For-Exx Kripto 1

🔐 **CRYPTO REPORT — 2 JULY 2026**

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🌐 TODAY’S KEY NEWS

South Korea halted selling after the KOSPI index dropped 6.5%, with losses exceeding 400B won in market value.

According to the WSJ, gold could reach $5,000/oz by early 2027.

US Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, significantly below the 113,000 forecast, signaling a cooling labor market.

White House advisor Hassett said employment data is consistent with a strong economy.

AI and semiconductor stocks extended losses, with Asian markets losing over $730B in value.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

₿ BITCOIN

$BTC rose following the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls data and is currently trading around 61,800.

The weaker labor data increased expectations that no further aggressive rate hikes may occur, providing short-term support to crypto markets.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📋 CRYPTO MARKETS NEWS

Tiger Research turned more constructive on BTC, stating the market may be in the final stage of its bear cycle.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS

MemeCore (M): ~56–78M tokens, ~ $ 32–45M value | HIGH selling pressure 🔴
Note: One of the largest cliff unlocks of July; may create pressure in low liquidity conditions.

StakeStone (STO): ~20.67M tokens, ~$950K–1.05M | MEDIUM pressure 🟡

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔭 OUTLOOK

Weaker-than-expected US jobs data triggered buying in risk assets. Fed rate hike expectations dropped sharply from ~30% to ~17%, with the probability of multiple hikes reduced after the release.

BLS projections suggesting unemployment could reach 61.1% by 2034 have raised concerns about longer-term economic weakness, though the estimate is seen as aggressive.

Markets may remain sideways tomorrow due to the US holiday.

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — July 1, 2026 (Page 2/2)

📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS

Citigroup lowered its BTC and ETH targets, citing weaker ETF flows and regulatory uncertainty, while cutting its 12-month net ETF inflow forecast to zero. Bitcoin options are seeing rising demand for $50K puts, and gold futures formed a death cross, reflecting a defensive market. Polygon zkEVM will shut down this week. Galaxy Digital lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%. Bybit was added to Singapore's investor alert list. Ledn introduced Tether Gold as collateral. Strategy announced a new capital framework allowing up to $ 1.25B in BTC sales. June also recorded a record $ 4.06B in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows.

🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS

$BEAT (Audiera) will unlock 21.24M tokens worth about $49.7M on July 2, equal to roughly 7% of circulating supply. Selling pressure is expected to remain moderate, although weaker market conditions could amplify volatility.

🔭 OUTLOOK

Warsh's comments eased inflation concerns and supported BTC, but a lasting recovery still requires ETF outflows to slow, exchange BTC inflows to decline, and the Coinbase Premium to turn positive.

Key events ahead include U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate on Thursday (15:30 TRT), Friday's U.S. Independence Day market holiday, and the $HYPE unlock worth roughly $630M on July 6, the largest token unlock of the month.

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — July 1, 2026 (Page 1/2)

🌐 MARKET OVERVIEW

$BTC fell to $57,742, its lowest level since September 2024, briefly breaking below the 200-week moving average before recovering toward $60,000 after Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks had eased. White House adviser Kevin Hassett called further rate hikes a mistake, while Trump and Vance expressed optimism over Iran talks.

MiCA's transition period officially ended, putting more than 3,000 unlicensed crypto firms across Europe at risk of suspension. Crédit Agricole launched the EURXT euro-backed stablecoin. Crypto companies spent a record $189M on the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, while Trump disclosed earning more than $500M from World Liberty Financial token sales.

U.S. manufacturing slowed in June as the ISM index fell from 54.0 to 53.3, below expectations. China's top diplomat also urged the U.S. to handle Taiwan with "maximum caution."

₿ BITCOIN

BTC rebounded after hitting a 21-month low, but on-chain indicators remain weak. Exchange inflows climbed to 122K BTC, well above the yearly average. SOPR remains below 1.0, while spot demand has stayed negative for 208 consecutive days. A confirmed recovery will likely require those indicators to reverse.

🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS

ETH continues to trade sideways as EthLabs launches ahead of the Glamsterdam upgrade. AAVE gained about 20% over the past week and recorded its strongest new wallet growth in nearly five years. XRP and HYPE ETFs are attracting part of the capital leaving BTC and $ETH funds.

Crypto theft fell 7% in June, with hackers stealing about $75.9 million across 40 major incidents, down from $81.7 million in May,according to blockchain security firm PeckShield.

