The market is in an extremely sensitive phase as expectations for the first interest rate cut in December are rising. Therefore, the CPI data for November will play a guiding role in the major trends for both stocks and crypto. $BTC
INVESTOR SENTIMENT REMAINS POSITIVE: EXCITEMENT IS INCREASING
+ 44.3% of individual investors express an optimistic outlook on the stock market in the next 6 months, according to the latest survey by AAII, the highest level since October 8.
+ The peak over the past 12 months is 45.9%. In the past 3 weeks, this rate has increased by 12.7 points.
+ During the same period, the proportion of pessimistic investors has decreased by 18.3 points, down to 30.8%, the lowest since January 23.
=> The gap between optimistic and pessimistic views has widened to 13.5 points, the second highest this year. Everyone wants to participate in this market.
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TIN NÓNG: TỔNG THỐNG TRUMP ĐƯỢC HỎI VỀ VIỆC CHỦ TỊCH MỚI CỦA FED CÓ CẦN "GIẢM LÃI SUẤT NGAY LẬP TỨC"
+ Khi được hỏi liệu Chủ tịch mới của Fed có được kỳ vọng sẽ giảm lãi suất ngay lập tức, Tổng thống Trump trả lời: "Có."
=> Đây là dấu hiệu cho thấy Trump tiếp tục thúc đẩy chính sách tài chính dễ dàng hơn trong bối cảnh nền kinh tế.
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+ Jeremy Siegel, Chief Economist of WisdomTree, said: “I think we will hear about a hawkish rate cut of 25 basis points and there is a disagreement in the Fed.”
=> This could be an important signal for tightening the Fed's monetary policy, even with a rate cut.
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HOT NEWS: OCTOBER JOLTS DATA ON JOB OPENINGS RISES TO 7,670,000
Job openings according to the October JOLTS data reached 7,670,000, far exceeding expectations of 7,117,000.
=> This shows that the U.S. labor market remains strong and has the potential to support the economy in the near future.
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HOT NEWS: MICHAEL SAYLOR REVEALS THAT SOME LARGE AMERICAN BANKS ARE ISSUING CREDIT SECURED BY BITCOIN
+ Michael Saylor stated that many large banks in the US are currently issuing credit backed by Bitcoin, including:
Citi JPMorgan Wells Fargo BNY Mellon Charles Schwab Bank of America
=> This is a significant step in recognizing Bitcoin as a legitimate financial asset within the traditional banking system.
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+ Silver prices have reached an all-time high of $60, up 106% since the beginning of the year.
=> This is a strong signal indicating that silver is attracting significant attention and investment this year.
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HOT NEWS: $157,000,000 CRYPTO SHORTS HAVE BEEN LIQUIDATED IN THE LAST 60 MINUTES
+ $157 million USD worth of crypto short orders have been liquidated in the last 60 minutes, causing the market to experience significant volatility.
=> This is a signal indicating that there may be a major shift in the crypto market trend.
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JACK MALLERS' TWENTY ONE OFFICIALLY JOINING THE NYSE
Twenty One Capital, a company focused on Bitcoin, has officially gone public on the NYSE under the stock code $XXI after merging with Cantor Equity Partners.
This is the first Bitcoin-native company to be publicly listed, holding 43,514 BTC (~4 billion USD), making it the third largest Bitcoin holder among public companies.
The company's plan is to introduce the #Bitcoin Per Share index.
=> Now, investors can access the public shares of a company directly related to Bitcoin, creating investment opportunities in "the strongest currency in the world."
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BREAKING: TRUMP PROMISES TO ELIMINATE INCOME TAX, REPLACE WITH IMPORT TAX
+ Trump promises to eliminate income tax and replace it with an import tax, but the numbers show this is unfeasible: Income tax 2025: 2.66 trillion USD Current import tax: 195 billion USD
+ Even with a 60% tax on China, it would only reach a maximum of 400 billion USD, falling short by 6-14 times.
+ Experts and CBO say this is a "fantasy" and the calculations are impossible.
+ The federal court has ruled his authority to impose taxes as unconstitutional, and SCOTUS will soon make a decision.
=> This plan is not a realistic financial solution, but merely a campaign dream.
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KHI FED CUTS INTEREST RATES WHEN THE STOCK MARKET IS AT ITS HIGHEST, HISTORY SHOWS S&P 500 INCREASES IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
+ When the Fed cuts interest rates by around 2% from the stock market's all-time high, the S&P 500 has recorded an increase in the next 12 months 20 out of 20 times (100% success rate).
+ This indicates that a rate cut from the Fed in the context of a high market may be a positive sign for the subsequent growth of stock indices.
=> If history continues to repeat itself, we can expect a strong recovery of the S&P 500 after the Fed's interest rate cut decision.
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+ The risk premium for US stocks is currently negative, meaning that when adjusted for risk, stocks are not providing actual returns for investors.
+ This indicates that, on a risk-adjusted basis, stocks are no longer as attractive as before, and investors may need to seek other assets to optimize returns.
=> This is a sign of a market full of risk, where investors may face a shortage of profits from stocks in the near future.
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PUT/CALL RATIO DROPS TO 0.70 ON FRIDAY – LOWEST LEVEL IN 4 YEARS
+ The Put/Call ratio has decreased to 0.70 last Friday, reaching the lowest level in the past 4 years.
+ This is a sign that investors are overlooking risk and betting on growth in the near future, with strong confidence in the market.
=》 This situation may indicate that the market is preparing for a strong bullish run, as investor skepticism is at its lowest.
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EU IS CONSIDERING "Nuclear Option" WITH THE SALE OF US BONDS IF UKRAINE AGREEMENT COLLAPSES
+ Europe is being reported to be considering the use of "nuclear option"; dumping US government bonds if the Ukraine agreement collapses.
+ This would be a strong move, potentially causing significant volatility in global financial markets and changing the financial relationship between the US and Europe.
=> If this happens, investors need to prepare for potential instability in major financial markets.
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Ed Yardeni WARNING: THE MAG 7 PRICE INCREASE HAS ENDED 🚨🚨🚨
+ Ed Yardeni warns that the price increase of Mag 7 (including major stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon,…) has ended, and investors may face a correction.
+ This could be a sign that the market is entering a period of volatility, with major stocks no longer continuing their strong upward trend.
=> If this trend continues, investors may have to prepare for a pullback in major stocks in the near future.
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