资深分析师--老余

Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis:
On Tuesday, after the European market opened, spot gold fell slightly, fluctuating around $4780 per ounce. Yesterday, gold was very volatile, first falling and then rising. The price of gold once dropped to $4737.04, but after that, it slowly rose back. The global financial market is very tense now, and gold, as a safe-haven asset, has its price fluctuations affecting everyone's heart. On Monday (April 20), gold showed a clear V-shaped reversal, dropping to a one-week low during the session, and then rebounding strongly, which is consistent with what Lao Yu mentioned in yesterday's article. It ultimately closed at $4820.63, only down about 0.28% for the day.

On Tuesday morning, spot gold fluctuated little, with the current price hovering around $4820 per ounce. The global financial markets are very tense right now, and gold, as the safest haven asset, has its price movements closely watched. On Monday (April 19), gold's performance was quite exciting, first dropping to a one-week low, then rebounding strongly. This wave of ups and downs was mainly influenced by geopolitical tensions, changes in the dollar's performance, and fluctuations in the global energy market.
From a daily perspective, gold is oscillating back and forth at a high level, with the 5/10/20-day moving averages still trending upward. The medium-term upward trend remains intact, but the momentum for rising has clearly weakened. Recently, gold has been at the historical high range of $4870-$4920, and it has attempted to break through three times without success, creating a strong resistance level here. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI(14) has dropped to around 65, which, while not in an overbought state, still indicates strength; the MACD red bars are getting shorter, showing a divergence signal, indicating short-term pressure for a pullback, with key support at $4740-$4750 (the Monday low + 10-day moving average overlap). If it falls below here, the price may drop to $4700.

On Monday, international gold prices opened with a significant drop, falling more than 60 dollars, a decrease of 1.5%, with the lowest point around 4737 dollars. Last Friday, prices were strong, but on Monday, they were directly pushed back down, mainly due to incidents in the Middle East over the weekend: the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, and the U.S. military detained an Iranian ship in the Gulf of Oman and opened fire. Iran responded defiantly, stating it would not participate in the second round of negotiations and would seek revenge. These events have raised concerns about rising energy prices and inflation, leading to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which caused a surge in the dollar and severely pressured gold prices.

This week, gold first fell and then rose, overall oscillating at a high level. It dropped to 4640 at the beginning of the week and then began to rebound, reaching a high of around 4890. Most of this week, it fluctuated slightly in the range of 4750-4870, closing at 4833 dollars on Friday, with an increase of 0.77% for the week. Next week, there are important data and events such as the preliminary value of the U.S. April manufacturing PMI and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, along with the unstable situation in the Middle East, which may likely lead to significant fluctuations in gold prices. The Middle East situation over the weekend is key to influencing market trends. Israel and Lebanon have reached a 10-day temporary ceasefire, and the U.S. and Iran are also preparing to renegotiate in Pakistan, leading to a slight cooling of market risk aversion. However, caution is warranted as negotiations may collapse and lead to escalating conflicts. If tensions rise, safe-haven funds will flood in, and gold prices may open high and rise sharply; if the situation continues to ease, risk aversion may decrease, and gold prices will face the risk of a pullback. Geopolitical conflicts will directly affect Monday's opening, and everyone should be prepared for potential price gaps.

Latest trend analysis of gold prices:
On Thursday morning, spot gold rose slightly, with the current price around $4822 per ounce, an increase of about 0.6%. The US dollar has continued to weaken, providing ongoing support for gold prices. After surging to a one-month high of $4871.28 on Wednesday, gold quickly fell back, finally closing around $4790, a nearly 1% drop in one day; US futures gold also fell by 0.5%, closing at $4823.60. In just one day, gold shifted from a safe-haven favorite to a target for profit-taking, primarily because Trump stated that 'the Iran war is nearing its end,' triggering a chain reaction in the market.

