封狼-实战为王
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🌟公众号：[封狼] 推特@btc 5102 一名野生交易员，每日分享交易逻辑和交易理念，感谢大家喜欢，点赞评论是对我最大支持
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In 2026, I wish everyone joy in their hearts, success in their careers, and all things to be hopeful for.
Ten thousand dollar benefit, given to the Wolf family brothers!
Ten thousand dollar benefit, given to the Wolf family brothers!
The curb at four in the morning is very cold; after a while, the wind cooled me down.
This global market massacre, the utterly bottomless decline, I don't know what to say, I can only blame my own ignorance and incompetence.
In this wave of decline, I met many mentors who all knew that it would drop, all knew it would go down to 75, down to 2000.
I'm begging you, stop educating me, stop giving me lessons, do you take disciples?
You all see it clearly, you all know it's going to drop down.
What about your positions???? Is it bearish but not shorting????
I am trading with real money, I can afford to win and lose, winning or losing is my own business.
The only ones I feel sorry for are my brothers in the Wolf Army who trusted me.
This global market massacre, the utterly bottomless decline, I don't know what to say, I can only blame my own ignorance and incompetence.
In this wave of decline, I met many mentors who all knew that it would drop, all knew it would go down to 75, down to 2000.
I'm begging you, stop educating me, stop giving me lessons, do you take disciples?
You all see it clearly, you all know it's going to drop down.
What about your positions???? Is it bearish but not shorting????
I am trading with real money, I can afford to win and lose, winning or losing is my own business.
The only ones I feel sorry for are my brothers in the Wolf Army who trusted me.
This Ethereum, to be honest, it really doesn't have my hard
Last night I added to my position in Bitcoin, raising the cost to 835, it rushed to 845, didn't fully exit, took a 1000-point reduction on part of it, and today added to my position again
I made a mistake with Ethereum, last night it surged to 2760 to my cost price, I should have just decisively exited half, and then it would have been easier to pull down the cost
I sold too little earlier, and now pulling down the cost feels a bit passive, I also have a bit of emotion, so now the forced liquidation price is 2300, actually, according to the original plan, the forced liquidation price was set at 2100 here
Of course, this is also a reminder to myself, since there is a plan, everything should go according to the plan, not to be influenced by any external factors
To analyze simply, I have been shorting all along, starting from Bitcoin 850 and Ethereum 2800, gradually adding long positions, reducing and increasing positions in between to trade
Countless opportunities have been available, all could have been closed, and made profits, if not closed, what was the reason? I have explained it in detail before, so there's no need to ask me why I held the position
It's the weekend, take a good rest, leave it to time, everything has its own destiny
Last night I added to my position in Bitcoin, raising the cost to 835, it rushed to 845, didn't fully exit, took a 1000-point reduction on part of it, and today added to my position again
I made a mistake with Ethereum, last night it surged to 2760 to my cost price, I should have just decisively exited half, and then it would have been easier to pull down the cost
I sold too little earlier, and now pulling down the cost feels a bit passive, I also have a bit of emotion, so now the forced liquidation price is 2300, actually, according to the original plan, the forced liquidation price was set at 2100 here
Of course, this is also a reminder to myself, since there is a plan, everything should go according to the plan, not to be influenced by any external factors
To analyze simply, I have been shorting all along, starting from Bitcoin 850 and Ethereum 2800, gradually adding long positions, reducing and increasing positions in between to trade
Countless opportunities have been available, all could have been closed, and made profits, if not closed, what was the reason? I have explained it in detail before, so there's no need to ask me why I held the position
It's the weekend, take a good rest, leave it to time, everything has its own destiny
Pull up a little, Bitcoin 832, Ethereum 2765, reduced a portion respectively, continue to pull down a hand, regardless of how the market goes, do not panic, scare yourself, deal with it calmly, learn to save yourself, leave it to time
封狼-实战为王
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This is a planned massacre, affecting the entire global market, including gold, silver, oil, and the stock market, all plummeting without exception, similar to early 25 years ago.
There is no need to panic too much; market fluctuations follow a pattern, and it won't keep falling or rising indefinitely. Time is the best remedy.
What we can do is control risk, survive, and develop cautiously. As long as I haven't exited the game, it doesn't necessarily mean I'm the loser.
Do not mobilize anyone, and there are no motivational quotes. Based on individual circumstances, make reasonable adjustments and choices; the market has both gains and losses from the same source.
There is no need to panic too much; market fluctuations follow a pattern, and it won't keep falling or rising indefinitely. Time is the best remedy.
What we can do is control risk, survive, and develop cautiously. As long as I haven't exited the game, it doesn't necessarily mean I'm the loser.
Do not mobilize anyone, and there are no motivational quotes. Based on individual circumstances, make reasonable adjustments and choices; the market has both gains and losses from the same source.
