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Gourav-S
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晚上好，
今晚的氛围：保持稳定——最近的下跌在控制之中，幕后可能正在悄悄转动。
🛌 深呼吸，查看你的图表，休息好——有时最平静的夜晚会导致最恶劣的波动。
保持平和，保持希望——让我们看看明天会带来什么 💚
红包有奖问答
到期时间
2025-12-10 01:44:20
GE
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已过期
免责声明：含第三方意见，不构成财务建议，并且可能包含赞助内容。
详见《条款和条件》。
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A leading J.P. Morgan economist has recently signalled a shift in the firm’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s near-term moves. The bank now expects a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming meeting — reversing its earlier view that policymakers would hold fire until early next year. This change in forecast reflects growing signs that economic conditions may be weakening and that recent comments from influential Fed officials have tilted sentiment toward easing. The implication: if the Fed does cut rates, it could ease borrowing costs, spur risk-asset demand, and potentially inject fresh liquidity into markets — a welcome boost for investors wary of tight financial conditions. That said, J.P. Morgan’s research team cautions that this may not mark the start of a prolonged easing cycle. Rather, they describe it as a modest adjustment — a tactical move shaped by evolving macroeconomic signals and expectations around inflation, employment, and growth. For investors and market watchers, this underscores how sensitive policy expectations remain to economic data. Markets may respond quickly to both the Fed’s actions and its forward guidance. While a rate cut could temporarily support equities and risk assets, uncertainty around future economic momentum and inflation risks means the path ahead is far from assured. In short: J.P. Morgan’s revised view reflects growing confidence that the Fed could ease soon — but also serves as a reminder that even such forecasts must contend with shifting data and uncertain global conditions.
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The latest moves by the Fed, including its December 2025 rate cut, have sharpened market focus on where interest rates might land by late 2026. As of now, many bond investors and traders are penciling in only a “shallow easing cycle,” rather than aggressive cuts. What does that mean? Given current projections and economic conditions, the idea of ending 2026 with a policy rate around 3.1% has gained traction among some market watchers. That target reflects a scenario where the Fed delivers a few modest rate reductions, but keeps policy relatively restrained because inflation remains sticky and growth somewhat resilient. If the 3.1%-by-end-2026 outcome materializes, borrowing costs would still be moderately low by historical standards — potentially supporting sectors dependent on credit (housing, business expansion, consumer credit). Risk assets could benefit, and debt-servicing burdens for households and companies may remain manageable. On the flip side, a shallow easing cycle leaves less buffer if the economy stumbles — meaning any negative growth or inflation shock could lead to policy volatility. Still, the forecast isn’t set in stone. The Fed’s internal projections — the dot plot — currently show a range of possibilities, and there’s disagreement among policymakers about how far and how fast to cut rates. In short: 3.1% by end-2026 seems like a plausible base-case scenario for many in the markets. But the odds of deviation — either toward higher rates or deeper cuts — remain substantial, depending on how inflation, growth, and economic risks evolve.
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The Federal Reserve has announced it will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bills starting December 12, marking a shift in its balance-sheet strategy. Over the next month, the Fed plans to buy roughly $40 billion in Treasury bills, as part of its “reserve management purchases” program. This move aims to rebuild liquidity in the financial system after months of tightening. Why this matters: by buying T-bills, the Fed injects cash (reserves) back into the banking system — helping to stabilize short-term funding markets and maintain control over interest-rate settings. This is especially relevant after the Fed recently ended its quantitative-tightening program, when it had allowed securities to mature without replacement. For markets and investors, this could ease liquidity strains that have caused volatility — potentially supporting bond markets, easing money-market pressure, and indirectly benefiting risk assets. It also signals that the Fed is actively monitoring reserve levels and willing to step in preemptively to avoid funding stress. That said — while this step refills reserves, it is not exactly the same as broad “quantitative easing (QE)” of the past. The focus remains on short-term bills and stabilization of reserves rather than aggressive expansion of the balance sheet or long-term bond buying. In short: with Treasury-bill purchases starting December 12, the Fed is quietly pivoting toward maintaining liquidity in the system — a subtle but important move that could calm markets and influence funding conditions in the weeks ahead.
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Societe Generale now suggests that the recent rally in equities could get another push — because the Fed still has what the bank calls “unfinished business” when it comes to cutting interest rates. The analysts argue that monetary policy remains “moderately restrictive,” and a more forceful rate cut could help rebalance growth risks and support risk-assets. According to Societe Generale, easing from the Fed could widen beyond just major U.S. stocks. Their recommendation: look at small- and mid-cap equities, emerging markets, and sectors like banks and commodities, which tend to benefit when rates fall and liquidity improves. If the Fed delivers — or even signals — deeper rate cuts, this could fuel renewed investor interest in cyclicals, value-oriented names, and non-U.S. equities. At the same time, the firm cautions against relying only on past patterns: future performance will still depend heavily on inflation, global economic conditions, and central-bank decisions. For investors and market watchers, the message is clear: with rate cuts still possible and liquidity returning, markets may get a lift — but it’s wise to position smartly: diversify holdings, consider sectors that benefit from easing, and be ready for volatility if global conditions shift.
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The U.S. central bank has once again cut its benchmark interest rate — marking the third consecutive reduction this year. On December 10, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.50 %–3.75 % — the lowest level in nearly three years. This move comes amid signs of a cooling labour market and softer economic signals, leading many policymakers to favour easing to support growth. At the same time, inflation remains sticky — a factor that’s causing some level of caution within the Fed. For households and businesses, the rate cut could mean cheaper loans and mortgages, potentially boosting spending and investment. Lower borrowing costs may also encourage corporate expansion and support debt-sensitive sectors. Markets reacted positively — with risk assets like equities rallying on hopes that easier financing conditions and improved liquidity could sustain economic momentum. Bond yields and the U.S. dollar also saw volatility as investors adjusted to the new rate outlook. Still, the Fed’s easing streak isn’t a guarantee of smooth growth ahead. With inflation pressures lingering, future policy moves will likely remain data-dependent. The coming months will be closely watched — job growth, consumer demand, and inflation data will all shape whether this rate path continues.
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