April 15 Gold and Crude Oil Evening Market Trend Analysis and Latest Exclusive Suggestions for European and American Operations
Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:
Spot gold surged to its highest point in nearly four weeks on Wednesday morning before beginning to fluctuate, hovering below $4850, and the pace of increase has temporarily slowed. Although the short-term rise has stalled, the overall trend is still bullish, mainly due to the weakening dollar and changes in market interest rate expectations, which have provided support for gold. The key reason for this wave of gold rise is the pressure on the dollar. Recently, the market feels that the US-Iran relationship may ease, with the US sending out many positive signals. Vice President Pence stated that he would push for a more comprehensive agreement to help Iran reintegrate into the global economy; UN Secretary-General Guterres also mentioned that the US and Iran are likely to restart negotiations. These messages have improved market risk sentiment, causing the dollar to fall to its lowest point since early March, naturally providing support for gold.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Monday morning, gold once fell to around $4640, but quickly rebounded and is now fluctuating around $4735. Recent U.S. economic data has been good, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026 have decreased from 3-4 times at the beginning of the year to 2 times or even less. High interest rates have been maintained, and because gold does not yield interest, the holding cost is high, making funds more willing to buy U.S. Treasury bonds for interest, which has kept gold prices suppressed.
The global market has been disrupted again by the situation in the Middle East. Initially, everyone thought that the U.S.-Iran negotiations could ease tensions, but the talks in Pakistan over the weekend lasted a long time and ultimately broke down, leading the U.S. to directly order the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, gold plummeted by 2.3%, erasing all the gains from last week. Last week, the U.S. and Iran were briefly on ceasefire, and the market had a sigh of relief, with the dollar falling for five consecutive days, a weekly drop of 1.5%, and gold rebounding by 1.56%, closing around $4749. Everyone thought the conflict would gradually ease, and inflationary pressures would also decrease. The People's Bank of China bought 4.98 tons of gold in March, continuing a streak of 17 months of purchases, and this month’s purchases exceeded those of the past 13 months. Central banks worldwide are reducing their dollar holdings and diversifying reserves, with strong buying below $4600, preventing a deep drop in gold prices.

Latest trend analysis of gold market:
On Monday morning, spot gold plummeted more than 2%, and the current price is around $4720 per ounce. The negotiations between the United States and Iran over the weekend failed, mainly stuck on three issues: whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened, how to control Iran's enriched uranium, and how to unfreeze Iran's overseas assets. After the breakdown of talks, both sides hardened their stance: the United States announced that it would begin to blockade Iranian ports starting on the 13th, and Trump is also considering a small-scale strike against Iran; the geopolitical situation suddenly became tense again, and everyone feels that the possibility of a Fed rate cut has decreased, with the market now believing that the probability of maintaining the interest rate in April is as high as 98.4%. Additionally, the U.S. March CPI data was released, showing the largest month-on-month increase in nearly four years, with inflation remaining relatively high, which also suppressed gold prices. Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 1.6% to $76.26, while platinum and palladium fell slightly, but overall this week has seen increases.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Thursday, the European market opened, and spot gold slightly declined, now priced around $4720; Lao Yu believes that gold is likely to fluctuate back and forth in the short term. In the long term, due to geopolitical instability and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, gold remains worth paying attention to. Everyone should closely monitor this week's U.S. inflation data and the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Pakistan. On Wednesday (April 8), the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, causing gold to surge over 3%, peaking at $4856; the ceasefire news drove oil prices below $100, weakened the dollar, and eased inflationary pressures, leading the market to bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, benefiting gold. Lao Yu feels that this rise is more about the market breathing a sigh of relief, but there are still many variables in the negotiations, and whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened is key.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Thursday morning in the Asian market, spot gold fell slightly, currently around $4700/ounce; market views suggest that gold may fluctuate back and forth in the short term, while in the medium to long term, there is still room for growth amidst unstable geopolitical situations and the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Attention should be paid to this week’s U.S. inflation data and the latest developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations. After quickly retreating from a nearly three-week high, gold is mainly reacting to the market's reassessment of whether the ceasefire agreement can be sustained and the actual impact of Federal Reserve policies. After all, Israel is still taking action, and Iran may again block the Strait; the cooling of inflation is likely to be only temporary.