This is a planned massacre, affecting the entire global market, including gold, silver, oil, and the stock market, all plummeting without exception, similar to early 25 years ago.
There is no need to panic too much; market fluctuations follow a pattern, and it won't keep falling or rising indefinitely. Time is the best remedy.
What we can do is control risk, survive, and develop cautiously. As long as I haven't exited the game, it doesn't necessarily mean I'm the loser.
Do not mobilize anyone, and there are no motivational quotes. Based on individual circumstances, make reasonable adjustments and choices; the market has both gains and losses from the same source.
There is no need to panic too much; market fluctuations follow a pattern, and it won't keep falling or rising indefinitely. Time is the best remedy.
What we can do is control risk, survive, and develop cautiously. As long as I haven't exited the game, it doesn't necessarily mean I'm the loser.
Do not mobilize anyone, and there are no motivational quotes. Based on individual circumstances, make reasonable adjustments and choices; the market has both gains and losses from the same source.
Tonight's live broadcast is probably the most exhausting day of the week, talking non-stop throughout…
Because many people play Ethereum, so I focused on Ethereum.
Looking back at the content, the first wave was to buy at 2800, it rose to 2850, and I told everyone to reduce their positions a bit, moving the stop loss to breakeven, waiting for a chance to break below 2800 again.
Sure enough, the expectation came true. After breaking below 2800 again, I told everyone that 2760 was the last position to buy, as this was also my last position.
As for why I still bought at 2760 after breaking below 2800 again, this was explained clearly in the live broadcast (you can listen to the replay).
Now, with everyone holding long positions at 2760, I have two personal suggestions.
First, if you are trading intraday short-term, set a breakeven stop loss at 2780, and you can look to safely take profit near 2850.
Second, if you want to follow me for a long-term trade this time, you can hold on, but it requires some time and carries certain risks (of course, returns are proportional to risks).
For this wave of Ethereum, if the expected projection holds, on the 4-hour level, forming a W double bottom, then it is far more than the price of 3000.
Everything is based on expectations and inferences, so make sure to control risks and leave it to time for verification.
Tonight's live broadcast will have 1000 viewers, and there will be no hindsight.
Maybe I will be wrong this time, after all, I am not qualified in terms of technology, but I strive to make every trade well, and I owe it to all the brothers in the live broadcast room.
For now, before the results come out, everything is unknown.
Because many people play Ethereum, so I focused on Ethereum.
Looking back at the content, the first wave was to buy at 2800, it rose to 2850, and I told everyone to reduce their positions a bit, moving the stop loss to breakeven, waiting for a chance to break below 2800 again.
Sure enough, the expectation came true. After breaking below 2800 again, I told everyone that 2760 was the last position to buy, as this was also my last position.
As for why I still bought at 2760 after breaking below 2800 again, this was explained clearly in the live broadcast (you can listen to the replay).
Now, with everyone holding long positions at 2760, I have two personal suggestions.
First, if you are trading intraday short-term, set a breakeven stop loss at 2780, and you can look to safely take profit near 2850.
Second, if you want to follow me for a long-term trade this time, you can hold on, but it requires some time and carries certain risks (of course, returns are proportional to risks).
For this wave of Ethereum, if the expected projection holds, on the 4-hour level, forming a W double bottom, then it is far more than the price of 3000.
Everything is based on expectations and inferences, so make sure to control risks and leave it to time for verification.
Tonight's live broadcast will have 1000 viewers, and there will be no hindsight.
Maybe I will be wrong this time, after all, I am not qualified in terms of technology, but I strive to make every trade well, and I owe it to all the brothers in the live broadcast room.
For now, before the results come out, everything is unknown.
Last night I posted an analysis, very detailed, so if you haven't checked it, remember to look back. The key point is about Bitcoin bulls, a fleeting story.
Now, let's pray that 870 can hold; if it can't, then we'll see a major level at 850.
Tonight, I'll briefly talk about Ethereum.
Ethereum at the 3050 position is like a gate; after multiple attempts to break through, if it fails, it must retreat downwards and gather strength for a second offensive.
From the 4-hour level, 2900 has some support, as it has withstood several pullbacks, but it is not strong support; strong support must be at the 2800 mark.
This is because it is the support level on the weekly chart. You can open the weekly chart to see that regardless of whether it fell to 2600 or 2700 before, it could always bounce back to the 2800 position, so 2800 is the final card for Ethereum.
For Ethereum, a second pullback to 2800 is expected to form a W double bottom shape. Of course, we will leave the validation of this expected W double bottom to time.
If we consider the timing, it would be best if it happens in early February; with this expected W double bottom, I personally have great confidence.
Now, let's pray that 870 can hold; if it can't, then we'll see a major level at 850.
Tonight, I'll briefly talk about Ethereum.
