Latest gold market trend analysis:

On Thursday morning in the Asian market, spot gold fell slightly, currently around $4700/ounce; market views suggest that gold may fluctuate back and forth in the short term, while in the medium to long term, there is still room for growth amidst unstable geopolitical situations and the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Attention should be paid to this week’s U.S. inflation data and the latest developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations. After quickly retreating from a nearly three-week high, gold is mainly reacting to the market's reassessment of whether the ceasefire agreement can be sustained and the actual impact of Federal Reserve policies. After all, Israel is still taking action, and Iran may again block the Strait; the cooling of inflation is likely to be only temporary.

From the current market perspective, the daily level for gold is overall strong, with prices steadily above the moving averages, showing no signs of top divergence. The RSI indicator is also in the normal range, without being overbought, and there is strong support near 4600. Overall, it is still trending upward. The 4-hour level is similarly strong, with prices gradually rising supported by the short-term moving averages, and lows constantly being raised. This current upward surge followed by a pullback is merely a short-term adjustment and has not damaged the bullish structure of the daily and 4-hour charts. As long as the volume can keep up, a breakout of previous resistance is expected, continuing the rebound, and technically, the overall bullish advantage remains. The 1-hour level is temporarily weak, with prices below the short-term moving averages, MACD green bars slightly expanding, and RSI below 50, indicating short-term bearish strength. However, this is merely a short-term correction, and the overall upward structure remains intact, which is a normal adjustment.

The current core support level for spot gold is at 4600, this position has been tested multiple times before, and the support strength is very strong, with auxiliary support at 4680. If it breaks below, be careful of continued short-term corrections. On the resistance side, first look at the strong resistance zone at 4860, which is the high point of the morning session where pressure is concentrated. Once broken, it will open up more room for upward movement, followed by resistance near 4920, which requires a significant breakout to continue rising. In terms of operations, one can go long near the support level, and avoid blindly chasing long positions near the resistance level, strictly control risks, and follow the current bullish trend. Overall, today’s short-term operational strategy for gold suggests focusing on short positions when rebounding, and going long when prices pull back. The short-term focus on the upper side is on the resistance at 4750-4800, and on the lower side, the short-term focus is on the support at 4650-4600.

Latest trend analysis of crude oil market:

On Thursday morning in the Asian market, after US crude oil fell to around 91 dollars per barrel, it rebounded over 2.5%, currently around 96.80 dollars per barrel. Today, oil prices may continue to rise. International oil prices plummeted on Wednesday, with both WTI and Brent crude falling below the 100-dollar mark: Brent crude fell by 13.29% to 94.75 dollars, and WTI crude plunged by 16.41% to 94.41 dollars, mainly influenced by the news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week, far exceeding the expected 701,000 barrels, which also put pressure on oil prices.

From the daily chart, crude oil previously rose above 110 dollars due to geopolitical tensions, with moving averages diverging upwards. The medium-term trend is still upward, with high volatility, and bullish strength remains strong, maintaining a bullish outlook in the medium term. In the short term (1 hour), crude oil has dropped significantly, falling directly from above 110 to around 70. The short-term moving averages are trending downwards, indicating a bearish trend; MACD has crossed below the zero line, showing strong bearish strength. It is expected that today crude oil will oscillate and retreat below 100 dollars. Overall, today’s operational strategy for crude oil suggests focusing on short positions when rebounding, and going long when prices pull back. The short-term focus on the upper side is on the resistance at 105.0-110.0, and on the lower side, the short-term focus is on the support at 92.0-87.0.#黄金 $XAU