🤔 The $92,098 Question: When is an Exception NOT an Exception?
Fidelity just told us the Bitcoin 4-year cycle might be DEAD, replaced by a lovely, long, and boring Supercycle. That sounds great, but it flies in the face of centuries of market wisdom!
We’re taught the rules of the game:
1. "There are no exceptions in the stock market!" (or crypto market, for that matter). Every bubble bursts. Every boom sees a subsequent bust. The market is the ultimate equalizer, punishing those who think “This time is different.”
The Hilarious Irony: The very act of declaring a "Supercycle" is the ultimate expression of "This Time is Different!" Who are we to defy this classic market trap?
2. "Never argue with the tape." (The tape meaning the price action/trend.)
Right now, the "tape" (whale accumulation, massive ETF flows) is screaming BULL. The trend is the Supercycle. Are we arguing with the market if we stick to the old 4-year cycle prediction? This proverb ironically supports riding Fidelity's wave!
3. "The trend is your friend... until the end."
We should embrace the Supercycle trend (institutional accumulation). But, if history tells us anything, the "end" is always abrupt and brutal. The question isn't if the Supercycle will end, but whether our discipline (our "rules") will survive the euphoria.
My Two Satoshi:
Yes, the institutional influx is unprecedented. But in the market, unprecedented is often the warning sign before the crash. Great investors always have an escape plan.
Rule of Thumb (and Life): The market is the ultimate master, and masters don't tolerate exceptions for long. We can play the Supercycle game, but always keep one eye on the exit door. The moment you believe the rules no longer apply, the market usually sends you a painful reminder! 😉
#MarketWisdom #supercycle #Fidelity $BTC