the key bottom in this round of decline; a valid breakdown will open up a new downward space.

First Resistance: 651
Second Resistance: 659
Intraday Strong Resistance: 663

Trading Advice
If BTC rebounds to 648-655 and doesn't break through, go short directly, targeting first at 643; if that breaks, look for 638-615. The daily timeframe remains bearish, and the risk-to-reward ratio for shorting on rebounds is much more favorable.

ETH Short-term Support: 1741
Strong Support: 1724; once broken, the rebound ends, and we see further weakness.

First Resistance: 1767
Second Resistance: 1792
Intraday Strong Resistance: 1809

Trading Advice
If ETH rebounds to 1765-1790 and faces resistance with stagnation, go short; first target is 1742, and if that breaks, look for 1724-1650.

Tonight is the most crucial night for the crypto market in 2026.
Not because interest rates are going to change—they won't—but because Wosh is going to speak.
The first-ever Fed chair holding over $100 million in crypto assets will tonight reveal where he plans to steer this ship.
Many are worried about Wosh's hawkish stance.
But I want to remind everyone of one thing: someone with real skin in the game in crypto, versus someone who’s only criticized Bitcoin in hearings, can’t have the same long-term impact on the industry, right?
Short-term volatility is inevitable.
If tonight’s outcome is "hawkish statement + dot plot keeps rates steady", Bitcoin might retrace to 63,000, which could be the last chance to buy Bitcoin above $60k in this cycle.
The US-Iran deal is signed, oil prices are falling, inflation expectations are easing, and the CLARITY Act is moving forward.
The macro landscape's darkest moment might truly be behind us.
Hold tight, and wait for the lights to come on at 2:00 AM.

June 17th Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis

On the morning of June 17th, the overall bearish trend for BTC and ETH is clear. Prices are under pressure below the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages, which are all lined up bearishly. The 66800-67000 range is a strong resistance zone, and any bounce is met with significant selling pressure, merely constituting a continuation of the downtrend. The MACD is in the bearish zone below the zero line, with the green bars slightly narrowing and no bullish crossover in sight, indicating that bulls lack reversal momentum. The current rebound is on dwindling volume, forming a bearish flag, and the likelihood of a drop after consolidation is high; RSI remains in the weak range of 33-38, leaving little room for a rebound.

Short Bitcoin at 66000-66500, targeting 64000 and 63000;
Short Ethereum at 1800-1830, targeting 1750 and 1700.

ETH is showing strong intraday momentum, with bulls continuously pumping in capital. It's not advisable to FOMO in at the current price; instead, wait for a dip to the 1750-1770 support zone to scale into long positions. For the upside, take profits at 1830 with half your position, and once it hits the strong resistance zone at 1840-1890, exit completely to secure your gains. The ETH market is more elastic, and high levels face sharper pullbacks, so make sure to cash out timely to avoid profit retracement. $BTC $ETH

Bitcoin spiked to 67,300 yesterday but faced resistance and pulled back as expected, with a phase of correction overnight, hitting a low around 66,100 this morning before bouncing back. This kind of movement is a classic bull recovery rhythm—when it’s gone up too much, it’s time for a correction, but the structure hasn’t broken, so don’t mistake the correction for a reversal. Ethereum also surged yesterday, and naturally, the pullback was sharper, currently retracing nearly 60 points to consolidate around 1,790. However, the overall upward structure remains intact, and we can still expect some upward testing ahead.

On the daily chart, after the big bullish candle, the latter half of the body clearly narrowed, leaving a long upper shadow. This indicates that the move above 67,000 was a false breakout, as it hasn’t held strong. On the hourly chart, 67,250 has created short-term resistance, a result of the recent steep rallies, and the market needs some time to digest this. Even after the false breakout at 67,000, although the market has consistently retraced, there hasn’t been a collapse, and the volume-price action remains under control. This is just a healthy adjustment, not a prelude to an avalanche. The market is still breathing normally, so let’s be patient and wait for stabilization to find more long opportunities.

