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The Bloodbath of Bitcoin❗
Market Outlook: (Is there a major move at the 80,000 iron bottom?)
Given the macro factors in the market, is 200,000 Bitcoin just a pipe dream? This is an unknown, and moreover, we who are in the game are relatively blind and cannot look that far ahead, yes or no?
Phased Madness: By the end of 2023 and the end of 2024, both are on explosive upward trends, extreme one-sidedness. Looking back, will the end of 2025 be similar? If I have to give an answer, it is unknown. Conversely, the first alert given by the current trends is (crazy liquidation). When prices are high, liquidity becomes poor; at low prices, human nature can be better understood, accumulating more. What the market plays is human nature, which is an unchanging principle throughout history. Of course, this is also the market giving me a certain sense of the game, the early birds catch the worm, while the latecomers are left behind. One must plan for the long term.
Predictive Remarks: 80,600 cannot be considered the iron bottom; rather, it gives me the feeling that the probability of a double dip is gradually increasing. By carefully examining the structural changes during the previous crashes and surges, it can be seen as a definitional dimension for buying and selling. Testing the bottom at 80,600, with large fluctuations in the daily structure, and the line indicators contracting, if we test the 95,000 area multiple times in the short term, can we assume that there is a certain box structure here? As for whether it will break through 100,000, that is not something to worry about at this stage. Since the limits are already set, has the stop-loss been established? Then adjust your profit-loss ratio for taking profits; only by doing so will there be answers.
Conclusion: For intraday small positions, consider shorting in the 90,000 area, aiming for a break below 80,000. Looking further, still short at 92,000-93,000 with the same take-profit position. As for the stop-loss, it depends on whether you considered adding positions before opening a trade. In any case, treat 95,000 as the best stop-loss level.
If you have ideas, can you share them? Scan the QR code at the bottom to enter the discussion group or add friends; all enthusiasts are welcome to discuss. Rebate link: https://www.maxweb.cab/join?ref=R9RG1RK7 Invitation Code: R9RG1RK7 Directly full.
#ETH走势分析 $BTC
Market Outlook: (Is there a major move at the 80,000 iron bottom?)
Given the macro factors in the market, is 200,000 Bitcoin just a pipe dream? This is an unknown, and moreover, we who are in the game are relatively blind and cannot look that far ahead, yes or no?
Phased Madness: By the end of 2023 and the end of 2024, both are on explosive upward trends, extreme one-sidedness. Looking back, will the end of 2025 be similar? If I have to give an answer, it is unknown. Conversely, the first alert given by the current trends is (crazy liquidation). When prices are high, liquidity becomes poor; at low prices, human nature can be better understood, accumulating more. What the market plays is human nature, which is an unchanging principle throughout history. Of course, this is also the market giving me a certain sense of the game, the early birds catch the worm, while the latecomers are left behind. One must plan for the long term.
Predictive Remarks: 80,600 cannot be considered the iron bottom; rather, it gives me the feeling that the probability of a double dip is gradually increasing. By carefully examining the structural changes during the previous crashes and surges, it can be seen as a definitional dimension for buying and selling. Testing the bottom at 80,600, with large fluctuations in the daily structure, and the line indicators contracting, if we test the 95,000 area multiple times in the short term, can we assume that there is a certain box structure here? As for whether it will break through 100,000, that is not something to worry about at this stage. Since the limits are already set, has the stop-loss been established? Then adjust your profit-loss ratio for taking profits; only by doing so will there be answers.
Conclusion: For intraday small positions, consider shorting in the 90,000 area, aiming for a break below 80,000. Looking further, still short at 92,000-93,000 with the same take-profit position. As for the stop-loss, it depends on whether you considered adding positions before opening a trade. In any case, treat 95,000 as the best stop-loss level.
If you have ideas, can you share them? Scan the QR code at the bottom to enter the discussion group or add friends; all enthusiasts are welcome to discuss. Rebate link: https://www.maxweb.cab/join?ref=R9RG1RK7 Invitation Code: R9RG1RK7 Directly full.
#ETH走势分析 $BTC
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21:30, a shocking scene occurred
- The 'truth' about this non-farm: neither good nor bad, but 'unreliable'.
