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Crypto_GR 1
Crypto enthusiast | Investor since 2020 | KOL | Trader | Content Creator
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Germany Leads the EU in MiCA Crypto Licenses
As the MiCA transition period comes to an end, EU regulators have issued a total of 244 Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) licenses.
Germany tops the list with 57 licenses, accounting for nearly one quarter of all approvals. The Netherlands and France follow with 26 licenses each.
Meanwhile, several EU countries—including Poland, Portugal, Romania, Hungary, and Greece—have not granted any CASP licenses so far.
Starting tomorrow, July 1, the MiCA transition period officially ends, marking the beginning of the EU's new regulatory framework for the crypto industry.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
As the MiCA transition period comes to an end, EU regulators have issued a total of 244 Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) licenses.
Germany tops the list with 57 licenses, accounting for nearly one quarter of all approvals. The Netherlands and France follow with 26 licenses each.
Meanwhile, several EU countries—including Poland, Portugal, Romania, Hungary, and Greece—have not granted any CASP licenses so far.
Starting tomorrow, July 1, the MiCA transition period officially ends, marking the beginning of the EU's new regulatory framework for the crypto industry.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
大型金融公司合作開展一項新的穩定幣項目
據報道，包括 Visa、Stripe、Mastercard、BlackRock 和 Coinbase 在內的一批大型金融機構正在共同開發一款名爲 OUSD 的新穩定幣。
該項目的設計是：參與公司將分享因使用該穩定幣所產生的收入。
$BTC #宏觀洞察#
據報道，包括 Visa、Stripe、Mastercard、BlackRock 和 Coinbase 在內的一批大型金融機構正在共同開發一款名爲 OUSD 的新穩定幣。
該項目的設計是：參與公司將分享因使用該穩定幣所產生的收入。
$BTC #宏觀洞察#
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Key Indicators to Identify a Potential Bitcoin Bottom
Bitcoin bottoms are not identified by a single metric, but by the confluence of multiple on-chain indicators that have historically aligned with capitulation and accumulation phases.
1. MVRV Z-Score
Compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value (average network cost basis).
When it drops near or below 0, the asset is historically undervalued and often near cycle bottoms.
2. Supply in Loss
Measures the percentage of BTC held at an unrealized loss.
When it exceeds 50%, the market is typically in extreme pain and broad capitulation.
3. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Shows whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss.
SOPR > 1 → selling at profit
SOPR < 1 → selling at loss
Sustained values below 1 indicate capitulation.
4. Realized Losses
Tracks actual losses being realized on-chain.
Extreme spikes usually mark forced selling from weak hands.
5. LTH Supply in Loss
Measures how many long-term holders are in unrealized losses.
When strong hands turn red, it often signals late-stage bear market conditions.
6. Puell Multiple
Evaluates miner profitability.
Very low levels indicate miner stress, historically associated with market bottoms.
7. Exchange Flows
Net outflows → accumulation
Net inflows → selling pressure
Bottoms often form during sustained outflows to cold storage.
8. NUPL
Measures unrealized profit and loss across the market.
Negative zones reflect extreme fear and accumulation conditions.
Historically, these conditions have marked not the end of the cycle, but the beginning of long-term accumulation.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
Bitcoin bottoms are not identified by a single metric, but by the confluence of multiple on-chain indicators that have historically aligned with capitulation and accumulation phases.
1. MVRV Z-Score
Compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value (average network cost basis).
When it drops near or below 0, the asset is historically undervalued and often near cycle bottoms.
2. Supply in Loss
Measures the percentage of BTC held at an unrealized loss.
When it exceeds 50%, the market is typically in extreme pain and broad capitulation.
3. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Shows whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss.
SOPR > 1 → selling at profit
SOPR < 1 → selling at loss
Sustained values below 1 indicate capitulation.
4. Realized Losses
Tracks actual losses being realized on-chain.
Extreme spikes usually mark forced selling from weak hands.
5. LTH Supply in Loss
Measures how many long-term holders are in unrealized losses.
