Alexander-H
APE Holder
High-Frequency Trader
10.1 Months
Navigating the waves of K-lines, an artist of contract trading.
6 Following
66 Followers
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Virtual currency market 24-hour fund flow
Summary
Key observations (updated at 08:38)
1. Risk aversion demand dominates
- The proportion of stablecoin funds exceeded 28%, reaching a new high in nearly 30 days, reflecting a decline in short-term market risk appetite
2. Bitcoin siphon effect
- BTC accounted for 32% of net inflow, with ETF increasing holdings by over 8,200 in a single day (data source: Farside Investors)
3. Obvious track differentiation
- AI sector (e.g., FET) saw fund inflows of +12%, while GameFi track generally experienced outflows of over -5%
Operational tips
- Beware of the linkage risk between 'SOL funds continuing to flow out' and the decline in on-chain TVL (TVL decreased by 9.2% this week)
- Pay attention to the potential impact of 'Hong Kong's new regulations' on the liquidity of stablecoins (policy effective countdown: 3 days)
Key observations (updated at 08:38)
1. Risk aversion demand dominates
- The proportion of stablecoin funds exceeded 28%, reaching a new high in nearly 30 days, reflecting a decline in short-term market risk appetite
2. Bitcoin siphon effect
- BTC accounted for 32% of net inflow, with ETF increasing holdings by over 8,200 in a single day (data source: Farside Investors)
3. Obvious track differentiation
- AI sector (e.g., FET) saw fund inflows of +12%, while GameFi track generally experienced outflows of over -5%
Operational tips
- Beware of the linkage risk between 'SOL funds continuing to flow out' and the decline in on-chain TVL (TVL decreased by 9.2% this week)
- Pay attention to the potential impact of 'Hong Kong's new regulations' on the liquidity of stablecoins (policy effective countdown: 3 days)
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Don't Bottom Fish Anymore! The Root Cause of 90% Retail Investors' Losses: Do You Understand the Link Between the Federal Reserve's QT and Binance's Selling Pressure?
1. Macroeconomic and policy shocks
1. Global liquidity tightening
- The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations rise, the strengthening dollar suppresses risk assets, and the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index rises to 46%;
- The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike triggers the unwinding of yen carry trades (approximately $20 trillion in scale), leading to a sell-off of crypto assets as funds flow back.
- The U.S. ends quantitative easing (QT), and the market interprets this as a signal of economic weakness, spreading risk-averse sentiment.
2. Geopolitical risks
- The escalation of U.S.-China trade frictions (such as threats of tariffs on China) triggers the liquidation of over $19 billion in leveraged positions in a single day, exacerbating market panic.
1. Global liquidity tightening
- The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations rise, the strengthening dollar suppresses risk assets, and the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index rises to 46%;
- The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike triggers the unwinding of yen carry trades (approximately $20 trillion in scale), leading to a sell-off of crypto assets as funds flow back.
- The U.S. ends quantitative easing (QT), and the market interprets this as a signal of economic weakness, spreading risk-averse sentiment.
2. Geopolitical risks
- The escalation of U.S.-China trade frictions (such as threats of tariffs on China) triggers the liquidation of over $19 billion in leveraged positions in a single day, exacerbating market panic.
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Non-Farm Night Strike! Bitcoin $92,000 Life and Death Battle: Is a Break Above 4.5% Unemployment Rate a Signal for a Surge?
Core Forecast and Impact Path
1. Data Expectations
- Unemployment Rate: The market generally expects it to remain at 4.4% (if it breaks 4.5%, it will strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts).
- New Jobs: Merging data from October to November, the market is concerned whether the weak trend will continue (September saw an increase of 119,000 but the unemployment rate rose).
2. The transmission logic of virtual currencies
- If the data is weak (unemployment rate > 4.4% or new jobs @ 50,000):
→ The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in 2026 increases → The dollar weakens + Risk appetite rebounds → Short-term benefits for BTC/ETH rebound.
- If the data is strong (new jobs > 80,000 and unemployment rate ≤ 4.4%):
1. Data Expectations
- Unemployment Rate: The market generally expects it to remain at 4.4% (if it breaks 4.5%, it will strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts).
- New Jobs: Merging data from October to November, the market is concerned whether the weak trend will continue (September saw an increase of 119,000 but the unemployment rate rose).
