美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

Tonight's non-farm payrolls are released, revealing the fate of the cryptocurrency market.

📉 Weak data: Expectations of interest rate cuts ignite, with a liquidity frenzy imminent. Historically, BTC has seen a single-day increase of 8%.

📈 Strong data: Dreams of interest rate cuts shattered, a strong dollar suppresses the market. Beware of a repeat of the overnight liquidation affecting 400,000 people.

The direction of the year-end market will be set tonight. Are you betting long or short?

#BTC #NonFarm #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is in place! Powell sends two key signals; can the market rebound continue?
$BTC $BNB $ETH
On December 11, 2023, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year as expected, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, with a total cut of 75 basis points for the year. Powell's statements at the press conference and the meeting's resolution concealed two core qualitative signals: one is a long-term rate cut path that is lower than expected, and the other is short-term liquidity support that exceeds expectations, leading to an immediate market rebound, although concerns remain.

1. Expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have significantly cooled, with severe divergence in the dot plot

The latest dot plot shows that Federal Reserve officials have a median expectation of only one rate cut (25 basis points) in 2026, far below previous market expectations, and internal disagreements have reached a recent high: 7 officials advocate for maintaining the interest rate unchanged throughout 2026, while 8 officials support at least two rate cuts. This prediction is consistent with earlier assessments in the Shuqin program, implying that sustained rate cuts are highly unlikely in 2026, primarily because the Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 (from 1.8% to 2.3%), while inflation is expected to fall to 2.4% but still above the 2% target, and there has been no significant deterioration in the labor market, lacking the economic foundation for rapid rate cuts. Additionally, the meeting statement adjusted its wording to "consider further adjustments in terms of magnitude and timing," indicating that the threshold for future rate cuts has significantly increased.

2. $40 billion short-term bond purchases are "precise easing," not quantitative easing

In addition to the negative news, the Federal Reserve has thrown out a liquidity "sweet date": starting from December 12, it will launch a short-term Treasury purchase plan with a scale of about $40 billion, aimed at maintaining ample bank reserves and alleviating pressure in the overnight financing market. Powell explicitly emphasized that this move is not quantitative easing (QE) — unlike long-term bond purchases during the crisis to stimulate the economy, this time only short-term varieties are being purchased, and the pace will gradually slow, with completion and cessation expected before April next year.

It is noteworthy that the current market rebound mainly relies on short-term liquidity easing, but the limited room for rate cuts in 2026 means that the positive news lacks sustained support, and attention should be paid to the risk of a correction after "good news is fully priced in". It is recommended to closely monitor inflation data and changes in the labor market.
#美联储FOMC会议
#美联储会议 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

💥Exploded! Powell said one thing, and Bitcoin surged 2000 points late at night! $BTC

Did you see the recent market trends? It shot from 92000 all the way to 94000, all thanks to the Federal Reserve's late-night performance! 🎭

Let me summarize for everyone:
🕒 Before 3 AM: Hassett stated "can lower by 50 basis points," and Bitcoin responded by bouncing back above 93000— the market moved ahead of time!
🕒 At 3 AM: A 25 basis points rate cut was implemented, meeting expectations, and the market fluctuated around 92000.
💥 The real explosive point is here:

· The Federal Reserve announced it would buy 40 billion in government bonds within a month (liquidity confirmed💧)
· Official Milan directly supported a 50 basis points cut (true dovish)
· Powell himself said "no one is considering raising rates now" — as soon as he finished speaking, Bitcoin instantly broke through 94000!

This rhythm clearly tells you: the water has come, and the boat will rise. Besides being optimistic about mainstream coins, don’t miss out on PU♥PPI♥ES on the Ethereum chain!

Reminder to buy near 91900 during the lunch break, and the evening dip to 91700 is a gift opportunity, with the first target of 93600 already reached; if it breaks, we continue to watch!

Have you kept up with this surge? How far do you think it can go next?
Let's discuss your operations and views in the comments!👇
$ETH $BNB #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #行情解读

$BTC The critical moment has arrived! 😱 Tonight, the Federal Reserve is about to reveal its cards, and the global market is focused on one action — a rate cut of 25 basis points is almost a certainty! ⏰ At 03:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the interest rate decision will be announced; half an hour later, Powell will speak personally, and every word could create huge waves 🌊.

