#USNonFarmPayrollReport #HemingwayTrading #FIO #at
📊 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• November CPI expected to show inflation elevated around ~3.0–3.1% YoY — highest in ~1½ years and well above the Fed’s 2% target, adding uncertainty to policy expectations.
📈 Initial Jobless Claims
• Weekly claims figures — markets watching for any surprise weakness or strength in labor markets. Consensus forecasts had claims around ~224 K previously.
👀 Market Implications:
• Higher-than-expected CPI ➜ can shock risk sentiment & strengthen USD, steepen yields.
• Weaker labor data ➜ could fuel Fed rate cut expectations for 2026.
📊 U.S. Fed Balance Sheet (16:30 ET)
• The Fed’s weekly Reserve Balances & Balance Sheet release at 4:30 pm ET often moves money markets — especially Treasury yields, repo, and funding shorts — when showing liquidity shifts.
⚠️ Reasons to watch:
• Any unexpected surge in reserve balances may signal easing liquidity, potentially pressuring yields lower.
• Conversely, shrinking reserves can tighten financial conditions — often dollar-positive.
🇯🇵 Japan Monetary Policy & Rate Decision (≈21:30–22:00 ET)
• Bank of Japan (BoJ) holds its monetary policy & rate decision tonight — markets widely expect BoJ to maintain or adjust its stance after recent tightening from ultra-loose norms.
💴 Why this matters:
• BoJ stance impacts USD/JPY — aggressive tightening could strengthen JPY and shock carry-trade flows.
• Risk appetite is sensitive to divergence between BoJ and U.S. rates — volatility in FX and equities likely.
🧠 Context Driving Volatility
• Stocks & futures were cautious ahead of U.S. data, with inflation expectations running hotter and labor data mixed — markets are bracing for message on future Fed easing.
• Recent Fed policy has cut rates to cycle lows (~3.5–3.75%), but policymakers are mixed on future moves, complicating interpretations of incoming data.
📌 What Traders Are Watching
Bullish catalysts:
✔ Lower jobless claims
✔ BoJ signaling accommodative bias
Bearish catalysts:
❌ Hot CPI data
❌ Shrinking Fed liquidity
❌ BoJ unexpectedly hawkish