Beijing time 21:30, the U.S. non-farm data is delayed:
- October non-farm decreased 105,000 (October employment declined, more due to 'political events', not an economic collapse, with limited real implications for the economy)
- November non-farm increased 64,000 - higher than the expected 50,000
- November unemployment rate 4.6% (government shutdown, temporary unemployment) - higher than the expected 4.4%
This is an 'incomplete non-farm', due to the U.S. government shutdown lasting 43 days, which prevented data collection from households, so it will not include the October unemployment rate and other indicators. What you see this time is not a 'clean data', but a patchwork version of non-farm.
Beijing time 21:30, the U.S. non-farm data is delayed:
- October non-farm decreased 105,000 (October employment declined, more due to 'political events', not an economic collapse, with limited real implications for the economy)
- November non-farm increased 64,000 - higher than the expected 50,000
- November unemployment rate 4.6% (government shutdown, temporary unemployment) - higher than the expected 4.4%
This is an 'incomplete non-farm', due to the U.S. government shutdown lasting 43 days, which prevented data collection from households, so it will not include the October unemployment rate and other indicators. What you see this time is not a 'clean data', but a patchwork version of non-farm.
See original
If it were you
What would you do❓ Next step test 80000❗
$BTC #美联储降息
Can we run a part first? There has already been a 5% drop today, forewarned is forearmed.
What would you do❓ Next step test 80000❗
$BTC #美联储降息
Can we run a part first? There has already been a 5% drop today, forewarned is forearmed.
The Bloodbath of Bitcoin❗
Market Outlook: (Is there a major move at the 80,000 iron bottom?)
Given the macro factors in the market, is 200,000 Bitcoin just a pipe dream? This is an unknown, and moreover, we who are in the game are relatively blind and cannot look that far ahead, yes or no?
Phased Madness: By the end of 2023 and the end of 2024, both are on explosive upward trends, extreme one-sidedness. Looking back, will the end of 2025 be similar? If I have to give an answer, it is unknown. Conversely, the first alert given by the current trends is (crazy liquidation). When prices are high, liquidity becomes poor; at low prices, human nature can be better understood, accumulating more. What the market plays is human nature, which is an unchanging principle throughout history. Of course, this is also the market giving me a certain sense of the game, the early birds catch the worm, while the latecomers are left behind. One must plan for the long term.
Predictive Remarks: 80,600 cannot be considered the iron bottom; rather, it gives me the feeling that the probability of a double dip is gradually increasing. By carefully examining the structural changes during the previous crashes and surges, it can be seen as a definitional dimension for buying and selling. Testing the bottom at 80,600, with large fluctuations in the daily structure, and the line indicators contracting, if we test the 95,000 area multiple times in the short term, can we assume that there is a certain box structure here? As for whether it will break through 100,000, that is not something to worry about at this stage. Since the limits are already set, has the stop-loss been established? Then adjust your profit-loss ratio for taking profits; only by doing so will there be answers.
Conclusion: For intraday small positions, consider shorting in the 90,000 area, aiming for a break below 80,000. Looking further, still short at 92,000-93,000 with the same take-profit position. As for the stop-loss, it depends on whether you considered adding positions before opening a trade. In any case, treat 95,000 as the best stop-loss level.
If you have ideas, can you share them? Scan the QR code at the bottom to enter the discussion group or add friends; all enthusiasts are welcome to discuss. Rebate link: https://www.maxweb.cab/join?ref=R9RG1RK7 Invitation Code: R9RG1RK7 Directly full.
#ETH走势分析 $BTC
Market Outlook: (Is there a major move at the 80,000 iron bottom?)
Given the macro factors in the market, is 200,000 Bitcoin just a pipe dream? This is an unknown, and moreover, we who are in the game are relatively blind and cannot look that far ahead, yes or no?
Phased Madness: By the end of 2023 and the end of 2024, both are on explosive upward trends, extreme one-sidedness. Looking back, will the end of 2025 be similar? If I have to give an answer, it is unknown. Conversely, the first alert given by the current trends is (crazy liquidation). When prices are high, liquidity becomes poor; at low prices, human nature can be better understood, accumulating more. What the market plays is human nature, which is an unchanging principle throughout history. Of course, this is also the market giving me a certain sense of the game, the early birds catch the worm, while the latecomers are left behind. One must plan for the long term.
