美联储利率决议即将公布

Recently, discussions about the Federal Reserve have been a bit mixed. Let me help you sort it out.
First of all, the much-anticipated "big liquidity injection" may not happen for a while. The latest dot plot shows a very gradual path for interest rate cuts—twice in 2026, once in 2027, and then rates will remain unchanged in 2028. This means that liquidity won't suddenly flood the market, and the expectation of the central bank "opening the floodgates" to create a super cycle of assets needs to be adjusted.

Secondly, regarding the $40 billion in Treasury purchases, many people directly interpret it as "expanding the balance sheet to inject liquidity." But you need to know its full name: RMP (Reserve Maintenance Purchase).

Its purpose is completely different from true quantitative easing (QE).
QE​ = Actively adding new water to the financial system's "pool" to stimulate the economy and the market.

RMP​ = Due to factors like the Treasury drawing water and corporate settlements, the water in the "pool" is about to drop below a safe line, so the Federal Reserve quickly adds some back to prevent the system from running out of water.

So, this is not about starting a new trend; it's about maintaining normal system operations. The Federal Reserve has also clearly stated that these types of purchases will significantly decrease after April next year.

So, what should we watch next?
The real macroeconomic direction hinges on two key data points:
The November non-farm payroll data released on December 16 (which may be weak due to the previous government shutdown).

The November CPI data released on December 18 (the core of the core).
Especially the CPI. If the inflation data for November does not rebound after the rate cuts in September and October, it will clear the way for further easing by the Federal Reserve in the future. Conversely, if inflation rises, the market's expected path for interest rate cuts may be delayed again.

To summarize:
The current macroeconomic picture is—no major liquidity injection, only careful maintenance. The market may have been too optimistic before, and now it needs to return to reality: liquidity won't be tighter, but it won't be significantly eased either.

For traders, this means that the simplistic logic of betting on a "water buffalo" needs to change. In the future, more attention needs to be paid to the strength or weakness of economic data itself, and how the market can find balance again amid this "neither tight nor loose" expectation.

Stay patient and pay attention to the data. #美联储降息 #美联储降息周期 #美联储利率决议即将公布

#美联储利率决议即将公布 The interest rate cut of 25 basis points has been announced tonight, which meets expectations. The market has not picked up yet.

Old Powell's speech at 3:30 is still ongoing, and he hasn't finished yet. The reporters have not seen any hawkish comments so far, but currently, the US stock market has rebounded by 100 points.

As for whether there will be a rate cut in January next year, it's still uncertain. If there are no negative comments later tonight, the market will continue to consolidate, possibly having a small rebound to 94500 or 95000 before coming down again. However, those with high-level short positions can continue to hold on; just wait a little longer.

Soon to insert needle $ETH $BTC #美联储利率决议即将公布

Interest rate cut at 3 AM, saw 95222, then came down! $BTC #美联储利率决议即将公布

$BTC $ETH $BNB
🚨Interest rate cut is here! Is it the end of good news or the starting point of the market? Tonight, closely watch Powell's statement to grasp the critical turning point. Quickly join the live broadcast to interpret the future market and plan opportunities ahead!
#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息周期 #美联储利率决议即将公布

The announcement of #美联储利率决议即将公布 11 at midnight is about a possible interest rate cut. Tomorrow night at 3:30 AM, old Powell will speak again. The fluctuations in the market have decreased a lot these past two days, likely waiting for tomorrow night's interest rate cut and the news from Powell's speech before moving in a direction. Personally, I don't see the market rallying much, regardless of whether there is a rate cut or not. The rebound is high, and it is mainly about shorting, so I do not recommend going long at low prices.

#美联储利率决议即将公布
#美联储扩表
Important news is coming, interest rate cuts are imminent, where will the market go!
(II)(II)(II)
I think the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates more than three times next year, and not just by 75 basis points!

Because Trump's recent remarks said: cutting rates is the touchstone for the position of the Federal Reserve Chairman!
The Federal Reserve Chairman appointed during his term must be dovish and supportive of rate cuts! No matter how many rate cuts happen in the first half of next year, there will definitely be more rate cuts in the second half!

He wants to reduce the government's scale of U.S. Treasury bonds and has repeatedly criticized Powell for calling for rate cuts! Rate cuts can be said to be a major event that Trump has been thinking about!

Back to the crypto market, I do not believe there will be particularly large fluctuations when this rate cut takes effect, and there will certainly not be dreams of hitting new highs, although I also look forward to it! But I trust the situation more!

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction has ended, and in fact, I would prefer to see an expansion of the balance sheet, which would result in more funds flowing out. Without sufficient funds, it is impossible to rely solely on a few institutions like Strategy and BitMine to drive the market up!

Currently, too many people are bearish. I believe you should have more faith in yourself. If you think we are already in a bear market, or that it will become even more bearish in the future, then you should liquidate or short! But if you think Bitcoin and Ethereum can still rise, you should hold on and accumulate at lower prices, waiting for a new wave of market activity!

BTC and ETH will definitely reach new highs! And I feel that the time won't be too long, the four-year bull-bear cycle may have already been broken, and the impact of the halving is not significant anymore, as the proportion of unmined BTC is already low! The altcoin season may really be over, the strong will remain strong, and the weak will be eliminated, causing you to doubt life as prices fall!

