glassnode

Last week, BTC made a notable move: it reclaimed $78,100, which Glassnode calls the 'True Market Mean.' Let's dive into the details:
1. The $78,100 breakout has happened, and the next wall is at $80,100.

In this chart, the light green line represents the True Market Mean, while the deep red line is the STH cost basis.
BTC is currently sitting above the light green line, indicating that overall market positions have shifted from losses to slight profits — this line is a structural watershed, not just a technical indicator.
The next resistance is the deep red STH cost basis line: $80,100.

This week, Glassnode released an analysis report with a core judgment that can be summed up in one sentence:
This recovery is real, but fragile.
To put it simply:
First checkpoint: 81,000
BTC is currently around 74,000, which is still 5.2% away from the 'real market average' of 81,000 above.
This price isn't just a randomly drawn line.
It is the average cost basis of all active supply, the 'cost averaging price' for the entire market.
Historically, bear market rebounds often encounter the first wave of intense selling pressure here—
Because those who were trapped above start to flee as they see their breakeven point approaching.

"Investor Confidence Index towards Trends" (data source: Glassnode)

From the chart, it almost shows a fluctuation pattern that is completely consistent with the previous cycle.
Two structural segments, each marked with four nodes ①②③④, following a highly consistent path.
It's just compared to the period from December 2021 to January 2022,
Now this segment is more 'mini', with a shorter span (personal judgment related to the institutions present).
Key data:
As of April 20, the deviation of the red zone from returning to the upper zero axis
almost identical to October 22, 2022.
What does that mean?

Price is the last thing to move.
On-chain data moves first.
If you're making crypto decisions based only on price charts and Twitter — you're trading blind. Here's how to actually see what's happening before it shows up in price.
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📡 SIGNAL 1 — EXCHANGE INFLOWS vs OUTFLOWS
When BTC flows INTO exchanges: holders are preparing to sell. Bearish signal.
When BTC flows OUT of exchanges: holders are withdrawing to cold storage. Bullish signal — supply leaving the market.
This single metric told you everything you needed to know before the 2021 top and the 2022 recovery.
Tools: Glassnode, CryptoQuant
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📡 SIGNAL 2 — WHALE WALLET MOVEMENTS
Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC are tracked publicly on-chain.
When whales accumulate quietly → price often follows weeks later.
When whale wallets start moving coins to exchanges → distribution phase beginning.
You can't hide on a public blockchain. Every whale move is visible. Most people just don't look.
Tools: Nansen, Whale Alert, Arkham Intelligence
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📡 SIGNAL 3 — STABLECOIN SUPPLY & FLOWS
Rising stablecoin supply on-chain = dry powder building = future buy pressure.
Stablecoins moving onto exchanges = money ready to buy = short-term bullish.
Stablecoins leaving exchanges into DeFi = risk-on sentiment = broader bull sign.
Stablecoins are the fuel. On-chain supply tells you how full the tank is.
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📡 SIGNAL 4 — REALIZED PRICE vs MARKET PRICE
Realized price = average price at which all existing BTC was last moved on-chain.
When market price falls BELOW realized price → most holders are at a loss → capitulation zone → historically the best buying opportunity.
This happened in late 2022. Every on-chain analyst was screaming BUY. Price was 17000 per BTC. Most retail was too scared to act.
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📡 SIGNAL 5 — MINER BEHAVIOR
Miners are forced sellers — they need to sell BTC to cover electricity costs.
When miners accumulate instead of selling → they expect higher prices → bullish.
When miner reserves drop rapidly → they're selling aggressively → bearish pressure ahead.
Post-halving miner behavior is especially important — reduced block rewards mean only efficient miners survive, and their accumulation decisions signal long-term confidence.
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📡 SIGNAL 6 — ACTIVE ADDRESSES & NETWORK GROWTH
Rising daily active addresses = more people using the network = organic adoption.
Falling active addresses during a price pump = price driven by speculation not real use.
A pump with flat or falling active addresses is a warning sign.
A quiet accumulation period with rising active addresses is a buy signal most miss.
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💡 HOW TO USE ALL OF THIS
You don't need to track every metric. Pick 2–3 and understand them deeply.
My personal shortlist:
→ Exchange outflows (BTC supply leaving market)
→ Stablecoin supply growth
→ Realized price vs market price
When all three align bullishly → I size up positions.
When they diverge → I wait or reduce exposure.
On-chain data doesn't lie. Narratives do.
#OnChainAnalysis #Bitcoin #Glassnode

#BTC‬ <t-73/>#glassnode #new+ <t-76/>#ончейн The dynamics of capital flows, exchange activity, leverage in crypto derivatives and demand from institutions all indicate a jump in risk appetite among Bitcoin investors. Glassnode came to this conclusion.The risk appetite for#Bitcoininvestors is increasing, with growing signs of speculation appearing across capital flows, exchange activity, derivatives leverage, and even institutional demand.