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Happy weekend!
#Federal Reserve rate cut#$BTC、$ETH、$BNB
The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond has surpassed 4.86%, just hitting a new high in nearly three months.
The painful reality is: the Federal Reserve just cut rates, yet long-term bond yields have risen. This move is a bit awkward—like trying hard to lose weight, but ending up gaining instead.
The underlying logic isn't that complicated. With the fiscal deficit remaining high, market inflation expectations rising, and an imbalance in the bond supply-demand relationship, these three factors combined lead to a surge in long-term bond yields. The bond market's attitude is clear: I have my own rhythm and won't follow your rate cut script.
For the crypto world, it's common for risk assets to be under pressure in this environment. Rising interest rates mean the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets is higher, and crypto assets, as "non-yielding" risk categories, inevitably feel some pressure. Next, we need to closely watch the trends in U.S. Treasury bonds.

The babies are bragging 🐮!

📊 Major structural turning point in US stock market capital flows:
1️⃣ Retail investors turning to retreat
Retail investors, who have been buying the dip for 12 consecutive weeks, suddenly reversed and sold off significantly before and after Black Friday.
The last 1 to 4 weeks have seen net selling, and the actions are very decisive — typical holiday season cash demand + panic over short-term macro uncertainty.
2️⃣ Hedge funds remain neutral
For several weeks, there has been slight reduction in positions, clearly waiting for the December FOMC to give guidance on the interest rate path.
They are hesitant to take a directional bet and unwilling to go short early, purely observing.
3️⃣ The only ones willing to jump in are institutions
Institutional investors have been consistently and steadily buying stocks and ETFs.
They completely view this pullback as a “2025–2026 accumulation window,” and short-term fluctuations have not affected their pace.
🔮 The next direction of the market = depends on a pricing event:
👉 The dot plot’s guidance on the 2026 interest rate path.
This will directly determine:
Whether institutions will continue to buy
Whether hedge funds will take directional bets
When retail investors will come back to buy the dip
💡 The most critical point:
‍$BTC still deeply tied to tech stocks in the US.
When tech stocks rise, #BTC# rises; when tech stocks falter, BTC falters too.

👏👏👏

#Cryptocurrency Market Observation#📈 “Investment always requires not just wisdom, but also patience.”
Market sentiment is quietly changing. Will you choose to continue observing, or will you start to layout for the next cycle?
In the past two months, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a sustained “cooling period” of continuous correction. This wave of volatility, which began with the “1011” crash, is influenced by multiple factors: industry liquidity tightening, four-year cycle volatility nodes, expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan, and geopolitical policy uncertainties, all contributing to this round of adjustment lasting 60 days.
However, markets often give birth to opportunities in pessimism. Currently, most short-term negative factors have gradually been digested by the market, and new positive signals are emerging:
✅ Macroeconomic level: Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising again, and the liquidity environment is expected to gradually improve.
✅ Policy level: The regulatory framework for cryptocurrency assets is becoming clearer, and the long-term compliance process is accelerating.
✅ Cycle dimension: The four-year market cycle is still widely recognized, and the bottom range may be the time to layout.
Investment is never just a technical contest, but also a training of mindset. Maintaining clarity amidst volatility and preserving patience during downturns is often the key to long-term success.
The market is never short of smart people, but those who ultimately reap the rewards are often the “long-termists” who have both foresight and can remain calm.
Let’s encourage each fellow traveler who is deeply cultivating in the bear market and steadfast amidst the fluctuations.
(Investment carries risks, opinions are for reference only, please make rational decisions)
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Trading profit or loss can be seen in many aspects, and trading is ultimately a projection of one's character. Here are a few typical examples.
Those who believe everything others say without their own thoughts are the most basic type of retail investor, constantly buying and losing, ultimately ending up in a mess with cryptocurrency, and finally giving up with a remark that the game is too hard to play;
Those who are 100% certain about everything, leaving no room for doubt, and even venting their anger when encountering opposing viewpoints, will eventually be trapped by a particular asset, and when trapped, they will still say that the market is wrong, then continue to repeat this next time. Such individuals are also the favorites of the market manipulators;
People with stubborn personalities who never turn back after hitting a wall, whose way of solving problems is always one lie after another, ultimately trapping themselves tightly. This type is a typical case of continuously averaging down once underwater, and getting such people to "stop loss" is truly harder than killing them.
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