The Asia-Pacific stock market has seen a comprehensive decline, following the downward trend of the US stock market last Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Dow Jones Index have similar declines, while the Hang Seng Index and the Nasdaq Index also have comparable declines. However, gold and US stock futures rose during the Asian trading session, while the US dollar fell—indicating that the selling pressure triggered last Friday by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials has eased, and the market will soon shift its focus to non-farm data.
The decline in the Asia-Pacific stock market does not equal a new round of panic, but rather a 'passive alignment with the US stock market' (risk appetite being calibrated), and is essentially still a time zone effect. Asia-Pacific today has merely completed a 'correction,' without any acceleration of emotions or liquidity crunch.
The current market is 'holding back emotions, waiting for a bullet to drop'—non-farm data, not Fed speeches. What Fed officials say now is just noise in the short term; non-farm data is the variable that can determine 'market fate'.
Non-farm data will determine three things:
· First, whether the expectations for interest rate cuts in January and March are raised again;
· Second, is the US Treasury yield a 'false breakout' or a 'true retreat';
· Third, are risk assets entering 'high-level oscillation' or 'facing another round of risk release'?
The core forecast from institutions is roughly as follows:
October: +10,000
November: +55,000 (slightly above market expectations)
Three-month average: only about +60,000
In the past few years, this speed can only be considered 'not a recession', but definitely not a boom.
Compared to employment numbers, the Federal Reserve really cares about two things:
· Unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% in November. It is not a spike, but a 'gradual increase'. This fits a typical characteristic where the labor market is cooling down, but very slowly.
· Wages are expected to rise by 0.3% in October and 0.35% in November. Wages are neither out of control nor showing significant collapse. For inflation, this is a state of 'acceptable but uncomfortable'.
Powell said something at the recent press conference that carried a lot of weight: the current non-farm data may be 'overstating 60,000 jobs' each month.
If viewed through the Federal Reserve's 'internal adjustment', the 50,000 you see may be close to 0 in their eyes. From the Fed's perspective, the job market may be nearing 'zero growth'.
This is a non-farm report that 'looks at structure, not numbers', and it is expected that this report provides no evidence for 'immediate recession', but also does not support 'continued strength'. It will still not provide the certainty the market desires and will continue to be at a stage of 'Federal Reserve entanglement, market misjudgment'.#美联储降息 $BTC
