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The market is in an extremely sensitive phase as expectations for the first interest rate cut in December are rising. Therefore, the CPI data for November will play a guiding role in the major trends for both stocks and crypto. $BTC
Hedge funds are ramping up bets against the yen, as leveraged funds increased their net short positions by 35,624 contracts in the week ending January 13. This is the largest increase since May 2015.
After 5 weeks of relative quiet, this is the first time bearish positions have surged back, bringing total net shorts up to -100,000 contracts, the most pessimistic level since Q1 2024.
The main reason stems from expectations that Sanae Takaichi may win early elections and pursue stronger fiscal stimulus, causing Japan's budget deficit to continue to widen.
Meanwhile, the yen is trading around 158 against the USD, near its lowest point since July 2024, and is approaching the 160 mark, a threshold at which the Japanese Ministry of Finance previously intervened urgently to protect the exchange rate.
Essentially, this is a showdown between speculative capital and Japanese authorities. When hedge funds tilt to one side, the risk of sharp volatility increases, and any intervention could create a rapid reversal, impacting stocks, bonds, and global crypto.
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THE WHITE HOUSE ISSUES EXECUTIVE ORDER TO BLOCK WALL STREET FROM OUTBIDDING HOME BUYERS
The White House has just announced a new executive order aimed at preventing Wall Street from directly competing with everyday home buyers. The focus is on limiting large funds from acquiring homes on an industrial scale.
This policy directly targets driving home prices beyond the reach of the middle class, as financial institutions use the advantage of cheap capital to buy up homes first and rent them back.
In essence, this is a populist but strategic move, shifting priorities from financial assets to the real living needs of Main Street.
If implemented strongly, the real estate market could cool down, speculative capital could decrease, and risk appetite in both stocks and crypto will have to be reassessed in a more cautious direction.
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A SCENARIO NEVER BEFORE SEEN IN AMERICAN LAND HISTORY
If Donald Trump succeeds in taking control of Greenland and Venezuela, the U.S. could hold about 1.2 MILLION square miles of territory: far surpassing any expansion efforts since the Louisiana Purchase in this country's history.
Greenland is self-governing under Denmark and this vast territory is primarily covered by ice; Trump calls this a national security priority and has not ruled out the option of using military force or coercive tariffs to achieve the goal.
In Venezuela, after a military campaign that led to the arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration declared it would "run" the country and control oil revenue, although both the U.S. and the interim Venezuelan government deny having full control over this nation.
In summary, this is no longer a typical diplomatic story but a large-scale geopolitical struggle, with strong reactions from NATO and the EU, raising questions about the changing world order, affecting security, trade, and the balance of global power.
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Donald Trump confirms he will go to Davos and believes this trip will be very successful, emphasizing that the United States is attracting more than 18 trillion USD in capital, an unprecedented level in history.
He stated that prices are significantly decreasing, especially gas prices around 1.99 USD in many places, and asserted that no one has ever witnessed an economic picture like the current one.
Trump called this an interesting and unpredictable trip, but asserted that the U.S. is being very well represented on the international stage at the World Economic Forum.
From a market perspective, this message aims to strengthen economic confidence and capital strength, but also sets high expectations for policy. As expectations rise rapidly, risk assets and crypto usually react more strongly to any signals from Davos.
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TRUMP ANNOUNCES DISTRIBUTION OF 2,000 USD FROM TARIFFS WITHOUT NEEDING CONGRESS
Donald Trump stated that he will distribute checks of 2,000 USD from tariff revenue to the middle class, emphasizing that this can be done without the need for Congress.
This amount is referred to as a tariff dividend, accompanied by income restrictions, supporting the public while reducing debt burdens. The message was delivered just before the mid-term elections.
This is a very strong populist fiscal move, leveraging tariffs to stimulate direct demand. If implemented, the market will have to re-evaluate short-term inflation, consumer spending, and volatility in risk assets, while crypto may benefit from new cash flows and expectations of indirect financial easing.
