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實盤交易
BTC 持有者
中頻交易者
7 年
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經翻譯
🔥 $BTC Regime Score is flashing an early signal most traders miss…
Bull/Bear structure is compressing
Regime score hovering near the critical equilibrium zone (~16%)
This zone historically marks transitions, not trends
When the score stays below zero → distribution & downside volatility
Sustained break above the regime baseline → trend expansion & momentum return.
Right now, $BTC is NOT trending it’s coiling
The longer the compression, the stronger the next impulse
Smart money doesn’t chase candles. They position before the regime flips.
#BTC #bitcoin #OnChainAnalysis #BTCPriceAnalysis
Bull/Bear structure is compressing
Regime score hovering near the critical equilibrium zone (~16%)
This zone historically marks transitions, not trends
When the score stays below zero → distribution & downside volatility
Sustained break above the regime baseline → trend expansion & momentum return.
Right now, $BTC is NOT trending it’s coiling
The longer the compression, the stronger the next impulse
Smart money doesn’t chase candles. They position before the regime flips.
#BTC #bitcoin #OnChainAnalysis #BTCPriceAnalysis
經翻譯
🔥 $BTC — Cycle Structure Update
This chart has accurately captured every major Bitcoin cycle top and bottom since 2011.
Once again, historical structure is beginning to align.
Key observations:
🔵 Previous cycle tops formed at progressively lower deviation bands: +3 → +2 → +1
🔵 Each cycle confirms diminishing returns over time
🔵 Price is currently trading near upper deviation zones
🔵 Long-term structure remains bullish, but risk is increasing
Scenarios to watch:
A sustained move higher could signal a late-cycle expansion phase
Rejection at current levels increases the probability of mean reversion toward lower bands
Markets tend to reward discipline, not emotion.
At this stage, structure and probabilities matter more than hype.
#BTC #bitcoin #bitcoinnextmove #predictons
This chart has accurately captured every major Bitcoin cycle top and bottom since 2011.
Once again, historical structure is beginning to align.
Key observations:
🔵 Previous cycle tops formed at progressively lower deviation bands: +3 → +2 → +1
🔵 Each cycle confirms diminishing returns over time
🔵 Price is currently trading near upper deviation zones
🔵 Long-term structure remains bullish, but risk is increasing
Scenarios to watch:
A sustained move higher could signal a late-cycle expansion phase
Rejection at current levels increases the probability of mean reversion toward lower bands
Markets tend to reward discipline, not emotion.
At this stage, structure and probabilities matter more than hype.
#BTC #bitcoin #bitcoinnextmove #predictons
查看原文
老實說，我厭倦了盯着圖表。
自2017年以來，我一直在這個市場。我看到當出租車司機告訴我買加密貨幣時的狂喜。我看到我的投資組合在一週內損失了75%時的絕望。我以爲我已經習慣了一切。
但這……感覺不同。
一切似乎都在上漲，機構來了，ETF上線了。然而，空氣中卻有一種奇怪的緊張感。這不是上一次牛市的輕鬆狂喜。就像是某種巨大變化的平靜前奏，要麼是改變人生的上漲，要麼……你知道的。
昨晚，我關掉了終端，沒帶手機去散步。有時候你需要提醒自己，生活不只是綠色和紅色的蠟燭。
回來後，我又買了一些$BTC
因爲儘管感到緊張，我相信從長遠來看會好的。
你現在是如何應對壓力的？你焦慮還是完全放鬆？
#BTC #MacroAnalysis
自2017年以來，我一直在這個市場。我看到當出租車司機告訴我買加密貨幣時的狂喜。我看到我的投資組合在一週內損失了75%時的絕望。我以爲我已經習慣了一切。
但這……感覺不同。
一切似乎都在上漲，機構來了，ETF上線了。然而，空氣中卻有一種奇怪的緊張感。這不是上一次牛市的輕鬆狂喜。就像是某種巨大變化的平靜前奏，要麼是改變人生的上漲，要麼……你知道的。
昨晚，我關掉了終端，沒帶手機去散步。有時候你需要提醒自己，生活不只是綠色和紅色的蠟燭。
回來後，我又買了一些$BTC
因爲儘管感到緊張，我相信從長遠來看會好的。
你現在是如何應對壓力的？你焦慮還是完全放鬆？
#BTC #MacroAnalysis
經翻譯
BTC Weekly RSI CRASHES to 35 - most oversold in almost 3 years! Last time we saw this? Jan 2023 at $15K-$17K bottoms. Down 36% from $126K ATH... Jelle says: "Pay attention - could be epic bottom OR more pain." History rhymes with massive bounces. You buying the dip or waiting?
