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✅ What points to the $45 billion-per-month restart

Several recent reports cite that a team at Bank of America (BofA) expects the Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) to commence “reserve-management purchases” of short-term Treasury bills at a pace of $45 billion/month starting January 2026.

The reasoning given: banking-system reserves have reportedly tightened, and repo-market pressure has increased — pushing the Fed to resume buying Treasury bills to inject liquidity and stabilize short-term rates.

This would mark a reversal of the “quantitative tightening” (QT) that the Fed undertook since 2022 — i.e. allowing securities to mature without replacement — and instead shrink (or at least stabilize) the balance-sheet runoff.

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⚠️ Why this is still a projection, not a guarantee

The “$45 billion/month” plan hasn’t been officially announced yet. The forecasts stem from analysts (not from a Fed decision paper).

Other analysts expect a smaller monthly purchase pace — e.g. one estimate expects $15–$20 billion/month rather than $45B.

The actual amount will likely depend on evolving conditions: short-term liquidity demand, money-market rates (repo market), banking-sector reserve levels, and broader economic/interest-rate policy.

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🌎 Why this matters

If the Fed indeed resumes large-scale Treasury purchases, that would re-inject liquidity into the U.S. financial system. This could ease strain in money markets (e.g. repo markets), lower short-term interest rates, and improve funding conditions for banks and lenders.

It would also signal a shift in the Fed’s policy stance: from tightening liquidity (QT) back toward stabilization or mild expansion — which might influence not just rates, but credit conditions, risk-asset demand, and investor sentiment globally.

For global markets (including emerging markets), a more “liquidity-friendly” Fed could reduce systemic funding stress and dampen volatility — though other macro factors will still matter a great deal.

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🧭 What to watch next

The upcoming Fed policy meeting (expected December 9–10, 2025) and the official statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. That will be the clearest signal whether the plan advances.

Money-market benchmarks, repo-market rates, and bank reserve data — if liquidity remains tight, the chances the Fed moves toward the high end (e.g. $45B) increase.

Treasury yield curves (especially short-term), and how markets price in future rate moves — because renewed Fed buying could push yields lower for short-maturity securities.

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📌 My take

The “$45 billion/month starting January” headline is plausible — and quite possible — but for now, it remains a forecast, not an official commitment. Many analysts view it as a technical, liquidity-management move rather than a “QE-style” economic stimulus.