Currently, market expectations are high, but the key is not whether there will be a cut, but the signals released by Powell! 📉 If the stance is dovish, risk assets might celebrate; if unexpectedly hawkish, be careful of a sudden market reversal… From a data perspective, inflation has been fluctuating recently, and the resilience of the job market remains, the real challenge for the Fed is: is this the start, or just a one-time comfort?

Beware of "buy the expectation, sell the fact"! History has reminded us many times that the decision point can become a turning point. 📊 Are you preparing to position yourself in advance, or waiting for a clear direction? Let's discuss your strategy in the comments! 👇
#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储会议
$ETH
$ZEC

December 10th ETH
The ETH large-scale trend remains strong, much stronger than Bitcoin, with Ethereum reaching a high of 3397. The current hourly high consolidation is a normal turnover in a strong trend, not a top structure. The MACD momentum is still being released, and the 4-hour Bollinger Bands upper band is fully open, indicating that there is still room for a second high tonight. The numbers #利率决议 and #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 released tonight need to be closely monitored, as there may be a situation of a pin bar, so be sure to set stop losses. #加密市场观察
Currently, Ethereum has broken through the descending trendline. If a breakout situation occurs, it is not a crash but an opportunity. Entering a long position near 3138 is a good choice, as it coincides with the trendline breakout retest, but be sure to set stop losses.
The second scenario is a strong breakthrough at 3400, where you can try a long position near ema21. These are the two scenarios discussed in the live broadcast; we will trade based on where the market goes. This round of rebound still aims to remove the high point of 3650! #ETH走势分析

December 10 BTC
Cycle Breakdown
Weekly Level
The overall structure remains robust, currently in a rebound phase after hitting support. Continuous attention is needed on the fundamentals, especially focusing on the numbers announced tonight at #利率决定 and #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 . It is expected to mainly consolidate within the day, waiting for guidance from macro events.
Daily Level
The price has completed a triangular consolidation pattern and has achieved a key breakthrough of the downtrend line. In terms of technical indicators, both MACD and RSI maintain a golden cross state, indicating that bullish momentum remains, and there is still room for movement above. #美联储降息预期升温
4-Hour Level
The larger structure is within a fluctuating upward channel, and in the short term, it has broken through a local downtrend channel, forming a bullish ascending flag. Currently, attention should be closely paid to the resistance of the triple bottom neckline near $94,000. If it can effectively break through and stabilize, it is expected to open up upward space, targeting first at $98,800, and if it breaks strongly, looking towards the 0.618 zone of $104,000–$106,000. It is recommended to focus on positioning long positions after a pullback during the day. #加密市场反弹
Key Positions
Upper Resistance: $94,000 – $95,000
Lower Support: $90,700 – $89,700
#BTC走势分析

In fact, it is almost certain that interest rates will remain stable in August, and the focus of market attention has shifted to the speech of Fed Chairman Powell, whether he will tighten the policy hawkishly or turn to dovish easing. If the Fed decides to open the easing gate, then this action will most likely not stop at a single rate cut, but will herald the official start of the rate cut cycle.

Some analysts even boldly predict that there may be three rate cuts this year, each set at 25 basis points. However, all these speculations must be based on the final decision of the Fed meeting tonight, and the market's reaction and future trends will also move accordingly.
#美联储何时降息？
#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

Optimus Prime! The man who can make the market tough with just one sentence 😆, don't get soft again in a while
$BTC #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

The most expensive sound in the world is coming, brothers, is the bullet ready #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

9.23 Today's Trading Record Market is relatively calm
Not much profit
Basically in a free play state
I'm quite satisfied with this result
The focus is on old Powell's speech in the evening
There will be more volatility Remember to set a stop loss in the evening #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

On the first day of the congressional hearing on monetary policy, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that the labor market is solid, inflation remains above the 2% target, and there is no rush to cut interest rates. The likelihood of a rate cut in June by the Federal Reserve has further diminished, and the cryptocurrency market continues to remain sluggish under its influence.

The supply of stablecoins has been increasing, but BTC has not shown a corresponding rise, still hovering below $100,000.

