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lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.   This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.   So far, it’s been pretty bang on.   Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time. No, it won’t be perfect, but assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.   As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.   In that world, the 4-year cycle is dead.   Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle, as outlined in our work at GMI, which post-COVID was pushed out by one year. In our view, the 4-year cycle is now officially broken because the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased. And the bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth. Another thing to keep in mind is that bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in. Finally, let me repeat what I said when I first posted this chart last month.   If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along...$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) #USNonFarmPayrollReport #BinanceBlockchainWeek #TrumpTariffs
lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.
 
This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.
 
So far, it’s been pretty bang on.
 
Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time.

No, it won’t be perfect, but assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.
 
As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.
 
In that world, the 4-year cycle is dead.
 
Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle, as outlined in our work at GMI, which post-COVID was pushed out by one year.

In our view, the 4-year cycle is now officially broken because the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.

And the bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth.

Another thing to keep in mind is that bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.

Finally, let me repeat what I said when I first posted this chart last month.
 
If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along...$BTC
$ETH
#USNonFarmPayrollReport #BinanceBlockchainWeek #TrumpTariffs
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經翻譯
🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SAID U.S. CITIZENS WILL RECEIVE THE BIGGEST TAX REFUNDS OF ALL TIME IN 2026 BULLISH FOR STOCKS AND CRYPTO 🔥$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) #CPIWatch #TrumpTariffs
🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SAID U.S. CITIZENS WILL RECEIVE THE BIGGEST TAX REFUNDS OF ALL TIME IN 2026

BULLISH FOR STOCKS AND CRYPTO 🔥$BTC
#CPIWatch #TrumpTariffs
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SPACEX IPO 即將到來 估值:高達 $1.5 萬億 時間表:最早在 2026 年 融資:$25B+ 谷歌的大勝利 早期投資:約 $900M IPO 時的潛在價值:$110B+ 爲什麼這很重要: 星鏈全球互聯網 人工智能基礎設施 深空任務 如果這個上市,它將成爲歷史上最大的 IPO 之一。 $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) #USNonFarmPayrollReport #USJobsData #TrumpTariffs
SPACEX IPO 即將到來

估值:高達 $1.5 萬億
時間表:最早在 2026 年
融資:$25B+

谷歌的大勝利
早期投資:約 $900M
IPO 時的潛在價值:$110B+

爲什麼這很重要:
星鏈全球互聯網
人工智能基礎設施
深空任務

如果這個上市,它將成爲歷史上最大的 IPO 之一。
$BTC
#USNonFarmPayrollReport #USJobsData #TrumpTariffs
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🚨 突發 貝萊德和CEX全力以赴 $BTC 在特朗普宣佈之前的拉昇! 幣安購買了5,961 BTC Coinbase購買了3,298 BTC OKX購買了3,159 BTC WINTERMUTE購買了3,091 BTC 其他人購買了5,381 BTC 偉大的牛市即將來臨嗎?? 👀 {future}(BTCUSDT) #BinanceBlockchainWeek #USNonFarmPayrollReport
🚨 突發

貝萊德和CEX全力以赴 $BTC 在特朗普宣佈之前的拉昇!

幣安購買了5,961 BTC
Coinbase購買了3,298 BTC
OKX購買了3,159 BTC
WINTERMUTE購買了3,091 BTC
其他人購買了5,381 BTC

偉大的牛市即將來臨嗎?? 👀

#BinanceBlockchainWeek #USNonFarmPayrollReport
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我們將在12月17日對我們的Spot平臺進行系統升級和UTF-8實施測試。 重要提示:此次升級不會影響現貨交易或任何相關功能。 在測試階段,用戶可能會看到測試代幣和交易對出現。這是正常和常規的。請注意,任何在鏈上創建的具有相同或相似測試代幣名稱的代幣都不被Binance認可。 ⚠️ 在交易之前,請務必進行自己的研究! #BinanceUpdate #CPIWatch #USNonFarmPayrollReport $BNB {future}(BNBUSDT)
我們將在12月17日對我們的Spot平臺進行系統升級和UTF-8實施測試。

重要提示:此次升級不會影響現貨交易或任何相關功能。

在測試階段,用戶可能會看到測試代幣和交易對出現。這是正常和常規的。請注意,任何在鏈上創建的具有相同或相似測試代幣名稱的代幣都不被Binance認可。

⚠️ 在交易之前,請務必進行自己的研究!
#BinanceUpdate #CPIWatch #USNonFarmPayrollReport $BNB
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