心想事橙y

From now on, I will stock up on goods with this number @Hey小旭 🫡

The worst-performing asset in 2025 is cryptocurrency.
This is not the first time BTC has been humiliated in history.
It's just that currently, people are buying coal instead of sports cars.$BTC

Gold vs Bitcoin vs Stocks, the essence is not 'who makes more', but 'what do you rely on to survive'.

Gold
It does not generate returns, but can preserve life.
When currency devalues, geopolitical conflicts arise, and systems become unstable,
Gold has only one function:
👉 It prevents you from being kicked out of the era.
It is the 'ballast' among assets, not the engine.

Bitcoin
It is unstable, but explosive.
Essentially, it is a vote of no confidence in the credit system.
What you buy is not technology, but consensus.
If you win the bet, you can leap in class;
If you lose the bet, the volatility will penetrate your mindset.
👉 It is leverage, not the chassis.

Stocks
The most reliable value-added tool in the long term.
Because behind it are real enterprises, cash flow, and productivity.
But the premise is:
You must choose the right country, industry, and cycle.
A bull market makes you feel like a stock god,
A bear market will teach you what 'risk premium' means.
👉 It is a money-making machine, but the premise is that you live long enough.

In summary:

Gold prevents you from being taken out by systemic risks.
Bitcoin bets on whether you can catch a crack in the era.
Stocks determine whether you can keep moving upward in the long term.

A truly mature investor
never goes all in on faith,
but leaves room for all three.

Don't ask which is the best, first ask— which one can help you sleep at night. $BTC

1: Do not overspend

2: Smart investing

3: Stay away from toxic people

4: Commit to lifelong learning

5: Engage in delayed gratification, you will almost certainly succeed.

——Munger

Goodbye, contract! $ETH

Now there are less than two weeks left until the end of 2025. If it closes at the current price, the annual return will be approximately -8%. 2025 will become the worst return year in Bitcoin's history after the halving. $BTC

2025 to present asset performance

S&P 500: 14.9%
Nasdaq: 17.6%
Gold: 60%
BTC: -6%
ETH: -12.9%

In the past week, whales purchased 54,000 BTC worth approximately $4.66 billion, but the price of Bitcoin has not increased much. The reasons are:
1. The net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs is greater than the net inflow.
2. With interest rate hikes imminent in Japan, both institutions and retail investors are panic selling $BTC .

The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 0.25% on December 19, which is the day after tomorrow.

During the last three interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the price of Bitcoin has decreased each time.
March 2024 → -24%
July 2024 → -30%
January 2025 → -32%
December 2025 → _____

The bonus of BTC is gradually disappearing

If you bought BTC at the peak in 2017 and held it until now, after 8 years, its return rate can only match that of Microsoft/Apple

If you bought BTC at the low point of the bear market, you could outperform 7 golden flowers, because BTC's decline was larger

But this volatility is shrinking year by year, becoming closer to tech stocks like Microsoft and Apple, making the chance of relying on hoarding BTC to get rich in a bear market increasingly small $BTC

Only 15 days left until the end of 2025. Looking back at this year's predictions from these old guys for Bitcoin by the end of the year.

100,000 - Standard Chartered
150,000 - Star Thompson
170,000 - JPMorgan
180,000 - VanEck
200,000 - Tom Lee
200,000 - Bernstein
250,000 - Old Black Arthur Hayes

Stuck - I$BTC

How do people gradually waste away, which ones have you experienced?
1. Lazy
2. Procrastination
3. Poor self-control
4. Constant mental exhaustion
5. Addicted to games
6. Stop thinking and learning
7. Pretending to be ambitious and hardworking
8. Always just talking and not doing
9. Often staying up late $BTC

Once called poor, now called consumption downgrade;
Once called pretending, now called establishing social connections;
Once called going with the flow, now called checking in;
Once called a big fool, now called family;
Once called unemployed drifter, now called freelancer;
Once called lazy and indulgent, now called lying flat;
Once called toadying, now called providing emotional value;
Once called introverted, now called social anxiety;
Once called sulking, now called internal friction.$BTC

To become a great expert in investment, the first rule is to dispel the illusion.
In any investment or even speculation, you can only believe in yourself, and you must believe in yourself.

Dispelling the illusion is the greatest independent thinking; the most dangerous thing is believing the judgment of big shots who seem much stronger than you, such as Buffett saying that Bitcoin is rubbish, which does not prevent another person from making a profit.