The largest exploit targeted Humanity Protocol( $H ),accounting for $31 million. On-chain analyst Specter first reported suspicious withdrawals on June 9,while the project's investigation later estimated losses at nearly $36 million. Founder Terence Kwok attributed the breach to a compromised private key.

Syscoin Bridge lost $10 million after a validation flaw allowed an attacker to mint billions of unbacked SYS tokens.

A bot linked to JaredFromSubway. eth,known for MEV sandwich attacks, was reportedly hit by a $ 7.5 million exploit. Other notable June incidents included Secret Network, Polymarket users, SecondFi and TESSERA,with losses ranging from $2.4 million to $ 4.67 million.

Aztec's deprecated infrastructure was exploited twice during the month. PeckShield reported losses of about $2.16 million from Aztec Bridge and $2.1 million from Aztec Connect. The Aztec Foundation said both contracts are no longer under its control. Combined losses were estimated at roughly $ 4million

Other victims in PeckShield's top 10 included Taiko Bridge ($ 1.7M), Token of Power ($ 1.58M), Raydium ($ 1.34M) and LABUBU/OLPC ($ 1.1M)

PeckShield said the Humanity Protocol attacker laundered stolen funds through $BTC ,Solana,Hyperliquid and BNB Chain. Some proceeds were mixed with funds linked to the Kelp DAO attacker,suggesting the same threat actor may be behind both exploits.

According to TRM Labs,crypto hacks and exploits have caused more than $750 million in losses in 2026,with most of the damage stemming from two major April attacks.

Drift Protocol lost $285 million on April 1 after attackers infiltrated Solana governance signers through months of social engineering. On April 18,Kelp DAO's LayerZero bridge suffered a $292 million exploit after its validator network was compromised

由於7月4日假期，6月非農就業報告（NFP）將於明天（週四，7月2日）15:30 TRT發佈，而非週五發佈。當前展望：一致預期：約114K。預期失業率：4.3%–4.4%（此前：4.3%）。上次公佈（5月）：172K vs. 預期85K。美聯儲利率預期：3.50%–3.75%，6月保持不變。中東主導的能源價格風險仍將支撐通脹，使得本月的NFP比以往更受關注。
情景1——強勁報告（150K+ / 失業率4.2%或更低）
穩健的勞動力市場將強化市場對更鷹派美聯儲的預期。
美元：走強；DXY可能上破。
黃金：偏空；更高的實際收益率預期將對價格構成壓力。
比特幣：初期承壓；對更緊的貨幣政策的擔憂會降低流動性。
股市（標普500 / 納斯達克）：早期漲幅可能會因“過熱”擔憂升溫而回落。

情景2——疲弱報告（低於60K / 失業率4.5%+）
市場將對更早的美聯儲降息週期進行定價。
美元：走弱。
黃金：因避險需求及收益率預期下調而偏多。
比特幣：通常偏正面，儘管經濟衰退擔憂可能會增加波動。
股市：初期走弱，但降息預期可能限制跌幅。

情景3——符合預期（110K–120K / 失業率4.3%–4.4%）
市場將維持對“數據驅動型”美聯儲的預期。
美元：波動有限。
黃金：中性。
比特幣：ETF資金流與加密特定新聞將成爲主要驅動因素。
股市：不確定性緩解，溫和偏多。

備註：較高的中東能源風險可能會放大市場反應。若強勁就業數據疊加更高的能源價格，可能會使美聯儲的立場比歷史常規更偏鷹派。 $BTC $XRP

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — June 30, 2026

🌐 TOP HEADLINES

Wall Street tech stocks sold off sharply, with the "Magnificent 7" losing $2.3T combined. Microsoft is down over 18% this month, on track for its worst monthly performance in 25 years. CZ said Binance withdrew its Greece MiCA application due to political interference. No high-level US-Iran talks are planned in Doha. Central banks reportedly plan to shift away from dollar assets toward gold and euros. US equities close a strong quarter (S&P +14%, Nasdaq +20%) while gold heads for its worst quarter in 13 years, down 13%. Iran has set a precondition of an interim deal before further US talks.

₿ BITCOIN

$BTC trades in the $58,000–$59,000 range, down roughly 20% in June on ETF outflows and weak institutional demand. Critical support: $57,500–$58,000; a break below opens $55,000–$56,000. Volume remains thin with limited buying interest.

📋 KEY HEADLINES

• Avalanche told regulators it may not survive past year-end.

• A Solana-linked firm signed a crypto hub deal for Kazakhstan's Alatau City.

• Tom Lee says "window dressing" is amplifying crypto weakness.

• Magic Eden faces a class action in the US over alleged misleading ads.