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Billionaire Ray Dalio has just declared that the current currency order is collapsing, while emphasizing that fiat money is no longer the core asset of central banks.
This statement reflects the reality that central banks are gradually losing faith in fiat, amid rapidly increasing public debt, prolonged inflation, and monetary policy increasingly influenced by politics.
As the old foundation shakes, Bitcoin emerges as a decentralized alternative, not subject to further printing and not dependent on any country. This is no longer a speculative story, but a structural shift in the global financial system.
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At the World Economic Forum, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick asserted that globalization has failed with the West and the United States. According to him, this is a misguided policy that has lasted for decades.
The Trump administration declared that the U.S. will no longer continue to export jobs or shift the future overseas. The new focus is on domestic production and protecting American labor interests.
This message marks a reversal in global economic strategy, where protectionism is making a strong comeback. With the financial and crypto markets, this means more fragmented supply chains, higher structural inflation, and a growing demand for decentralized assets.
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a warning to Europe that the worst scenario is escalating confrontation with the US. The message was delivered amid rising tensions surrounding Greenland.
He reiterated his statement on April 2, a date referred to by President Donald Trump as Liberation Day. This is seen as the starting point for a strategy to exert economic and tariff pressure.
Regarding the market, this warning reinforces the risks of transatlantic policy confrontation. When the US signals a tough stance, global capital typically shifts to defensive positions, supporting gold and USD while stocks and crypto experience greater volatility.
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GOLD BREAKS HISTORICAL PEAKS OF CHAOTIC CASH FLOW ACTIVATION
Gold futures prices have for the first time exceeded the level of 4,800 USD per ounce, setting an unprecedented high in the history of financial markets. This surge reflects geopolitical concerns, trade wars, and widening policy risks. As uncertainty rises, cash flow immediately seeks safe-haven assets.
At the current pace, the 5,000 USD mark could appear as early as this week, indicating that defensive sentiment is completely overshadowing risk appetite.
Notably, when gold rises in an accelerating manner, global liquidity tends to contract. This is a period where cash and safe assets rise in prominence, while stocks and crypto face short-term adjustment pressures before establishing a new baseline.
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European Parliament President Roberta Metsola affirmed that the EU stands absolutely united with Denmark and Greenland against pressure from the United States. The message was made very clear and unequivocal.
The EU emphasizes that they will always protect their way of doing things and their values, while also declaring no apologies for that stance. This is a direct warning about sovereignty and geopolitical order.
In essence, Greenland is not just territory but a strategic asset in terms of geopolitics, energy, and Arctic security. This tension indicates that global power competition is shifting to new hotspots, where long-term interests far outweigh short-term economic gains.
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Donald Trump stated that if France does not participate in the Board of Peace, the U.S. will impose a 200% tax on French wine and champagne. This statement was made on Fox with a clearly pressure-inducing tone.
Trump believes the current French leadership is about to leave office, so they have few options. According to him, when feeling treated hostilely, tariffs are the most effective retaliatory tool.
This continues to be how Trump uses tariffs as a geopolitical lever, not only for trade but also for political coercion. In the financial markets, such statements always increase macro instability and inflation risks, especially with sensitive assets like stocks and crypto.
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BREAKING: MACRON SENDS DIRECT MESSAGE TO TRUMP ABOUT GREENLAND
Donald Trump has just posted a message from Emmanuel Macron, in which Macron said he does not understand the U.S. actions regarding Greenland and called for both sides to work together to build greater things.
Shortly after, Macron proposed a meeting in Switzerland with the participation of Ukraine, Denmark, Syria, and Russia. This is an effort to bring geopolitical tensions back to the multilateral negotiation table.
This development shows that Europe is proactively de-escalating conflicts through diplomacy, while Trump continues to use political and economic pressure to gain an advantage. In financial markets, such meetings could become a major catalyst for macro volatility, directly affecting flows, commodities, and crypto.
