想要成为巨鲸
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1.30 Prediction Result
Still got it, bro, but I didn't expect the esports prediction to be so much higher. I thought the threshold of 55,000 was already quite high, but the result shows it only takes 13,000 to achieve it. I can only say that the top transactions in the earlier part were too frequent, resulting in a serious gap between the two parts. This is something I really didn't expect, and it's the first time I've encountered such a situation since participating in the trading competition. But fortunately, CLO has steadily achieved it; the threshold for CLO is just under 6,000, which is almost identical to the threshold we predicted yesterday, around 5-6,000. As I said, brushing 6,500-7,000 would have been enough. The subsequent trading competition will end around the 2.4-2.5 mark. We will look at the data then to make predictions. If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask me, and we can discuss it together. Brothers who want to see future predictions can also follow me; I will post the prediction results one hour before the end, making it more accurate to predict daily trading volume. @Plasma#Plasma
Tonight at 9 PM, the $ESPORTS and $CLO trading competitions will end. Their current values are 31u and just under 12u, respectively. These two are still quite difficult to predict, especially CLO, as it mainly involves people just playing around and trying to steal the leaderboard. As usual, I will directly save bandwidth in the last section to share the prediction results. For those who do not want to see the intermediate data analysis, you can jump straight to the last section to see the prediction results.
First is $ESPORTS, with a daily trading volume of 470 million as of today, November 30. If today ends, it will probably be around 550 million in daily trading volume, and I feel it will not exceed 600 million in daily trading volume, with a total of 6900 spots available. Based on a 60% leaderboard rate, that would be 600000000×60%÷6900=52173.913043478. If the daily trading volume is 650 million, the threshold would be 650000000×60%÷6900=56521.739130435, but I don't think it will reach that much. Therefore, the precise threshold line is around 55,000; it should not reach 60,000, and 65,000 is basically quite stable. If seeking stability, 65,000 can be used, while 60,000 is basically right on the edge of the threshold line.
The remaining one is CLO, which is more difficult to handle. Most people are planning to trade a few thousand to steal the leaderboard. As of today at noon, November 30, the daily trading volume is 6.33 million. This is quite tricky, as most people are trading a few thousand to try and steal the leaderboard, making it difficult to predict. However, if it stays as it is, the daily trading volume will not increase too much. I feel that by the end of today, it will probably be around 8 to 9 million in daily trading volume. Based on 9 million in daily trading volume, we cannot use a 60% leaderboard rate because everyone is similar, all trading a few thousand in reality. Therefore, we can only use a 25% leaderboard rate: 90000000×25%÷3330=6756.756756757, but I feel it will not reach 9 million in daily trading volume. Thus, the threshold line for CLO is around 5,000 to 6,000, with 6,500 basically being enough. If seeking stability, 7,000 can be used.
In summary, the threshold line for esports is just under 60,000, around 55,000. Trading at 60,000 is quite risky, as it is basically on the edge; if seeking stability, 65,000 to 70,000 can be traded; the threshold line for CLO is around 5,000 to 6,000, and if you want to steal the leaderboard, trading at 6,500 to 7,000 will suffice.
First is $ESPORTS, with a daily trading volume of 470 million as of today, November 30. If today ends, it will probably be around 550 million in daily trading volume, and I feel it will not exceed 600 million in daily trading volume, with a total of 6900 spots available. Based on a 60% leaderboard rate, that would be 600000000×60%÷6900=52173.913043478. If the daily trading volume is 650 million, the threshold would be 650000000×60%÷6900=56521.739130435, but I don't think it will reach that much. Therefore, the precise threshold line is around 55,000; it should not reach 60,000, and 65,000 is basically quite stable. If seeking stability, 65,000 can be used, while 60,000 is basically right on the edge of the threshold line.
The remaining one is CLO, which is more difficult to handle. Most people are planning to trade a few thousand to steal the leaderboard. As of today at noon, November 30, the daily trading volume is 6.33 million. This is quite tricky, as most people are trading a few thousand to try and steal the leaderboard, making it difficult to predict. However, if it stays as it is, the daily trading volume will not increase too much. I feel that by the end of today, it will probably be around 8 to 9 million in daily trading volume. Based on 9 million in daily trading volume, we cannot use a 60% leaderboard rate because everyone is similar, all trading a few thousand in reality. Therefore, we can only use a 25% leaderboard rate: 90000000×25%÷3330=6756.756756757, but I feel it will not reach 9 million in daily trading volume. Thus, the threshold line for CLO is around 5,000 to 6,000, with 6,500 basically being enough. If seeking stability, 7,000 can be used.
In summary, the threshold line for esports is just under 60,000, around 55,000. Trading at 60,000 is quite risky, as it is basically on the edge; if seeking stability, 65,000 to 70,000 can be traded; the threshold line for CLO is around 5,000 to 6,000, and if you want to steal the leaderboard, trading at 6,500 to 7,000 will suffice.
