美债收益率

U.S. Treasury yields have all fallen back, and expectations for further easing from the Federal Reserve are rising.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has finally shown a comprehensive decline, with the 5-year yield falling by nearly 1%, marking a rare extent in recent times. This intense volatility clearly reflects the market's optimistic expectations for further easing policies from the Federal Reserve—investors are betting on more room for interest rate cuts to cope with potential signals of economic slowdown.

It is expected that tonight's non-farm payroll data will be weak, which will further strengthen the logic of the Federal Reserve turning to a more aggressive easing stance. If the job market shows signs of weakness, it will provide the Federal Reserve with the "ammunition" for policy adjustments, thereby boosting short-term sentiment for risk assets. In the short term, the U.S. stock market may welcome a wave of technical rebounds to digest recent pullback pressure.

However, in the medium to long term, a more notable "barometer" to watch is the yen exchange rate: if the yen strengthens against the dollar forming a clear upward trend (for example, breaking through key resistance levels), this will amplify global liquidity tightening concerns, dominating cross-asset allocation in the next 1-3 months. Investors are advised to closely monitor the yen's movements as a leading indicator of risk appetite reversal.

#美联储降息 #美债收益率 #非农数据