Core Forecast and Impact Path
1. Data Expectations
- Unemployment Rate: The market generally expects it to remain at 4.4% (if it breaks 4.5%, it will strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts).
- New Jobs: Merging data from October to November, the market is concerned whether the weak trend will continue (September saw an increase of 119,000 but the unemployment rate rose).
2. The transmission logic of virtual currencies
- If the data is weak (unemployment rate > 4.4% or new jobs < 50,000):
→ The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in 2026 increases → The dollar weakens + Risk appetite rebounds → Short-term benefits for BTC/ETH rebound.
- If the data is strong (new jobs > 80,000 and unemployment rate ≤ 4.4%):
→ Delay in interest rate cuts → Expectations of liquidity tightening rise → The crypto market is under pressure, beware of leveraged liquidation sharp drops.
3. Technical Constraints
- BTC currently faces key resistance in the 92,000-94,500 range, ETH is constrained by the psychological level of $3,000, with continued demand for overbought correction.
Strategy Recommendations
- Short-term: Avoid high-leverage operations within 1 hour after data release, pay attention to whether BTC can hold the support at $92,000.
- Medium-term: Weak data may reinforce Bitcoin's 'safe-haven narrative', and corrections can be accumulated in batches (focusing on the 2026 interest rate cut cycle).
Summary: Whether the unemployment rate breaks the threshold (4.5%) is key to market pricing, data noise may amplify volatility, but policy expectations remain the dominant factor.