What do you say, brothers? Today the threshold line for $MGO has come out, just under 100,000, still steadily secured. Because there is a delay in the data, I can only try to post it about half an hour before the competition ends, otherwise it’s hard to predict the daily trading volume. Brothers who want to sneak onto the leaderboard and those who are worried about the stability of the trading competition can take a look at my predictions for reference, all based on daily trading volume data, not random guesses, and I won’t predict too high; the prediction error is generally within ±10,000.
Tonight there are two trading competitions, and I will send my predictions again tonight from 8:00 to 8:30 PM, trying to post about an hour before the end, which increases the accuracy of the predictions.
Tonight there are two trading competitions, and I will send my predictions again tonight from 8:00 to 8:30 PM, trying to post about an hour before the end, which increases the accuracy of the predictions.
Tonight at nine o'clock, the $MGO competition deadline is approaching. There hasn't been much data in the past few days; everyone plans to make a last-minute push on the final day. The prize for this competition is 33u. I have a wear value of around 0.02, which might not even reach that. The data shows that the daily trading volume at noon today was already around 300 million. Yesterday's trading volume of 230 million only added 10,000. However, today will definitely exceed 300 million in trading volume. By the end of today, there should be at least 400 million to 500 million in trading volume. This is again double, not quadruple points. Most participants are focused on the trading competition. If we consider a median value of 450 million daily trading volume, with 3,300 spots available, taking the top 60% of spots and 40% as fillers, then basically around 80,000 real transactions should be enough. I already completed a bit more than 50,000 yesterday and over 20,000 today. I will add a bit more later to reach 110,000; 110,000 should definitely be sufficient. I feel that the threshold might be around 80,000 to 90,000.
Of course, this is just my personal prediction, and everyone can take it as a reference.
Of course, this is just my personal prediction, and everyone can take it as a reference.
New rules for the alpha trading competition! Check out the latest changes, what are the differences between the latest owl trading competition and previous trading competitions!
The owl competition starts tonight at nine o'clock. This time, the alpha competition has new rules; one change is that we must first enter alpha, trade competition. Click on the owl competition, click to register, and only after completing the registration can we start participating in the owl trading competition for our trading volume to be counted; otherwise, it will be invalid.
Alas, unfortunately, I finished my trading this afternoon, but it doesn’t matter; in a day, it only differs by twenty or thirty thousand. This time, the reward quota is for the top 3400, with each person receiving 460$OWL , approximately 460×0.063=28.98, roughly around 30u. If this is a stablecoin, then that’s fine; we can trade points and also compensate for some wear and tear. If it's not stable, we can only trade twenty or thirty thousand a day or wait until the last day to sneak onto the leaderboard.
Alas, unfortunately, I finished my trading this afternoon, but it doesn’t matter; in a day, it only differs by twenty or thirty thousand. This time, the reward quota is for the top 3400, with each person receiving 460$OWL , approximately 460×0.063=28.98, roughly around 30u. If this is a stablecoin, then that’s fine; we can trade points and also compensate for some wear and tear. If it's not stable, we can only trade twenty or thirty thousand a day or wait until the last day to sneak onto the leaderboard.
BSC Competition
Today at 11 o'clock, I sent out the BSC competition rewards, a total of 161u, which is basically enough to cover the wear and tear of three leagues. Except for the first IR, which has basically been fully refunded, the other two leagues have one stable that might cover the wear and tear, and there might be a little profit, earning around 10u. Besides IR, the other two leagues are basically at a wear rate of about 0.02. Power has also successfully stolen the leaderboard. The profits from these two are enough to cover the wear of IR, and I might earn another 10-20u. Originally, I thought the three rewards together would be a maximum of 140u, but I didn't expect it to reach 160u. It's pretty good; not only does it cover some of the wear from brushing airdrops, but it also earns a little. These three competitions, except for the IR which was brushed today at a 4x rate, are generally brushed at one or two tens of thousands every day, combined with 4x coins to brush together. Looking at it this way, basically, the wear from the airdrop handling fees over these 14 days can be considered as 0 wear. Currently, the airdrop market is not very good, and the competition can be brushed together with airdrops, which basically allows the competition rewards to cover the wear from brushing airdrops.
Yesterday's BSC league prediction results
The actual threshold for ir is 3,130,000, and I predict a threshold of 3,050,000, with a stable estimate at 3,150,000; the actual threshold for power is 650,000, I predict 500,000, with a stable estimate at 600,000; the actual threshold for stable is 2,680,000, I predict 2,550,000, aiming for a stable 2,650,000.
These three are calculated with 8 times because of the league, and the actual thresholds are basically within a deviation of 10,000 from my predicted stable line. I have taken all three, and if I were to do it myself, I would basically exceed 100,000. I don't want to predict the threshold too high; my prediction is based on daily trading volume and its growth trend, aiming to predict as accurately as possible. If I predict too high, exceeding too much makes the prediction meaningless and just leads to self-competition. Because I have a league, I started scoring as soon as the league began. I always exceed the threshold by several thousand in actual performance. The predictions I provide are basically towards the threshold line, and if everyone is looking for stability, adding 10,000 to my predictions is enough. This way, it's stable and won't lead to excessive waste due to wear.
