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Bluechip
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ETH/USD
$ETH 正处于一个扩大楔形(又称喇叭形)的下行趋势中。拒绝了之前的通道(以白色表示)。这些都是看跌的特征。
最可能的方向是下行。
以太坊看起来与 BTC 非常相似(见下文帖子)。
Bluechip
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$BTC 是在一个看跌的整理模式中,无论你怎么框架它。
仍在等待 BTC 做出决定并选择方向,但应该很快就会到来。区间正在收紧。
它必须要下跌吗?不。更可能的是下跌吗?是的。
这遵循了规则:"趋势往往会持续"。
几率?60% 的可能性会下跌。(我编造了这个数字。这只是一个估计。)
如果 BTC 下跌(当前的看跌持续模式建议这个结果是最可能的),那么 ALTs 将会进一步下跌。从情绪角度来看,这将是真正的绝望、无助和放弃。
这也可能标志着未来几个月的局部底部。随之而来的反弹将是相当可观的。
潜在地,我们越快撕掉创可贴,我们就能越快获得丰厚的反弹。从这里直接上涨也是可以接受的,但考虑到看跌持续模式,这似乎不太可能。
免责声明:含第三方意见,不构成财务建议,并且可能包含赞助内容。
详见《条款和条件》。
ETH
3,087.51
-1.06%
BTC
89,468.38
-1.06%
3.6k
0
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SILVER DID NOT RISE 67% THIS YEAR. It rose 103%. The entire financial media got it wrong by 40%. And that is the least important thing I found. What I found when I went looking: Silver lease rates hit 39% in October. The last time that happened was 1980. Physical silver is being airlifted between New York and London because the paper market and physical market are diverging at levels not seen in 45 years. The copper market has fractured. The COMEX to LME spread hit 26.6% in July. Historical average is below 1%. There is no longer a global copper price. There is an American price and everyone else. China implemented a 0.1% rule on rare earths. If your product contains more than 0.1% Chinese rare earth content, anywhere in the world, you need Beijing's permission to sell it. Every advanced manufactured product on Earth is now potentially hostage. The Pentagon announced a $500 million cobalt purchase in August. By October they cancelled it. Prices moved faster than the US government could act. The IEA documented that critical minerals processing concentration INCREASED from 2020 to 2024. Top three nations rose from 82% to 86%. Every dollar spent on supply chain resilience achieved the opposite. Central banks bought 694 tonnes of gold in nine months. Fourth consecutive year above 700 tonnes. They are not trading. They are positioning. The rules that governed commodity markets for forty years are breaking simultaneously. Geography now matters more than geology. Policy now matters more than price. Physical now matters more than paper. The Great Divergence is not a forecast. It is already here. $BTC #BTCVSGOLD
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$BTC is in a bearish consolidation pattern no matter how you frame it. Still waiting for BTC to make a decision and choose a direction, but it's gotta be close. Range is tightening. Does it HAVE to break down? No. Is it more likely to than not? Yes. This follows the rule: "the trend tends to continue". Odds? 60% of a break down. (I made this figure up. It's just an estimate.) If BTC drops (the bearish continuation pattern(s) currently suggest that outcome is most likely) ALTs will follow down even more. That would be true despair, hopelessness and throwing in the towel, from a sentiment point of view. That would also likely mark the local bottom for months to come. The relief rally that would follow would be sizeable. Potentially, the sooner we rip off the bandaid the sooner we can get a juicy bounce. Going straight up from here would be acceptable too, but it seems less likely, given the bearish continuation pattern.
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$BTC And it’s the 14th. If the 5 month pattern holds, BTC should see at least a 5% drop within the next 1–2 weeks. This is roughly what I’d expect to see.
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Most people focused on Powell this week.
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$BTC Before any potential “exit pump” above the highs, expect prolonged frustration. The market is likely to remain choppy and unforgiving. Designed to wear traders down, force mistakes, and push over leveraging within a seemingly endless range. Only after sufficient liquidity has been built will the final move lower begin. Be ready for plenty of EQHs and EQLs. The previous range lasted around 90 days, and we’re only about 20 days into this one so far.
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