When strong hands turn red, it often signals late-stage bear market conditions.
6. Puell Multiple
Evaluates miner profitability.
Very low levels indicate miner stress, historically associated with market bottoms.
7. Exchange Flows
Net outflows → accumulation
Net inflows → selling pressure
Bottoms often form during sustained outflows to cold storage.
8. NUPL
Measures unrealized profit and loss across the market.
Negative zones reflect extreme fear and accumulation conditions.
Historically, these conditions have marked not the end of the cycle, but the beginning of long-term accumulation.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
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Chinese Businessman Sentenced to 30 Years in Prison for $1 Billion Crypto Fraud
A U.S. court has sentenced Chinese businessman Guo Wengui to 30 years in prison and ordered the forfeiture of approximately $889 million.
According to prosecutors, Guo raised funds from investors through several fraudulent schemes. Authorities estimate that the total losses exceeded $1 billion.
During the sentencing, prosecutors argued that the scale of the fraud was comparable to other major financial crime cases, including those involving Sam Bankman-Fried and Bernard Madoff.
Guo's legal team has announced that it plans to appeal the court's decision.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
A U.S. court has sentenced Chinese businessman Guo Wengui to 30 years in prison and ordered the forfeiture of approximately $889 million.
According to prosecutors, Guo raised funds from investors through several fraudulent schemes. Authorities estimate that the total losses exceeded $1 billion.
During the sentencing, prosecutors argued that the scale of the fraud was comparable to other major financial crime cases, including those involving Sam Bankman-Fried and Bernard Madoff.
Guo's legal team has announced that it plans to appeal the court's decision.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
戰略是否在爲可能的 $BTC 出售做準備？👀
近幾天圍繞 Strategy 與 Michael Saylor 的討論明顯升溫。
多年來，該公司的信息非常明確：買入比特幣並長期持有。然而，Strategy 現在已正式表示，如果有需要以強化其財務狀況或更有效地管理流動性，它可能會出售其部分 $BTC 持倉。
與此同時，公司也採取了若干重要舉措：
- 將現金儲備增加至 25.5 億美元
- 批准了 10 億美元的股票回購計劃
- 授權在需要時通過最高 12.5 億美元的比特幣出售來籌集流動性
這是否意味着 Strategy 陷入困境？
不一定。
許多分析師認爲，這些舉措是爲了提升財務靈活性，而並非背離其對長期比特幣的信念。此外，股票回購計劃尚未執行，這表明公司可能在等待更有利的市場條件。
關鍵問題仍是：如果比特幣進一步下跌會怎樣？在這種情況下，Strategy 的資產負債表承壓將加大，而 $BTC 出售的可能性也會隨之上升。
#宏觀洞察# #Strategy
近幾天圍繞 Strategy 與 Michael Saylor 的討論明顯升溫。
多年來，該公司的信息非常明確：買入比特幣並長期持有。然而，Strategy 現在已正式表示，如果有需要以強化其財務狀況或更有效地管理流動性，它可能會出售其部分 $BTC 持倉。
與此同時，公司也採取了若干重要舉措：
- 將現金儲備增加至 25.5 億美元
- 批准了 10 億美元的股票回購計劃
- 授權在需要時通過最高 12.5 億美元的比特幣出售來籌集流動性
這是否意味着 Strategy 陷入困境？
不一定。
許多分析師認爲，這些舉措是爲了提升財務靈活性，而並非背離其對長期比特幣的信念。此外，股票回購計劃尚未執行，這表明公司可能在等待更有利的市場條件。
關鍵問題仍是：如果比特幣進一步下跌會怎樣？在這種情況下，Strategy 的資產負債表承壓將加大，而 $BTC 出售的可能性也會隨之上升。
#宏觀洞察# #Strategy
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$BTC at $58K Feels a Lot Like $18K Did in 2022
I came across an interesting on-chain metric showing that the number of Bitcoin holders currently at a loss has reached its highest level in the past four years.
