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Gulsby’s warning to "take away the wine bowl" is no joking matter! The dovish faction's reversal reveals the truth about the Federal Reserve's easing
The crypto market just celebrated the rate cut for December for two days, and Gulsby’s call to "take away the wine bowl" doused the market with cold water—this former dovish heavyweight not only voted against the rate cut but also stated that easing should be withdrawn when the economy overheats. This operation hides signals that the crypto market should be most wary of.
Don’t think this is just “hawkish rhetoric”; Gulsby’s reversal has been foreshadowed. The trend of falling inflation has already stagnated, with the core PCE still at 2.8% in September. Businesses and consumers are still viewing prices as a major concern, and key data like November's non-farm payrolls have yet to be released. In this context, rushing to cut interest rates is essentially betting that inflation will cool off on its own. More importantly, he pointed out the core logic: to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve should take away the wine bowl when the party is at its peak, rather than waiting for the bubble to burst before remedying the situation.
The impact on the crypto sphere is far more direct than one might imagine. Cryptocurrencies are liquidity-sensitive assets, and the narrative of the “easing cycle starting” that the market previously fervently speculated on has crumbled in the face of the internal division within the Federal Reserve—this week, three officials have already opposed a rate cut, and Gulsby’s statement further confirms that easing will not be smooth sailing. It’s worth noting that after the rate cut in October, altcoins surged due to liquidity injection, but now the warning of “taking away the wine bowl” suggests that future liquidity may not meet expectations, with highly leveraged altcoins being the first to bear the brunt.
The key variables ahead are the delayed inflation and employment data releases. If the data shows that inflation remains resilient, Gulsby’s “take away the wine bowl” theory may gain more support, and expectations for rate cuts next year will further cool, potentially leading to a valuation adjustment for Bitcoin and Ethereum; if the data cools down, the market may temporarily digest hawkish pressure, but long-term expectations for easing have already been questioned.
It is advisable to currently reduce leverage positions, focus on the core data outcomes and adjustments in the Federal Reserve's dot plot, and not be swayed by short-term market movements. The crypto market has always been about “liquidity determining life and death,” and Gulsby’s dovish reversal serves as a reminder to everyone: amid the celebration, don't forget that the Federal Reserve could take away the wine bowl at any time.
$JELLYJELLY
$PROMPT
$BEAT
The crypto market just celebrated the rate cut for December for two days, and Gulsby’s call to "take away the wine bowl" doused the market with cold water—this former dovish heavyweight not only voted against the rate cut but also stated that easing should be withdrawn when the economy overheats. This operation hides signals that the crypto market should be most wary of.
Don’t think this is just “hawkish rhetoric”; Gulsby’s reversal has been foreshadowed. The trend of falling inflation has already stagnated, with the core PCE still at 2.8% in September. Businesses and consumers are still viewing prices as a major concern, and key data like November's non-farm payrolls have yet to be released. In this context, rushing to cut interest rates is essentially betting that inflation will cool off on its own. More importantly, he pointed out the core logic: to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve should take away the wine bowl when the party is at its peak, rather than waiting for the bubble to burst before remedying the situation.
The impact on the crypto sphere is far more direct than one might imagine. Cryptocurrencies are liquidity-sensitive assets, and the narrative of the “easing cycle starting” that the market previously fervently speculated on has crumbled in the face of the internal division within the Federal Reserve—this week, three officials have already opposed a rate cut, and Gulsby’s statement further confirms that easing will not be smooth sailing. It’s worth noting that after the rate cut in October, altcoins surged due to liquidity injection, but now the warning of “taking away the wine bowl” suggests that future liquidity may not meet expectations, with highly leveraged altcoins being the first to bear the brunt.
The key variables ahead are the delayed inflation and employment data releases. If the data shows that inflation remains resilient, Gulsby’s “take away the wine bowl” theory may gain more support, and expectations for rate cuts next year will further cool, potentially leading to a valuation adjustment for Bitcoin and Ethereum; if the data cools down, the market may temporarily digest hawkish pressure, but long-term expectations for easing have already been questioned.
It is advisable to currently reduce leverage positions, focus on the core data outcomes and adjustments in the Federal Reserve's dot plot, and not be swayed by short-term market movements. The crypto market has always been about “liquidity determining life and death,” and Gulsby’s dovish reversal serves as a reminder to everyone: amid the celebration, don't forget that the Federal Reserve could take away the wine bowl at any time.
$JELLYJELLY
$PROMPT
$BEAT
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The Bank of Canada warns of a hawkish interest rate cut; is the frenzy in the crypto market just a flash in the pan?
