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Recent Bitcoin Market Insights and Risk Warnings (Binance Square Exclusive)

The Bitcoin market has recently continued its corrective and volatile pattern, with significantly increased fluctuations. According to real-time data from Binance, as of midday on December 19th, the BTC price was consolidating in a narrow range between $85,000 and $87,000, a pullback of over 30% from its October all-time high ($126,000). In the past 24 hours, it attempted to break through the $90,000 mark but failed, subsequently experiencing a rapid decline, with a maximum drop exceeding 2%. Market sentiment is cautious, with intense battles between bulls and bears.

The current market is influenced by a combination of factors. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate cut in December lowered expectations for rate cuts next year, causing the dollar index to surge and tightening liquidity, thus suppressing the valuation of crypto assets. The Bank of Japan's largest rate hike in 30 years led to capital outflows, further draining market liquidity. From a funding perspective, high leverage risks have been concentrated, with over $520 million in long positions being liquidated in the past 24 hours, and Bitcoin spot ETFs experiencing continuous net outflows, indicating a more conservative institutional stance. On the regulatory front, both domestic and international standards have been strengthened. Domestically, virtual currency-related businesses are explicitly classified as illegal financial activities, while international regulatory policy uncertainty has exacerbated market volatility.

From a technical perspective, the $85,000 range has formed a key short-term support level, repeatedly tested and rebounded, indicating some buying support at this price level. If the daily closing price effectively breaks below this range, it will likely trigger a new round of downward movement, targeting the $78,000-$80,000 range. Resistance for the rebound is concentrated in the $88,000-$90,000 range, requiring a significant increase in trading volume for a valid breakout; otherwise, upward potential will be limited. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, with the direction depending on key signals such as US inflation data and policy guidance from major central banks.

Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency prices fluctuate wildly, and trading involves high risks (including but not limited to market manipulation, insufficient liquidity, and policy changes). Binance Global has repeatedly reminded users to make trading decisions based on thorough research rather than speculation, to reasonably assess their own risk tolerance, and to be wary of the risk of forced liquidation from high-leverage trading. This article is only an objective analysis of market conditions and does not constitute any trading advice. For further market data, please refer to the "Live Data" section on Binance Square: $BTC

December 19th midday important updates overview

7:00-12:00 Keywords: Japan interest rate hike, CFTC, Trump
1. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled;
2. The U.S. Senate approved Mike Selig to serve as the chairman of the U.S. CFTC;
3. Cardano founder criticizes Trump's cryptocurrency policy for harming the industry's prospects;
4. A new proposal from Aptos suggests introducing quantum-resistant signatures as an optional account signature type;
5. Hong Kong Financial Secretary: studying the legal regulatory framework for issuing and trading tokenized bonds;
6. Trump: will launch the most aggressive housing reform plan and the largest tax cut results in history next year;
7. Coinbase CEO: predictive markets are a substitute for traditional media, signaling stronger than traditional polls.
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CZ's rival whale faces liquidation risk again, with unrealized losses exceeding 40 million USD.

According to analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a large trader who shorted after CZ revealed his ASTER holdings is currently facing liquidation risk. This trader holds a long position in cryptocurrency assets worth 237 million USD, including 57,100 ETH (161 million USD), 38.82 million XRP (69.98 million USD), and 230,000 HYPE (5.19 million USD), with a total unrealized loss of 40.3 million USD.
The liquidation price for his ETH long position is 2,714 USD, which is only about 100 USD different from the current market price of around 2,800 USD. Previously, this trader's ETH long position was only 28 USD away from the liquidation price of 2,595 USD when the price dropped to 2,623 USD, but was temporarily saved by a market rebound.

December 19 overnight important developments overview

21:00-7:00 Keywords: CPI, Fuse Energy, David Sacks, interest rate cut
1. Hassett: The Federal Reserve still has significant room for interest rate cuts;
2. US November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than market expectations;
3. US core CPI unexpectedly eased to the lowest level since 2021;
4. US interest rate futures market pricing shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 62 basis points next year;
5. Trump: In talks with three or four candidates for Federal Reserve chairman, Waller and Bowman are great;
6. Solana on-chain DePIN project Fuse Energy completed $70 million Series B financing;
7. David Sacks: We are "closer than ever" to legislating the cryptocurrency market structure.