2. The transmission logic of virtual currencies
- If the data is weak (unemployment rate > 4.4% or new jobs @ 50,000):
→ The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in 2026 increases → The dollar weakens + Risk appetite rebounds → Short-term benefits for BTC/ETH rebound.
- If the data is strong (new jobs > 80,000 and unemployment rate ≤ 4.4%):
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Don't Panic During the Sudden Drop! Focus on These 3 Signals: 60% Probability of a Rebound Next Week!
1. Fear index 27 ≠ doomsday! The options market has hidden secrets
Bitcoin broke below 90,000, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to 27, but Binance options show key reversal signals:
- Short liquidations > Long liquidations (near 24 hours short positions liquidated reached $320 million)
- $92,000 resistance level failed three times, and $88,000 support zone funds began to bottom out (on-chain data shows whale addresses increased holdings by 12,000 BTC)
2. Current core market contradiction: bearish news exhausted VS bullish energy accumulating
Three major bearish alerts (must be vigilant)
1. China's regulatory upgrade: seven major associations jointly issued a document, reiterating that virtual currency transactions within the country are illegal, leading to accelerated capital withdrawal from platforms like OKX/Binance by mainland users (daily net outflow $180 million)
Bitcoin broke below 90,000, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to 27, but Binance options show key reversal signals:
- Short liquidations > Long liquidations (near 24 hours short positions liquidated reached $320 million)
- $92,000 resistance level failed three times, and $88,000 support zone funds began to bottom out (on-chain data shows whale addresses increased holdings by 12,000 BTC)
2. Current core market contradiction: bearish news exhausted VS bullish energy accumulating
Three major bearish alerts (must be vigilant)
1. China's regulatory upgrade: seven major associations jointly issued a document, reiterating that virtual currency transactions within the country are illegal, leading to accelerated capital withdrawal from platforms like OKX/Binance by mainland users (daily net outflow $180 million)
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FOMC Countdown: 48 Hours! 3 Types of Position Operation Templates: Defensive/Balanced/Aggressive Players Get What They Need
I. Key Points of the Current Situation
1. Macroeconomic Environment
- Federal Reserve policy dominates the market: the probability of a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting is 88.4%; if implemented, it will significantly boost risk assets, otherwise it may trigger panic selling.
- Liquidity risk is prominent: the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.3 trillion, but the average daily trading volume has shrunk by 50% year-on-year, market depth has decreased by 30%, and large sell-offs can easily trigger severe volatility.
2. Capital Flows
- Institutional rebalancing is evident:
- Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $195 million last week, with Ethereum ETF also experiencing outflows.
- XRP ETF attracts capital against the trend: cumulative inflow approaches $1 billion (reached $845 million on December 2).
1. Macroeconomic Environment
- Federal Reserve policy dominates the market: the probability of a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting is 88.4%; if implemented, it will significantly boost risk assets, otherwise it may trigger panic selling.
- Liquidity risk is prominent: the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.3 trillion, but the average daily trading volume has shrunk by 50% year-on-year, market depth has decreased by 30%, and large sell-offs can easily trigger severe volatility.
2. Capital Flows
- Institutional rebalancing is evident:
- Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $195 million last week, with Ethereum ETF also experiencing outflows.
- XRP ETF attracts capital against the trend: cumulative inflow approaches $1 billion (reached $845 million on December 2).
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Hawkish rate cuts are confirmed
1. Nature of interest rate cut: The core logic of a hawkish rate cut
1. The rate cut magnitude meets expectations but the attitude is cautious
- The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected (federal funds rate lowered to 3.5%-3.75%), aligning with a 94% probability expectation from the market.
- Hawkish signals are reflected in:
- Powell emphasized 'data-driven decisions', clearly opposing the market's bets on aggressive rate cuts in 2026;
- The dot plot suggests only 2 rate cuts in 2026 (fewer than the market expectation of 3-4);
- Multiple committee members oppose the rate cut, believing that controlling inflation should take priority.
2. Policy objectives focus on inflation rather than employment
- Despite the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, core inflation remains high at 3.3%, and the Federal Reserve is more concerned about the risks of tariff policies driving secondary inflation.
1. The rate cut magnitude meets expectations but the attitude is cautious
- The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected (federal funds rate lowered to 3.5%-3.75%), aligning with a 94% probability expectation from the market.