Seeing the statement from Skiba of the Bank of Canada, I immediately flipped through the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting minutes from the past six months. This wave of 'cutting rates but not continuing to cut' is like throwing a bucket of cold water on the frenzy in the crypto market.
Let's break down the core logic: a hawkish interest rate cut essentially means 'cut once and stop,' which is completely different from the market's previous expectation of an 'interest rate cut cycle.' It's important to understand how sensitive the crypto market is to liquidity—last year, when the Federal Reserve signaled an interest rate cut, BTC surged directly from $60,000 to $100,000, driven by expectations of continued liquidity. But this time is different; the U.S. economic data hasn't collapsed, and both employment and inflation haven't reached a hard landing stage, so the Federal Reserve has no need to continuously cut rates. This means that the market's hope for significant liquidity injection is likely to go down the drain.
For the crypto market, there may be a short-term impulsive rise, as the implementation of rate cuts will release some liquidity, and mainstream coins like BTC and ETH might ride a wave of heat. But don't expect the rise to last too long; once the Federal Reserve clearly indicates a 'pause in rate cuts,' investors will immediately realize the expectation gap, and retail investors who chased the highs could get stuck. Especially for altcoins, many meme coins are already speculating on rate cut expectations, and they are likely to be the first to crash.
Moreover, it's important to note the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve—if any committee member advocates for a more significant rate cut, market sentiment may fluctuate. However, based on the current economic fundamentals, a hawkish stance is likely to prevail since no one wants to repeat the mistakes of uncontrollable inflation in 2021.
The advice for friends in the circle is simple: don’t chase the highs on the day the rate cut is implemented; instead, you can reduce your holdings of mainstream coins when prices are high; if the Federal Reserve really pauses rate cuts later, the crypto market is likely to retest previous support levels, and buying low then would be a more prudent choice.
$PIPPIN
$AIOT
$AXL
Seeing the statement from Skiba of the Bank of Canada, I immediately flipped through the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting minutes from the past six months. This wave of 'cutting rates but not continuing to cut' is like throwing a bucket of cold water on the frenzy in the crypto market.
Let's break down the core logic: a hawkish interest rate cut essentially means 'cut once and stop,' which is completely different from the market's previous expectation of an 'interest rate cut cycle.' It's important to understand how sensitive the crypto market is to liquidity—last year, when the Federal Reserve signaled an interest rate cut, BTC surged directly from $60,000 to $100,000, driven by expectations of continued liquidity. But this time is different; the U.S. economic data hasn't collapsed, and both employment and inflation haven't reached a hard landing stage, so the Federal Reserve has no need to continuously cut rates. This means that the market's hope for significant liquidity injection is likely to go down the drain.
For the crypto market, there may be a short-term impulsive rise, as the implementation of rate cuts will release some liquidity, and mainstream coins like BTC and ETH might ride a wave of heat. But don't expect the rise to last too long; once the Federal Reserve clearly indicates a 'pause in rate cuts,' investors will immediately realize the expectation gap, and retail investors who chased the highs could get stuck. Especially for altcoins, many meme coins are already speculating on rate cut expectations, and they are likely to be the first to crash.
Moreover, it's important to note the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve—if any committee member advocates for a more significant rate cut, market sentiment may fluctuate. However, based on the current economic fundamentals, a hawkish stance is likely to prevail since no one wants to repeat the mistakes of uncontrollable inflation in 2021.
The advice for friends in the circle is simple: don’t chase the highs on the day the rate cut is implemented; instead, you can reduce your holdings of mainstream coins when prices are high; if the Federal Reserve really pauses rate cuts later, the crypto market is likely to retest previous support levels, and buying low then would be a more prudent choice.
$PIPPIN
$AIOT
$AXL
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Sister Mei was scammed out of a million dollars by a pig-butchering scheme; do you really understand the pitfalls of romance scams in the cryptocurrency world?
Today I came across a big story: a sister from California was scammed out of nearly a million dollars by a cryptocurrency pig-butchering scheme. In the end, she relied on ChatGPT to realize she had fallen into a trap. We seasoned investors in the cryptocurrency world shook our heads in disbelief after reading it.
This sister Margaret met a self-proclaimed rich man named Ed on Facebook in May. He first wooed her with romantic talk, employing emotional PUA tactics, and then got her to invest in cryptocurrency. The sister was bold; she directly withdrew $490,000 from her retirement account and even took out a second mortgage on her house to invest another $300,000. As a result, her account was frozen, and the scammer asked her to invest another $1,000,000 to unfreeze it. This operation was simply the very definition of “butchering pigs.”