Binance News
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比特幣的RSI在價格下跌中創下三年低點
根據Odaily的報道，比特幣的相對強弱指數（RSI）已達到極度‘超賣’狀態，標誌着其近三年來的最低水平。這種加密貨幣的價格從歷史最高點的126,000美元下跌了36%，降至80,500美元，顯著影響了更高時間框架上的RSI。在周線圖上，RSI從9月份的局部高點64下降到當前的35。這個水平在2023年1月最後一次出現，當時比特幣的交易價格在15,500美元和17,000美元之間。分析師Jelle指出，歷史上，當週RSI達到這個水平時，值得關注，因爲這可能表明接近底部或進一步顯著下跌的潛力。
經翻譯
📉 Market 24-Hour Recap: Crypto Slips Despite Cooling Inflation & Rate Cuts
Inflation cooled and rates were cut, but traders still sold risk assets. $BTC BTC (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/?cryptoId=1) is down about 2% near $88,100 as many lock in profits after the recent run, with added nerves around potential ETF-linked liquidation pressure if the dip deepens.
$ETH ETH (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/?cryptoId=1027) also followed the market lower, sliding over 2% to around $2,940 as selling spread across majors. On days like this, “good macro” doesn’t always matter - positioning and risk-off mood can overpower the headlines fast.
#BTC #ETH
#BitcoinPricePredictions #bitcoin
Inflation cooled and rates were cut, but traders still sold risk assets. $BTC BTC (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/?cryptoId=1) is down about 2% near $88,100 as many lock in profits after the recent run, with added nerves around potential ETF-linked liquidation pressure if the dip deepens.
$ETH ETH (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/?cryptoId=1027) also followed the market lower, sliding over 2% to around $2,940 as selling spread across majors. On days like this, “good macro” doesn’t always matter - positioning and risk-off mood can overpower the headlines fast.
#BTC #ETH
#BitcoinPricePredictions #bitcoin
經翻譯
📊 Brazil’s Largest Bank Recommends Bitcoin as a Portfolio Hedge
Brazil’s largest private bank, Itaú Unibanco, is advising investors to allocate 1%–3% of their portfolios to $BTC, framing it as a diversification tool rather than a speculative bet.
According to Renato Eid, head of beta strategies at Itaú Asset Management, Bitcoin should serve as a complementary asset, not a core holding. The focus is on long-term positioning, not market timing, with $BTC offering returns that are largely uncorrelated with domestic economic cycles.
The recommendation is closely tied to currency risk. After the Brazilian real hit record lows in late 2024, Itaú highlighted Bitcoin’s potential role as a partial hedge against FX volatility, alongside its function as a global store of value.
Itaú’s guidance references BITI11, a Brazil-listed Bitcoin ETF launched in partnership with Galaxy Digital. The fund currently manages over $115 million, providing local investors with regulated BTC exposure and international diversification.
The move reflects a broader institutional shift. Similar allocation ranges have been suggested by global banks, signaling that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed not as an outlier, but as a structured portfolio component in emerging-market risk management.
Question: Is a 1%–3% $BTC allocation becoming the new conservative baseline for institutional portfolios?
#BTC Price Analysis##Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #BTC
#Brazil
Brazil’s largest private bank, Itaú Unibanco, is advising investors to allocate 1%–3% of their portfolios to $BTC, framing it as a diversification tool rather than a speculative bet.
According to Renato Eid, head of beta strategies at Itaú Asset Management, Bitcoin should serve as a complementary asset, not a core holding. The focus is on long-term positioning, not market timing, with $BTC offering returns that are largely uncorrelated with domestic economic cycles.
The recommendation is closely tied to currency risk. After the Brazilian real hit record lows in late 2024, Itaú highlighted Bitcoin’s potential role as a partial hedge against FX volatility, alongside its function as a global store of value.
Itaú’s guidance references BITI11, a Brazil-listed Bitcoin ETF launched in partnership with Galaxy Digital. The fund currently manages over $115 million, providing local investors with regulated BTC exposure and international diversification.
The move reflects a broader institutional shift. Similar allocation ranges have been suggested by global banks, signaling that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed not as an outlier, but as a structured portfolio component in emerging-market risk management.
