Analysis of the latest trends in gold market
On Wednesday morning in Asia, spot gold once again stabilized at the $4500 per ounce mark. Various parties, including Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, are mediating to push U.S. and Iranian officials to hold talks within the next 48 hours. Gold has recently experienced a significant decline of over 20% from its early-year peak, and on Tuesday (March 25), it welcomed a volatile rebound, closing up 1.5% at $4474.26 per ounce. This rebound is not just a simple trend reversal but the result of intense competition between bulls and bears intertwined with geopolitical situations and macro-financial environments. On one side, there is diplomatic contact between the U.S. and Iran under tense circumstances, while on the other side, fluctuations in crude oil have led to changes in inflation and interest rate expectations. Gold is currently at a critical decision-making point.
Yesterday, gold continued its rebound trend, opening at 4406.2, first rising to 4448.8, then quickly retracing. The daily low touched 4404.3, after which it surged again, reaching a maximum of 4485.4 before entering consolidation, ultimately closing at 4472.5, forming a pregnant line hammer pattern on the daily chart. Today, gold continues to rise, with Tuesday's daily close forming an entity candlestick with a lower shadow, indicating that the short-term upward momentum is likely to continue. The first breakout to watch is at 4610 dollars, which is also the position of the 5-day moving average on the daily chart. After breaking through, further upward movement towards the 4700 whole number mark can be anticipated.
On the 4-hour level, gold moving averages show a bullish arrangement, with rebound momentum continuously releasing. A strong short-term support has formed around 4420 dollars, which can quickly recover after multiple retests, and the downward space has basically been sealed. Currently, gold prices are gradually approaching 4600 dollars, a position that is both a previous breakout point and an important psychological pressure point. After breaking through, upward space will further open up. Even if it faces short-term pressure, it is merely a power accumulation adjustment during the rebound process and will not change the overall strong trend. Today, it appears that gold prices will continue to oscillate higher and run strongly, likely testing the 4600-4650 dollar resistance, with the trend mainly focusing on power accumulation during pullbacks and steady upward movement. Overall, for today's short-term operations, Lao Yu suggests primarily going long on pullbacks and supplementing with shorts on rebounds, with short-term resistance focused on the 4630-4680 line above and short-term support targeted at the 4540-4490 line below.
Latest analysis of crude oil market trends
On Wednesday morning in Asia, U.S. crude oil fell nearly 4%, currently trading around 88.20 dollars per barrel. The U.S. proposed a one-month ceasefire plan and plans to negotiate a 15-point agreement with Iran to facilitate an end to the conflict. Recently, international crude oil has shown a significant pullback, primarily due to the easing situation in the Middle East. The U.S. submitted about 15 points of conflict resolution proposals to Iran, while also suggesting a one-month ceasefire to pave the way for subsequent negotiations. This news directly changed market expectations, and the risk premium that had risen due to the escalation of the situation began to concentrate and decline.
From the daily perspective, previously influenced by geopolitical tensions, oil prices surged above 110 dollars, with moving averages overall diverging upwards. The medium-term trend remains upward, and bulls performed strongly during previous high-level fluctuations, maintaining a bullish outlook in the medium term. However, in the short-term 1-hour trend, oil prices are consolidating at low levels, with a second dip to previous lows, and the short-term downward trend remains unchanged. The MACD indicator is below the zero line and has crossed downwards, with bearish strength being more dominant. It is expected that crude oil will continue to pull back and adjust throughout the day. Overall, based on today's operations, Lao Yu suggests primarily shorting on rebounds and supplementing with long positions on pullbacks, with short-term resistance focused on the 95.0-100.0 line above and short-term support on the 83.0-78.0 line below.