Predictive Remarks: 80,600 cannot be considered the iron bottom; rather, it gives me the feeling that the probability of a double dip is gradually increasing. By carefully examining the structural changes during the previous crashes and surges, it can be seen as a definitional dimension for buying and selling. Testing the bottom at 80,600, with large fluctuations in the daily structure, and the line indicators contracting, if we test the 95,000 area multiple times in the short term, can we assume that there is a certain box structure here? As for whether it will break through 100,000, that is not something to worry about at this stage. Since the limits are already set, has the stop-loss been established? Then adjust your profit-loss ratio for taking profits; only by doing so will there be answers.
Conclusion: For intraday small positions, consider shorting in the 90,000 area, aiming for a break below 80,000. Looking further, still short at 92,000-93,000 with the same take-profit position. As for the stop-loss, it depends on whether you considered adding positions before opening a trade. In any case, treat 95,000 as the best stop-loss level.
If you have ideas, can you share them? Scan the QR code at the bottom to enter the discussion group or add friends; all enthusiasts are welcome to discuss. Rebate link: https://www.maxweb.cab/join?ref=R9RG1RK7 Invitation Code: R9RG1RK7 Directly full.
#ETH走势分析 $BTC
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Today, all responsibility lies with the Federal Reserve
Before the non-farm data is released, global markets show a one-sided trend: Asian stock markets, US stock futures, and gold all show significant declines.
This time it doesn't seem like a leak trend, but rather unease, because this non-farm data is too complex. If it were a leak, the market would take a direction; now it is a complete position reduction.
First, the data is not very reliable and not tradable.
Data for October and November is released simultaneously, but there was a government shutdown in between. Moreover, the October unemployment rate is missing (not released). It's like a teacher holding a report card that has been soaked in water and still having to assess the student's level. When a core macro indicator loses its interpretability, it will create volatility instead of reducing uncertainty.
This time it doesn't seem like a leak trend, but rather unease, because this non-farm data is too complex. If it were a leak, the market would take a direction; now it is a complete position reduction.
First, the data is not very reliable and not tradable.
Data for October and November is released simultaneously, but there was a government shutdown in between. Moreover, the October unemployment rate is missing (not released). It's like a teacher holding a report card that has been soaked in water and still having to assess the student's level. When a core macro indicator loses its interpretability, it will create volatility instead of reducing uncertainty.
See original
Late at night, a gentle drop, as if facing a great enemy
——This is not the occurrence of a risk event, but the market is 'preparing for a risk event.' The global market has entered a 'state of alert,' waiting for volatility to explode.
1. Gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin are expressing 'risk' in three different ways. · Gold seems to be the only asset that rose on Monday, but the increase is not significant. Every rebound sees someone selling, yet it just won't drop — the market still doesn't dare to 'fully hedge,' and no one is willing to sell it. · U.S. crude oil has fallen to $56, and 'demand confidence' is disappearing. Essentially, it's saying 'don't expect the economy to naturally warm up anymore.'
1. Gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin are expressing 'risk' in three different ways. · Gold seems to be the only asset that rose on Monday, but the increase is not significant. Every rebound sees someone selling, yet it just won't drop — the market still doesn't dare to 'fully hedge,' and no one is willing to sell it. · U.S. crude oil has fallen to $56, and 'demand confidence' is disappearing. Essentially, it's saying 'don't expect the economy to naturally warm up anymore.'
See original
Waiting for a bullet to land
The Asia-Pacific stock market has seen a comprehensive decline, following the downward trend of the US stock market last Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Dow Jones Index have similar declines, while the Hang Seng Index and the Nasdaq Index also have comparable declines. However, gold and US stock futures rose during the Asian trading session, while the US dollar fell—indicating that the selling pressure triggered last Friday by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials has eased, and the market will soon shift its focus to non-farm data.
The decline in the Asia-Pacific stock market does not equal a new round of panic, but rather a 'passive alignment with the US stock market' (risk appetite being calibrated), and is essentially still a time zone effect. Asia-Pacific today has merely completed a 'correction,' without any acceleration of emotions or liquidity crunch.
The decline in the Asia-Pacific stock market does not equal a new round of panic, but rather a 'passive alignment with the US stock market' (risk appetite being calibrated), and is essentially still a time zone effect. Asia-Pacific today has merely completed a 'correction,' without any acceleration of emotions or liquidity crunch.
See original
Bang, the sound of a crash was heard
Late at night, the sound of a crash was heard.