We all know in the cryptocurrency world that there’s no such thing as “paying money to unfreeze your account.” This is a classic pig-butchering tactic: first, they lure you in with sweet promises, then they use sunk costs to pressure you to invest more. What’s even more outrageous is that the stolen funds ended up in a Malaysian account. Those in the know understand that once such cross-border pig-butchering funds are transferred out, it’s basically like throwing meat buns to dogs—gone with no return.
In fact, this incident serves as a reminder for us: whether it’s Westerners or us Chinese, if you encounter a “rich handsome guy/beautiful woman” in the cryptocurrency world trying to get you to invest in private schemes, it’s best to turn and run. Even if ChatGPT can recognize scams, once the money is sent out, not even a deity can save you. We trade cryptocurrencies for profits, not to gamble with our lives. Don’t let emotions cloud your judgment, or you’ll end up being the “fat pig” in the eyes of the scammer.
$FHE
$POWER
$BNB
Today I came across a big story: a sister from California was scammed out of nearly a million dollars by a cryptocurrency pig-butchering scheme. In the end, she relied on ChatGPT to realize she had fallen into a trap. We seasoned investors in the cryptocurrency world shook our heads in disbelief after reading it.
This sister Margaret met a self-proclaimed rich man named Ed on Facebook in May. He first wooed her with romantic talk, employing emotional PUA tactics, and then got her to invest in cryptocurrency. The sister was bold; she directly withdrew $490,000 from her retirement account and even took out a second mortgage on her house to invest another $300,000. As a result, her account was frozen, and the scammer asked her to invest another $1,000,000 to unfreeze it. This operation was simply the very definition of “butchering pigs.”
We all know in the cryptocurrency world that there’s no such thing as “paying money to unfreeze your account.” This is a classic pig-butchering tactic: first, they lure you in with sweet promises, then they use sunk costs to pressure you to invest more. What’s even more outrageous is that the stolen funds ended up in a Malaysian account. Those in the know understand that once such cross-border pig-butchering funds are transferred out, it’s basically like throwing meat buns to dogs—gone with no return.
In fact, this incident serves as a reminder for us: whether it’s Westerners or us Chinese, if you encounter a “rich handsome guy/beautiful woman” in the cryptocurrency world trying to get you to invest in private schemes, it’s best to turn and run. Even if ChatGPT can recognize scams, once the money is sent out, not even a deity can save you. We trade cryptocurrencies for profits, not to gamble with our lives. Don’t let emotions cloud your judgment, or you’ll end up being the “fat pig” in the eyes of the scammer.
$FHE
$POWER
$BNB
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QT tonight ends, the liquidity tailwind for BTC has really arrived!
The Federal Reserve officially ends QT tonight at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, and this move directly sends a key signal to the crypto market!
To put it simply, the end of QT means that the market will no longer be drained of liquidity, shifting from liquidity contraction to a stable mode. The tension in interbank funding will ease, and the pressure on US Treasury yields will also decrease. The most crucial point is that the liquidity discount for high β assets like BTC will slowly disappear, and valuation recovery is a done deal.
But don't get it wrong, stopping QT is not the same as restarting QE; it simply means that the tightening cycle has completely come to an end. Going forward, the market's focus will shift from "the extent of balance sheet reduction" to "when will interest rates be lowered, and will there be balance sheet expansion," with the macro logic shifting from passively inflating bubbles to actively stabilizing the market. The policy bottom is already quite clear.
For BTC, this wave of liquidity easing is a solid positive. Coupled with previous expectations of interest rate cuts, its highly elastic characteristics are likely to be amplified. After all, in previous cases of improved liquidity environments, BTC's performance has never disappointed.
$PIPPIN
$UAI
$FOLKS
The Federal Reserve officially ends QT tonight at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, and this move directly sends a key signal to the crypto market!
To put it simply, the end of QT means that the market will no longer be drained of liquidity, shifting from liquidity contraction to a stable mode. The tension in interbank funding will ease, and the pressure on US Treasury yields will also decrease. The most crucial point is that the liquidity discount for high β assets like BTC will slowly disappear, and valuation recovery is a done deal.
But don't get it wrong, stopping QT is not the same as restarting QE; it simply means that the tightening cycle has completely come to an end. Going forward, the market's focus will shift from "the extent of balance sheet reduction" to "when will interest rates be lowered, and will there be balance sheet expansion," with the macro logic shifting from passively inflating bubbles to actively stabilizing the market. The policy bottom is already quite clear.