Historically, most Februarys have ended with gains, especially during bull markets. Now that February is nearly half over, BTC remains in a downtrend. In this cycle, every time BTC experiences a slight pullback, the altcoin market encounters a catastrophic decline. If BTC cannot rebound and surpass $100,000 by the end of the month, the situation in the altcoin market may further deteriorate.

Now everyone is mocking ETH, but I still have confidence in ETH's future trends. The arrival of altcoin season requires ETH; without BTC's rise, there will be no bull market, and similarly, without ETH's rise, there will be no altcoin season. Without the wealth creation myths of altcoin season, it will be impossible to attract a large number of new users. Relying solely on imitating ETH's existing ecosystem without any innovation, SOL's rise is merely a battle among existing users, at most, as seen now, where only a few coins can keep up with BTC, while the majority of other coins languish. I believe in the vitality of the crypto space, I believe 2025 will be a year of explosive bull markets, and I believe there will still be an altcoin season in this cycle, so I also believe that ETH's spring will eventually come. 🥳

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38769032259
#比特币后市
#ETH走势分析
#山寨季到来

At 2.00-2.30 am tomorrow, the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech will be released. Compared with the dot plot released by the Fed in March, the Fed's core view is that three interest rate cuts this year will remain, and there will be three more interest rate cuts in 2025. Since the release, there have been further signs of continued inflation, while the labor market has also performed strongly. Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the May meeting also hinted that interest rates may have to be maintained.
According to a Bloomberg survey, 41% of economists expect the median interest rate forecast to indicate two interest rate cuts in 2024, while 41% expect the median interest rate forecast to indicate only one interest rate cut or no interest rate cut at all. #美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储降息周期 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储基准利率 #比特币走势分析

$DOGE "New Federal Reserve News Agency" published an interpretation of Powell's speech early this morning. The article reiterated the current issues most concerning the Federal Reserve. 🐶🐶🐶

$ETH reiterated that the Federal Reserve faces challenges in maintaining low inflation and stable employment; reiterated that slowing job growth has led the Federal Reserve to focus more on the labor market; reiterated that tariff hikes may cause prices to rise sharply, but this does not mean they will rise all at once. 🐶🐶🐶

$SHIB it can be seen that: Powell hopes the market does not over-expect "full-scale easing"; he needs to "stabilize expectations and not let the market run wild prematurely." Therefore, he avoids making strong hints about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October, but he also does not strongly refute the market's widespread expectation of another rate cut. 🐶🐶🐶

✨ Neither committing nor denying. Uncle Powell, you are really bad! You understand risk management rhetoric, maintaining the market's expectations of rate cuts while also preserving the independence of the Federal Reserve.

✨ The title of the article from the "New Federal Reserve News Agency" initially was "Powell Says Rates Are at a 'Moderately Restrictive' Level," which was later changed to "Powell Says Rates Are at a 'Moderately Restrictive' Level, Leaving Open Possibility for Rate Cuts," thus providing a sense of direction.

✨ The old trick: vague, leaving blanks, making you guess.

💰💰💰 Uncle Powell, you are really something 🐶🐶🐶, but we all truly love you. 😘😘😘

#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #山寨币战略储备 #狗狗币ETF进展 #meme板块关注热点 #马斯克小奶狗

! ! The market is betting like crazy! Is the Fed's rate cut in September a foregone conclusion?

🔥 On July 9, CME Fed Watch caused a stir! Traders placed bets one after another, predicting that the Fed will take a key step in September - the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 71.8%! This figure ignited the enthusiasm of the market like a fireball, and the rate cut storm seems to be ready to go!

🤔 However, in the context of such strong expectations of rate cuts, 24.8% of traders still chose to hold their ground, believing that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, adding a touch of uncertainty to the market.

😲 What's even more surprising is that there are a few warriors who dare to dream. They believe that the Fed may take more radical measures and cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Although the probability is only 3.4%, it is enough to make the market look sideways!

🔍 What will be the Fed's next move? The heartbeat and breathing of the market are tense. This game about interest rates is about to usher in the moment of revelation!