- The US stock market fell across the board, with the Nasdaq index dropping 2% at one point;
- Gold prices plunged nearly $100 from the session high, giving back most of the day's losses, falling below $4,300;
- US Treasury bonds fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 4.2%;
- Bitcoin once again fell below $90,000 during the session.
First, Friday's close is very important, it is the market's second pricing for 'interest rate cuts', it is a confirmation of belief, and once it closes down, the market will associate it with anything unfavorable. Just like a well-known figure collapsing, once the filter is shattered, all subsequent information is negatively interpreted.
- The US stock market fell across the board, with the Nasdaq index dropping 2% at one point;
- Gold prices plunged nearly $100 from the session high, giving back most of the day's losses, falling below $4,300;
- US Treasury bonds fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 4.2%;
- Bitcoin once again fell below $90,000 during the session.
First, Friday's close is very important, it is the market's second pricing for 'interest rate cuts', it is a confirmation of belief, and once it closes down, the market will associate it with anything unfavorable. Just like a well-known figure collapsing, once the filter is shattered, all subsequent information is negatively interpreted.
See original
The frenzy of short positions 🥳
At 92200 here 📍, conservatively it can reach 89000 tonight.
Those who are not greedy can give it a try, just place the stop loss at 93200.
On a whim, are you all daring enough to give it a small shot❓
#加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC
At 92200 here 📍, conservatively it can reach 89000 tonight.
Those who are not greedy can give it a try, just place the stop loss at 93200.
On a whim, are you all daring enough to give it a small shot❓
#加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC
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In the early morning, the Federal Reserve's slight shock to the world
—Limited impact, infinite details.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but it still brought a slight shock to the world—lowering interest rates is just a superficial action; what truly makes the market nervous is the pile of 'dark lines' behind it.
One good news (more money) diluted three bad news (widening differences, fewer future rate cuts, strong political pressure):
The first (good news) that surprised the market this time is the 'interest rate decision statement,' announcing the 'purchase of short-term government bonds' (which will buy about $40 billion of short-term bonds each month).
Although the Federal Reserve is trying to cover up, claiming this is not 'QE,' the market understood: the water is coming. History has proven that 'not QE' eventually turns into QE. Subsequently, the 'QE trade' was fully initiated: U.S. stocks rose across the board, U.S. government bonds surged (yields plummeted), gold stood above $4,200, and Bitcoin surged back to $94,000.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but it still brought a slight shock to the world—lowering interest rates is just a superficial action; what truly makes the market nervous is the pile of 'dark lines' behind it.
One good news (more money) diluted three bad news (widening differences, fewer future rate cuts, strong political pressure):
The first (good news) that surprised the market this time is the 'interest rate decision statement,' announcing the 'purchase of short-term government bonds' (which will buy about $40 billion of short-term bonds each month).
Although the Federal Reserve is trying to cover up, claiming this is not 'QE,' the market understood: the water is coming. History has proven that 'not QE' eventually turns into QE. Subsequently, the 'QE trade' was fully initiated: U.S. stocks rose across the board, U.S. government bonds surged (yields plummeted), gold stood above $4,200, and Bitcoin surged back to $94,000.
See original
On the eve of a turning point, one sentence can change the direction of the world.
——Everyone holds their breath for a day.
Less than 24 hours remain before the Federal Reserve announces a major decision, and Wall Street is pausing its big bets.
The U.S. stock market shows mixed results, gold prices hover around $4200, and Bitcoin hovers around $90,000——waiting for the Federal Reserve to make a decisive statement.
Yesterday's market performance gave the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver without having to worry too much about the market. However, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is nearing 4.2%——the market is already betting on the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish rate cut', actively pushing financial conditions tighter. The rate cut itself is not important; Powell's attitude is the most important. Is he willing to continue cutting? One sentence can change the direction of the world.
Less than 24 hours remain before the Federal Reserve announces a major decision, and Wall Street is pausing its big bets.
The U.S. stock market shows mixed results, gold prices hover around $4200, and Bitcoin hovers around $90,000——waiting for the Federal Reserve to make a decisive statement.
Yesterday's market performance gave the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver without having to worry too much about the market. However, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is nearing 4.2%——the market is already betting on the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish rate cut', actively pushing financial conditions tighter. The rate cut itself is not important; Powell's attitude is the most important. Is he willing to continue cutting? One sentence can change the direction of the world.