• SEC fined crypto platform NanoBit over $5M.

• Bitcoin ETFs logged an 8th straight day of outflows; June total reached $ 4.3B.

• Markets are pricing a 70% chance BTC falls below $50K this year.

🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — July 1

EigenCloud (EIGEN) — ~$ 8.33M, 5% of supply. 🟡 MEDIUM

Kite AI (KITE) — ~$6.88–7M, 2.5% of supply. 🟡 LOW-MEDIUM

Combined: ~$15–20M, no major cliff.

🔭 OUTLOOK

Bitcoin remains fragile below $60K as ETF outflows and macro pressure weigh on price; $57.5K–$58K is the key support zone to watch. Fed Chair Warsh speaks tomorrow — markets will parse his tone closely. Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls is the month's key data point. US markets are closed Friday for the holiday, making this a shortened trading week.

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — June 30, 2026

🌐 TOP HEADLINES
Wall Street tech stocks sold off sharply, with the "Magnificent 7" losing $2.3T combined. Microsoft is down over 18% this month, on track for its worst monthly performance in 25 years. CZ said Binance withdrew its Greece MiCA application due to political interference. No high-level US-Iran talks are planned in Doha. Central banks reportedly plan to shift away from dollar assets toward gold and euros. US equities close a strong quarter (S&P +14%, Nasdaq +20%) while gold heads for its worst quarter in 13 years, down 13%. Iran has set a precondition of an interim deal before further US talks.

₿ BITCOIN
$BTC trades in the $58,000–$59,000 range, down roughly 20% in June on ETF outflows and weak institutional demand. Critical support: $57,500–$58,000; a break below opens $55,000–$56,000. Volume remains thin with limited buying interest.

📋 KEY HEADLINES
• Avalanche told regulators it may not survive past year-end.
• A Solana-linked firm signed a crypto hub deal for Kazakhstan's Alatau City.
• Tom Lee says "window dressing" is amplifying crypto weakness.
• Magic Eden faces a class action in the US over alleged misleading ads.
• SEC fined crypto platform NanoBit over $5M.
• Bitcoin ETFs logged an 8th straight day of outflows; June total reached $ 4.3B.
• Markets are pricing a 70% chance BTC falls below $50K this year.

🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — July 1
EigenCloud ($EIGEN ) — ~$ 8.33M, 5% of supply. 🟡 MEDIUM
Kite AI (KITE) — ~$6.88–7M, 2.5% of supply. 🟡 LOW-MEDIUM
Combined: ~$15–20M, no major cliff.

🔭 OUTLOOK
Bitcoin remains fragile below $60K as ETF outflows and macro pressure weigh on price; $57.5K–$58K is the key support zone to watch. Fed Chair Warsh speaks tomorrow — markets will parse his tone closely. Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls is the month's key data point. US markets are closed Friday for the holiday, making this a shortened trading week.

According to Protos, Avalanche Treasury Corp (AVAT), the largest publicly traded $AVAX treasury company, quietly warned regulators yesterday that it may not survive through the end of the year.

Last October, the company promoted a $ 1 billion AVAX treasury. Today, its market capitalization has fallen below $30 million.

Just weeks after its highly anticipated Nasdaq debut, AVAT issued a going-concern warning following a 93% collapse in its share price. Its operating subsidiary reported a quarterly loss exceeding $26 million, almost entirely due to the decline in the fair value of its AVAX holdings. AVAX is down 47% year-to-date and nearly two-thirds over the past year.

The company spent about $265 million acquiring AVAX, but the position was worth only around $123 million at the end of March, leaving it with losses exceeding 50%.

AVAT completed its SPAC merger and listed in June. Shares that traded above $10 at the start of the month plunged after investors reviewed additional SEC filings, closing at $ 1.85 on June 11. The selloff continued, with shares recently trading below $0.73, representing a 93% decline in just one month.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that roughly 7.8 million of its 13.8 million AVAX tokens have been pledged as collateral for loans.

In its latest financial statements, the company acknowledged that substantial doubt remains about its ability to continue as a going concern.

AVAT is not the only company struggling with an AVAX treasury strategy. AgriFORCE Growing Systems, renamed AVAX One last September, announced plans to raise about $550 million to acquire more than $700 million worth of AVAX, backed by several crypto funds and advised by Anthony Scaramucci.

Today, AVAX One's market value is around $43 million, with its stock down 68% year-to-date and 93% over the past 12 months.