The last time this happened was during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin was trading around $18K.
I still remember many people saying they would only buy if $BTC dropped to $10K–12K. In reality, that opportunity never came, and Bitcoin never returned to those levels after the market recovered.
#BTC Price Analysis#
I came across an interesting on-chain metric showing that the number of Bitcoin holders currently at a loss has reached its highest level in the past four years.
The last time this happened was during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin was trading around $18K.
I still remember many people saying they would only buy if $BTC dropped to $10K–12K. In reality, that opportunity never came, and Bitcoin never returned to those levels after the market recovered.
#BTC Price Analysis#
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What If the Problem Was Never the Charts?
For decades, traders have been told the same thing: learn chart patterns, recognize formations, and you'll be able to anticipate the market's next move. Triangles, head and shoulders, flags, cups... the list goes on.
However, Peter Brandt, a trader with more than 50 years of market experience, argues something many people don't expect: chart patterns do not predict price.
Based on his experience, even correctly identified chart patterns fail most of the time. He estimates that fewer than 25% develop as expected. He also points out that many of the patterns shared on social media aren't even properly identified.
So, what is technical analysis actually useful for?
Not for predicting the future, but for understanding market behavior. A chart helps reveal where buying or selling pressure emerged, where liquidity accumulated, and where large market participants may have been active.
According to Brandt, the real edge doesn't come from finding the "perfect" pattern. It comes from managing risk, cutting losses quickly, and letting winning trades run.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
For decades, traders have been told the same thing: learn chart patterns, recognize formations, and you'll be able to anticipate the market's next move. Triangles, head and shoulders, flags, cups... the list goes on.
However, Peter Brandt, a trader with more than 50 years of market experience, argues something many people don't expect: chart patterns do not predict price.
Based on his experience, even correctly identified chart patterns fail most of the time. He estimates that fewer than 25% develop as expected. He also points out that many of the patterns shared on social media aren't even properly identified.
So, what is technical analysis actually useful for?
Not for predicting the future, but for understanding market behavior. A chart helps reveal where buying or selling pressure emerged, where liquidity accumulated, and where large market participants may have been active.
According to Brandt, the real edge doesn't come from finding the "perfect" pattern. It comes from managing risk, cutting losses quickly, and letting winning trades run.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
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Have you noticed how the market has changed?
A few years ago, we joined projects expecting a 2x, 5x, or even a 10x.
Airdrops could earn you hundreds or even thousands of dollars, and if a project only returned 20% or 30%, many people would say, "Crypto doesn't pay anymore."
Today, the reality is very different. Now we celebrate 5%, 10%, or 20% gains, because those are the opportunities the market offers much more frequently.
It's not that we've become less ambitious. The market has simply changed.
Big multipliers are much less common, capital moves differently, and the opportunities are not the same as they were a few years ago.
Every cycle changes the rules of the game. The people who are still here aren't necessarily the ones taking the biggest risks—they're the ones who know how to adapt.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
A few years ago, we joined projects expecting a 2x, 5x, or even a 10x.
Airdrops could earn you hundreds or even thousands of dollars, and if a project only returned 20% or 30%, many people would say, "Crypto doesn't pay anymore."
Today, the reality is very different. Now we celebrate 5%, 10%, or 20% gains, because those are the opportunities the market offers much more frequently.
It's not that we've become less ambitious. The market has simply changed.
Big multipliers are much less common, capital moves differently, and the opportunities are not the same as they were a few years ago.
Every cycle changes the rules of the game. The people who are still here aren't necessarily the ones taking the biggest risks—they're the ones who know how to adapt.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
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Multicoin Capital Sees $HYPE Reaching $300+ by 2028
Multicoin Capital says it is still buying more $HYPE and considers it one of the biggest holdings in its liquid fund.
In its main forecast, the firm believes $HYPE could climb to around $319 by 2028. The prediction is based on Hyperliquid's growth, higher protocol revenue, and the daily token buyback program, which regularly purchases $HYPE from the market.