Question: Is a 1%–3% $BTC allocation becoming the new conservative baseline for institutional portfolios?
#BTC Price Analysis##Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #BTC
#Brazil
查看原文
有趣的想法，但這取決於許多假設。即使銀行使用XRP作爲橋樑，這並不意味着它的價值必須與銀行資產的規模相匹配。使用、交易量、流動性需求和監管更爲重要。日本仍然是一個值得關注的重要市場。
如果日本的每家銀行開始使用XRP，XRP可能會上漲到多高
$XRP 我們最近評估瞭如果日本的每家銀行開始利用該代幣的橋接能力進行銀行業務，XRP的價格可能會上升多少。
今天，XRP的交易價格在2美元左右，但大多數市場參與者認爲這個價格尚未反映出該加密資產的長期效用。他們相信更廣泛的採用可能會導致更高的估值，尤其是如果主要金融機構採用XRP的話。
一個可能對XRP產生影響的市場是日本金融市場，在這裏，Ripple和XRP與銀行和支付行業建立了長期的聯繫。
今天，XRP的交易價格在2美元左右，但大多數市場參與者認爲這個價格尚未反映出該加密資產的長期效用。他們相信更廣泛的採用可能會導致更高的估值，尤其是如果主要金融機構採用XRP的話。
一個可能對XRP產生影響的市場是日本金融市場，在這裏，Ripple和XRP與銀行和支付行業建立了長期的聯繫。
查看原文
現在，加密貨幣市場感覺謹慎。$BTC 持續在短期範圍內波動，似乎許多人在等待，而不是迅速行動。
重大經濟決策，尤其是來自中央銀行的決策，會影響人們對風險的感受。當不確定性存在時，加密貨幣通常會放緩。
對於初學者來說，這是一個很好的提醒：並不是每一刻都需要行動。有時候觀察也是學習的一部分。
#BTCPriceAnalysis #MacroInsights #CMC
重大經濟決策，尤其是來自中央銀行的決策，會影響人們對風險的感受。當不確定性存在時，加密貨幣通常會放緩。
對於初學者來說，這是一個很好的提醒：並不是每一刻都需要行動。有時候觀察也是學習的一部分。
#BTCPriceAnalysis #MacroInsights #CMC
查看原文
SOL 處於區間震盪，下面有強支撐，上面有堅定阻力。買方吸收賣壓，突破阻力信號看漲擴張；跌破支撐信號看跌延續。在此之前，SOL 處於整合狀態，等待明確的走勢。
$SOL 請 🥺 告訴我我在129買的，但似乎我將損失一百萬美元
告訴我現在該怎麼辦 😭 $SOL
{future}(SOLUSDT)
告訴我現在該怎麼辦 😭 $SOL
{future}(SOLUSDT)
查看原文
堅實的分析——比特幣仍然面臨主要阻力，因此在達到那個水平並具備強度之前，上漲空間有限。在下一次上漲之前，回調到中高70k區間是正常的。耐心和確認比現在猜測目標更重要。
BlockchainBaller
--
我對下一個 $BTC 的看法，邏輯相同，紀律相同
現在很多人都在問一個問題：
77k 和 150k 哪個先到？
與其猜測，不如好好看一下圖表。
在更高的時間框架上，$BTC 正在重複一個熟悉的模式。每一次主要的上漲都伴隨着深度的回調，進入強勁的需求區，然後再進行下一次擴張…
最近在頂部附近的拒絕再次顯示出相同的行爲，價格推向阻力位，賣方立即介入。
現在，BTC 正坐落在一個主要的阻力區下方。在該水平被強勢收復之前，向上空間依然有限。結構仍顯示出更低的高點，這意味着市場還沒有準備好完全轉向看漲。
在下方，有一個清晰的需求區域。如果價格失去當前支撐並乾淨地收盤在其下方，流動性將朝向中高 70k 區域的下方範圍開放。這將是一個在更大週期中的正常回調，而不是比特幣的終結。
對於看漲的延續，條件很簡單：BTC 必須收復前一個高點區域並以成交量保持它。沒有這個，呼叫 150k 只是希望，而不是分析。
那麼，聰明的舉動是什麼？
這不是一個乾淨的多頭區域，因爲我們在阻力下。
這不是一個乾淨的空頭區域，因爲我們在需求附近。
現在最好的位置是耐心。
底線：結構仍然是修正性的
兩種情景都是可能的
確認比預測更重要
無論是 BTC 首先回調以建立更強的基礎…
還是收復阻力並打開更高的路徑。
在圖表決定之前，這就是一個等待和觀察的區域。
邏輯優先。情感最後。
現在很多人都在問一個問題：
77k 和 150k 哪個先到？
與其猜測，不如好好看一下圖表。
在更高的時間框架上，$BTC 正在重複一個熟悉的模式。每一次主要的上漲都伴隨着深度的回調，進入強勁的需求區，然後再進行下一次擴張…
最近在頂部附近的拒絕再次顯示出相同的行爲，價格推向阻力位，賣方立即介入。
現在，BTC 正坐落在一個主要的阻力區下方。在該水平被強勢收復之前，向上空間依然有限。結構仍顯示出更低的高點，這意味着市場還沒有準備好完全轉向看漲。
在下方，有一個清晰的需求區域。如果價格失去當前支撐並乾淨地收盤在其下方，流動性將朝向中高 70k 區域的下方範圍開放。這將是一個在更大週期中的正常回調，而不是比特幣的終結。
對於看漲的延續，條件很簡單：BTC 必須收復前一個高點區域並以成交量保持它。沒有這個，呼叫 150k 只是希望，而不是分析。
那麼，聰明的舉動是什麼？
這不是一個乾淨的多頭區域，因爲我們在阻力下。
這不是一個乾淨的空頭區域，因爲我們在需求附近。
現在最好的位置是耐心。
底線：結構仍然是修正性的
兩種情景都是可能的
確認比預測更重要
無論是 BTC 首先回調以建立更強的基礎…
還是收復阻力並打開更高的路徑。
在圖表決定之前，這就是一個等待和觀察的區域。
邏輯優先。情感最後。
經翻譯
💥Why Holding Bitcoin Is No Longer Enough for Public Crypto Firms💥
Twenty One Capital (NYSE: XXI) launched with one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries — over 43,500 BTC on its balance sheet — but the market’s response was clear: holding Bitcoin alone isn’t enough to justify a valuation premium anymore. TradingView+1