- Hawkish signals are reflected in:
- Powell emphasized 'data-driven decisions', clearly opposing the market's bets on aggressive rate cuts in 2026;
- The dot plot suggests only 2 rate cuts in 2026 (fewer than the market expectation of 3-4);
- Multiple committee members oppose the rate cut, believing that controlling inflation should take priority.
2. Policy objectives focus on inflation rather than employment
- Despite the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, core inflation remains high at 3.3%, and the Federal Reserve is more concerned about the risks of tariff policies driving secondary inflation.
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Countdown to 'hawkish rate cut': Powell's knife, three ways to cut into the crypto market's chives
Gold has dropped below $4200, and the yield curve of U.S. Treasuries has steepened—these seemingly contradictory signals point to a consensus on Wall Street: the probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 85%, but Powell's knife has quietly come out of its sheath. As the market frantically bets on easing, this historically divided Federal Reserve decision is, in fact, a 'hawkish hunting forecast' directed at the crypto market.
1. Rate cut ≠ easing! Three major hawkish claws hide deadly traps
1. Policy statement cuts
Powell will surely declare that 'this rate cut ≠ the start of an easing cycle', locking the threshold for rate cuts in 2026 to 'unemployment rate breaking 5%' or 'core PCE falling below 2.3%'—far higher than current data (unemployment rate 4.4%, core PCE 2.8%).
1. Rate cut ≠ easing! Three major hawkish claws hide deadly traps
1. Policy statement cuts
Powell will surely declare that 'this rate cut ≠ the start of an easing cycle', locking the threshold for rate cuts in 2026 to 'unemployment rate breaking 5%' or 'core PCE falling below 2.3%'—far higher than current data (unemployment rate 4.4%, core PCE 2.8%).
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Analysis of Today's Cryptocurrency Market Trends
According to the current time (December 4, 2025) and the latest market dynamics, the cryptocurrency market shows a fluctuating adjustment trend today, with the main characteristics as follows:
Core Currency Performance
- Bitcoin (BTC): The price fluctuates narrowly between $92,000 and $93,000, with a 24-hour increase of about 0.5%, and trading volume decreased by 12% compared to yesterday. The technical indicators show that BTC is supported at the previous low of $89,000, but the $100,000 round number still constitutes short-term resistance, and the MACD indicator shows weak momentum, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
- Ethereum (ETH): The current price is around $3,050, with a slight increase of 0.8% in 24 hours, supported by the DeFi ecosystem's TVL (Total Value Locked) rising to $145 billion, but the decline in Gas fees has led to network activity not meeting expectations, with $3,200 becoming a key resistance level.
Core Currency Performance
- Bitcoin (BTC): The price fluctuates narrowly between $92,000 and $93,000, with a 24-hour increase of about 0.5%, and trading volume decreased by 12% compared to yesterday. The technical indicators show that BTC is supported at the previous low of $89,000, but the $100,000 round number still constitutes short-term resistance, and the MACD indicator shows weak momentum, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
- Ethereum (ETH): The current price is around $3,050, with a slight increase of 0.8% in 24 hours, supported by the DeFi ecosystem's TVL (Total Value Locked) rising to $145 billion, but the decline in Gas fees has led to network activity not meeting expectations, with $3,200 becoming a key resistance level.
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The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December 2025 has stabilized between 87% and 92%.
Current market expectations
1. Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December
- 89%-92%: CME's "FedWatch" and other mainstream forecasting tools show that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December remained above 89% from December 3rd to 4th, peaking at 92%.
- Probability of maintaining the current interest rate: only 8%-11%, the market almost rules out the possibility of a rate hike (probability @1%).
2. Future interest rate cut path
- January 2026: The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 64.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 27.6%.
- Full year 2026: Bank of America predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice more in June and July, ultimately lowering the rate to 3.00%-3.25%.
1. Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December
- 89%-92%: CME's "FedWatch" and other mainstream forecasting tools show that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December remained above 89% from December 3rd to 4th, peaking at 92%.
- Probability of maintaining the current interest rate: only 8%-11%, the market almost rules out the possibility of a rate hike (probability @1%).
2. Future interest rate cut path
- January 2026: The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 64.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 27.6%.
- Full year 2026: Bank of America predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice more in June and July, ultimately lowering the rate to 3.00%-3.25%.