See original
News has come in
A piece of news has come in:
The Financial Times of the UK quoted two informed sources reporting that despite Trump's decision to allow the export of Nvidia's advanced H200 chips to China, China will still limit the use of these chips. The report stated that China has been discussing how to allow limited use of Nvidia's AI chip H200.
After this news was released, US stock futures fell to an intraday low. Nvidia's stock price rose as much as 2% in pre-market trading, but narrowed its gains after the Financial Times report was released, and the stock prices of AMD and Intel also narrowed their gains.
· First, the reason why US stocks were able to avoid amplifying the decline yesterday was largely due to the news of 'allowing the export of H200 chips to China'—but this news has reversed today. The US opens the door, while China locks it. It can be used, but not recklessly, not fully, and not on a large scale. The release of the H200 has limited significance for Nvidia. The real key is whether the US will allow Nvidia to export top chips like Blackwell and Rubin. Nvidia has risen 40% this year, far exceeding the 16% of the S&P 500—which means the market was already overly optimistic about Nvidia's 'outrageously good' future expectations. Any news that makes the market feel that its prospects are being 'interfered with by repeated ups and downs' will be magnified.
The Financial Times of the UK quoted two informed sources reporting that despite Trump's decision to allow the export of Nvidia's advanced H200 chips to China, China will still limit the use of these chips. The report stated that China has been discussing how to allow limited use of Nvidia's AI chip H200.
After this news was released, US stock futures fell to an intraday low. Nvidia's stock price rose as much as 2% in pre-market trading, but narrowed its gains after the Financial Times report was released, and the stock prices of AMD and Intel also narrowed their gains.
· First, the reason why US stocks were able to avoid amplifying the decline yesterday was largely due to the news of 'allowing the export of H200 chips to China'—but this news has reversed today. The US opens the door, while China locks it. It can be used, but not recklessly, not fully, and not on a large scale. The release of the H200 has limited significance for Nvidia. The real key is whether the US will allow Nvidia to export top chips like Blackwell and Rubin. Nvidia has risen 40% this year, far exceeding the 16% of the S&P 500—which means the market was already overly optimistic about Nvidia's 'outrageously good' future expectations. Any news that makes the market feel that its prospects are being 'interfered with by repeated ups and downs' will be magnified.
See original
Drop, Drop, Drop, Emergency Market Rescue Overnight
The market is rehearsing the 'worst-case scenario' in advance.
Monday was a frightening day for investors:
- The US stock market fell across the board, gold fell below $4200, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000, and US crude oil fell below the 50-day moving average to below $60. Although the overall decline is not large, it is concerning—US Treasury yields continue to rise, and they are rising alongside the dollar. This combination essentially indicates that investors are quickly withdrawing from 'risk assets.'
This decline is different from the past 'leaderless declines'; there are too many reasons for the market to fall.
· First, Japan's bond market plummeted, infecting the US Treasury bonds, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rising to 4.16%—continuing to approach recent peaks.
Monday was a frightening day for investors:
- The US stock market fell across the board, gold fell below $4200, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000, and US crude oil fell below the 50-day moving average to below $60. Although the overall decline is not large, it is concerning—US Treasury yields continue to rise, and they are rising alongside the dollar. This combination essentially indicates that investors are quickly withdrawing from 'risk assets.'
This decline is different from the past 'leaderless declines'; there are too many reasons for the market to fall.
· First, Japan's bond market plummeted, infecting the US Treasury bonds, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rising to 4.16%—continuing to approach recent peaks.
See original
Major Event Forecast
Next week, the Federal Reserve will enter its pre-meeting quiet period. Although most analysts are certain that there will be a 25 basis point rate cut on December 11, U.S. interest rate futures give about an 80% probability of a rate cut—the remaining 20% needs confirmation from economic data.
And next week will just happen to welcome a flood of data.
On Monday, the U.S. November ISM Manufacturing PMI (previous value: 48.7; market expectation: 49)
Market expectations will improve slightly, but continue to be in a contraction range. The manufacturing sector has been 'lying flat' for an entire year, and it is difficult to suddenly revive. As long as the results fluctuate in the 47–50 range, it can be considered 'no surprises, no excitement.' The real risk is if it suddenly jumps above 50, risk assets will become tense immediately. Because that represents an economic rebound, reducing the reason for interest rate cuts.