$XRP found support at 1.01 three times, buyers signaled they will not let go of this point, if the 1.0774 level is breached, the upward momentum may increase slightly...
Tomorrow there is a speech by Fed Chairman Warsh, and on Thursday there is Non-Farm Payrolls, these two data points will determine the direction.

Major Economic Events in July All major central banks—including the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of England (BoE), and European Central Bank (ECB)—will announce their interest rate decisions. In addition, key economic releases such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to be among the most closely watched market-moving events of the month. $BTC $XRP

In a tweet I wrote on January 29, 2025, I stated that approximately 400 billion $LUNC were burned. Today is June 30, 2026, and 1.5 years have passed...
In the last 1.5 years, approximately 50 billion LUNC have been burned, and at today's price, its value is approximately $ 3,080,000. This current coin burning rate won't get us anywhere; action needs to be taken by the validators and project owners.

$BTC has found support at the 58,000 level many times recently, which appears to be the last resistance point for the bulls before the next breakout. A break below this will likely target the 56,900 level. Every minute it stays below 60,000 increases this risk.

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — 29 June 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🌐 TODAY’S KEY NEWS

Deutsche Bank reported a record $9.3B outflow from tech funds last week.
US special envoys Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Doha to discuss Iran negotiations with Qatari officials.
US and Iran technical teams will hold separate meetings on Wednesday with Qatar and Pakistan mediators.
The US Supreme Court blocked an attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Gold retested the $ 4,000 level, with buyers and sellers still in balance.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

₿ BITCOIN

$BTC is trading just above $59,000 after a weekly drop of more than 6%.
ETF outflows continue and derivatives open interest is declining.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS

Ethereum trades between $ 1,500– $ 1,600 in a sideways structure with no clear catalyst.

Liquidity remains weak across altcoins and selective movements dominate the market.

$LUNC has remained weak after breaking below the 6666 level. The 5045 level now stands out as a critical support zone. A confirmed breakdown below 5045 could accelerate the downside and increase selling pressure. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📋 CRYPTO MARKETS NEWS
Galaxy Research reduced the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50% (from 60%).

Strategy’s market cap has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, signaling weaker investor confidence.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS

No major unlocks for June 30.

July 1 total unlock volume estimated at $15–20M with no major cliff events.

EıgenCloud (~$ 8.33M, 5% supply, medium pressure).
KITE AI (~$6.88–7M, 2.5% supply, low–medium pressure).
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK

Bitcoin weakness below $60,000 keeps short-term pressure active.

July 1 unlocks are limited but may still cause minor price reactions in fragile conditions.

🔐 加密貨幣簡報 — 2026年6月26日

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🌐 今日要聞

德意志銀行報告稱，上週科技基金出現創紀錄的93億美元資金淨流出。
美國特別使節維特科夫和賈裏德·庫什納將前往多哈，與卡塔爾官員討論伊朗談判。
美國與伊朗技術團隊將於週三分別與卡塔爾和巴基斯坦的調解方舉行會議。
美國最高法院阻止了一項旨在移除美聯儲理事麗薩·庫克的嘗試。
黃金在$ 4,000附近再度測試，買賣雙方仍保持平衡。

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

₿ 比特幣

$BTC 在經歷上週超過6%的下跌後，目前交投在59,000美元上方不遠處。
ETF資金淨流出仍在持續，衍生品未平倉合約持倉量正在下降。

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔷 以太坊與山寨幣

ETH在$ 1,500– $ 1,600之間盤整，結構橫向延續，暫無明確催化劑。
山寨幣整體流動性依然偏弱，市場由部分選擇性走勢主導。$LUNC 在跌破6,666水平後持續走弱。現在，5,045水平凸顯爲關鍵支撐區域。若在5,045下方確認跌破，可能加速下行並加大賣壓。

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📋 加密市場新聞

Galaxy Research將CLARITY法案在2026年通過的概率下調至50%（此前爲60%）。
Strategy的市值已跌破其所持比特幣價值，反映出投資者信心走弱。

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔓 代幣解鎖

6月30日無重大解鎖。
預計7月1日總解鎖規模爲1500萬–2000萬美元，且沒有重大“懸崖式”事件。
EigenCloud（~$ 8.33M，供應量佔比5%，中等壓力）。
KITE AI（~$6.88–7M，供應量佔比2.5%，低—中等壓力）。

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔭 展望

比特幣跌勢在60,000美元下方維持，令短期壓力仍然存在。
7月1日的解鎖規模有限，但在市場脆弱的情況下仍可能引發輕微的價格反應。

Strategy's market value has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time, weakening investor confidence in the Bitcoin strategy pioneered by Michael Saylor.