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You say this, but our Gree sister Dong does not agree. Skyworth also has cars, appliances, and mobile phones.
Netizens' perception of Xiaomi...
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Comprehensive Summary of the U.S. Cabinet Meeting on December 3 and Trump's Recent Remarks
📅 1. Cabinet Meeting and Statement Release
1. Meeting Time and Agenda
- Trump hosted a cabinet meeting at 11:30 AM EST on December 2 (12:30 AM Beijing time on December 3), focusing on Venezuela, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other topics.
- A major statement is planned to be released at 2:00 PM EST (3:00 AM Beijing time on December 3) after the meeting, with speculation involving Russia-Ukraine negotiations or actions in Venezuela.
2. Situation in Venezuela
- Military Deployment: The U.S. has assembled 15,000 soldiers and the 'USS Ford' carrier strike group in the Caribbean, with the operation code-named 'Southern Spear', targeting the Maduro regime.
1. Meeting Time and Agenda
- Trump hosted a cabinet meeting at 11:30 AM EST on December 2 (12:30 AM Beijing time on December 3), focusing on Venezuela, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other topics.
- A major statement is planned to be released at 2:00 PM EST (3:00 AM Beijing time on December 3) after the meeting, with speculation involving Russia-Ukraine negotiations or actions in Venezuela.
2. Situation in Venezuela
- Military Deployment: The U.S. has assembled 15,000 soldiers and the 'USS Ford' carrier strike group in the Caribbean, with the operation code-named 'Southern Spear', targeting the Maduro regime.
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Tracking global hotspots to help you seize investment opportunities
🌍 1. Global monetary policy shifts to easing
1. Strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts
- Probability of a rate cut in December exceeds 84.7% (CME data); if implemented, it will promote global liquidity easing.
- US Treasury yields decline (10-year falls below 4%), reducing financing costs and boosting risk asset valuations.
2. Multiple central banks follow up with easing
- India: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, coupled with high economic growth (Q3 GDP growth rate of 7%), foreign capital inflow, stock market profit growth is likely to accelerate to 14%.
- UK: Inflation retreat paves the way for rate cuts, may reduce rates by 25 basis points in December to alleviate corporate debt pressure.
1. Strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts
- Probability of a rate cut in December exceeds 84.7% (CME data); if implemented, it will promote global liquidity easing.
- US Treasury yields decline (10-year falls below 4%), reducing financing costs and boosting risk asset valuations.
2. Multiple central banks follow up with easing
- India: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, coupled with high economic growth (Q3 GDP growth rate of 7%), foreign capital inflow, stock market profit growth is likely to accelerate to 14%.
- UK: Inflation retreat paves the way for rate cuts, may reduce rates by 25 basis points in December to alleviate corporate debt pressure.
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After the clouds clear, the moon becomes bright
Regarding Powell's speech at the Hoover Institution and the prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December
1. Core points of Powell's recent speech
Powell's latest remarks mainly focus on the trade-offs between economic balance, inflation risks, and the job market, with the following key points:
1. Cautious policy stance
Emphasize the current inflation risk leaning upwards (driven by tariff policies), while the employment risk leans towards weakness (employment growth has significantly slowed, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%), therefore the Federal Reserve needs to find a balance between the dual objectives. He clearly stated: "Monetary policy does not have a risk-free path."
2. Downplay the persistence of inflation
Powell believes that the recent increase in commodity prices is mainly driven by tariff policies, representing a "one-time price shock," rather than persistent inflation. However, he also warned that if the supply chain recovery is delayed (such as in the automotive industry), inflationary pressures may be prolonged.
Powell's latest remarks mainly focus on the trade-offs between economic balance, inflation risks, and the job market, with the following key points:
1. Cautious policy stance
Emphasize the current inflation risk leaning upwards (driven by tariff policies), while the employment risk leans towards weakness (employment growth has significantly slowed, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%), therefore the Federal Reserve needs to find a balance between the dual objectives. He clearly stated: "Monetary policy does not have a risk-free path."
2. Downplay the persistence of inflation
Powell believes that the recent increase in commodity prices is mainly driven by tariff policies, representing a "one-time price shock," rather than persistent inflation. However, he also warned that if the supply chain recovery is delayed (such as in the automotive industry), inflationary pressures may be prolonged.