And next week will just happen to welcome a flood of data.
On Monday, the U.S. November ISM Manufacturing PMI (previous value: 48.7; market expectation: 49)
Market expectations will improve slightly, but continue to be in a contraction range. The manufacturing sector has been 'lying flat' for an entire year, and it is difficult to suddenly revive. As long as the results fluctuate in the 47–50 range, it can be considered 'no surprises, no excitement.' The real risk is if it suddenly jumps above 50, risk assets will become tense immediately. Because that represents an economic rebound, reducing the reason for interest rate cuts.
See original
Rescue the market, rescue the market, rescue the market!
The Federal Reserve collectively hinted: We will save you.
The global market is celebrating, with all assets including U.S. stocks, gold, U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, and Bitcoin rising, and not just slightly.
The keyword for Monday is only one: rescue the market.
The following are all in Beijing time:
20:40, before the U.S. stock market opened, Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in December, followed by decisions at successive meetings - this news caused the U.S. stock market to rise at the open.
22:31, as soon as the U.S. stock market opened, news of a China-U.S. call came out - the U.S. stock market expanded its gains.
23:30, the released data showed that the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in November was below all economists' expectations (increasing the probability of a rate cut) - the U.S. stock market's gains further expanded.
The global market is celebrating, with all assets including U.S. stocks, gold, U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, and Bitcoin rising, and not just slightly.
The keyword for Monday is only one: rescue the market.
The following are all in Beijing time:
20:40, before the U.S. stock market opened, Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in December, followed by decisions at successive meetings - this news caused the U.S. stock market to rise at the open.
22:31, as soon as the U.S. stock market opened, news of a China-U.S. call came out - the U.S. stock market expanded its gains.
23:30, the released data showed that the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in November was below all economists' expectations (increasing the probability of a rate cut) - the U.S. stock market's gains further expanded.
See original
Recently, these news articles have been all over the place.
If it really comes to a fight,
could it relieve many people from their current predicaments?
Or perhaps, for those of you who have been in debt for years👉
#美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC
If it really comes to a fight,
could it relieve many people from their current predicaments?
Or perhaps, for those of you who have been in debt for years👉
#美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC
See original
The first person to press the short button has finally surfaced
Recently, the main character in the US stock market is not Nvidia, not the Federal Reserve, but - Michael Burry is back (the one played by Christian Bale in 'The Big Short').
In the past, Burry was a trader: betting on the housing bubble, shorting against the trend, cold and rational.
Now, Burry is more like an 'emotional button': when he speaks, the market gets nervous; when he shorts, social media goes wild; when he appears, emotions are amplified; he no longer just influences prices, but narrative.
Last Thursday, Nvidia suddenly dropped from a 5% increase to a 3% decrease, causing the entire US stock market to plunge.
In the past, Burry was a trader: betting on the housing bubble, shorting against the trend, cold and rational.
Now, Burry is more like an 'emotional button': when he speaks, the market gets nervous; when he shorts, social media goes wild; when he appears, emotions are amplified; he no longer just influences prices, but narrative.
Last Thursday, Nvidia suddenly dropped from a 5% increase to a 3% decrease, causing the entire US stock market to plunge.
See original
The Federal Reserve sounds the alarm
The new Federal Reserve correspondent Nick Timiraos published an article titled (Powell is not the biggest obstacle to rate cuts), stating that even though Trump appointed a new Federal Reserve chairman, his desire for rate cuts next year is difficult to realize — because the power structure of the Federal Reserve is undergoing a historically significant transformation ('Changing the chairman = rate cuts' is the biggest misunderstanding).
The article is lengthy, but there are only two main points:
First, the December meeting may see three or more dissenting votes. The Federal Reserve may adopt an unprecedented decision-making approach in the future — completely relying on majority votes.
The article is lengthy, but there are only two main points:
First, the December meeting may see three or more dissenting votes. The Federal Reserve may adopt an unprecedented decision-making approach in the future — completely relying on majority votes.
See original
Federal Reserve, surrendered
—— This scene really has a bit of the flavor of 'the air suddenly went quiet, and then the Federal Reserve broke down first.'
Two hours before the U.S. stock market opened, the usually low-profile New York Fed President Williams (who has permanent voting rights) delivered a speech.