According to Reuters, investors are closely watching Strategy's mNAV ratio, which compares the company's enterprise value with the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The metric gained importance after CEO Phong Le said last year that Strategy could consider selling Bitcoin if the ratio fell below 1.

Earlier this month, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder confirmed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, marking a major shift in strategy. The company also reported a larger first-quarter loss as lower Bitcoin prices reduced the value of its holdings.

According to Strategy's website, the latest mNAV ratio is 0.99, meaning the company's enterprise value is now below the value of its Bitcoin reserves.

Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin said this is negative for investor confidence, adding that Strategy had been the last digital treasury company still trusted by many investors.

Strategy's market capitalization closed at $29.54 billion, less than half of its 2024 peak above $71 billion. The stock has fallen more than 45% this year.

The company currently holds 847,363 BTC, worth about $50.4 billion based on Sunday's closing Bitcoin price of $59,577.82.

Bitcoin was last trading near $59,900, close to a 20-month low and more than 50% below its record high of $126,223 reached last October.

Crypto markets have struggled this year due to higher volatility, IPO-related investor speculation, and continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
$BTC

Crypto Adoption Is Growing, But Prices Are Falling: How to Read This Paradox Crypto finds new use cases every day. Yet markets tell a different story. The answer lies in what "adoption" actually means. Adoption and Price Are Not the Same Thing A network's expanding utility doesn't automatically translate into speculative demand. USDC integration into Visa's infrastructure matters for Ethereum's technical value — but creates no direct buying pressure on $ETH . This disconnect is a structural transition phase seen in every maturing asset class. Institutions Are Building Infrastructure, Not Buying Tokens Much of institutional entry between 2023–2025 wasn't about purchasing tokens — it was about building infrastructure. BlackRock's tokenization experiments, JPMorgan's private blockchain, Swift's digital asset bridges — none generate sustained spot market buying pressure. Institutional interest is real, but its market impact looks very different from what retail investors expect. Macro Pressure Writes the Rest of the Story No matter how strong the adoption headlines, crypto remains a risk-on asset class tied to global liquidity. High interest rates structurally pushed capital away from risky assets. Price reflects not just project quality, but capital flows, dollar liquidity, and institutional risk tolerance. Supply Pressure Works Silently As adoption grows, so does token supply. VC unlocks, early investor vesting, and miner sales create constant supply streams. Demand must absorb all of this — adoption is usually linear while supply pressure is cyclical. When Does This Change? Three conditions must align: a rate cycle reversal, effective supply reduction, and sustained organic buying pressure from real usage. Historically, all three have never arrived simultaneously. Rising adoption strengthens the long-term thesis. But pricing that thesis requires the right macro foundation. $BTC

June 29 – July 3, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TSI - UTC + 3) 🎯 Week’s Main Theme A short, intense week: Markets close Thursday. Friday is a US holiday. Warsh speaks at the ECB symposium in Portugal — his first direct market contact since the dot plot. NFP is released one day early. June brought the Warsh shock, Iran deal, and sharp energy price drop. This week’s data will show how markets digested these three developments. 📅 Economic Calendar Wednesday – July 1 🇺🇸 16:30 TSI — Fed Chair Warsh, ECB Symposium (Portugal) Warsh’s first post-FOMC remarks. Markets will watch if he sustains the hawkish tone from the dot plot or signals that the Iran deal has improved the inflation outlook. One sentence can move the dollar and Treasury yields instantly. 🇺🇸 17:00 TSI — ISM Manufacturing PMI, June 2026 First business day of July. Manufacturing was in contraction (49.0) in May. This reading will show the first clear impact of lower energy costs from the Iran deal. The prices sub-index is especially important for Warsh’s rate-hike case. Thursday – July 2 🇺🇸 15:30 TSI — NFP, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings, June 2026 Normally released Friday; moved earlier due to July 4 holiday. Consensus: +172k. Jobless claims have been stable. Strong NFP with continued wage growth would support Warsh’s hawkish stance. Weak data would reinforce the “high inflation, slowing growth” narrative. Friday – July 3 🇺🇸 — US MARKETS CLOSED (July 4 Independence Day observed on Friday) ⚡ Crypto & Market Risks Warsh (Wed 16:30): The market’s current “Warsh will hike” pricing may continue or partially unwind. A dovish tone (e.g., noting the Iran deal lowered inflation expectations) could trigger sharp relief in risk assets. Hawkish comments would strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto. $BTC $XRP