I. Key Points of the Current Situation
1. Macroeconomic Environment
- Federal Reserve policy dominates the market: the probability of a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting is 88.4%; if implemented, it will significantly boost risk assets, otherwise it may trigger panic selling.
- Liquidity risk is prominent: the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.3 trillion, but the average daily trading volume has shrunk by 50% year-on-year, market depth has decreased by 30%, and large sell-offs can easily trigger severe volatility.
2. Capital Flows
- Institutional rebalancing is evident:
- Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $195 million last week, with Ethereum ETF also experiencing outflows.
- XRP ETF attracts capital against the trend: cumulative inflow approaches $1 billion (reached $845 million on December 2).
- Altcoin Rotation: SOL, SHIB, etc. attracting funds, SHIB technical indicators suggest a potential increase of 29%.
3. On-chain and Technical Signals
- Bitcoin Key Support Level: $92,000 (monthly Bollinger Band midline), if broken may drop to $85,000.
- Market sentiment extreme: Funding rates turn negative, fear index approaching "extreme fear".
- ETH Staking Hits New High: Over 32 million ETH locked, DeFi TVL growth 40%.
II. Key Events and Predictions for the Coming Week
Market Simulation (sorted by probability):
1. Optimistic Scenario (60%):
CPI mild + Federal Reserve cuts rates → BTC breaks above $95,000, ETH hits $3,300
Funds flow back to mainstream coins, XRP ETF scale exceeds 1 billion
2. Neutral Scenario (30%):
Federal Reserve remains steady + Japan does not raise interest rates → BTC fluctuates between $88,000-$93,000
Altcoins (like SHIB, SOL) leading gains phase
3. Pessimistic Scenario (10%):
Inflation rebound + Federal Reserve hawkish → BTC breaks below $85,000, triggering a wave of leveraged liquidations
III. Operational Strategy Recommendations
1. Short-term Trading:
- Positioning BTC/ETH call options before rate cuts to hedge FOMC volatility risk.
- Pay attention to SHIB, XRP breakout opportunities: SHIB weekly support level $0.000012, target increase 29%.
2. Medium to Long-term Holdings:
- Institutional Cost Support: Bitcoin miner production cost around $94,000, below this price level can accumulate in batches.
- Focus on Structural Opportunities: RWA (Real World Assets) track TVL growth 177%, select leading tokens.
Attached Chart: BTC Key Support/Resistance (for the next week)
IV. Risk Warning
- Liquidity Trap: Exchange BTC reserves drop to $250 billion (-16% since August), risk of large sell orders increasing.
- Regulatory Variables: US SEC resumes ETF approvals, but policy implementation lag may trigger volatility.