He stated that the upward risk of inflation has weakened, the downward risk facing employment has increased, and he still believes there is room for interest rate cuts in the short term.
After his speech, traders quickly raised their expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability for December to over 50% (it was 27% a day earlier).
First, his views on inflation, employment, and interest rates are completely opposite to the recent stance of the Federal Reserve. With this statement, the Federal Reserve has effectively stepped half a foot into the 'surrender channel.' It’s worth noting that Williams is the most stable, hawkish, and least inclined to 'provide support' within the Federal Reserve system. The fact that he has begun to hint at 'room for interest rate cuts in the short term' indicates a strategic retreat by the Federal Reserve.
Two hours before the U.S. stock market opened, the usually low-profile New York Fed President Williams (who has permanent voting rights) delivered a speech.
He stated that the upward risk of inflation has weakened, the downward risk facing employment has increased, and he still believes there is room for interest rate cuts in the short term.
After his speech, traders quickly raised their expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability for December to over 50% (it was 27% a day earlier).
First, his views on inflation, employment, and interest rates are completely opposite to the recent stance of the Federal Reserve. With this statement, the Federal Reserve has effectively stepped half a foot into the 'surrender channel.' It’s worth noting that Williams is the most stable, hawkish, and least inclined to 'provide support' within the Federal Reserve system. The fact that he has begun to hint at 'room for interest rate cuts in the short term' indicates a strategic retreat by the Federal Reserve.
See original
At 00:01, a crash, the world pressed the 'liquidation button'
Waking up from a deep sleep, a huge change, the entire world pressed the 'liquidation button.'
- U.S. stocks opened, Nasdaq up over 2%; U.S. stocks closed, Nasdaq down over 2% — just past 00:00, the crash began, marking the largest reversal since April. Meanwhile, crude oil and cryptocurrencies also plummeted, with Bitcoin falling well below $90,000.
Every trader is exploring the reasons behind it.
First, signs appeared after Nvidia announced its earnings on Thursday morning — U.S. stock futures did not have a habitual surge, only rising very modestly for an hour in early trading. If particularly good news cannot drive the market up, it usually means bad things are coming. From another perspective, the U.S. stock market has been rising on 'expectations of good news'; with Nvidia's strong earnings report, it means the good news has already been 'used up', and the audience has also left the stage. Nvidia's earnings report was not wrong, but the market can no longer 'digest good news'.
- U.S. stocks opened, Nasdaq up over 2%; U.S. stocks closed, Nasdaq down over 2% — just past 00:00, the crash began, marking the largest reversal since April. Meanwhile, crude oil and cryptocurrencies also plummeted, with Bitcoin falling well below $90,000.
Every trader is exploring the reasons behind it.
First, signs appeared after Nvidia announced its earnings on Thursday morning — U.S. stock futures did not have a habitual surge, only rising very modestly for an hour in early trading. If particularly good news cannot drive the market up, it usually means bad things are coming. From another perspective, the U.S. stock market has been rising on 'expectations of good news'; with Nvidia's strong earnings report, it means the good news has already been 'used up', and the audience has also left the stage. Nvidia's earnings report was not wrong, but the market can no longer 'digest good news'.
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5:00 AM, three shocks to the world
——From Wall Street to the streets where people walk their rabbits, everyone is betting on NVIDIA.
——NVIDIA: Sorry, I'm even more aggressive than you expected.
Beijing time 5:00 AM, NVIDIA announced the answer, and the market was shocked three times.
First surprise: The performance data itself is at a 'hacked level'.
· Third quarter revenue: 57.01 billion dollars, estimated to be 55.19 billion dollars
· Data center revenue: 51 billion dollars——Note, this revenue was 30 billion dollars a year ago. This is not growth; it's like opening Excel and adjusting the values to fit an 'exponential growth curve'.
——NVIDIA: Sorry, I'm even more aggressive than you expected.
Beijing time 5:00 AM, NVIDIA announced the answer, and the market was shocked three times.
First surprise: The performance data itself is at a 'hacked level'.
· Third quarter revenue: 57.01 billion dollars, estimated to be 55.19 billion dollars
· Data center revenue: 51 billion dollars——Note, this revenue was 30 billion dollars a year ago. This is not growth; it's like opening Excel and adjusting the values to fit an 'exponential growth curve'.
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