After the clouds clear, the moon becomes bright

1. Core points of Powell's recent speech
Powell's latest remarks mainly focus on the trade-offs between economic balance, inflation risks, and the job market, with the following key points:
1. Cautious policy stance
Emphasize the current inflation risk leaning upwards (driven by tariff policies), while the employment risk leans towards weakness (employment growth has significantly slowed, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%), therefore the Federal Reserve needs to find a balance between the dual objectives. He clearly stated: "Monetary policy does not have a risk-free path."
2. Downplay the persistence of inflation
Powell believes that the recent increase in commodity prices is mainly driven by tariff policies, representing a "one-time price shock," rather than persistent inflation. However, he also warned that if the supply chain recovery is delayed (such as in the automotive industry), inflationary pressures may be prolonged.