Latest gold market trend analysis
After the opening of the Wednesday Asian market, spot gold surged strongly, with the current price stabilizing above $4810 per ounce, a short-term increase of over 2%, as bulls strongly broke through the previous consolidation range. The core driver of this round of gold's rise is the continuous escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Iran firmly rejecting ceasefire proposals and increasing transit control in the Strait of Hormuz intensifying market risk aversion. Coupled with the ongoing cooling of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, safe-haven buying has surged, driving gold prices to rise violently.
During the overnight US market session, gold prices started a one-sided rally from a low of 4607, reaching a peak near 4857, completely breaking the 4500-4800 consolidation pattern. The daily chart shows a strong bullish close, with moving averages in a bullish arrangement, establishing a medium-term bullish trend. The 4-hour chart shows a one-sided upward trend, with prices stabilizing above the MA5 and MA10 moving average supports. The MACD golden cross is expanding, and bullish momentum is sufficient, making any short-term pullback a buying opportunity.

Latest gold market trend analysis
After the European market opened on Tuesday, spot gold slightly rose, with prices fluctuating around $4680 per ounce. The current market for gold is crucial; on one hand, the Middle East has been in conflict for nearly six weeks, and everyone is worried about risks and wants to buy gold as a safe haven; on the other hand, the fighting is causing prices to rise, which may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain or even tighten monetary policy, which is very unfavorable for gold prices. The competition between bulls and bears is intense, and although the surface volatility is small, there is actually a complex game of war, inflation, and interest rates behind it.
On the same day, Iran directly rejected the temporary ceasefire proposal from the United States, providing a ten-point plan through Pakistan, demanding a permanent ceasefire, lifting sanctions, and proposing to open the Strait of Hormuz with a transit fee of $2 million per ship. Trump's deadline is approaching (8 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday, which is 8 AM Beijing Time on Wednesday), the expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have significantly decreased, and the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and interest rate pressure makes it difficult to judge the short-term trend of gold. Everyone should focus on this week's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and CPI data, paying attention to whether the 4600-4700 range can be broken.

Latest trend analysis of gold prices:
On Monday, gold opened by moving downwards, mainly because last Friday's U.S. employment data was better than expected, coupled with Trump's remarks that if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, Iran's energy facilities will be attacked. Oil prices opened higher, causing gold prices to be suppressed initially. However, the market's concerns about rising oil prices and increasing inflation are not that strong, and combined with the overall slowdown in wage growth in March, gold prices did not fall as much as everyone expected in the morning.
This week, the focus is on the U.S. March CPI data, with the market expecting the data to rise significantly. If this is the case, the expectations for rising inflation will be stronger, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates will decrease significantly. Some may even discuss raising interest rates, and gold prices could drop to 4460 or 4300. If the data is worse than expected, gold prices will fluctuate; if it is lower than the previous value, there will be a significant rebound, potentially reaching 4840 or 5000.

Latest trend analysis of gold prices:
On Monday, international gold opened lower, mainly because last Friday's unemployment rate and non-farm data were better than expected. Additionally, Trump stated that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, he will strike Iran's energy facilities. This directly pushed oil prices up, causing gold prices to be suppressed initially. However, the concern about rising oil prices and inflation is not as strong for gold, and since the year-on-year and month-on-month average wage for March has overall decreased, gold prices did not drop as much as everyone expected in the early trading.
This week, the focus is on the U.S. March CPI year-on-year and month-on-month data. The market currently believes that the data will rise significantly. If this is the case, it will make everyone think that inflation is about to rise again, greatly reducing the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates this year. Some may even discuss raising interest rates, which would severely suppress gold prices, possibly dropping to 4460 or 4300. Conversely, if the data does not meet expectations, gold prices will fluctuate; if they are similar to or lower than the previous value, gold prices will surge, with a chance to reach 4840 or 5000.

