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This is a very classic and important technical analysis pattern. In simple terms, "relatively low position, rapid increase and slow decline" usually indicates that the market is transitioning from a bear-dominated phase to an early stage of a bull-dominated phase, serving as a signal that major funds (also known as smart money) are actively positioning and accumulating shares.
Now let's break down the meaning of this process, market psychology, and potential subsequent developments in detail:
Meaning breakdown
1. Relatively low position:
· Prices have undergone a significant decline and are at a relatively low level compared to recent times or over a period.
· Market sentiment is generally pessimistic, with most retail investors either trapped and unwilling to cut losses or already panicking and exiting the market, leading to typically low trading volumes. "Can't drop any further" is a characteristic of this position.

For the cryptocurrency options expiring on December 26, the market's focus is mainly on several key strike prices. This is both where significant funds are 'betting' and will also influence spot prices through market makers' hedging activities.

Below is an overview of the main strike price distribution for bullish options (Call) on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH):

Bitcoin (BTC)

· Key bullish options strike price
· 100,000 USD
· 106,000, 112,000, 118,000 USD
· 95,000 USD (maximum pain point)
· Explanation
· 100,000 USD is the position with the most concentrated holdings, where institutions have built positions worth approximately $1.7 billion. This is an important psychological and technical juncture.

Regarding whether Bitcoin will find a bottom soon, there is significant divergence in current market opinions, with analysts differing on the stage of the market and key support levels.
1. Two main viewpoints in the market
The bearish viewpoint believes the market has not yet bottomed, for the following reasons:
· The market lacks panic sentiment: Santiment's founder points out that crypto traders are exhibiting 'insufficient panic sentiment' on social media, with no signs of emotional capitulation. The market may need to pull back to around $75,000 before finding a true bottom.
· Demand weakening and behavioral shifts: CryptoQuant analysts warn that the 'crypto winter' may be starting, as demand growth has slowed. Key changes include: the US spot Bitcoin ETF turning net sellers in Q4 2025; activity in addresses holding 100-1000 BTC is below trend levels.

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#Crypto##Blockchain# ​​​

Applying the philosophical thought of 'butchering the cow' to the cryptocurrency investment market is an extremely sophisticated strategy. It emphasizes not brute force confrontation, but insight into the essence, conforming to the structure, and handling it with ease. We can 'deconstruct' this market from three levels:
First level: Deconstructing the 'cow' of the market - understanding the overall picture and structure (not seeing the whole cow)
When the butcher first saw the cow, it was the 'whole cow'; three years later, he 'never saw the whole cow', only its texture, bones, and joints. Corresponding to the cryptocurrency market:
1. Decompose the elements of the market:
· Skeleton (Underlying Technology): The consensus mechanisms of blockchain (PoW, PoS, etc.), scalability, security, and interoperability. This is the 'skeleton' that supports value. Not understanding the technical logic is akin to not understanding the physiological structure of a cow.

"The turkey is carefully raised for the first 999 days, only to learn its fate on Thanksgiving." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan)

The once turkey did not know the purpose of its breeding. Today's market does not realize it is in a structural financial game.

1. Segway and Chinese Manufacturing: The Reality and Illusion of the Industry

The founder of the No. 7 electric vehicle mentioned in an interview that Segway's balance bike was initially priced at 80,000 RMB, while they could achieve similar functionality for just 2,000 RMB—thanks to the 'atomic-level' supply chain integration capabilities in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai region.

Charlie Munger, as a representative of value investment philosophy, centers his thoughts on rationality, patience, discipline, and interdisciplinary thinking. Although he himself holds a critical view of digital currencies (having referred to Bitcoin as 'rat poison'), his thought framework can still be distilled and cautiously applied to investment analysis in the realm of digital currencies. Below is a systematic analysis of how to apply Munger's thoughts to digital currency investment:
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I. Adaptive Adjustment of Core Principles
1. Rationality and Anti-Fragility
· Munger's Logic: Investment should be based on rational analysis, avoiding emotional drives.