The public data presented by the copy trader 'Invincible Little Trader' reveals a highly misleading contradiction: the platform shows a 30-day win rate of 100%, a 30-day return rate of 51.32%, and a total profit and loss of +2633.16 USDT, with labels indicating 'High Win Rate', 'High Profit-Loss Ratio', and 'Stable Drawdown'; however, core data reveals that 147 copy traders lost money, with only 24 making a profit (loss rate of 86%), and the trader has not executed any trades for 22 days. This phenomenon of 'eye-catching on the surface, but difficult to profit from copy trading' stems from its extreme trading style and the adaptability issues of the copy trading mechanism, which need to be rationally analyzed before making decisions.
1. Objective analysis of trading characteristics: short-selling dominant wave profit logic
The core of the “Invincible Small Trader” profit is “precise short-selling + long-term holding,” the strategy has distinct directional and cyclical characteristics:
1. Core advantages: outstanding short-selling ability, excellent profit-loss ratio
Extreme directional preference: short trading 37 times, win rate 67.6%, long trading only 8 times, win rate 12.5%, over 90% of profits come from shorting;
Representative work: BTCUSDT short position opened on October 23, 2025, held for 25 days with a profit of 15,954.88 USDT, accounting for 100% of the total profit and loss over 30 days;
Significant profit-loss ratio advantage: maximum profit (15,954.88 USDT) is 3.35 times the maximum loss (4,765.49 USDT), even with a win rate of only 52.94%, overall profitability can still be achieved.
2. Trading style: primarily swing trading, with sufficient holding patience
Average holding time 2 days 19 hours, 62% of trades held for more than 24 hours, aligning with the self-description of “4-hour daily line level orders,” typical swing trading;
Long-term holding of profitable trades: the currently held ETHUSDT short position has been open for more than a month and a half, with floating profits exceeding 10,000 USDT, reflecting the strategy logic of “letting profits run.”
Moderate trading frequency: 9 active trading days out of 30 days, 16 long and short trades, not classified as high-frequency trading, requiring high patience from followers.
3. Asset and capital status: focus on mainstream coins, profits have been realized
Asset preference concentrated: 48.89% of positions in ETH, 26.67% in BTC, both being high liquidity mainstream coins, conforming to the “stable” label;
Medium capital strength: margin 31,089.27 USDT, asset management scale 53,551.76 USDT, cumulative outflow (47,000 USDT) exceeds inflow, proving that profits are real and have been realized.
2. Core causes of following losses: strategy limitations and practical operation gaps
The core of the 86% follower losses is not due to strategy failure, but rather a combination of the following factors leading to “profitability difficulties in replication”:
1. Strategy limitations: weak ability to go long, reliant on market trends
Long trades 7 lose 1 win, once the market enters a long-term uptrend, its core short-selling strategy will fail, potentially leading to consecutive losses;
Profits concentrated in single trades: total profits over 30 days completely rely on 1 BTC short position, strategy stability depends on “accurately capturing large-scale downward trends,” ordinary followers find it difficult to time the entry.
2. Obstacles to practical following: slippage, timing and risk control mismatch
Entry timing deviation: swing trading has high requirements for entry points, followers may enter during market middle or retracement periods, missing core profit stages;
Slippage and leverage issues: large short positions in mainstream coins may trigger short-term market fluctuations, leading to worse execution prices for followers; if the follower's leverage and capital do not match those of the lead trader, it is easy to be forced to stop loss during normal fluctuations;
Insufficient risk control transparency: traders “do not display current positions,” making it impossible for followers to monitor position status in real time, making it difficult to adjust risk control strategies proactively.
3. Self-risk control hazards of the trader: unclear stop-loss rules
Exists “holding single” suspicion: the loss position of going long on ETHUSDT exceeds 2 days, ultimately losing 4,765.49 USDT, accounting for 15% of the current margin, indicating a lack of clear stop-loss discipline in a weak direction;
Single trade risk exposure is large: maximum single trade loss accounts for a high proportion of margin, if followers do not set stop-loss independently, they may face huge losses.
3. Rational following suggestions: target audience and practical guidelines
Based on publicly available data, the following suggestions focus on “controllable risks, strategy matching,” and do not constitute investment recommendations:
1. Target audience profile
Suitable groups: recognize short-selling logic, hold a bearish view on the market in the short term; high risk tolerance, can accept drawdowns of over 5%; patient, able to wait for profits in weekly/monthly terms as aggressive investors;
Unsuitable groups: beginners, conservative investors, those seeking stable returns; optimistic about long-term market growth, cannot accept short-selling strategies; too small capital (less than 5,000 USDT), difficult to bear slippage and fluctuations.
2. Core practical strategies
Capital allocation: only use up to 5% of personal investment portfolio funds to follow trades, small amounts for testing, do not over-invest, and prepare for “short-term floating losses”;
Following model: prioritize fixed ratio following, precisely match the position ratio of the lead trader, avoid risk exposure mismatch caused by fixed amount following;
Risk control settings (key):
Total account stop-loss: set a total stop-loss line of 20%-30%, immediately stop following if losses meet the criteria, do not blindly follow “holding single”;
Single trade stop-loss: each follow trade independently sets a stop-loss of 15%-25%, especially for long trades, to avoid expanding losses due to the weak long ability of the lead trader;
Entry timing: avoid blindly entering during the lead trader's “operation stagnation period” (currently 22 days without closing), it is recommended to wait for their new trades to open before following, reducing timing deviation.
3. Continuous tracking and exit mechanism
Monitoring focus:
Market trends: if BTC and ETH enter a clear upward channel, immediately stop following;
Trader performance: if there are more than 2 consecutive long losses, or if the short win rate falls below 60%, reevaluate the strategy's effectiveness;
Exit signal:
Follower account losses reach preset stop-loss line;
Lead trader shifts to increase long trading frequency;
Single loss exceeding 5,000 USDT or drawdown exceeding 10%.
Summary
The case of the “Invincible Small Trader” confirms the logic of “high win rate ≠ high following profit” in crypto trading: their short-selling ability is outstanding, profit-loss ratio is excellent, but strategy limitations are strong, and the threshold for following is high. The 86% loss rate warns us that the core of following is “strategy matching + self-managed risk control,” not blindly believing surface data.
This report is based on publicly available data for objective analysis and does not constitute investment recommendations. Investors need to make rational decisions based on their own risk preferences and capital conditions, always prioritizing the safety of the principal, and avoid being misled by short-term significant profits.
[This report is a summary version, complete analysis report can be obtained using the small tool on the homepage]