#Macro Insights#
Multicoin Capital says it is still buying more $HYPE and considers it one of the biggest holdings in its liquid fund.
In its main forecast, the firm believes $HYPE could climb to around $319 by 2028. The prediction is based on Hyperliquid's growth, higher protocol revenue, and the daily token buyback program, which regularly purchases $HYPE from the market.
#Macro Insights#
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Pump.fun Offers Up to $5 Million a Year for a Top Legal Executive
Pump.fun is looking for a Chief Legal Officer and is offering a yearly salary between $1 million and $5 million.
The person hired will manage legal matters with regulators such as the SEC, CFTC, FinCEN, and OFAC. They will also oversee compliance with MiCA rules in Europe, regulations in Asia, court cases, and cooperation with law enforcement agencies.
According to the company, the goal is to build a strong legal team to support the platform’s future growth and expansion.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
Pump.fun is looking for a Chief Legal Officer and is offering a yearly salary between $1 million and $5 million.
The person hired will manage legal matters with regulators such as the SEC, CFTC, FinCEN, and OFAC. They will also oversee compliance with MiCA rules in Europe, regulations in Asia, court cases, and cooperation with law enforcement agencies.
According to the company, the goal is to build a strong legal team to support the platform’s future growth and expansion.
$BTC #Macro Insights#
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Could $BTC Hit $1 Million by 2028?
Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes Bitcoin could climb to between $500,000 and $1 million before the current halving cycle ends.
According to Back, $BTC doesn't need a major new event to reach those prices. The market already has strong factors supporting growth, including money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, increasing interest from everyday investors, and more BTC moving from short-term sellers to long-term holders.
He also revealed that he has made several bets on this prediction and thinks Bitcoin could reach these levels much sooner than most people expect.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis#
Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes Bitcoin could climb to between $500,000 and $1 million before the current halving cycle ends.
According to Back, $BTC doesn't need a major new event to reach those prices. The market already has strong factors supporting growth, including money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, increasing interest from everyday investors, and more BTC moving from short-term sellers to long-term holders.
He also revealed that he has made several bets on this prediction and thinks Bitcoin could reach these levels much sooner than most people expect.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis#
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Glassnode Signals That Altcoin Season May Be Starting
Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal has climbed to 86 out of 100, reaching a level that is often linked to the beginning of an altcoin season.
According to the data, selling pressure on altcoins has been easing since mid-April. At the same time, most of the recent market selling has been concentrated in Bitcoin.
This shift has helped the indicator move in favor of altcoins, suggesting that the market could be entering a stronger period for alternative cryptocurrencies.
$BTC #Altcoin Season#
Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal has climbed to 86 out of 100, reaching a level that is often linked to the beginning of an altcoin season.
According to the data, selling pressure on altcoins has been easing since mid-April. At the same time, most of the recent market selling has been concentrated in Bitcoin.
This shift has helped the indicator move in favor of altcoins, suggesting that the market could be entering a stronger period for alternative cryptocurrencies.