You can go long on Bitcoin around 66,000, targeting 67,500. For Ethereum, consider going long in the 1,760-1,780 range, aiming for 1,830. $BTC $ETH

$BTC 6.14 Morning Strategy Share
Overnight, Bitcoin spiked to around 64300 before a slight pullback, hitting a low of 63800. It's currently oscillating above 64000. It's clear there's significant resistance above, with the price repeatedly battling around the 64000 mark. I've mentioned multiple times to position for shorts. Regardless of whether we can effectively break through the resistance zone, you can check the complete strategy in last night's updated mid-to-long term analysis. For now, the short-term outlook remains bearish at these high levels.

From the 1-hour chart, we've tested the resistance zone several times without a solid breakthrough. The highs are gradually increasing, but frequent upper wicks indicate ongoing selling pressure, and the bullish momentum is showing signs of fatigue. While the short-term moving averages are still trending up, the candlestick bodies are clearly narrowing. The longer we consolidate at these highs, the higher the probability of a pullback, and the rebound process hasn’t formed a sustainable volume-driven breakout; it looks more like a weak rebound followed by high-level oscillation, providing a suitable entry window for shorts. On the 4-hour chart, the rebound rhythm has noticeably slowed down. As we approach the resistance level, there are no signs of a volume breakout; instead, we see signs of diminishing volume, indicating that the bulls lack the strength to push the price higher, making it easier to form a bearish signal of 'high-level stagnation'.

Sunday morning trading advice for Bitcoin: Short around 64200-64700, targeting 63000; for Ethereum, short around 1680-1700, targeting 1650.

$ZEC crap coin, just tanked over 30k gas.

Six years ago, he only had a $1500 principal, and now his account has accumulated over 9 million in assets. The most impressive part is that over these six years, he has never touched high leverage, never chased insider information, and never gambled on the volatile moonshots of sketchy coins. He has consistently taken a steady approach and outperformed the vast majority of traders. $BNB
When I asked him for his profit secrets, he simply said, 'Only profit from the trends I understand; the profits I don't understand, I leave for others.'
After a long night of discussion, I summarized his core trading principles that he has adhered to for many years. They may seem clumsy, but they are incredibly practical.
First, differentiate between a pullback and a true top. A slow decline after a rapid increase is mostly just the big players washing the market, so there's no need to panic; the real risk is a sudden crash followed by a continued inability to rebound. Once you hesitate in such a market, you can easily get deeply trapped.
Second, understand the true volume when exiting. High volume at a peak doesn't necessarily mean the market is ending, but if there’s sustained low volume and capital exhaustion at a high point, it indicates that no one is picking up the slack and the big players are quietly retreating. That's a solid exit signal.
Third, refuse to trade based on single candlestick emotions. True bull markets don’t come from a single-day surge but from a continuous accumulation of funds over days or weeks. Avoid being impulsively swayed by a single candlestick.
One thing he said really struck me: Most people in the crypto space lose not because they can't understand the market, but because they are too anxious. Always thinking about capturing the quickest profits, they end up frequently missing out and getting trapped repeatedly.

$ZEC Speedy entry on the long side, daily chart shows bullish breakout

Let me drop the most important point: focus on survival first, then think about profit.
A lot of folks jump into the market hoping to double their stack, but they can't even last through one cycle. I’ve set some hard rules for myself; I gotta manage my positions, if I hit my stop loss, I’m out—no excuses, no stories.
Sounds conservative, but these rules have helped me dodge most of the major pitfalls over the years.
And one more thing, making money often comes from waiting, not over-trading.
I used to crank out over ten trades a day, busy as if I had a 9 to 5, only to realize my gains were less than the fees.
Now it’s way simpler: if I understand, I trade; if not, I wait.
Max two trades a day—after that, it’s likely just emotions taking over.

Today, ETH pulled back from 2023 to 1991, with a volatility of 3.4%. On the surface, it looks like a technical adjustment, but considering the macro environment, I think we need to pay attention to two points: First, the New York Fed data shows SOFR slightly rising to 3.63%, indicating a marginal tightening of the liquidity environment; second, traders have moved the rate hike expectations up to October, with a 50% probability. This puts pressure on the valuation of risk assets. The moat for ETH lies in its ecosystem activity, but the stability of short-term free cash flow is affected by regulation and interest rates. I don't believe there's a clear margin of safety at the current price levels; let's wait for the Q3 earnings report, especially to see if on-chain activity data can support the current valuation. Regarding the AI hype and remote work news, while it doesn't directly impact ETH, it reflects a repricing of the market's perception of technological productivity distribution, which could indirectly influence risk appetite.