#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储利率决议即将公布 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？

On June 23, will the interest rate cut be imminent, and will the bull market follow? Don't be fooled by those so-called "big Vs"! They often bring out complex concepts to mislead people, just to achieve the purpose of charging fees and cutting leeks.

In fact, the logic of the currency circle is quite simple: when big funds come in, the price goes up; when big funds go out, the price goes down. If you want to make a profit from investing in cryptocurrencies, you must first understand the macro economy.

Why does the US dollar interest rate cut cause the currency circle to rise wildly?

1. There is a seesaw effect between commodity and stock prices;

2. The US dollar interest rate cut will cause commodity prices in the countries that release water to rise, funds to flow into developing countries, and their stock markets to fall. However, many "big Vs" have contradictory analyses, and they don't understand economic principles at all.

The US dollar interest rate hike will put the relevant economies into crisis, the exchange rate will become unstable, the US dollar will appreciate, and global funds will flow into the United States, and then be allocated to giants through treasury bonds to invest in US stocks. The interest rate cut is just the opposite.

The biggest risk of the US dollar interest rate cut is that funds may flow out, and the US's response is to export force to reduce financial risks. Every time the interest rate is cut, there will often be violent actions internationally, as was the case in the past five Middle East wars.

#美联储何时降息？ #美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话
$UNFI $PEOPLE $1000SATS
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$ETH $XRP $ASTER
‼️🔥Powell admitted that it is difficult to determine a rate cut in December. The positions of his subordinates remain divided! Please see the detailed introduction in the image below‼️
#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

🛑 The pump has stopped!
The Federal Reserve has hit the "pause button," ending QT
Translated into plain language: The Federal Reserve is no longer "withdrawing blood" from the market
Why has the cryptocurrency sector been difficult for the past two years
Because the US dollar has been continuously flowing back
Now this largest "tightening spell" has finally been lifted
Before the major release of liquidity officially begins, beware of the dual explosion of bulls and bears brought by the cycle alternation!!!
#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #政策风险

Just yesterday, I said it would drop, and today Powell's speech just did this to you. The current price is $99,600, and $BTC has not yet broken the upward trend. For now, we are still bullish, but if it breaks the trend, we need to be cautious.

Next, it is possible that it will still follow the previous analysis of rebounding to reach a new high, or it may still correct with a significant downward trend to 85-87K.

#鲍威尔 #美联储不允许持有比特币 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #加密市场回调 #圣诞行情预测

Several key elements of Powell's speech are analyzed. It is impossible to raise interest rates. The market needs to slowly increase liquidity! Powell hinted at a rate cut at this time? Bitcoin and Ethereum ushered in a sharp rebound when Powell announced the suspension of interest rate cuts and spoke, but then continued to fall. However, both US stocks and US bonds ushered in gains and did not continue to fall. What does this mean? It shows that there are still short orders in the currency circle that have not been profited and left. The dealer still has contracts that have not been cleared, so continue to suppress the market. So let's summarize Powell's speech. First of all, in the future, when the unemployment rate rises by 0.2%, the interest rate will be cut. The unemployment rate data released now is the same as last month, 3.8%. So how should the market choose in the future? The unemployment rate data should be focused on. Compromise Second, Powell denied the interest rate hike. Powell will threaten the market with words. If there is any possibility, it will not be very confirmed. However, this time he directly denied the possibility of an interest rate hike, so those who are thinking about raising interest rates should not dream. Dove Third, confirming the slowdown of balance sheet reduction, but it does not mean that the magnitude of the balance sheet reduction will be smaller than expected. This sentence is a bit confusing. In plain words, although I have slowed down the balance sheet reduction, don't be too idealistic. It will not make the market come alive all at once. (Similar to the patient who should drink porridge first instead of big fish and meat) Dove

Fourth, the inflation level this year is very strong. If the labor market remains strong and sustainable, then the interest rate cut will be postponed this year. Hawk

Fifth, given the current situation, I think our policy stance is in a good position. (In plain words, I feel good about myself, our strategy is good, and I am OK again)

Finally, the Fed unanimously agreed that the current round of interest rates will continue to be suspended. The current situation of encryption is that the macro danger has passed and we can wait for the dealer to close the net. #鲍威尔说了什么 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话
#BTC回调才会更好的上涨 $BTC $ETH