Gold has dropped below $4200, and the yield curve of U.S. Treasuries has steepened—these seemingly contradictory signals point to a consensus on Wall Street: the probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 85%, but Powell's knife has quietly come out of its sheath. As the market frantically bets on easing, this historically divided Federal Reserve decision is, in fact, a 'hawkish hunting forecast' directed at the crypto market.
1. Rate cut ≠ easing! Three major hawkish claws hide deadly traps
1. Policy statement cuts
Powell will surely declare that 'this rate cut ≠ the start of an easing cycle', locking the threshold for rate cuts in 2026 to 'unemployment rate breaking 5%' or 'core PCE falling below 2.3%'—far higher than current data (unemployment rate 4.4%, core PCE 2.8%).
Liquidity tightening
The new regulation effective December 1, 'Stop Balance Sheet Reduction + Switch to Buying Short-term Bonds', will passively raise long-term interest rates and directly suppress the valuation models of long-duration assets like BTC.
Political game of the new term
Powell's last rate meeting before leaving office needs to adopt a hawkish stance to secure the nomination of his successor. The crypto world may become a political sacrifice, and the scenario of BTC crashing 53% after a hawkish rate cut in 2019 could repeat itself.
Short-term risk
The market has already digested expectations: the S&P 500 energy sector recently fell by 1.28%, and the materials sector dropped by 0.82%, reflecting profit-taking. Since November 21, Bitcoin has seen a maximum increase of over 16%, indicating that the market has already begun to digest the good news.
J.P. Morgan warns that if interest rate cuts materialize, U.S. stocks may correct as investors lock in profits.
Class II and III Leek Harvesting Map
Survival Guide: Two Major Escape Signals
Historical blood and tears prove that the real opportunity comes after the blade has passed. If you want to avoid being harvested, keep a close watch:
1. 【SOFR option volatility breaks 40】 (currently 32.1) → A sign of panic selling by hedge funds
2. 【Powell mentions 'financial stability risks' ≥ 3 times】 → Confirmation signal of a hawkish stance
Soul-searching question: Do you think that after this decision, BTC will first drop to ____ million dollars? (Leave your prediction in the comments)