At local time on December 18, the White House of the United States issued a statement saying that Trump signed an executive order that established a vision for a "America First" space policy to ensure that the United States "leads the world" in space exploration, security, and commerce. The order requires Americans to return to the Moon by 2028 and to establish initial facilities for a permanent lunar outpost before 2030, directing the deployment of nuclear reactors on the Moon and in orbit. $BTC
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U.S. Core CPI Unexpectedly Slows to Lowest Level Since 2021

According to a report affected by the government shutdown, the underlying inflation rate in the U.S. rose year-on-year in November, but the growth rate is the lowest since early 2021. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% in November. This is down from a year-on-year increase of 3% two months ago. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in November. Due to the government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to collect most of the price data for October, which limited the agency's ability to determine the broader inflation indicators for November and the month-on-month changes in many key categories. $BTC

Important developments on the evening of December 18

12:00-21:00 Keywords: Hassett, Bank of England, Binance Wallet, BlackRock
1. Whales purchased 3,650 ETH and opened a 20x leveraged short position
2. Hassett: It is appropriate to lower interest rates at this time
3. Trump Media Technology Group will merge with TAE Technology in an all-stock transaction
4. The Bank of England has lowered interest rates to the lowest level in nearly three years
5. The Binance Wallet now supports the native stablecoin United Stables (U) on the BNB Chain
6. Citigroup increases bets on Fed rate cuts: expects the Fed to cut rates three times next year
7. BlackRock transferred approximately 6,952 ETH to Coinbase Prime, worth nearly $20 million

TON: xStocks has launched on TON, allowing users to trade tokenized US stocks directly within the wallet.
According to the TON Foundation, xStocks has launched on TON, enabling users to trade tokenized US stocks in wallets such as TON Wallet, Tonkeeper, and MyTONWallet.
This feature supports on-chain trading of stocks from hundreds of major companies, such as Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft, without the need for a separate trading application, brokerage account, or geographical restrictions. The tokenization framework is supported by Backed Finance, complies with full regulatory requirements, and has received institutional verification from Kraken.

“BTCOG Insider Whale” increases SOL long positions, total holdings exceed 700 million USD
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), after the flash crash on 1011, the “BTCOG Insider Whale” increased its long position by 51,612.85 SOL, with the latest holdings at 301,612.8 SOL, valued at 37.36 million USD, average opening price at 135.2 USD, and unrealized loss of 3.42 million USD. After the increase, its total position officially exceeds 700 million USD.
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According to CryptoQuant data, the Ethereum exchange holdings have fallen to the lowest level since 2016, indicating that traders' cautious sentiment has increased, and the short-term selling pressure in the market has eased.

Silver becomes the world's fourth largest asset with a market value surpassing Google
According to Golden Finance, on Wednesday, the silver price first broke through $66/ounce, with an annual increase of nearly 130%. With a new round of soaring market driving its price up more than 4% on that day, the total market value of silver has now reached $3.750 trillion, surpassing AI giant Google, and ranking as the fourth largest asset globally, only behind gold, NVIDIA, and Apple.

December 18 Overnight Key Developments Overview
21:00-7:00 Keywords: Coinbase, Moon Pursuit Capital, ETHGAS, Point72
1. ETHGAS completed a $12 million seed round financing;
2. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is 75.6%;
3. Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Stablecoins will enhance demand for the US dollar;
4. Moon Pursuit Capital launched a $100 million crypto fund;
5. Hedge fund Point72 has acquired 390,666 shares of Strategy (MSTR) stock;
6. Coinbase launched stock trading, prediction market, and other services, aiming to become a "universal exchange";
7. Federal Reserve Governor Waller: The Federal Reserve's interest rate level is 50 to 100 basis points above the neutral rate.

dYdX announces partnership with BONK to launch a perpetual trading gateway for the Solana community

The decentralized derivatives protocol dYdX announced that BONK, a leading meme coin in the Solana ecosystem, has become an official integration partner of dYdX. On December 17, BONK launched a BONK-branded web and Telegram frontend, enabling BONK and the broader Solana community users to seamlessly access perpetual contract trading supported by dYdX through this gateway.

"Maji" encountered a market downturn after opening a 40x leveraged BTC long position. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, "Maji" deposited 149904 USDC into Hyperliquid and then opened a 40x leveraged BTC long position and a 10x leveraged HYPE long position. However, after a brief rise, the crypto market fell again. Currently, Maji's overall position has shifted from profit to loss, with cumulative losses exceeding 23000000 dollars, having previously reached a short-term floating profit of about 300000 dollars.

December 17 evening important dynamics overview

12:00-21:00 Keywords: ETHGAS, Binance.US, Hut 8, Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission
1. CZ: Has not yet spoken with President Trump
2. ETHGAS completes $12 million seed round financing
3. Bloomberg: Binance is considering restarting Binance.US
4. The UK plans to include cryptocurrencies in the regulatory category of financial products starting in 2027
5. Hut 8 signs a 15-year data center lease agreement worth $7 billion
6. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund supports all management proposals from Metaplanet at the shareholders' meeting
7. Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission releases quarterly report: Q3 virtual asset spot ETF total market value reaches $920 million, up 217%
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