Gold latest trend analysis:

On Wednesday morning in Asia, spot gold prices are around $4588 per ounce. Yesterday, gold prices ticked up a bit, and today they are likely to push towards $4600 per ounce. The ceasefire between the US and Iran is still holding, and Trump mentioned a temporary pause on the 'Free Plan.' Plus, many traders are buying in at these lower prices, providing some support for gold. However, the situation in the Middle East remains unstable, with the UAE reporting missile and drone attacks from Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz has been mostly impassable since late February. Although there hasn't been any direct conflict, energy prices remain high, which can drive up inflation. This might delay the central bank's rate cuts, and with higher interest rates, the allure of gold as a non-yielding asset diminishes. For the bulls to regain momentum, significant positive news is required, but the demand for hedging against inflation and ongoing purchases by various central banks keep gold prices from dropping too sharply. Everyone is now waiting for the US employment data later this week to gauge whether the Fed will adjust its policies.

From the daily level, gold's recent trend is clearly weak. Gold prices have fallen from the previous highs and have broken below a key short-term range, leading to an overall downward trend. The daily close formed a bearish candle with upper and lower shadows, indicating heavy selling pressure above, while $4500 is a crucial support level below. Previously, gold prices fell to this level and rebounded to around $4650, but couldn't break through. Now that it's back at this level, whether it can hold here is key for future movements. If $4500 doesn't hold, gold is likely to drop to $4400-$4350; if it can hold, there’s a chance for a rebound.

The four-hour cycle for gold is very clear, showing a step-by-step decline, with weak rebound strength. Prices are consistently moving within a downward channel. Each rebound fails to exceed the previous highs, and any short-term gains are merely technical corrections without signals of a trend reversal. Currently, gold prices are oscillating between $4500 and $4650, with strong resistance at $4580-$4600. If it can't break through, gold will likely continue to oscillate weakly; if it does break, it could push towards $4650. Overall, for today’s short-term strategy, I recommend focusing on buying on dips while also considering selling on rebounds. Key short-term resistance to watch is around $4650-$4700, and support is around $4570-$4520.

Latest trend analysis for crude oil:

On Wednesday morning in Asia, oil prices are falling, with WTI crude down over 2%, dropping back below $100/barrel. Yesterday, oil prices fell about 4%, with Brent crude closing at $109.87/barrel and WTI at $102.27/barrel. This is mainly due to the U.S. stating that the fragile ceasefire with Iran is still in effect, and two U.S. commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz under the escort of U.S. military ships. Although the UAE claims to have been attacked by Iran, Iran denies this, but shipping company Maersk has confirmed that one U.S. commercial vessel has already left the Gulf.

From the daily candlestick chart, oil prices have broken below the moving average, indicating a potential shift in the mid-term trend. The current big trend is heading downwards, with the MACD indicator turning down from a high position, signaling increasing bearish strength. It's highly likely that we will see a high position retracement adjustment in the mid-term. The one-hour short-term trend for crude oil is oscillating upwards, with prices firmly above $100, and the moving averages are in a bullish alignment, indicating an upward short-term trend. In the early session, oil prices are still on an upward trajectory, and the pullback won't be too significant. Today, crude oil is expected to continue oscillating upwards. Overall, for today's strategy, I recommend focusing on buying on dips while also considering selling on rebounds. Watch for short-term resistance around the 105.0-110.0 range, and support around 96.0-91.0.#黄金 $XAU