A piece of news has come in:
The Financial Times of the UK quoted two informed sources reporting that despite Trump's decision to allow the export of Nvidia's advanced H200 chips to China, China will still limit the use of these chips. The report stated that China has been discussing how to allow limited use of Nvidia's AI chip H200.
After this news was released, US stock futures fell to an intraday low. Nvidia's stock price rose as much as 2% in pre-market trading, but narrowed its gains after the Financial Times report was released, and the stock prices of AMD and Intel also narrowed their gains.
· First, the reason why US stocks were able to avoid amplifying the decline yesterday was largely due to the news of 'allowing the export of H200 chips to China'—but this news has reversed today. The US opens the door, while China locks it. It can be used, but not recklessly, not fully, and not on a large scale. The release of the H200 has limited significance for Nvidia. The real key is whether the US will allow Nvidia to export top chips like Blackwell and Rubin. Nvidia has risen 40% this year, far exceeding the 16% of the S&P 500—which means the market was already overly optimistic about Nvidia's 'outrageously good' future expectations. Any news that makes the market feel that its prospects are being 'interfered with by repeated ups and downs' will be magnified.
· Second, Trump is very sensitive to the market's ups and downs, which may be related to the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields (U.S. fiscal risks are being repriced). The stock market fell slightly yesterday, immediately releasing good news. This morning, Trump released good news again—stating that he might lower tariffs on 'some' goods, but the market's reaction was tepid. Yesterday's rebound was based on news, and today the reversal of that news has pushed it back down. This indicates that funds are increasingly unwilling to chase short-term news fluctuations.
Today's close is crucial; a significant drop might actually become good news—because it would make the Federal Reserve seriously consider whether to really implement 'hawkish rate cuts', and instead seek ways to stabilize the market.
The current pain point for the Federal Reserve is that the nominal financial conditions index is tightening (because U.S. Treasury yields are rising), but inflation has not completely gone down. So they dare not give the market a 'super dovish' signal directly in December; the only space is to be a bit 'dovish' in wording.
Tonight's close is not a trading day, but a policy day.#美联储FOMC会议 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