$BTC #Altcoin Season#
SpaceX 股票回落至 IPO 價格
SpaceX 股票已經抹去自 IPO 以來的所有漲幅。在過去四個交易日中，該公司的市值下降了約 7000 億美元，而股價在單個交易日內下跌超過 10%。
目前，股票交易接近其 IPO 水平，剛好在每股 150 美元以上。這意味着許多在上市後買入的投資者目前正處於虧損狀態。
經過最近的拋售，$SPCX 已滑落至全球市值第九的位置。
$SPCX #宏觀洞察#
SpaceX 股票已經抹去自 IPO 以來的所有漲幅。在過去四個交易日中，該公司的市值下降了約 7000 億美元，而股價在單個交易日內下跌超過 10%。
目前，股票交易接近其 IPO 水平，剛好在每股 150 美元以上。這意味着許多在上市後買入的投資者目前正處於虧損狀態。
經過最近的拋售，$SPCX 已滑落至全球市值第九的位置。
$SPCX #宏觀洞察#
日本養老金基金可能會增加加密貨幣投資
日本一家大型養老金基金正在準備今年投資於加密貨幣。
該基金已經研究這個想法好幾年。官員們認爲，現在的加密市場更強大、更成熟，因爲越來越多的人和機構開始參與其中。
他們還認爲，加密貨幣是一種分散風險、降低對美元依賴的方式。
該基金代表着大約1,200家公司和超過20,000名員工。
$BTC #宏觀洞察#
日本一家大型養老金基金正在準備今年投資於加密貨幣。
該基金已經研究這個想法好幾年。官員們認爲，現在的加密市場更強大、更成熟，因爲越來越多的人和機構開始參與其中。
他們還認爲，加密貨幣是一種分散風險、降低對美元依賴的方式。
該基金代表着大約1,200家公司和超過20,000名員工。
$BTC #宏觀洞察#
許多比特幣礦工正在虧損
根據摩根大通的研究，比特幣的交易價格已經低於礦工的估算生產成本幾個月了。
根據估算模型，挖掘1個BTC的平均成本目前大約爲$78,000，但這個數字因電價和挖礦效率的不同而有很大差異。同時，市場價格大約爲$62,500。
由於這個差距，估計有大約20%的礦工在虧損。
爲了覆蓋成本，上市的礦業公司在2026年第一季度賣出了超過32,000個BTC，這比他們在2025年全年賣出的還多。
#宏觀見解# $BTC
根據摩根大通的研究，比特幣的交易價格已經低於礦工的估算生產成本幾個月了。
根據估算模型，挖掘1個BTC的平均成本目前大約爲$78,000，但這個數字因電價和挖礦效率的不同而有很大差異。同時，市場價格大約爲$62,500。
由於這個差距，估計有大約20%的礦工在虧損。
爲了覆蓋成本，上市的礦業公司在2026年第一季度賣出了超過32,000個BTC，這比他們在2025年全年賣出的還多。
#宏觀見解# $BTC
ChatGPT幫我啓發了STRC策略的想法
策略創始人邁克爾·塞勒表示，STRC優先股的想法是在與ChatGPT的對話後產生的。
STRC是一種金融產品，幫助公司籌集資金用於購買更多比特幣，同時投資者獲得固定的投資回報。
有趣的是，這個AI輔助的想法現在正面臨一段艱難時期。STRC的股價最近跌至約$82.5，儘管其面值爲$100，使得投資者收益率上升到約11.5%。
$BTC #宏觀洞察#
策略創始人邁克爾·塞勒表示，STRC優先股的想法是在與ChatGPT的對話後產生的。
STRC是一種金融產品，幫助公司籌集資金用於購買更多比特幣，同時投資者獲得固定的投資回報。
有趣的是，這個AI輔助的想法現在正面臨一段艱難時期。STRC的股價最近跌至約$82.5，儘管其面值爲$100，使得投資者收益率上升到約11.5%。
$BTC #宏觀洞察#
SBF談論在監獄出獄後推出新的加密貨幣代幣
前FTX老闆山姆·班克曼-弗里德在一次訪談中表示，他可能在出獄後創建自己的加密貨幣代幣。
他目前正在服刑25年，與FTX崩盤有關，並且仍在努力爭取特赦。他還認為自己的行為並不算特別嚴重，因為客戶最終拿回了他們的資金。
SBF還分享了他正在做的事情：
寫書
幫助其他囚犯
考慮未來的新商業點子
#宏觀洞察# #FTX $BTC
前FTX老闆山姆·班克曼-弗里德在一次訪談中表示，他可能在出獄後創建自己的加密貨幣代幣。
他目前正在服刑25年，與FTX崩盤有關，並且仍在努力爭取特赦。他還認為自己的行為並不算特別嚴重，因為客戶最終拿回了他們的資金。
SBF還分享了他正在做的事情：
寫書
幫助其他囚犯
考慮未來的新商業點子
#宏觀洞察# #FTX $BTC
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