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Regarding Powell's speech at the Hoover Institution and the prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December
1. Core points of Powell's recent speech
Powell's latest remarks mainly focus on the trade-offs between economic balance, inflation risks, and the job market, with the following key points:
1. Cautious policy stance
Emphasize the current inflation risk leaning upwards (driven by tariff policies), while the employment risk leans towards weakness (employment growth has significantly slowed, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%), therefore the Federal Reserve needs to find a balance between the dual objectives. He clearly stated: "Monetary policy does not have a risk-free path."
2. Downplay the persistence of inflation
Powell believes that the recent increase in commodity prices is mainly driven by tariff policies, representing a "one-time price shock," rather than persistent inflation. However, he also warned that if the supply chain recovery is delayed (such as in the automotive industry), inflationary pressures may be prolonged.
Powell's latest remarks mainly focus on the trade-offs between economic balance, inflation risks, and the job market, with the following key points:
1. Cautious policy stance
Emphasize the current inflation risk leaning upwards (driven by tariff policies), while the employment risk leans towards weakness (employment growth has significantly slowed, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%), therefore the Federal Reserve needs to find a balance between the dual objectives. He clearly stated: "Monetary policy does not have a risk-free path."
2. Downplay the persistence of inflation
Powell believes that the recent increase in commodity prices is mainly driven by tariff policies, representing a "one-time price shock," rather than persistent inflation. However, he also warned that if the supply chain recovery is delayed (such as in the automotive industry), inflationary pressures may be prolonged.
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Objective analysis of today's 'black swan event'
Don't listen to every rumor; wisdom stops gossip!
1. Regarding Powell's resignation issue
1. Authenticity of resignation rumors: The social media rumor that 'Powell will resign after the emergency meeting on December 1' lacks official confirmation. The Federal Reserve's official website shows that his schedule for that day includes attending a Hoover Institution memorial lecture with no emergency meeting scheduled, and Powell has previously stated multiple times that he will serve until the end of his term in 2026.
2. Trump's candidate dynamics: Trump has stated that he will soon announce the nomination for the next chairman. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has publicly expressed his willingness to accept the nomination, but the likelihood of Powell resigning early is extremely low.
1. Regarding Powell's resignation issue
1. Authenticity of resignation rumors: The social media rumor that 'Powell will resign after the emergency meeting on December 1' lacks official confirmation. The Federal Reserve's official website shows that his schedule for that day includes attending a Hoover Institution memorial lecture with no emergency meeting scheduled, and Powell has previously stated multiple times that he will serve until the end of his term in 2026.
2. Trump's candidate dynamics: Trump has stated that he will soon announce the nomination for the next chairman. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has publicly expressed his willingness to accept the nomination, but the likelihood of Powell resigning early is extremely low.
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#币安实盘合约 $BTC
Is the win rate more important in contracts? Or is the profit margin more important? I want to say that staying alive is the most important! Challenging a contract for 100 consecutive wins, currently achieved 35 consecutive wins! Let's witness together!
Is the win rate more important in contracts? Or is the profit margin more important? I want to say that staying alive is the most important! Challenging a contract for 100 consecutive wins, currently achieved 35 consecutive wins! Let's witness together!
Trading Marks
13 trades
BTCUSDT
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Low-price accumulation, gradually reducing positions.
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The Sun Wukong from someone else's side has just joined a new trading platform, and these on-chain tokens are all scams; going in now is just looking for death.
Sun Wukong is online
Sun has made a move, and this time it is actually Chinese Sun Wukong. Following his usual style of 'running faster than anyone else', it is likely to be a wild pull followed by a sudden crash.
However, in the early stages, there is often some profit to be made, brothers, should we go for it or not? 😏
Sun has made a move, and this time it is actually Chinese Sun Wukong. Following his usual style of 'running faster than anyone else', it is likely to be a wild pull followed by a sudden crash.
However, in the early stages, there is often some profit to be made, brothers, should we go for it or not? 😏
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I can claim this airdrop with 150 points, why do you need 190
Family, who understands? I spent two months earning points in July and August, and the 4 airdrops I received were not enough to cover the losses. After that, there was a risk control for half a month, and I stopped earning. By the end of September, everyone said things were getting better, not only were the airdrops large, but the points requirement was also low, so I quickly started earning again. But seeing the threshold points increasing day by day, am I being played again?
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