These three are calculated with 8 times because of the league, and the actual thresholds are basically within a deviation of 10,000 from my predicted stable line. I have taken all three, and if I were to do it myself, I would basically exceed 100,000. I don't want to predict the threshold too high; my prediction is based on daily trading volume and its growth trend, aiming to predict as accurately as possible. If I predict too high, exceeding too much makes the prediction meaningless and just leads to self-competition. Because I have a league, I started scoring as soon as the league began. I always exceed the threshold by several thousand in actual performance. The predictions I provide are basically towards the threshold line, and if everyone is looking for stability, adding 10,000 to my predictions is enough. This way, it's stable and won't lead to excessive waste due to wear.
Tonight at 9 PM, the BSC trading competition will end. If anyone needs data or wants to sneak a peek at the power rankings, feel free to take a look. I will briefly mention the criteria for judgment and the predicted results. If you find it tedious, you can go straight to the last section where I will summarize the predictions for each of the three competitions. Currently, I can only see the trading volume data from 11:20 AM on the 26th, so the subsequent score lines and trading volumes can only rely on predictions.
First is $IR, with less than 10 hours remaining. Currently, there is already a daily trading volume of 145 million. Yesterday, the daily trading volume was 200 million, and today, with only 13 hours, the time is roughly half of yesterday. I feel that by the end at 9 PM, there will be around 200 million daily trading volume. Personally, I think it could peak at 250 million daily trading volume because many people are going to brush power and stable, which will divert traffic, and the reward is only 36u, so it shouldn't increase too much. Yesterday's 200 million daily trading volume added less than 220,000, so I feel today's score line will be around 3.1 million, and for stability, it could reach 3.15 million.
Next is $POWER. Many people plan to sneak a peek at the rankings, and there has been no data for the past few days, making it hard to predict. Yesterday's daily trading volume was almost 350 million, and by 11:20 AM today, there is already nearly 450 million daily trading volume. Yesterday was over 10,000, and most people today probably want to sneak a peek at the power rankings. I feel the score line will be around 650,000, and for stability, it could reach 700,000.
Finally, there is $STABLE, which is 74u. This competition will definitely be much more intense than IR. Yesterday's daily trading volume was 440 million, and yesterday's score line added almost 600,000. By 11:20 AM today, there is already nearly 390 million daily trading volume. Based on the current trend, I feel that by the end of the night, the daily trading volume may reach around 500 million. From this perspective, the stable score line will be around 2.65 million. For stability, it could reach 2.75 million.
To summarize: IR: 3.1 million, for stability 3.15 million; POWER: 650,000, for stability 700,000; STABLE: 2.65 million, for stability 2.75 million. Of course, this is just personal prediction, providing a reference for everyone.
Additionally, to inform everyone, $XPL is a public chain created specifically for transferring the stablecoin USDT by the @Plasma project team. There are no fees except for GAS fees, fast transaction speed in milliseconds, stable, secure, and quick. For transferring USDT, use #Plasma
#Plasma $XPL @Plasma
First is $IR, with less than 10 hours remaining. Currently, there is already a daily trading volume of 145 million. Yesterday, the daily trading volume was 200 million, and today, with only 13 hours, the time is roughly half of yesterday. I feel that by the end at 9 PM, there will be around 200 million daily trading volume. Personally, I think it could peak at 250 million daily trading volume because many people are going to brush power and stable, which will divert traffic, and the reward is only 36u, so it shouldn't increase too much. Yesterday's 200 million daily trading volume added less than 220,000, so I feel today's score line will be around 3.1 million, and for stability, it could reach 3.15 million.
Next is $POWER. Many people plan to sneak a peek at the rankings, and there has been no data for the past few days, making it hard to predict. Yesterday's daily trading volume was almost 350 million, and by 11:20 AM today, there is already nearly 450 million daily trading volume. Yesterday was over 10,000, and most people today probably want to sneak a peek at the power rankings. I feel the score line will be around 650,000, and for stability, it could reach 700,000.
Finally, there is $STABLE, which is 74u. This competition will definitely be much more intense than IR. Yesterday's daily trading volume was 440 million, and yesterday's score line added almost 600,000. By 11:20 AM today, there is already nearly 390 million daily trading volume. Based on the current trend, I feel that by the end of the night, the daily trading volume may reach around 500 million. From this perspective, the stable score line will be around 2.65 million. For stability, it could reach 2.75 million.
To summarize: IR: 3.1 million, for stability 3.15 million; POWER: 650,000, for stability 700,000; STABLE: 2.65 million, for stability 2.75 million. Of course, this is just personal prediction, providing a reference for everyone.
Additionally, to inform everyone, $XPL is a public chain created specifically for transferring the stablecoin USDT by the @Plasma project team. There are no fees except for GAS fees, fast transaction speed in milliseconds, stable, secure, and quick. For transferring USDT, use #Plasma
#Plasma $XPL @Plasma
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