Latest trend analysis of gold market
On Thursday, in the Asian market's early session, spot gold continued its upward trend. As of 07:31, it once refreshed the highest point since March 19 at $4800.33 per ounce, with an increase of about 0.89%. Boosted by the dual factors of a weaker dollar and easing expectations in the Middle East situation, gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on Wednesday (April 1), with spot gold reaching a high of $4792, ultimately closing up 1.9% at $4758 per ounce, while U.S. futures gold surged 2.9% to $4813.10. Currently, investors are closely focused on the upcoming nationwide speech by Trump. This week, attention will shift to Friday's March non-farm payroll report, with economists predicting the addition of 60,000 jobs. If the labor market shows a sharp deterioration, it will reignite expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Previously, the market had largely ruled out the possibility of rate cuts due to rising oil prices and inflation concerns from the Iran war.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Tuesday morning in the European market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly, currently trading around $4550 per ounce. On Monday (March 30), spot gold rose slightly for the second consecutive trading day, with an increase of about 0.36%, closing at approximately $4510 per ounce, and hitting as high as $4580 during the session; U.S. futures gold also rose by 0.7%, settling at $4557.50. However, despite a slight recovery in short-term risk aversion, gold has accumulated a decline of more than 14% in March so far, poised to record its worst monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis. Behind this abnormal trend is a complex game intertwined with escalating Middle East conflicts and macroeconomic pressures. The war has driven up oil prices and intensified inflation fears, while the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance, leading to a sharp adjustment in market expectations for the interest rate path. Investors are generally concerned about whether the short-term rebound in gold can be sustained and whether it will regain upward momentum in the long term. On this trading day, the U.S. February JOLTs job openings data will be released, which investors need to pay attention to.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Tuesday morning, gold surged to $4619 and is currently fluctuating around $4590. Yesterday, gold prices rose for the second consecutive day, primarily due to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which have heightened risk aversion among investors. Although the market now believes that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates this year, gold has still increased. Yesterday, spot gold closed up 0.6%, reaching $4518.57 per ounce, while U.S. futures gold rose by 0.7% to $4557.50. The main reason is the tense situation in the Middle East, with Trump warning Iran that if it does not open the Strait of Hormuz, its oil wells and power plants will be destroyed. Iran has also retaliated, stating that the U.S. proposal is unrealistic and has fired missiles at Israel, which has raised concerns about inflation and rising interest rates, leading to a stronger safe-haven demand for gold.

Latest trend analysis of gold prices:
On Monday during the late session of the Asian market, spot gold first fell and then rose, currently in a rebound repair stage, with short-term trends relatively volatile, currently trading around $4525 per ounce, a daily increase of about 0.7%. The United States may take military action against Iran's uranium materials, significantly escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. If the conflict escalates, it will directly boost market risk-averse sentiment, providing strong support for gold; at the same time, the increase in nuclear proliferation risks and the potential extension of the war timeline may keep gold prices high or further rise in the medium to long term. Conversely, if diplomatic solutions are reached, risk-averse demand may temporarily decline.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Monday morning, the dollar continued to strengthen, reaching a new high in over half a month with five consecutive days of gains. Gold opened high around 4514 and then began to pull back, now down to around 4450, a nearly 1% drop. Although the tense situation in the Middle East has brought safe-haven buying, gold prices are still under downward pressure. Last week, gold experienced a large fluctuation of 'first drop then rise', affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, dropping to a low of 4098; later, due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict and continuous gold purchases by central banks, combined with a technical rebound from oversold conditions, gold prices gradually recovered, closing at around 4491 on Friday, with the weekly candlestick showing a long lower shadow, indicating strong buying support below. As the new week begins, the market is relatively cautious, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth in a key range, focusing on whether the news and key positions can break through.

Gold Price Trend Analysis for Next Week:
This week, the gold price fluctuated over $300, first dropping sharply and then rebounding, overall stabilizing. At the beginning of the week, the gold price continued to fall, reaching a low of 4351, after which it began a strong rebound, with a daily increase of 3.18% on the 25th, the largest increase in recent days; however, the good times did not last long, as there was another drop of over 2% on the 26th, which erased a significant portion of the previous day's gains; in the last two days, the gold price gradually stabilized, rebounding slightly on key support levels, ultimately closing the week up. The main forces at play are two opposing factors: the Federal Reserve's tough stance, delayed interest rate cuts, and a strong dollar pressuring gold prices; but the tense situation in the Middle East is supporting gold prices due to safe-haven demand.