Despite its record holdings, XXI shares slid nearly 20% on debut, trading close to the net value of its Bitcoin treasury rather than at a meaningful premium. That signals waning mNAV uplift for Bitcoin‑heavy equities. TradingView
Investors today are demanding visible revenue streams, operating leverage, and real cash‑flow narratives, not just passive exposure to BTC’s price moves. The market’s skepticism was amplified by broader SPAC fatigue and recent Bitcoin pullbacks, making balance‑sheet‑only stories less compelling. MEXC
This shift reflects a broader trend: public crypto firms now need clear business models and durable growth prospects — simply hoarding assets like Bitcoin isn’t enough to command investor confidence in the current environment.#BTC #BITCOIN2025 #bitcoin
https://coinmarketcap.com/community/?cryptoId=1
Twenty One Capital (NYSE: XXI) launched with one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries — over 43,500 BTC on its balance sheet — but the market’s response was clear: holding Bitcoin alone isn’t enough to justify a valuation premium anymore. TradingView+1
Despite its record holdings, XXI shares slid nearly 20% on debut, trading close to the net value of its Bitcoin treasury rather than at a meaningful premium. That signals waning mNAV uplift for Bitcoin‑heavy equities. TradingView
Investors today are demanding visible revenue streams, operating leverage, and real cash‑flow narratives, not just passive exposure to BTC’s price moves. The market’s skepticism was amplified by broader SPAC fatigue and recent Bitcoin pullbacks, making balance‑sheet‑only stories less compelling. MEXC
This shift reflects a broader trend: public crypto firms now need clear business models and durable growth prospects — simply hoarding assets like Bitcoin isn’t enough to command investor confidence in the current environment.#BTC #BITCOIN2025 #bitcoin
https://coinmarketcap.com/community/?cryptoId=1
經翻譯
🇺🇸 US Congress pauses crypto regulation $BTCregulation
US Congress has decided to delay work on the crypto market structure bill until next year. While the market is searching for positive signals, lawmakers are not in a hurry. No urgency, no pressure, just business as usual in Washington.
For now, crypto continues to operate without new rules, keeping the market in wait-and-see mode.
#BTC Price Analysis##Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?
US Congress has decided to delay work on the crypto market structure bill until next year. While the market is searching for positive signals, lawmakers are not in a hurry. No urgency, no pressure, just business as usual in Washington.
For now, crypto continues to operate without new rules, keeping the market in wait-and-see mode.
#BTC Price Analysis##Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?
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