📌 Core Signal
1. Bitcoin Short-Term Trend
$BTC Current Price: $86,402.39 (↑0.17%)
Market Structure: After yesterday's sharp decline, prices are weakly consolidating around $86,000, with the overall downtrend unchanged. The current slight rebound lacks volume and is more likely a technical correction dominated by bears rather than a trend reversal.
Liquidation Warning: Strong resistance above is at the previous support conversion area of $88,000; the key support below is at the psychological level of $85,000. If this level is lost, it may open a downward channel towards the technical support area of $82,000.
Liquidation Overview: The funding rate remains at a deeply negative value of -0.0012, indicating extremely pessimistic market sentiment and strong bearish forces. The open interest has slightly decreased (-0.69%) but still remains at a high of $27.7 billion, showing that high-leverage speculation is ongoing, and the market could trigger violent fluctuations at any time due to macro events. → Market is bear-dominated, waiting for central bank decisions to ignite the trend.
2. Operation Window
Exchange reserves continue to increase slightly (+0.03%), and yesterday's net inflow reached 890.88 BTC, indicating that potential selling pressure still exists. At the same time, the exchange whale ratio has risen by 1.03%, showing that large holders are transferring their funds to exchanges, indicating clear intentions of hedging or liquidating.
Support levels reference: Upper resistance $88,000, lower core support $85,000.
Funding conditions: MVRV ratio has fallen to 1.59, market valuation has cooled, but it has not yet entered the historical bottom range, and downside risks still exist. Continuous inflow into exchanges is the main factor suppressing price rebounds, and the market focus has completely shifted to the upcoming decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.
3. Macro Risks
Divergence in monetary policy expectations between Europe and the U.S.: U.K. inflation significantly cooled in November, and the market expects a rate cut on December 19, which theoretically benefits liquidity in risk assets. However, worsening German economic data exacerbates the situation, pushing the U.S. dollar index higher and creating short-term pressure on the crypto market.
The Bank of Japan has become the biggest black swan: Market focus has shifted to the December 19 Bank of Japan rate decision, with increasing concerns about Japan ending its negative interest rates and starting a rate hike cycle. This move will impact global liquidity and is the biggest macro headwind currently facing the crypto market.
Geopolitical and market risks intertwine: The U.S. threatens new sanctions against Russia, raising oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums, which may amplify volatility in the crypto market. At the same time, the A-shares market has become more active, which may have a certain capital diversion effect on the crypto market.
⚠Must-watch Events
【December 19】Bank of Japan Rate Decision: Global market focus, if there is an unexpected rate hike or hawkish signal, it could trigger a tightening of global liquidity, severely impacting the crypto market and other risk assets.
【December 19】Bank of England Rate Decision: The market has basically digested expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut. Be cautious of a 'sell the fact' market, or a market correction if the central bank unexpectedly holds its position.
【Tomorrow 21:30】U.S. November Retail Sales MoM: As a key data point for assessing economic health, if the data is worse than expected (-0.1%), it will strengthen the recession narrative and affect the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path.
🚀Strategy Suggestion
Aggressive: Risk is extremely high before major macro decisions, not recommended to take large positions. Consider looking for topping signals to short lightly when prices encounter resistance in the $87,800-$88,000 range. Stop loss: $88,500; Target: $85,500 and below.
Cautious: Stay in cash and wait for the December 19 decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. Maintaining patience is the best strategy until the macro direction is settled. The market will provide a clearer direction post-decision, at which point we can act accordingly.
For those in cash: Maintain patience and leave all decisions until after this week's macro uncertainty is resolved. Not trading before major turning points is the best trade.