📌Key Signal
1. Short-term Trend of Bitcoin
Current Price: $90,381.01 (↓1.69%)
Market Structure: The price has retreated from the high, but open contracts remain at a high of $28 billion and have slightly increased (↑1.33%), while the funding rate has soared over 52% within 24 hours. This is a typical divergence of 'price drop and leverage increase', indicating that yesterday's extreme bullish sentiment has not been alleviated, and a large number of highly leveraged longs have fallen into floating losses. The pressure for market correction is rapidly increasing.
Liquidation Warning: The key resistance level above is around $93,000; the $90,000 integer mark below is the core lifeline of the current long-short battle. If it effectively breaks down, it may trigger a chain liquidation of highly leveraged longs, causing the price to quickly dive to the $88,000 support area.
Liquidation overview: Prices have retreated from above $92,000, and chasing high longs are now facing liquidation risks. The current market leverage is extremely high, with risks of a “longs killing longs” type of stomp driven by emotions increasing sharply, and short-term downside risks significantly outweighing upside potential.
2. Operating window
Strong risk warning: The funding rate has surged over 52% in 24 hours, with the exchange whale ratio rising to a high of 0.9671, indicating that market leverage is overheated to an extreme degree, representing a high-risk liquidation area. Price corrections without a decrease in leverage are typical adjustment signals.
Support level reference: $90,000 is the first support level. If it falls, strong support is expected around $88,000, a previous area of concentrated positions, which may attract some buying.
Funding game: The derivatives market is dominated by extremely exuberant leveraged bulls, facing internal stomp risks. However, the spot market has recorded a net outflow again (-600.78 BTC), indicating that long-term investors are still absorbing on dips and withdrawing coins, creating a stark contrast between short-term speculation and long-term hoarding behavior.
3. Macroeconomic risks
“Hawkish rate cut” risk: The market is holding its breath waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision, with the core risk being that the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points but hint at a very slow pace of rate cuts in 2026. This “dovish outcome not meeting expectations” may be interpreted by the market as “good news fully priced in,” which could catalyze a significant correction in risk assets in the current high-leverage environment.
Global central bank policy divergence: The Federal Reserve is “uniquely dovish,” while the European and Australian central banks are leaning hawkish, creating depreciation pressure on the dollar, which is favorable for BTC priced in dollars. However, if major global economies maintain high interest rates due to anti-inflation efforts, this may suppress global total demand, and support for risk assets may not be comprehensive.
Market sentiment connection: Signs of easing tensions between China and the U.S. in the AI chip sector are a positive factor. However, ahead of the decision, global risk sentiment has turned cautious (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are down, gold is up), which may temporarily divert some funds that could flow into the crypto market.
⚠ Must-follow events
[Tomorrow morning] Federal Reserve interest rate decision, policy statement, and economic projections summary (SEP): This week's ultimate event that will determine the market direction will decide whether the current high leverage can continue or be thoroughly cleaned out.
[Continued] $90,000 support level battle: The gains and losses at this position will directly determine whether there will be large-scale chain liquidations in the short term.
[Continued] Derivatives data monitoring: Closely watch whether the funding rate cools and the changes in open contracts, as these are key indicators for assessing the market's deleveraging process and whether risks are being released.
🚀 Simplified strategy pool
Aggressive traders: The current position carries extremely high opening risks and poor risk-reward ratios. It is not advised to chase high prices for long positions; shorting faces extremely high funding cost risks. It is better to wait for prices to break below $90,000, observe whether there are signs of volume and price stabilization around $88,000, and then attempt to make a small bet for a rebound.
Cautious traders: Continue to maintain a flat position and observe. The current market is a typical “Gods fighting” situation, where risks far outweigh opportunities. Patiently wait for the Federal Reserve's decision to land and for the market to complete self-deleveraging (significant drop in funding rates) before seeking safer entry points on the right side.
Flat holders: The best strategy is to “wait and see.” The intertwining of macro uncertainty and extreme internal leverage poses high risks. Waiting is currently the most advantageous choice, planning further after market volatility and leverage return to normal levels.