Sen Brother will analyze the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on Thursday:

Right now, everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on Thursday, and basically, everyone has an idea - a 25 basis point cut is very likely to happen.

However, what truly determines the future market direction is not the interest rate cut, but rather what Powell says afterwards!

There are two key points:

Is he going to express "we will pause after this rate cut," or will he, as usual, leave some "imagination space" for the market?

Because every word from Powell will be interpreted by the market to an extreme.

Last time, after the October cut of 25 basis points, he reminded that inflation could rebound, and also mentioned that it’s uncertain whether there will be a cut in December. Don’t forget that inflation hasn’t truly returned below their target of 2% since 2021.

The recent data is also quite contradictory:

① The labor market is a bit weak.

② PCE shows that a slowdown in inflation is favorable for interest rate cuts.

③ Last week, the jobless claims hit a three-year low, and it doesn’t seem that weak.

The data is conflicting, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to make judgments.

There are also a lot of troubles outside: massive tax cuts by the government, fiscal pressure, uncertainty over tariffs, questioning the independence of the Federal Reserve, and a 43-day government shutdown leading to data not being released. All these make the path to interest rate cuts more complicated.

In this context, the market is completely dancing to the news:

① If Powell's speech is dovish (implying further rate cuts or leaving room for imagination), then the market might get excited.

② The biggest fear is a black swan: what if they suddenly don’t cut? 【Then there’s no need for analysis, just buckle up and prepare for the roller coaster!】

With less than two days until the announcement, at this time, the market should still eat if it needs to. Sen Brother will lead fans to ambush in advance and wait for the big fluctuations after the rate cut is implemented 【the last big meal before the year ends, Sen Brother will definitely seize it tightly.】

#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #降息期待 #美联储利率决议即将公布

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$BTC Bitcoin has broken the 4-year cycle! Institutions stubbornly hold the selling pressure, will it reach $200,000 in 2027?

The old script of Bitcoin's "4-year bull and bear cycle" has been directly overturned by institutions — Bernstein just stated: this bull market is a "super long standby version", retail investors are panicking and selling, but institutional buying has firmly supported the market.

Let's talk about this round of correction: the price of Bitcoin has dropped by 30%, which looks quite frightening, but less than 5% of the funds in the ETF have flowed out — institutions have not run away, but instead are secretly accumulating chips. They are now aiming high: first seeing $150,000 in 2026, reaching a peak of $200,000 in 2027, and even claiming it will reach $1 million by 2033.

Previously, Bitcoin had a fixed cycle of "halving leads to price increase, increase followed by crash", but now with institutions entering the game, the rules have changed: retail panic selling cannot stir up waves, institutions treat it as a "long-term asset" to hold, and can stabilize it even with large fluctuations. This is not just trading Bitcoin? Clearly, institutions are locking up Bitcoin to hoard.

However, the question is, does Bernstein truly see through the trend, or are they just riding the wave with high targets? Do you think Bitcoin can last until 2027 to touch $200,000, or will institutions run after taking profits based on expectations? Vote in the comments, do you believe in this $200,000 pie? #美联储利率决议即将公布

#美联储利率决议即将公布
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The current market and mainstream institutions generally expect that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, with the probability of a rate cut approaching 90%. It is highly likely that the federal funds target rate will be lowered from the current range of 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%.

1. Core Expectation Basis

1. Market probability is highly skewed: According to CME FedWatch data, as of December 8, 2025, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 89.2%, while the probability of maintaining rates is only 10.8%. The market's bet on a slight rate cut is very clear.

2. Consensus among mainstream investment banks: Most leading global investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and CITIC Securities, have adjusted or maintained their expectations, judging that there will be a 25 basis point rate cut in December. The core logic is that signals of a weak U.S. labor market are prominent, and inflationary pressures are generally controllable.

3. Federal Reserve officials are sending dovish signals: New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller, among other core voting members, have clearly stated their support for a rate cut in December to stabilize the labor market and push policy rates towards neutral levels. Among the 12 voting members in December, doves still hold an advantage, providing policy support for the rate cut.

2. Minority Divergent Views

Only a few institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered Bank, hold different opinions, believing that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates in December. Their concerns mainly revolve around the need to further observe the impact of tariff policies on inflation transmission and to avoid the risk of triggering inflation rebound by cutting rates too early.

3. Key Time Nodes

The Federal Reserve will hold its December monetary policy meeting from December 9 to 10, and the final decision on the rate cut and its magnitude will be officially announced after the meeting concludes. The outcome of this meeting will also directly affect the pace of monetary policy easing in 2026.

This week is a super data week! The long-awaited Federal Reserve interest rate decision is finally about to be announced! Plus, Powell's press conference speech! Will there be a direct rate cut of 25 basis points? Or will the interest rate remain unchanged? Or will they start balance sheet expansion? Is there a possibility of a 50 basis point cut? Is the next rate cut in 2026 an increase? …… All of these are possible……

Not only that, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and other central banks have a dense schedule of data, along with multiple speeches from Federal Reserve officials…… The global market will be buzzing this week! Let's look forward to it!

I personally believe that expectations have been digested in advance, and Bitcoin may surge in a short time and then crash down again; December will be a month of volatile declines……
#美联储利率决议即将公布 #鲍威尔新闻发布会

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