For BTC, this wave of liquidity easing is a solid positive. Coupled with previous expectations of interest rate cuts, its highly elastic characteristics are likely to be amplified. After all, in previous cases of improved liquidity environments, BTC's performance has never disappointed.
$PIPPIN
$UAI
$FOLKS
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Red Envelope🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧
Give everyone a big pancake🎁
#bigbox #BTC走势分析
#bigbox #BTC走势分析
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All efforts are only to stand out
Bowing and scraping is to fly higher
Satoshi Nakamoto, let me fly🚀🚀🚀
#特朗普加密新政
$BTC
Bowing and scraping is to fly higher
Satoshi Nakamoto, let me fly🚀🚀🚀
#特朗普加密新政
$BTC
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As expectations for interest rate cuts rise alongside Trump's new policy, is the crypto market facing a critical turning point?
Recently, two significant signals have injected new vitality and uncertainty into the crypto market.
On one hand, the expectation for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts is growing stronger. As inflation data shows signs of easing, the market begins to bet on the arrival of a rate-cutting cycle. History shows that loose monetary policy is often a 'catalyst' for risk assets. If rate cuts are implemented, global liquidity is expected to be replenished, and a large amount of capital seeking high returns may flow into the cryptocurrency space, providing strong upward momentum for Bitcoin and other mainstream tokens.
On the other hand, the outlook for the U.S. election brings imagination space at the policy level for the industry. Reports indicate that Trump claims to support cryptocurrency and promises to ensure its future in the U.S. This stance on the 'new crypto policy' sharply contrasts with the current regulatory authorities' tough attitude, allowing the market to long for a more friendly and clear regulatory environment.
On one hand, the expectation for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts is growing stronger. As inflation data shows signs of easing, the market begins to bet on the arrival of a rate-cutting cycle. History shows that loose monetary policy is often a 'catalyst' for risk assets. If rate cuts are implemented, global liquidity is expected to be replenished, and a large amount of capital seeking high returns may flow into the cryptocurrency space, providing strong upward momentum for Bitcoin and other mainstream tokens.
On the other hand, the outlook for the U.S. election brings imagination space at the policy level for the industry. Reports indicate that Trump claims to support cryptocurrency and promises to ensure its future in the U.S. This stance on the 'new crypto policy' sharply contrasts with the current regulatory authorities' tough attitude, allowing the market to long for a more friendly and clear regulatory environment.
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Red Envelope 🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧
2025 Ethereum Core Highlights: Dual Empowerment of Technology Implementation + Institutional Entry
ETH continues to release value potential this year, with energy consumption reduced by 99.98% after the PoS transition, becoming a benchmark for green blockchain. Layer 2 technology has reduced Gas fees by over 80%, with single transaction costs as low as $0.01, and platforms like Arbitrum achieving TPS exceeding 40,000.
Institutional layout is accelerating, with over $2.1 billion inflows in July 2025, major players like Goldman Sachs are increasing their holdings, and the staking rate has risen to 42%, with an annualized return of 4.8% outperforming traditional assets. Currently, ETH dominates the DeFi ecosystem, with a locked-up ratio of 71%, and the transfer volume of stablecoins exceeding 60%, solidifying its ecological advantages.
Technical upgrades are steadily advancing, with EIP-4844 optimizing data storage, and Verkle Tree lowering the threshold for nodes. The upcoming SSF protocol will reduce transaction confirmation to 8 seconds. Institutions predict that the optimistic price of ETH could reach $50,000 by 2030. The current resonance of technology implementation and institutional consensus highlights the long-term value worth paying attention to.
$币安人生 $ETH
#加密市场反弹
ETH continues to release value potential this year, with energy consumption reduced by 99.98% after the PoS transition, becoming a benchmark for green blockchain. Layer 2 technology has reduced Gas fees by over 80%, with single transaction costs as low as $0.01, and platforms like Arbitrum achieving TPS exceeding 40,000.
Institutional layout is accelerating, with over $2.1 billion inflows in July 2025, major players like Goldman Sachs are increasing their holdings, and the staking rate has risen to 42%, with an annualized return of 4.8% outperforming traditional assets. Currently, ETH dominates the DeFi ecosystem, with a locked-up ratio of 71%, and the transfer volume of stablecoins exceeding 60%, solidifying its ecological advantages.
Technical upgrades are steadily advancing, with EIP-4844 optimizing data storage, and Verkle Tree lowering the threshold for nodes. The upcoming SSF protocol will reduce transaction confirmation to 8 seconds. Institutions predict that the optimistic price of ETH could reach $50,000 by 2030. The current resonance of technology implementation and institutional consensus highlights the long-term value worth paying attention to.