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BREAKING: US STOCKS PLUNGE DUE TO FEARS OF TRADE WAR
US stock futures have extended their decline and hit a new session low as concerns over a trade war resurface strongly.
The Nasdaq 100 is currently down -1.6%, reflecting significant selling pressure on the tech and growth sectors. Money is flowing out of high-risk assets.
The Dow Jones is also nearing a loss of -700 points on the day, indicating a widespread defensive sentiment across the market.
Essentially, this is a typical reaction when policy and tariff uncertainties increase. In this context, money often stands on the sidelines, liquidity tightens, and crypto is also likely to experience short-term volatility according to global risk appetite.
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BREAKING: TRUMP CALLS NATO TO OPEN GREENLAND NEGOTIATIONS
Donald Trump stated that he just had a very positive phone call with NATO Secretary General regarding the issue of Greenland. Both sides agreed on an approach through dialogue.
Trump confirmed his agreement to participate in a meeting in Switzerland with the presence of many stakeholders, indicating that tensions are being brought to the table for multilateral negotiations.
At the same time, Trump is preparing to take step #8 in the tariff strategy, with the timing calculated very carefully. This is a signal that taxes remain a key political and economic lever.
Regarding the market, the combination of soft diplomacy and tax pressure often creates short-term volatility but paves the way for a scenario of diverging cash flows. As policy uncertainty increases, investors will prioritize defense, while crypto continues to react strongly according to global risk appetite.
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CEO BlackRock Larry Fink stated at the World Economic Forum that the main goal of WEF is to expand the range of voices and ideas that the public has access to.
According to him, WEF is seeking to understand more deeply and connect more directly with the people, rather than just engaging in dialogue within the realms of government and financial elites as before.
Fink candidly stated that the long-term goal is to persuade the public to accept a more global governance model, while reducing the role of national sovereignty in an increasingly interconnected world.
Conclusion: This statement indicates that WEF is not just an economic forum, but also a place to shape policy thinking and the future global governance order. This is also why WEF is increasingly becoming a focal point for debate and division in global public opinion.
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WEF ACKNOWLEDGES DAVOS DOES NOT REACT BUT COORDINATES THE GAME
Chairman of the World Economic Forum Børge Brende compares global governance to a jazz band, while Davos is where the conditions for progress are orchestrated, not just chasing current events.
The message shows that Davos focuses on shaping the context and priorities, deciding which issues receive attention and which are overlooked. That is soft power at the global level.
WEF states that dialogue is necessary, but boundaries are drawn. When viewpoints go against the common direction, the label misinformation quickly appears.
Conclusion: This frank statement clarifies the role of Davos. Not only discussing, but coordinating thinking and the agenda. The market and policies are therefore increasingly influenced by behind-the-scenes decisions.
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Donald Trump has approved a law imposing a 500% tax on the European Union and countries purchasing oil from Russia. This is an unprecedented high punitive tax.
This move aims to tighten the cash flow of Russian energy while forcing partners to choose sides in the oil and gas supply chain. The impact on energy prices, inflation, and global trade is significant.
With extreme tax levels, the risk of retaliation and market fragmentation has increased sharply. Businesses and markets will need to immediately reassess energy supply and trade costs.
Conclusion: This is not just a tariff. This is a geopolitical blow to energy that could distort trade flows and ignite market volatility in the near future.
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THE SUPREME COURT MAY STRIKE A HEAVY BLOW TO TRUMP'S TARIFFS
Markets currently price in a 71% chance that the U.S. Supreme Court will declare Donald Trump's tariffs illegal today. The probability has increased rapidly in recent hours.
If the ruling is unfavorable, the credibility of trade policy will be shaken, forcing the White House to adjust its strategy. The market may react strongly in USD stocks and bonds.
Conversely, if upheld, the risk of trade retaliation will continue to weigh on growth and inflation.
Conclusion: The Supreme Court of the United States holds the key. Today's ruling could change policy direction and trigger significant volatility across global markets.
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