The essence of independent thinking is to trust yourself, of course, you should listen to others, but you can only trust yourself.

In case of time travel, please remember the following time points:

1. In 1977, you must take the college entrance examination

2. In 1982, go to Shenzhen to make a living

3. In 1993, use bank money to purchase a house in Shanghai Pudong

4. In 1995, buy several siheyuan in Beijing

5. In 2001, buy Moutai stocks

6. In 2009, go all out for BTC

7. In 2018, engage in self-media

8. In 2023, exchange excess money for gold $BTC

Duan Yongping said that if he could go back to graduation from university in a state of having nothing, he might have a few directions to strive for:

One is to teach others how to prepare for the college entrance examination. He said that he managed to pass despite his difficulties, so he would charge others for teaching, and if they failed, he would refund the money, believing that he could survive.

The second is to find a company he likes, with a boss he likes, and work hard, hoping to be valued. (This plan is excellent; it's enjoyable to work, and he can learn from strong individuals.)

He said that there are more opportunities now $BTC .

Charlie Munger on the Six Core Pseudo-Assets

1. Mansions Beyond One's Means: Vanity-Driven Home Purchases Become Lifelong Debt

2. Luxury Cars: A Car Loses 20% of its Value Upon Purchase, Annual Depreciation of 15%-20%, Should Be Limited to 10% of Annual Income

3. Complex Financial Products: High-Fee Actively Managed Funds Lose Over Half Their Returns in 30 Years

4. Non-Productive Assets: Gold and Bitcoin Lack Cash Flow, Essentially a Game of Fooling Each Other (This Point is Not Agreed Upon)

5. Frequent Trading: Disrupts Compounding, Incurs Fees, Leads to Emotional Decisions

6. Credit Debt: High-Interest Credit Cards are Wealth Vampires $BTC

Now we have come to a critical historical turning point, is it a bet that the US stock market will crash, or will it not crash $BTC

The most expensive consumption for an ordinary person in their lifetime is not buying a house or a car, but rather buying a lifetime of the illusion of feeling successful.

I have seen too many people online using loans at 30 to buy a car, having their assets reduced to zero at 40, and still paying interest on bags from 20 years ago at 50.

The most ironic thing is that those who truly rely on compound interest to turn their situation around never consume compound interest in advance.

What they do is always against human nature —
first, they compress spending below survival level,
throw every penny into assets that can generate income,
and then exchange time for space.

And 99% of people do the opposite of compound interest:
using future cash flow over 30 years,
to exchange for 3 seconds of likes on social media today.

The data doesn’t lie.
By 2024, the leverage ratio of residents has approached 140%,
with an average debt of over 40,000 for Huabei, Jiebei, and BaiTiao users,
90s average 3.5 credit cards,
yet 70% of people are living paycheck to paycheck, even with negative cash flow.

This is not consumption; this is chronic suicide.
It just happens too slowly to feel the pain.

Often, the harshest group of people,
a monthly salary of 10,000 is lived on with a monthly expenditure of 3,000,
and the remaining 7,000 is all invested in index funds, down payments on properties, or their own businesses.
Others laugh at them for being frugal, but they just smile in response.

Ten years later,
the ones who laughed at others are still paying off their mortgages,
while those who were laughed at have already reached a cash flow of over a million a year.

The real barrier to compound interest has never been money,
it is enduring what ordinary people cannot endure — the “poverty.”

The face you put on today,
you will have to pay interest on tomorrow.

Understanding this point,
you will no longer exchange tomorrow's freedom
for today's face-saving.

Finally:
everything that makes you consume in advance
is essentially charging you 100 years of interest,
giving you only 3 days of pleasure.

Don’t be fooled.

Leave your money to time,
not to desire.

That is what compound interest is. $BTC

The Chinese government is now trying every means to get you to withdraw your savings,

1. Crack down on virtual currencies.
2. Gold is at a high price, and you dare not invest.
3. Subsidies to encourage you to buy cars.
4. Subsidies to encourage you to have more children.
5. Creating hot stocks to encourage you to open accounts and increase your investments.
6. Interest subsidies to encourage you to buy houses.

Six aspects united, acting together, less money for cars and children, more money for stocks and houses, each finds its own positioning, welcome to add more! $ETH