$币安人生 $ETH
#加密市场反弹
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Tm_Crypto
--
whast your take on $BTC ?
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XRP:Classic Accumulation
XRP may be on the verge of a major price breakout, with crypto analyst identifying what they describe as "classic accumulation" signs. The analysis suggests that a strong $2.20 price support is holding despite low network activity, which may indicate that institutions are accumulating tokens off-chain.
Recent news and factors affecting XRP:
Institutional accumulation: Low retail investor activity, with active addresses around 15,000 to 19,000, has been interpreted as a sign of institutional accumulation taking place silently, potentially through OTC desks and custodial services.Upcoming breakout: The confluence of a stable price during retail scarcity and increasing institutional positioning could lead to a significant XRP price increase, especially if retail liquidity returns.ETF delays: Delays from the SEC due to a government shutdown had temporarily slowed down the altcoin ETF ecosystem, which may have impacted the expansion and price rally of XRP despite the launch of other altcoin ETFs.Institutional Adoption: Spot XRP ETFs are performing well, with institutional buying approaching the $1 billion mark. Grayscale's XRP ETF, in particular, launched on November 24.Whale Activity: Whale selling of $4 billion in XRP during November has tilted the supply-demand balance, reinforcing the bearish short-term sentiment.Analyst Outlook: Conflicting technical analyses surround XRP. Some analysts see potential for a run toward the $20 mark, while others have warned of potential price corrections.Market Sentiment: Market sentiment is currently uncertain, with neither extreme fear nor euphoria dominating. Ripple's Role: Ripple continues to make strategic moves to increase institutional adoption, including its acquisition of Hidden Road earlier in the year. The company holds a prime brokerage license in the US, allowing major financial firms like BlackRock to use the XRP Ledger.
Note: The analysis regarding institutional accumulation and a potential price breakout is based on the opinion of a crypto analyst and is not a guarantee of future performance. Market performance is subject to a variety of factors, including regulatory actions and investor sentiment.
Disclaimers:Info and knowledge sharing.Not a financial advice.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.(DYOR)
#Ripple #Xrp🔥🔥 #XRPGoal #HotTrends #bullish
Recent news and factors affecting XRP:
Institutional accumulation: Low retail investor activity, with active addresses around 15,000 to 19,000, has been interpreted as a sign of institutional accumulation taking place silently, potentially through OTC desks and custodial services.Upcoming breakout: The confluence of a stable price during retail scarcity and increasing institutional positioning could lead to a significant XRP price increase, especially if retail liquidity returns.ETF delays: Delays from the SEC due to a government shutdown had temporarily slowed down the altcoin ETF ecosystem, which may have impacted the expansion and price rally of XRP despite the launch of other altcoin ETFs.Institutional Adoption: Spot XRP ETFs are performing well, with institutional buying approaching the $1 billion mark. Grayscale's XRP ETF, in particular, launched on November 24.Whale Activity: Whale selling of $4 billion in XRP during November has tilted the supply-demand balance, reinforcing the bearish short-term sentiment.Analyst Outlook: Conflicting technical analyses surround XRP. Some analysts see potential for a run toward the $20 mark, while others have warned of potential price corrections.Market Sentiment: Market sentiment is currently uncertain, with neither extreme fear nor euphoria dominating. Ripple's Role: Ripple continues to make strategic moves to increase institutional adoption, including its acquisition of Hidden Road earlier in the year. The company holds a prime brokerage license in the US, allowing major financial firms like BlackRock to use the XRP Ledger.
Note: The analysis regarding institutional accumulation and a potential price breakout is based on the opinion of a crypto analyst and is not a guarantee of future performance. Market performance is subject to a variety of factors, including regulatory actions and investor sentiment.
Disclaimers:Info and knowledge sharing.Not a financial advice.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.(DYOR)
#Ripple #Xrp🔥🔥 #XRPGoal #HotTrends #bullish
good
This work was presented to Mr. Musk on X and we requested him to provide guidance on improving the GROK system. We are waiting for news from Mr. Musk and everyone is keeping an eye on it!
#Elon.Musk #Hawk
#Elon.Musk #Hawk
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Red envelope🧧🧧🧧🧧
#特朗普加密新政
Follow Hawk, follow the live broadcast room, and share it with each other. Thank you!💕💕💕💕💕
Follow Hawk, follow the live broadcast room, and share it with each other. Thank you!💕💕💕💕💕
yidea 666
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Satoshi Nakamoto's potential is limitless
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