Ethereum at the 3050 position is like a gate; after multiple attempts to break through, if it fails, it must retreat downwards and gather strength for a second offensive.
From the 4-hour level, 2900 has some support, as it has withstood several pullbacks, but it is not strong support; strong support must be at the 2800 mark.
This is because it is the support level on the weekly chart. You can open the weekly chart to see that regardless of whether it fell to 2600 or 2700 before, it could always bounce back to the 2800 position, so 2800 is the final card for Ethereum.
For Ethereum, a second pullback to 2800 is expected to form a W double bottom shape. Of course, we will leave the validation of this expected W double bottom to time.
If we consider the timing, it would be best if it happens in early February; with this expected W double bottom, I personally have great confidence.
Recently, Chuanzi's actions have indeed been quite significant, seizing Venezuela, taking Greenland, and preparing to strike Iran. It seems like reckless operations, but in fact, it's a grand strategy, a competition for resources, leveraging pressure on the Federal Reserve to cause passive interest rate cuts. Later, I will take the time to provide a separate analysis to share with everyone.
In the last three trading days of this week, volatility may increase. Compared to the past, it should be a bit larger, with many narratives, such as US stock earnings reports, the Federal Reserve's policy meetings, crypto legislation, and other external factors that may play a role in amplifying effects.
Returning to the chart, we are currently experiencing a strong rebound at a small scale, transitioning from the previous weak downtrend to a more oscillating trend. The process of Bitcoin falling from 979 to 860 is very smooth, with only a brief pause at 90,000; all other positions are unobstructed. After this drop of 10,000 points, we are currently witnessing a wave of bullish counterattack. So my understanding is that after extreme weakness, there has been an oversold rebound, but it cannot be said that this is a truly strong bullish phase.
Additionally, the daily line has continuously closed below 90,000 for 8 days. If it maintains a continuous close above 90,000, there is still a chance for the bulls; otherwise, at this stage, it is merely a wave of replenishment, a fleeting moment.
Is it possible to short at this stage? I believe it is, but one cannot short blindly. Key resistance positions should be targeted for entry, as a small-scale strong trend is underway, with the fast and slow lines on the hourly chart above the zero axis; this is something to pay attention to.
Previously, the natural rebound high and low after the drop on January 20 in the US market was around 915. Therefore, today we will use this as the key resistance level to short. If 915 breaks and holds in the next couple of days, there is a probability of pushing towards 940 (1074-8060, Fibonacci 0.5 level).
Additionally, the following few pullback points are today's 888, yesterday's 875, and the day before yesterday's 870.
Especially at 870, this is the position after a breakout pullback. If it can be maintained for a while, the probability of a large drop afterwards is quite low. However, if 870 no longer exists, then we will need to test the previous bottom at 850.
On the day Ethereum at 2800 didn't hold, considering the timing was mismatched, but there are still expectations around the Spring Festival, so in early February, after a price pullback, one should gradually build a bullish position. This is just a personal opinion.
In the last three trading days of this week, volatility may increase. Compared to the past, it should be a bit larger, with many narratives, such as US stock earnings reports, the Federal Reserve's policy meetings, crypto legislation, and other external factors that may play a role in amplifying effects.
Returning to the chart, we are currently experiencing a strong rebound at a small scale, transitioning from the previous weak downtrend to a more oscillating trend. The process of Bitcoin falling from 979 to 860 is very smooth, with only a brief pause at 90,000; all other positions are unobstructed. After this drop of 10,000 points, we are currently witnessing a wave of bullish counterattack. So my understanding is that after extreme weakness, there has been an oversold rebound, but it cannot be said that this is a truly strong bullish phase.
Additionally, the daily line has continuously closed below 90,000 for 8 days. If it maintains a continuous close above 90,000, there is still a chance for the bulls; otherwise, at this stage, it is merely a wave of replenishment, a fleeting moment.
Is it possible to short at this stage? I believe it is, but one cannot short blindly. Key resistance positions should be targeted for entry, as a small-scale strong trend is underway, with the fast and slow lines on the hourly chart above the zero axis; this is something to pay attention to.
Previously, the natural rebound high and low after the drop on January 20 in the US market was around 915. Therefore, today we will use this as the key resistance level to short. If 915 breaks and holds in the next couple of days, there is a probability of pushing towards 940 (1074-8060, Fibonacci 0.5 level).
Additionally, the following few pullback points are today's 888, yesterday's 875, and the day before yesterday's 870.
Especially at 870, this is the position after a breakout pullback. If it can be maintained for a while, the probability of a large drop afterwards is quite low. However, if 870 no longer exists, then we will need to test the previous bottom at 850.
On the day Ethereum at 2800 didn't hold, considering the timing was mismatched, but there are still expectations around the Spring Festival, so in early February, after a price pullback, one should gradually build a bullish position. This is just a personal opinion.
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