Fed Chair Race Takes a Dramatic Turn! Hassett Makes a Comeback to First Place
The race for the next Fed Chair has entered a heated phase
Powell will step down in May 2026, and Trump is urgently seeking a "submissive dove" successor
A quick interest rate cut is needed, and communication is key!
Currently, the two most prominent figures, Hassett supports major rate cuts, while Warsh has more Fed experience but is also dovish. Other candidates (like Waller and Bowman) have long been out of the race.
The latest market prediction (Kalshi) shows that Trump confidant Kevin Hassett's probability has rebounded to 46-50%, successfully surpassing former Fed governor Kevin Warsh's 39-44% to reclaim the top spot!
Looking back at this dramatic tug-of-war:
1. Early December: Hassett led (70-86%).
2. December 12: After Trump's statement, Warsh soared to 40%, and Hassett dropped to <60%.
3. December 15-16: Reports indicated Trump’s allies pushed back against Hassett for being “too close to the White House” (concerned about Fed independence), Warsh briefly took the lead (48% vs 38%).
4. December 16 latest: Hassett rebounded, returning to first place (about 46-50% vs Warsh 39-44%). The market believes Trump still prefers Hassett's loyalty, but Warsh has greater support from Wall Street (like Jamie Dimon hinting at a preference).
This is not just a personnel battle; it is also a future monetary policy indicator! A dovish administration = more rate cuts benefiting the stock market? Or will a crisis of independence push up turmoil in the bond market?
Who are you betting on? Will Hassett win easily, or will Warsh make a comeback?