3.9 Gold and Oil Price Surge and Fall Latest Market Trend Analysis and Evening Long and Short Trading Suggestions
Latest Gold Market Analysis
Last Friday, the non-farm payroll data significantly underperformed expectations, with the U.S. February non-farm employment decreasing by 92,000, far below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. This briefly drove gold prices up by 1.77%, closing at $5171.01. However, affected by a strong dollar and the situation in the Middle East, gold recorded its first weekly decline in five weeks, with a total drop of about 2% for the week.
From a technical perspective, this week we will focus on CPI, PCE data, and geopolitical situations, paying attention to the interconnected trends of gold, the dollar, and crude oil. After the non-farm report, gold was expected to have a rebound structure, but the strong dollar suppressed the upward movement, opening high and then falling back into the consolidation range.
Currently, gold is in a small range of 5000—5200 and a large range of 4850—5350, with the daily Bollinger Bands converging, showing a tendency towards weak fluctuation. After a decline in the morning session, the short-term shape is relatively weak, mainly looking at whether the 5000 support can hold: if it does not break, we will see a range rebound, with resistance above at 5120, 5200; if it breaks, we will look further towards 4850.
In summary, the evening trading strategy for gold: mainly short on rebounds, with some long on pullbacks, watching for resistance at 5140—5190 above, and support at 5050—5000 below.
Latest Oil Market Analysis
On Monday during the Asian session, international oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude oil rising over 20% during the session, reaching $111 per barrel, a new high since July 2022; Brent crude oil also strengthened, breaking through $111.
Last week, crude oil's cumulative increase reached 36%, with a single-day rise of about 12% last Friday, mainly due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, leading to heightened market concerns about supply and a rapid rise in geopolitical risk premium.
At the daily level, crude oil surged above $110 due to news-driven stimulation, with moving averages in a bullish arrangement, indicating an upward medium-term trend and sufficient bullish momentum. The short-term 1-hour cycle continues to rise, with indicators strong, maintaining a bullish pattern throughout the day.
In summary, the evening trading strategy for crude oil: mainly long on pullbacks, with some short on rebounds, watching for resistance at 115.0—120.0 above, and support at 100.0—95.0 below. #黄金下跌 $XAU